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US Stock Service
Daily Hotline
 
21 July 2014    By John Gray
Market Action
  • After reacting negatively to world news Thursday, traders refocused on the business of Wall Street Friday allowing strong corporate financials to power a strong rebound. The advance wiped out much of the prior day losses despite the growing signs pointing to Russian complicity in the airliner shoot-down and increased fighting in Gaza.
  • The S&P 500 had its second straight move larger than 1% and the NASDAQ Comp and Russell 2000 each rallied more than 1.5%. They led on the downside with a push from Yellen's overvaluation comment and the Russell had a quick 6.7% pullback from its high. The Friday advance decline reading also reversed the prior day collapse but the lower volume meant large traders were not convinced conditions were ripe for new buying. The world news did not improve over the weekend.
  • The session got an initial push from Google (+4.2%) which beat top and bottom line forecasts even as ad rates continued to drop. Honeywell also had good news and another regional bank continued the trend of positive results from financial shares.
  • Many index charts reversed up and only the smaller stock averages had weakened enough for trading sell signals. The large-cap NYSE focused index charts remained at their highs. Short term moving average support is intact for all but the volatile small stock indexes. They broke their 50-day MAs and then attempted to recover those levels at week's end.
  • After broad indicator weakness Thursday there were only a few upturns. Those were on the short term % 10-wk MA chart and did not include new bullish signals for the NYSE and NASDAQ. Additionally the short term composite failed to show a confirmed reversal up of its own. The overall call for caution holds with the market uptrend still under pressure.
Market Drivers
  • There was no clarification of the Ukraine airline tragedy. Suspicion is of course that the Russian backed separatists were responsible. However so far Europe hasn't even issued a strong condemnation of Putin and they are even more reluctant to punish them with sanctions they would likely impact their own nations.
  • Fighting also continued in Gaza with growing images of destruction.
  • In addition to the good Friday Q2 results there was an unexpected drop in Consumer Sentiment reported by the Univ of Mich. It was the third month of lower expectations. The near term inflation outlook rose to 3.3%.
Technical Outlook
  • Friday's market recovery still left many indicator charts calling for caution at the minimum. The short term indicators turned negative after the 4-Jul weekend and on Thursday the NYSE and NASDAQ % 10-wk MA charts fell below 50%. They remained bear confirmed but their tumbles from June overbought highs had achieved the mid-point levels that allow for at least consolidating pauses. Some regrouping is the best to hope for. The recent retreat from highs has included lots of sector rotation with some areas declining much more than 10%. Oversold levels have still not been approached. Caution and defense should remain as the focus. It is not yet time for broad new buying.
Portfolios
  • Large Caps 45% invested, Mid Caps 40% and Small Caps 25%.
  • Bear Portfolio is 80% short.
 Indicators
Short Term Medium Term
II Short Term Composite Indicator
39.7% (+1.80%)
Bear Confirmed
NYSE %10 Week Moving Average
56.41% (+9.42)
Bear Correction
II Short Term Sector Sum
-7.00    (n/c)
Bearish
New P&F Signals: US Breakouts
Close 1-Day Change
Bulls 4 -2
Bears 7 -24
NYSE Bullish % Indicator
66.63% (-0.10%)
Bear Correction
NYSE %30 Week Moving Average
67.91% (+4.82)
Bear Alert
II Long Term Composite Indicator
+8.00      (-56.50)
Bearish
  • The short term composite chart was steady and negative, with a close buy stop at X 46%.
  • All five broad area % 10-wk MA charts reversed up. The NYSE and NASDAQ indicators did not achieve new positive status.
  • Daily stock breakout activity slowed considerably but still ended negative.

  • None of the medium term indicator charts rebounded Friday.
  • The already bearish long-term term composite (computed from Thursday's close) chart dropped to the same level as its May low. That must hold for the markets to rally broadly from here.
Index Trends
  Close Volume 1-Day Change P&F Signals Support
Signal Trend Start Date Trend Reversal
DJ Industrials 17,100.2 99.3m +123.37 +0.7% Bull Up 3 Apr 2014 16,300.00 16312.7/16703.7
S&P 500 Index 1,978.22 542.0m +20.10 +1.0% Bull Up 22 Apr 2014 1,860.00 1944.69/1952.86
NASDAQ Comp. 4,432.15 509.6m +68.70 +1.6% Bull Up 12 May 2014 4,340.00 4284.53/4351.04
NASDAQ 100 3,939.89 203.7m +61.89 +1.6% Bull Up 12 May 2014 3,860.00 3751.69/3837.16
S&P Midcap 400 1,412.73 128.7m +17.38 +1.2% Bear Up 10 Jul 2014 1,425.00
Russell 2000 Index 1,151.61 257.4m +18.01 +1.6% Bear Up 10 Jul 2014 1,215.00
Closing prices through Friday July 18, 2014
Chart Activity - Broad Index Moves 
Nearly every average rallied more than 1% Friday, quickly reversing their Thursday losses despite the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. The S&P 500 had its second consecutive larger than 1% change after trading 62 sessions without such action. The advance-decline data also reversed the Thursday losses but volume fell. That suggested institutional traders were not yet convinced. The session did show leadership amongst stocks bettered after Yellen's comments and some sectors already show large corrections.

