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ETF Global Opportunities

13 March 2019
     

Market Overview

 

The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend but is returning towards the March 4th high. It is yet to be shown as to whether it can break higher. The Short-term-composite is showing a fairly neutral reading here.

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  • NASDAQ 100 - closing short
  • Technology (XLK) - closing short
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - closing short

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.

 

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The NASDAQ 100 ETF is pushing out to new 2019 highs. An attempt to clear resistance from the small peaks in October and November 2018 is underway. The P&F chart shows an over-extended column of Xs but that could continue back to the highs. We shall cover our short in the QQQ on the close.

 

 

The Russell 2000 Index has pulled back over the past two weeks and we shall cover our short on the weakness. Short-term support has been found from the 50-day exponential moving average.

 

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

 

As per the NASDAQ 100 ETF above, the Technology fund maintains its uptrend off the end of 2018 low. With the new 2019 high this afternoon, we shall exit the short trade.

 

 

 

The Industrial ETF is encountering resistance from the top end of its range over the past year. The relative P&F ratio shows medium-term underperformance. Longs should be avoided until a recovery prints.

 

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The Hong Kong Index is trending higher, heading towards the highs from May/June 2018. Momentum is not overbought. The P&F chart is one box away from a new all-time high.

 

 

 

Commodities

 

The Gold ETF is firming again following a pull-back into the 50-day exponential moving average. The relative trend, against the commodity basket, maintains its medium-term uptrend.

 

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
28 Aug 2018 CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust FXF Long 95.85 92.4 -3.60%
2 Nov 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Long 53.15 58.36 +9.80%
3 Jan 2019 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY Long 88.82 85.75 -3.46%
25 Jan 2019 iShares Brazil Index EWZ Long 43.82 43.28 -1.23%
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
20 Feb 2018 Agriculture DBA Short 18.98 16.33 +13.96%
17 May 2018 iShares Italy Index EWI Short 32.4 26.96 +16.79%
11 Oct 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Short 68.63 71.73 -4.52%
11 Oct 2018 US High Yield HYG Short 84.7 85.53 -0.98%
16 Oct 2018 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Short 158.64 154.37 +2.69%
25 Oct 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Short 66.98 65.32 +2.48%
2 Nov 2018 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Short 169.38 175.69 -3.73%
20 Nov 2018 iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan EPP Short 41.71 45.44 -8.94%
6 Dec 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Financial XLF Short 25.6 26.3 -2.73%
13 Dec 2018 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Short 57.66 59.96 -3.99%
21 Dec 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Short 48.6 55.72 -14.65%
3 Jan 2019 iShares South Korea Index EWY Short 56.82 61.64 -8.48%
3 Jan 2019 iShares Mexico (free) Index EWW Short 41.79 42.56 -1.84%
27 Feb 2019 iShares DJ US Health Care Providers Fund IHF Short 176.39 169.83 +3.72%
27 Feb 2019 iShares Hong Kong Index EWH Short 25.87 25.85 +0.08%
28 Feb 2019 US 20+yrs TLT Short 120.28 122.06 -1.48%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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