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US Stock Service
Daily Hotline
 
13 October 2014    By John Gray
Market Action
  • US stocks ended a wild week with more losses Friday. The DJ I erased its gains for the year but the real action was the second 2% drop for the NASDAQ Comp, as tech shares (and chip stocks in particular) tumbled. The primary averages are now down more than 5% from their highs and show tests of 200 day MA technical support. The smaller stock index losses exceed 10% from their highs. Transportation shares were also hit hard again and traders sought safety in utilities, with new buy signals for those indexes. Their charts also ended just below highs.
  • All averages were also down for the week even after the strongest one-day gain this year. The DJ Industrials swung more than 1000 points. Friday's advance-decline reading was better than the prior day but volume increased, pointing to more institutional selling.
  • In addition to declines on every index chart the oscillating indicators all moved lower. The close showed universal bear confirmed status but also oversold reading including many new multiyear lows. Many of those charts moved down, up and back down last week. That action lowers bull confirmed buy levels on their P&F charts.
  • Worldwide economic data remains negative while the improving US readings make our market the focus for funds around the world. However the Fed changes remain a concern and new external factors such as the Ebola breakout and upcoming election means the short term trading should remain choppy for a bit more. We look for chart bases to form near the current levels over the next few weeks and then a tradable rebound.
Market Drivers
  • A warning of falling demand from the Microchip Tech contributed to a broad semiconductor stock sell off Friday, with the SOX down 7%. MCHP is considered to be an indicator for that industry due to their very conservative reporting of sales.
  • The Philly Fed President said their duel mandate was becoming harder to accomplish, raising some concern of rate changes sooner than the FOMC minutes projected just the day before.
  • The prospects of slower growth outside the US continued to depress crude prices, which dropped below $84 intraday Friday. The editor's weekend drive from southern Virginia to NY saw gasoline as low at $2.85/gal. Lower heating costs in the Northeast will also have positive spending impacts.
Technical Outlook
  • Nearly every index chart shows a sell signal. Indicators are also bear confirmed and oversold, with many multiyear lows. That is always the case at a market bottom. A correction is underway and new attempts at building bases should occur over the next few weeks. The oscillator indicator chart swings have lower long term buy stops. Now watch for stocks and indexes to form bases with the same chart action. Consolidation may include some lower lows but we expect a rebound to start by the end of the month, or just after.
Portfolios
  • Large Caps 80% invested, Mid Caps 60% and Small Caps 45%.
  • Bear Portfolio is 0% short.
 Indicators
Short Term Medium Term
II Short Term Composite Indicator
3.4% (-13.80%)
Bear Confirmed
NYSE %10 Week Moving Average
13.77% (-2.64)
Bear Confirmed
II Short Term Sector Sum
-38.00 (-0.50)
Bearish
New P&F Signals: US Breakouts
  Close 1-Day Change
Bulls 11 +3
Bears 145 +94
NYSE Bullish % Indicator
43.3% (-2.65%)
Bear Confirmed
NYSE %30 Week Moving Average
23.01% (-4.34)
Bear Confirmed
II Long Term Composite Indicator
-153.5% (+7.00)
Bearish

 

  • The short term composite reversed down, hitting its sell stop for bear confirmed status.
  • All five % 10-wk MA charts moved down, breaking their last bottoms for new lows.
  • Stock sell signals jumped above the 1-Oct reading. That capitulation could mean a market low is near. The sector sum value is near long term bottom levels.

 

 

  • All broad area bullish % charts move down. The NASDAQ Comp joined the NYSE with a break of long term support.
  • All % 30-wk MA charts fell with large changes than the short term MAs.
  • The daily NYSE cumulative advance decline line chart fell through its sell stop.

 

Index Trends
  Close Volume 1-Day Change P&F Signals Support
  Signal Trend Start Date Trend Reversal  
DJ Industrials 16,544.1 93.2m -115.15 -0.7% Bear Down 10 Oct 2014 17,100.00 16312.7
S&P 500 Index 1,906.13 604.8m -22.08 -1.1% Bear Down 25 Sep 2014 1,970.00 1904.78/1925.25
NASDAQ Comp. 4,276.24 561.5m -102.10 -2.3% Bear Down 25 Sep 2014 4,480.00 4321.89/4355.34
NASDAQ 100 3,870.86 200.7m -98.47 -2.5% Bear Down 1 Oct 2014 4,060.00 3837.16/3934.94
S&P Midcap 400 1,304.59 168.4m -23.03 -1.7% Bear Down 22 Sep 2014 1,360.00  
Russell 2000 Index 1,053.32 351.9m -14.67 -1.4% Bear Down 22 Sep 2014 1,100.00  
Closing prices through Friday October 10, 2014

Chart Activity - Broad Index Moves 


The NYSE averages moderated their losses Friday but the NASDAQ Comp fell 2.3%, exceeding its Thursday decline. All indexes were down for the week with the primary areas down more than 5% from their highs and the smaller stock average losses now exceeding 10%. Friday saw the DJI, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Comp lows right at 200 day moving average support.