The broad rebounds reversed many index charts up from their prior day lows. However the short term [50 pts/box] DJ I chart hit a new high early Thursday and it had a three-box retreat to end the week. There were reversals up for the NASDAQ Comp and NASDAQ 100, with the latter ending with a double top high. The NASDAQ Comp aborted its sell alert formation. Other upturns for the Value Line Comp, Russell 2000, S&P Mid-Cap and S&P Small-Cap charts left them holding sell signals, with only the latter recovering enough for a new low pole.


The long term [100 pts/box] DJ I, S&P 500 and S&P 100 charts have still avoided reversals down from highs achieved 3-Jul. The AMEX Comp XAX chart shows a double top. The NYSE Comp and IBD Mutual Fund charts held retreats from their highs.

Chart Activity - Sector Indexes 

The DJ Transportation Average held at its last Wednesday record high at X 8400. The Utility Indexes held above high pole retreats. The only upturns Friday were on the Drug DRG, Biotech BTK and Semiconductor SOX charts. The latter two held Thursday's trading sell signals.

Chart Activity - Commodities 

Gold prices ended Friday at $1311. They pulled back $8 after gaining $20 on Thursday. Neither session moved the chart. It held at O $1300, retreating from X $1340 and a test of technical resistance from the Mar-14 high at $1390. A high pole formation would occur at O $1290. The two gold indexes [XAU & HUI] were steady, holding their Thursday upturns after gains of 2%. They still remain overall weak.

Crude prices ended the week just above $103 after trading as low as $99.01.  The chart fell to O $100 and then reversed up to X $103, bouncing off technical support. It still holds a bearish high pole formation and the stoploss is now O $99. Neither energy index [OSX & XOI] chart rallied on the news. In fact the XOI reversed down and ended just above a trading sell signal.


Index Breadth

% 10 Week Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 56.41 +9.42 Bear Correction 18 Jul 2014
Nasdaq Composite 45.84 +8.23 Bear Correction 18 Jul 2014
S&P 500 70.08 +12.05 Bull Confirmed 18 Jul 2014
Nasdaq 100 76.77 +8.08 Bull Confirmed 18 Jul 2014
Option Stocks 56.18 +11.38 Bear Correction 18 Jul 2014
% 30 Week Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 67.91 +4.82 Bear Alert 15 Jul 2014
Nasdaq Composite 52.28 +4.94 Bull Correction 8 Jul 2014
S&P 500 83.33 +4.82 Bull Top 17 Jul 2014
Nasdaq 100 82.83 +5.05 Bull Top 17 Jul 2014
Option Stocks 67.65 +6.47 Bear Alert 15 Jul 2014
Bullish % Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 66.63 -0.10 Bear Correction 4 Mar 2014
Nasdaq Composite 56.47 -0.17 Bear Correction 9 Jun 2014
S&P 500 79.12 -0.40 Bull Confirmed 13 May 2014
Nasdaq 100 68.69 n/c Bull Confirmed 21 May 2014
Option Stocks 69.71 -0.09 Bull Confirmed 10 Jun 2014
Breadth Indicators oscillate between overbought highs, at 70% and above, and oversold lows, at 30% or lower.
The % 10-week moving average is short term, % 30-week moving average intermediate, and the bullish %s are longer term.

Short-term:

Just as Thursday's plunge produced large losses for the daily moving average breadth values the solid Friday rebound caused large gains. In some case they retraced the entire prior declines. All short term MA charts reversed up but the medium term indicators missed similar turns of their own. That means we are not yet out of the woods. The five short term % 10% MA chart reversals included two returning to overbought bull confirmed readings, with the S&P 500 bouncing from support. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are still more than 10% below their recent highs. The NYSE and NASDAQ Comp ended long vertical drops below 50%. The NYSE equaled its two May lows. Both charts remain bearish signaling only a pause in their declines. Both charts broke their support uptrend lines on Thursday. The best buying chances occur after drops into oversold territory. The NASDAQ was there in May but the NYSE hasn't touched those lower since its Feb-14 bottom.

