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ETF Global Opportunities

11 April 2019
     

Market Overview

 

The ratio between the Short Term Composite and the S&P 500 ETF shows both are at the top end of their yearlong ranges. The indicator is overbought and the SPY itself is close to resistance from the 2018 peak. 

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  • None.

 

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The DJ Select Dividend Index ETF is testing the peak from March as well as round numbr $100. There is a bearish divegence on the 14-day RSI and that will need to correct.

 

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Energy ETF has encountered resistance from its 200-day exponential moving average and is starting to show signs of failure. With the relative ratio remaining in a long-term downtrend, we continue to avoid longs.

 

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The Germany Index ETF has encountered resistance at its 200-day exponential moving average, as well as $28. A make or break point. 

 

 

 

 

Emerging Indices

 

The South Africa Index is testing its high from the end of January. Breaking higher from here would confirm a medium-term bottom. However, momentum is overbought, so the price may need to consolidate first. 

 

  

 

 

 

Commodities

 

The Gold fund remains in its tightening consolidation of the past two months. The pause in the medium-term uptrend is occurring across the 50-day exponential moving average. 

 

 

Bonds

 

The 7-10 year T-Bond fund looks to be reasserting its uptrend following its recent unwinding. The 14-day RSI is turning up from neutral, perfectly positioned for the resumption. 

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
28 Aug 2018 CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust FXF Long 95.85 92.7012 -3.29%
2 Nov 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Long 53.15 57.65 +8.47%
3 Jan 2019 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY Long 88.82 85.91 -3.28%
25 Jan 2019 iShares Brazil Index EWZ Long 43.82 42.25 -3.58%
4 Apr 2019 iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan EPP Long 46.8 46.9 +0.21%

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
20 Feb 2018 Agriculture DBA Short 18.98 16.85 +11.22%
17 May 2018 iShares Italy Index EWI Short 32.4 28.12 +13.21%
11 Oct 2018 US High Yield HYG Short 84.7 86.7 -2.36%
16 Oct 2018 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Short 158.64 157.31 +0.84%
25 Oct 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Short 66.98 67.33 -0.52%
6 Dec 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Financial XLF Short 25.6 26.49 -3.48%
13 Dec 2018 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Short 57.66 61.06 -5.90%
3 Jan 2019 iShares South Korea Index EWY Short 56.82 63.49 -11.74%
3 Jan 2019 iShares Mexico (free) Index EWW Short 41.79 46.61 -11.53%
27 Feb 2019 iShares DJ US Health Care Providers Fund IHF Short 176.39 170.7 +3.23%
27 Feb 2019 iShares Hong Kong Index EWH Short 25.87 26.87 -3.87%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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