As we noted Friday, the Thursday chart gains were all aborted with new reversals down. Every chart declined with sell signals shown. Smaller stock indexes continue to underperform with the Russell 2000 at a low since Nov-13. The long term [100 pts] DJ I hit its sell stop as every chart at least penetrated its last bottom. The NASDAQ Comp P&F chart shows a test of long term support along with the Value Line Comp and in negative action the NYSE Comp broke its uptrend line, from its Nov-12 low.

Chart Activity - Sector Indexes 

Lower fuels costs couldn't offset the negative demand potential of slower world economies, sending the DJ T down another 2%. It ended down 9% from its high. Fear also moved buyers to utilities, with new buy signals for the DJ U and Utility UTY charts. Each is also just below its high. Seven of the 10 S&P 500 Sector charts declined, Utility and Telecom were steady and Consumer Staples rose one-box. All sector charts also fell, with the Semiconductor SOX down 7%! The Biotech BTK was an exception with a small new move up.

Chart Activity - Commodites 

Spot gold ended last week with just a small change. The chart held at X $1230. It is rebounding from O $1190, a low last seen at its end of 2013 bottom. A new floor may be signaled. Both gold index [XAU & HUI] charts reversed down but remained above their last lows to signal basing action. The Precious Metals bullish % had a bear confirmed status shift on 30-Sep and is now deeply oversold.

Crude oil fell below $84 at its Friday low, dropping the chart to O $84. That is a low since Jul-12. The chart is now down 10-boxes. The energy indexes also remain weak with each dropping further. The Oil Service OSX ended at a 15-month low. The Oil XOI shows a 7-month low.



 

Index Breadth
% 10 Week Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 13.77 -2.64 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
Nasdaq Composite 18.02 -2.74 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
S&P 500 20.52 -4.83 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
Nasdaq 100 16.16 -12.12 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
Option Stocks 13.71 -3.25 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
% 30 Week Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 23.01 -4.34 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
Nasdaq Composite 24.89 -4.17 Bear Confirmed 25 Sep 2014
S&P 500 36.42 -7.64 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
Nasdaq 100 35.35 -18.19 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
Option Stocks 23.27 -5.33 Bear Confirmed 9 Oct 2014
Bullish % Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 43.3 -2.65 Bear Confirmed 1 Aug 2014
Nasdaq Composite 41.65 -3.27 Bear Confirmed 1 Aug 2014
S&P 500 53.32 -4.23 Bear Confirmed 2 Oct 2014
Nasdaq 100 46.46 -15.16 Bear Confirmed 2 Oct 2014
Option Stocks 45.01 -3.85 Bear Confirmed 23 Sep 2014

Breadth Indicators oscillate between overbought highs, at 70% and above, and oversold lows, at 30% or lower.
The % 10-week moving average is short term, % 30-week moving average intermediate, and the bullish %s are longer term.

Short-term:

All indexes fell again Friday and although the advance-decline readings improved they remained negative. Again, every daily moving average breadth value was lower along with each chart. Bear confirmed status holds and new lows were also achieved. That aborted the double and triple bottom formations shown on the five short term % 10-wk MA charts with most ending at multiyear lows. That delays any rally with new basing action now needed to support the next positive. It may take until month end. The deeper the drops the stronger the ultimate rallies, when they occur.

Medium-term:

The five % 30-wk MA charts extended their declines, and each change was larger than for its short term MA. Prior 2014 lows have given way and three are well into oversold territory. They will also need to stabilize before any rebounds can occur.

Long-term:

Friday's index drops were smaller than on Thursday but the number of stock sells jumped to 145, just above the count of 129 sells from 1-Oct. Every broad area bullish % chart fell with the NASDAQ Comp following the NYSE through their long term uptrend line support. That is another bad sign for a near term rally.  

Current outlook:

Friday's action of breaking prior lows on the short moving average breadth indicators was negative, as was the larger drops on the % 30-wk MA charts compared with the 10-wk MA action. It suggests the downside momentum is still strong and until the selling pressures eases the market can't rally. Be patient as it will occur. Our current estimate is late October. All charts can now show bull confirmed breakouts at low levels.