Medium-term:

All five % 30-wk MA charts held steady at Thursday's lows. The S&P 500 and NASADQ 100 remained overbought to avoid bearish signals. Last Tuesday the NYSE dropped out of overbought territory for its initial bearish signal. It also achieved a negative high pole formation pointing to a following bear confirmed shift at O 58%. The NASDAQ Comp is retreating from X 68% and it passed below 52% yesterday. That was the level it showed a high pole signal and negative status shift.

Long-term:

The strong index gains could only trim the overall daily stock breakout activity. With only four buys and seven sells the ratio was still negative. There were only tiny losses for four broad area bullish % values and more sell signals are still needed for chart reversals down. The NASDAQ 100 would show that at O 68.00%.


Current outlook:

The world turmoil and recent overbought market conditions increased volatility last week with signs traders were getting even more nervous. Oscillating daily moving average breadth indicators all weakened with sell signals on the short term % 10-wk MAs and confirmation from other indicators. Together they pointed to some corrective retreats and the Russell 2000 fell more than 6.5%. The Friday upturns suggest some consolidation is now likely. Sector rotation is also underway and some overall relief could occur with that action. We would remain defensive and delay general buying.


 

Indicators

Close Change Chart Direction Chart Status Chart Action
Short term Composite Indicator 39.7 +1.80 Falling Bearisrh None
NYSE High-Low Index 83.42 -0.93 Falling Caution Lower
Nasdaq High-Low Index 49.62 -4.37 Falling Bearish Lower
NYSE On Balance Volume (by DJIA) 281,174 +757.00 Rising Bullish None
NYSE On Balance Volume (by breadth) 542,831 +757.00 Rising Bullish None
Nasdaq on Balance Volume by Composite 496.57 +1.80 Rising Bullish None
Nasdaq on Balance Volume by Breadth 39.33 +1.80 Falling Bearish None
NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline 406,861 +2011.00 Falling Neutral None
NYSE Money Flow Index 43,027.5 (weekly) Falling Bearish None

  • Friday saw a reversal of many of the prior day's indicator losses but those one-day rebounds weren't enough to turn any falling chart back up. Another up session is the minimum required for that. The indicators still project weakness so the best to expect is a consolidating pause in a still developing potential market retreat, which likely has more to run.
  • The daily short term composite chart was steady with a second reading at O 38%. It holds a sell signal but the downturn did lower the buy stop to X 46%. That would not be a strong signal.  The best entry signal for general longs occurs after some further declines to oversold territory at 30% and lower, suggesting that the market will correct some more.
  • Both medium term daily high low charts moved lower. The NASDAQ moved down to O 50% includes a high pole formation, adding to the downside potential. That chart is retreating from resistance at X 82%. The NYSE chart reversed a week ago from prior top levels above 94%. That is a caution sign and it will turn bearish at O 68%.
  • The weekly long-term composite chart fell to O 10. That equaled its last low. It is negative after a high pole formation. That ended the bullish status triggered on its April low pole reversal up.

 

Industry Bullish %s and Sector Sum
Daily Industry Groups Bullish %s: Friday had the slowest stock breakout activity in weeks, with only four new buy signals and seven new sells. That produced only two chart moves lower amongst the 46 broad area industry groups bullish % charts. Neither decline was a reversal or significant negative status shift. That meant no change for the sector sum value. It held its 11-July short term bearish status shift. It remains long term bullish until a P&F sell signal.

The sector sum value was -7.0. The chart reversed down 8-Jul, ending the rally from the 27-May chart reversal to -19.0. On 30-May it hit the long term buy stop at -16.0. On 22-Apr the P&F chart reversed up from a 30-month low at -25.5. The last lower reading was in Oct-2011 when the sum reading fell to -44.0 so there was lots of upside potential from there.

The sector sum short term status is determined by its chart direction, along with the direction of the groups' cumulative advance decline line and the last three day's direction on the NYSE bullish %. The sum chart reversed down 8-Jul and on 11-Jul the A-D line followed to complete the negative shift. The NYSE bullish % already had three down days. The sum chart hit its long term buy stop on 30-May, ending the sell from 27-January.

 
Sector Bullish% P&F Charts Lower:

Sector
Bullish %
Comment
Biotech
36%
Holds bear confirmed.
Textiles/Apparel
58%
Holds bear alert.

