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ETF Global Opportunities

28 March 2019
     

Market Overview

 

The Short-term-composite is trading fairly neutral here and that means the equity market could go either way. The S&P 500 ETF, the SPY, is presently testing rising trend support. 

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  •  None

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.

  


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The Russell 2000 Index remains in its correction off the high from the second half of February. Momentum, the 14-day RSI, can still unwind further. 

With the relative ratio, versus the large caps, resuming its medium-term downtrend, longs should be avoided.

 

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Health Care Providers ETF are fast heading fast towards their start of the year low. The relative ratio has already broken lower, now at a 52-week low. With momentum not being oversold, weakness is expected to continue.

 

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The Europe 350 Index ETF has pulled back with in its 2019 rising channel. The 14-day RSI is at neutral, ticking up. The up trend will need to resume from here to avoid breaking up trend support.

 

 

 

 

Emerging Indices

 

The Latin America 40 Index fund is retreating, likely towards $30, as that would equal the depth of similar pull-backs during the medium-term uptrend. 

An underperformer, versus the U.S. equity market, since the start of the year.

 

 

 

 

Currencies

 

 The Euro Trust maintains a yearlong downtrend. New 52-week lows imminent. The 14-day RSI is not oversold. 

 

 

Commodities

 

The Gold fund remains in its 2019 sideways consolidation. Momentum is flat, in line with a sideways market. Watching for an uptrend resssertion eventually.

 

 

 

Bonds

 

The 7-10 year T-Bond fund is making new 52-week highs this week and momentum is not overbought. 

The 5 year chart of the IEF shows a break of the downtrend off the 2016 high. New medium-term uptrend is establishing.

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
28 Aug 2018 CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust FXF Long 95.85 93.3995 -2.56%
2 Nov 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Long 53.15 58.55 +10.16%
3 Jan 2019 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY Long 88.82 86.34 -2.79%
25 Jan 2019 iShares Brazil Index EWZ Long 43.82 39.28 -10.36%

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
20 Feb 2018 Agriculture DBA Short 18.98 16.71 +11.96%
17 May 2018 iShares Italy Index EWI Short 32.4 27.77 +14.29%
11 Oct 2018 US High Yield HYG Short 84.7 86.08 -1.63%
16 Oct 2018 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Short 158.64 151.27 +4.65%
25 Oct 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Short 66.98 65.97 +1.51%
20 Nov 2018 iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan EPP Short 41.71 45.21 -8.39%
6 Dec 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Financial XLF Short 25.6 25.42 +0.70%
13 Dec 2018 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Short 57.66 58.04 -0.66%
21 Dec 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Short 48.6 54.49 -12.12%
3 Jan 2019 iShares South Korea Index EWY Short 56.82 60.36 -6.23%
3 Jan 2019 iShares Mexico (free) Index EWW Short 41.79 43.49 -4.07%
27 Feb 2019 iShares DJ US Health Care Providers Fund IHF Short 176.39 164.97 +6.47%
27 Feb 2019 iShares Hong Kong Index EWH Short 25.87 25.72 +0.58%
28 Feb 2019 US 20+yrs TLT Short 120.28 126.12 -4.86%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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