 

Indicators
  Close Change Chart Direction Chart Status Chart Action
Short term Composite Indicator 3.4 -13.80 Falling Bearish Reversal Down
NYSE High-Low Index 15.58 -1.10 Falling Bearish Lower
Nasdaq High-Low Index 15.1 -1.90 Falling Bearish Lower
NYSE On Balance Volume (by DJIA) 278,257 -949.00 Falling Bearish Lower
NYSE On Balance Volume (by breadth) 536,655 -948.00 Falling Bearish Reversal Down
Nasdaq on Balance Volume by Composite 491.99 -2.75 Falling Bearish Lower
Nasdaq on Balance Volume by Breadth 31.62 -2.75 Falling Bearish Lower
NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline 398,529 -1810.00 Falling Bearish Lower
NYSE Money Flow Index 40,509.1 (weekly) Falling Bearish None
  • Friday's additional losses moved most indicator charts lower, with new short tern bearish shifts postponing a market rebound. Oversold conditions are clear but until the selling pressure ends a recovery will not occur.
  • As expected, rising index charts all reversed down. That caused a quick pullback for the daily short term composite chart that aborted its positive low pole formation. Thursday's value was revised to 17.2% (X 16 on the chart). It fell below its last low. A base is forming that included a multi-year low at O 2%. A triple-top buy would now occur at X 18%.
  • Both medium term daily high low ratio charts moved lower. They hold sells at oversold multiyear lows. The number of new 52-wk lows jumped to the highest level this year.
  • All four daily on-balance-volume charts also declined, including new reversals down. All four show sell signals.
  • The medium term daily NYSE cumulative advance decline line chart moved down two-boxes. It moved through the stoploss at O 400,000 for bearish status. Its reading is below its 10-days ago level for another sign of momentum loss.  

 

Industry Bullish %s and Sector Sum
Daily Industry Groups Bullish %s: Friday's NASDAQ led decline included a jump in stock sell signals to 145, above the 1-Oct count of 129. That may mean new capitulation. The increase in negative action was reflected by the sectors indicators, with 27 of the 46 broad area industry groups bullish %s charts moving down. There was one significant status shift on a drop below 70% and another group entered oversold territory. Only 2 for the 46 charts still point up. The Bell Curve is now skewed well to the left side of 50%. That is becoming attractive for longs. Semiconductors fell 19%.

The sum holds its 11-July short term bearish status shift. It now shows a long term P&F sell signal that fulfilled the forecast of the prior high pole formation. It is still above its April low at -25.0. The sector sum value fell to -38.0, near historic lows.

The sector sum short term status is determined by its chart direction, along with the direction of the groups cumulative advance decline line and the last three day's direction on the NYSE bullish %. The sum chart reversed down 8-Jul and on 11-Jul the A-D line followed to complete the negative shift. The NYSE bullish % already had three down days. The sum chart hit its long term sell stop on 30-Sep, ending the buy from 30-May. That signal was already aborted by the last Jul high pole.
 


Sector Bullish% P&F Charts Lower:  
 
Sector
Bullish %
Comment
Airlines/Aerospace
40%
Holds bear confirmed.
Asia/Pacific
60%
Holds bear alert.
Autos & Parts
28%
Holds bear confirmed.
Banks
60%
Holds bear confirmed.
Biotech
28%
Holds bear confirmed.
Buildings
26%
Holds bear confirmed.
Chemicals
26%
Holds bear confirmed.
China
30%
Holds bear confirmed. Now oversold.
Computers
42%
Holds bear confirmed.
Drugs
52%
Holds bear confirmed.
Electronics
36%
Holds bear confirmed.
Energy- Other
 8%
Holds bear confirmed.
ETFs
58%
Holds bear confirmed.
Europe
38%
Holds bear confirmed.
Internet
32%
Holds bear confirmed.
Insurance
68%
Shifts to bear alert. Left overbought.
Leisure
38%
Holds bear confirmed.
Machinery/Tools
18%
Holds bear confirmed.
Media
24%
Holds bear confirmed.
Oill/Coal
18%
Holds bear confirmed.
Oil Service
22%
Holds bear confirmed.
Semiconductors
32%
Holds bear confirmed.
Software
44%
Holds bear confirmed.
Telephone
40%
Holds bear confirmed.
Transport- Non Air
32%
Holds bear confirmed.
Utility- Gas
46%
Holds bear confirmed.
Wall Street
48%
Holds to bear confirmed.