 
 
Sector Sum Indicator:


Short term P&F chart status
 
Bearish
Value
    -7.0
Change yesterday
     0.0
Last reversal
8-Jul down to +1.0
Short term stop
     -4.0
Long Term P&F chart status
Bullish
Last long term signal
P&F chart Buy at -16.0 on 30-May
Long term P&F stop loss
Potential bearish at -23.0
Last major resistance (& date)
+45.0 (Feb 12 highs)
Last major support (& date)
-46.5 (Sep 11 lows)

 
 
Sector P&F chart direction:
  

Total number of sectors
46
Last signal Down -  # of rising groups
32
Trigger for bullish status   
35
Sector charts overbought
 11
Sectors charts oversold
0

 
 
 
 
 
 
Stock Action

The NYSE bullish % value fell 0.10% Friday after falling 0.70% the prior session. Its short term momentum is negative until its rallies three consecutive sessions. It closed at 66.63%, holding at X 68% after missing a move to overbought readings. The NASDAQ Comp bullish % ended at 56.47%, holding at X 58%.

Trading activity fell back to well below average levels with 190 stocks moving on their P&F charts. The prior day had 503 changes. Volume fell 4.3 on the NYSE and 11.8%. That is not the desired activity when market rallies. It suggests large traders are not participating.

 

Sector Action

The Telecom bullish % showed strength on Friday, one of just two breadth charts to show a gain. Its value rose 0.67%, with the rally off the neutral level of 50% maintained.

Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) was the sole buy signal from the group Friday. The share rose 29% following results and the announcement of a new CEO, reversing the price chart up. The move challenges the 2014 downtrend. Despite the large move conditions are not overbought as the share had been trending lower since mid-June. Speculative longs are worth considering.

 

 

 

Glossary
Index Breadth
These indicators measure the breadth of trends within a particular index and are best known for their use as "contrary indicators" and valuable tools for market timing. They work on the principle that once virtually all members of a particular stock index are participating in the same market movement then there is a strong probability that this market movement will come to an end in the near future. This phenomenon of over-extended trend conditions is classified as being "overbought" or "oversold”. It is a good sign when both the stock market averages and the breadth are moving up in conjunction. When the averages are moving higher, but the breadth is declining, it is said that the “generals” are advancing, but the “soldiers” are retreating. This is a negative situation most of the time. It is a negative sign when both the market averages and breadth are moving down. In some markets, breadth is stronger than the averages. This means the average stock is doing better than the averages. This is a pretty good sign, but not as good as when both of them are doing well.

Industry Breadth
These indicators follow the same methodology to index breadth but measure the percentage of stocks within a particular sector or industry that hold bull trends. They are useful for identifying potential rotation between sectors i.e. reducing exposure to sectors where breadth is overbought and declining and increasing exposure to sectors where breadth is oversold and expanding.

Types of Breadth Indicator
The first breadth indicator, the NYSE Bullish %, was developed by Investors Intelligence in 1955, and measures the percentage of point & figure bull trends amongst NYSE constituents. Since then, we have developed indicators which measure bull trends or uptrends using different techniques. They are defined as follows:

Bullish % or % Bull Trends
– every point & figure stock chart has either a buy or a sell signal. This is a major advantage to technical analysis and is entirely mechanical. The bullish % is the number of stocks on “buy” signals compared to the total for the groups. When most stocks are on sell signals, the bullish % is low. It is a positive sign when the bull % begins to improve. It is negative when the bull % turns down from highs. We also consider whether the P&F chart is in an up or down column. If the bullish % is on a P&F buy signal and in an up column, it is long term and short term bullish. If the P&F chart is on a buy signal and in a down column, it is long term bullish, but short term bearish. If the P&F chart is on a sell signal and in a down column, it is long and short term bearish. If the P&F chart is on a sell signal and in an up column, it is long term bearish, but short term bullish.

% 10 Week Moving Averages
– this indicator reflects the percentage of individual shares in a group above their own 10 week moving average. The fewer the number of component stocks per sector or market, the more volatile the indicator. It uses overbought (70% & higher) and oversold (30% & lower) as target levels for rallies and declines. Reversals from overbought or oversold that break those levels are strong calls for action, with a stronger indication if a p&f signal is shown.

% 30 Week Moving Averages
– this indicator calculates the percentage of stocks in a given area that are above their own 30 week moving average. This gives an indication of medium to longer term overbought (above 68%) or oversold (below 32%) conditions, and always trails the % 10-wk MA in movement. Like the 10-week, the best action is when the indicator moves up from below 30% as this is a longer term sign that the market is ready to begin a sustainable advance. Conversely, the market becomes bearish when it moves down below 70%, signalling that the market is ready for a significant down move.

% Relative Strength
– this indicator measures the % of stocks with positive relative strength against the S&P500 index i.e. the number of shares that are in outperforming trends
 
US VOLUME INDICATORS
These indicators are constructed using the total number shares traded daily to compile a cumulative total that is plotted on a p&f chart. Each day’s direction (whether to add or subtract to that day’s volume) can be determined by any number of factors. We plot two charts each for the NYSE and NASDAQ. We plot one chart using the daily breath [up or down] as a determinate, and secondly we use the change in the DJIA and NASDAQ Composite (up or down at the close). The plotted OBV charts show p&f buy and sell signals and are used to confirm other indicators, adding weight when the signals match up.

NYSE OBV (by DJIA):
Updated daily; cumulative total of NYSE volume using the DJIA Close (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NYSE & NASDAQ OBV (by breadth):
Updated daily; cumulative total of NYSE & NASDAQ volume using the day’s breadth reading (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NASDAQ OBV (by Composite):
Updated daily; cumulative total of NASDAQ volume using the day’s NASDAQ Composite close (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NYSE 10 day Up/Down Volume
: Updated daily; a 10-day moving average of NYSE upside volume divided by the total upside and downside volume.

NYSE Money-Flow:
Updated weekly; money moving into or out of stocks, based upon dollar value of shares traded on the upside and the downside, weighted to most recent action.
 
US HIGH/LOW INDICATORS
These ratios give daily comparisons of upside breadth and volume, compared to total “up and down” of each. They are plotted on a 1-point p&f chart that allows for faster movement. They do NOT achieve traditional overbought or oversold levels, and we observe reversals from prior top and bottom levels. The reversals from extremes are NOT tradable by themselves, but provide early clues of potential reversals areas. When they are confirmed by the Short Term Composite, there should be a tradable reaction.

NYSE, NASDAQ & ASE High Low:
Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE, NASDAQ & ASE stocks showing new 52-week highs divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.
 
NYSE Weekly High Low: Updated weekly; a ratio of the number of NYSE stocks showing new 52-week highs in a Monday-Friday week, divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-week moving average. Used for confirmation of the daily figure.
 
Bond High Low: Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE Corporate Bonds showing new 52-week highs divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.

US ADVANCE/DECLINE INDICATORS
Each day, the number of declining stocks is subtracted from the number of advancing stocks for each exchange, with the result is added to the prior day’s total. This yields a running, cumulative total that we plot on p&f charts. A short term momentum signal is also derived by comparing the current figure and that show 10 sessions ago. Positive momentum is shown if it is above, negative momentum if it is below, BUT at least two consecutive sessions are needed in the opposite direction to indicate a shift.
 
NYSE 10 Day Adv/Dec: Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE advancing stocks divided by the total advancing and declining, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.
 
NYSE & NASDAQ Cum Adv/Dec: Updated daily; the cumulative total of the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining NYSE & NASDAQ stocks. A short term momentum signal is derived by comparing the current figure with that shown 10 sessions ago.

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE’S PROPRIETARY COMPOSITE INDICATORS
The II Short Term Composite Indicator: this is a proprietary indicator generated from scores awarded to 29 market indicators (unweighted) and is only concerned with the most recent action. The Indicator oscillates between values of 0 and 100 and provides the first indication of short term moves. Typically, it detects potential up moves from “oversold” readings and down moves from overbought readings. Confirmation from the NYSE % 10-wk indicates a broadly tradable move, otherwise it is for the very short term.

The II Sector Sum Indicator:
this is a proprietary indicator that scores the daily status of 45 Broad Industry Bullish % charts, each designated a possible value of -1 to +1. The ranking depends on chart status (+1 bull confirm or correction; +0.5 bull alert; 0 bull top; -0.5 bear alert; -1 bear confirm or correction). The sum is plotted on a 1-pt/box p&f chart. It generates early warnings of trend change from extreme readings. While on a buy or sell from extremes, reversals up or down will confirm short term potential moves in the opposite direction, already signalled by the short term composite.

The II Long Term Composite Indicator:
this is a proprietary indicator generated from the scores awarded to over forty indicators. These indicators have been selected across a wide range of disciplines covering index trends, breadth, sentiment, money-flow and financial/economic factors. The scores awarded to each indicator are weighted to create an indicator that generates signals at market extremes i.e. buy signals at market bottoms and sell signals at market tops. It became apparent to us that we needed to apply more emphasis on leading indicators and therefore weightings are dependent on each indicator’s predictive value rather than its trend following capability.
    
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