Sector Sum Indicator:
                      
Short term P&F chart status
 
Bearish
Value
    -38.0
Change yesterday
     -0.5
Last reversal
22-Sep down to -19.0
Short term stop
     -35.0
Long Term P&F chart status
Bearish
Last long term signal
P&F chart Sell at -23.0 on 30-Sep
Long term P&F stop loss
Potential bullish at -15.0
Last major resistance (& date)
+45.0 (Feb 12 highs)
Last major support (& date)
-46.5 (Sep 11 lows)
 

Sector P&F chart direction:
 
Total number of sectors
46
Last signal Down, # of rising groups
 2
Trigger for bullish  status   
 5
Sector charts overbought
0
Sectors charts oversold
14



 


 

Stock Action

The NYSE bullish % value was down 2.65% Friday. It has shown only one positive change (3-Oct) since 4-Sep. Its short term momentum shifted negative after three falling sessions and will remain negative until there are three consecutive higher readings. It closed at 43.30%. The chart shows O 44%, now breaking major support. The NASDAQ Comp bullish % fell to O 42%, also penetrating its uptrend line.

 

Sector Action

The Semiconductor Bullish % experienced a massive decline of 19% on Friday. The chart was already “bear confirmed” and the drop moved trading from 50% all the way down to the top end of oversold. Basing would now be expected down here.

Tickers for sell signals on Friday were UCTT, NANO, LRCX, KLIC, KLAC, IMOS, MPWR, AMBA, SIMG, RMBS, PXLW, NVDA, SIMO, ARMH, BRCM, CODE, ALTR, TXN, STM, MXIM, MU, ISIL, IMOS and IDTI. Many of the moves show corrections of the 2013/14 rallies. TXN holds its uptrend off the 2009 low and the move Friday, in this case a drop of 7.1%, appears just to be a natural pull-back. Therefore at this stage and given the oversold condition of the general market, we would see the weakness as an opportunity to add outperformers from the group.

 

 

 

 

 

Glossary
Index Breadth
These indicators measure the breadth of trends within a particular index and are best known for their use as "contrary indicators" and valuable tools for market timing. They work on the principle that once virtually all members of a particular stock index are participating in the same market movement then there is a strong probability that this market movement will come to an end in the near future. This phenomenon of over-extended trend conditions is classified as being "overbought" or "oversold”. It is a good sign when both the stock market averages and the breadth are moving up in conjunction. When the averages are moving higher, but the breadth is declining, it is said that the “generals” are advancing, but the “soldiers” are retreating. This is a negative situation most of the time. It is a negative sign when both the market averages and breadth are moving down. In some markets, breadth is stronger than the averages. This means the average stock is doing better than the averages. This is a pretty good sign, but not as good as when both of them are doing well.

Industry Breadth
These indicators follow the same methodology to index breadth but measure the percentage of stocks within a particular sector or industry that hold bull trends. They are useful for identifying potential rotation between sectors i.e. reducing exposure to sectors where breadth is overbought and declining and increasing exposure to sectors where breadth is oversold and expanding.

Types of Breadth Indicator
The first breadth indicator, the NYSE Bullish %, was developed by Investors Intelligence in 1955, and measures the percentage of point & figure bull trends amongst NYSE constituents. Since then, we have developed indicators which measure bull trends or uptrends using different techniques. They are defined as follows:

Bullish % or % Bull Trends
– every point & figure stock chart has either a buy or a sell signal. This is a major advantage to technical analysis and is entirely mechanical. The bullish % is the number of stocks on “buy” signals compared to the total for the groups. When most stocks are on sell signals, the bullish % is low. It is a positive sign when the bull % begins to improve. It is negative when the bull % turns down from highs. We also consider whether the P&F chart is in an up or down column. If the bullish % is on a P&F buy signal and in an up column, it is long term and short term bullish. If the P&F chart is on a buy signal and in a down column, it is long term bullish, but short term bearish. If the P&F chart is on a sell signal and in a down column, it is long and short term bearish. If the P&F chart is on a sell signal and in an up column, it is long term bearish, but short term bullish.

% 10 Week Moving Averages
– this indicator reflects the percentage of individual shares in a group above their own 10 week moving average. The fewer the number of component stocks per sector or market, the more volatile the indicator. It uses overbought (70% & higher) and oversold (30% & lower) as target levels for rallies and declines. Reversals from overbought or oversold that break those levels are strong calls for action, with a stronger indication if a p&f signal is shown.

% 30 Week Moving Averages
– this indicator calculates the percentage of stocks in a given area that are above their own 30 week moving average. This gives an indication of medium to longer term overbought (above 68%) or oversold (below 32%) conditions, and always trails the % 10-wk MA in movement. Like the 10-week, the best action is when the indicator moves up from below 30% as this is a longer term sign that the market is ready to begin a sustainable advance. Conversely, the market becomes bearish when it moves down below 70%, signalling that the market is ready for a significant down move.

% Relative Strength
– this indicator measures the % of stocks with positive relative strength against the S&P500 index i.e. the number of shares that are in outperforming trends
 
US VOLUME INDICATORS
These indicators are constructed using the total number shares traded daily to compile a cumulative total that is plotted on a p&f chart. Each day’s direction (whether to add or subtract to that day’s volume) can be determined by any number of factors. We plot two charts each for the NYSE and NASDAQ. We plot one chart using the daily breath [up or down] as a determinate, and secondly we use the change in the DJIA and NASDAQ Composite (up or down at the close). The plotted OBV charts show p&f buy and sell signals and are used to confirm other indicators, adding weight when the signals match up.

NYSE OBV (by DJIA):
Updated daily; cumulative total of NYSE volume using the DJIA Close (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NYSE & NASDAQ OBV (by breadth):
Updated daily; cumulative total of NYSE & NASDAQ volume using the day’s breadth reading (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NASDAQ OBV (by Composite):
Updated daily; cumulative total of NASDAQ volume using the day’s NASDAQ Composite close (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NYSE 10 day Up/Down Volume
: Updated daily; a 10-day moving average of NYSE upside volume divided by the total upside and downside volume.

NYSE Money-Flow:
Updated weekly; money moving into or out of stocks, based upon dollar value of shares traded on the upside and the downside, weighted to most recent action.
 
US HIGH/LOW INDICATORS
These ratios give daily comparisons of upside breadth and volume, compared to total “up and down” of each. They are plotted on a 1-point p&f chart that allows for faster movement. They do NOT achieve traditional overbought or oversold levels, and we observe reversals from prior top and bottom levels. The reversals from extremes are NOT tradable by themselves, but provide early clues of potential reversals areas. When they are confirmed by the Short Term Composite, there should be a tradable reaction.

NYSE, NASDAQ & ASE High Low:
Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE, NASDAQ & ASE stocks showing new 52-week highs divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.
 
NYSE Weekly High Low: Updated weekly; a ratio of the number of NYSE stocks showing new 52-week highs in a Monday-Friday week, divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-week moving average. Used for confirmation of the daily figure.
 
Bond High Low: Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE Corporate Bonds showing new 52-week highs divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.

US ADVANCE/DECLINE INDICATORS
Each day, the number of declining stocks is subtracted from the number of advancing stocks for each exchange, with the result is added to the prior day’s total. This yields a running, cumulative total that we plot on p&f charts. A short term momentum signal is also derived by comparing the current figure and that show 10 sessions ago. Positive momentum is shown if it is above, negative momentum if it is below, BUT at least two consecutive sessions are needed in the opposite direction to indicate a shift.
 
NYSE 10 Day Adv/Dec: Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE advancing stocks divided by the total advancing and declining, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.
 
NYSE & NASDAQ Cum Adv/Dec: Updated daily; the cumulative total of the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining NYSE & NASDAQ stocks. A short term momentum signal is derived by comparing the current figure with that shown 10 sessions ago.

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE’S PROPRIETARY COMPOSITE INDICATORS
The II Short Term Composite Indicator: this is a proprietary indicator generated from scores awarded to 29 market indicators (unweighted) and is only concerned with the most recent action. The Indicator oscillates between values of 0 and 100 and provides the first indication of short term moves. Typically, it detects potential up moves from “oversold” readings and down moves from overbought readings. Confirmation from the NYSE % 10-wk indicates a broadly tradable move, otherwise it is for the very short term.

The II Sector Sum Indicator:
this is a proprietary indicator that scores the daily status of 45 Broad Industry Bullish % charts, each designated a possible value of -1 to +1. The ranking depends on chart status (+1 bull confirm or correction; +0.5 bull alert; 0 bull top; -0.5 bear alert; -1 bear confirm or correction). The sum is plotted on a 1-pt/box p&f chart. It generates early warnings of trend change from extreme readings. While on a buy or sell from extremes, reversals up or down will confirm short term potential moves in the opposite direction, already signalled by the short term composite.

The II Long Term Composite Indicator:
this is a proprietary indicator generated from the scores awarded to over forty indicators. These indicators have been selected across a wide range of disciplines covering index trends, breadth, sentiment, money-flow and financial/economic factors. The scores awarded to each indicator are weighted to create an indicator that generates signals at market extremes i.e. buy signals at market bottoms and sell signals at market tops. It became apparent to us that we needed to apply more emphasis on leading indicators and therefore weightings are dependent on each indicator’s predictive value rather than its trend following capability.
    
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