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US Stock Service
Daily Hotline
18 August 2014    By John Gray
Market Action
  • Reports of fighting between Ukraine and Russia halted a broad morning rally Friday. US stocks had quick reversals of nearly 1.5% on that news and European markets tumbled to sharply lower closes at 11:30AM on the East coast. The US declines stabilized then and traded sideways with a small upside bias to the close. The primary averages showed small mixed changes for the session but all were positive for the entire week. The flight to safety sent the 10-yr yield as low as 2.30%.
  • Internal breadth was negative Friday but volume rose with option expiration. With the NASDAQ up modestly that showed new accumulation for that market (S&P 500 ended flat). The NASDAQ Comp and 100 index charts returned to their July highs.
  • The lack of a negative market reaction to bad news was another favorable technical sign. In addition to the military conflict the Eurozone is in danger of a new recession. Domestically the outlook is still improving, with Friday showing more mostly positive economic news, especially for manufacturing, and a regional Fed President commenting that he expects rates to stay low.
  • The initial Friday advance boosted most index charts further. After modest weakness early this month they have all returned to bullish formations. The primary averages have their highs in sight. Any ‘catch-up' for the more speculative shares would be bullish for still more gains.
  • Even with the mixed finish Friday there was more positive indicator activity. The short term charts are universally bullish after drops to the same areas as their prior 2014 lows. The medium term indicators have followed with confirming upturns. Stock breakouts Friday did show some improvement and if that expansion continues it will strengthen the upside projections.
Market Drivers
  • The late Friday morning news that Ukraine had fired on Russian trucks created major confusion that was still not cleared up over the weekend. However there was no further fighting so the situation appears to be calming. Mr. Putin is apparently testing the western resolve to halt his further expansion. He has taken over Crimea without any major sanctions from Europe.
  • Most European markets ended down at least 1% Friday. That started Monday with recoveries. Crude also rallied nearly 2% Friday but could resume its recent weakness today.
  • The US economy continues to slowly strengthen. In corporate news takeover activity continued and the ‘dollar' stores mergers took a new course.
Technical Outlook
  • Despite the mixed index finish Friday the session included further positive indicator shifts. Additionally the entire week was strong and the limited downside reaction to more negative world news was a bullish sign that stocks want to move higher. Index charts are bullish and the major areas are back at/near their highs. All short term indicators and most medium term oscillators are rallying again after declines to prior 2014 lows. Friday hinted at the needed improvement for stock buy signals that will turn the slowest changing bullish % indicators upward. We expect that to occur now it appears likely many indexes will rally back to their highs and some will exceed them.
  • Large Caps 85% invested, Mid Caps 70% and Small Caps 70%.
  • Bear Portfolio is 25% short.
Short Term Medium Term
II Short Term Composite Indicator
37.9% (+5.10%)
Bull Alert
NYSE %10 Week Moving Average
47.59% (-0.80)
Bull Alert
II Short Term Sector Sum
-20.50      (n/c)
New P&F Signals: US Breakouts
Close 1-Day Change
Bulls 15 +4
Bears 11 +6
NYSE Bullish % Indicator
58.3% (n/c%)
Bear Confirmed
NYSE %30 Week Moving Average
58.4% (-0.76)
Bear Correction
II Long Term Composite Indicator
-3.00     (+110.50)
  • The short term composite added to its recent gains and remains bullish. The major % 10-wk MA charts were steady and also positive.
  • New stock buy signals again outnumbered new sells and the overall pace of activity increased.
  • The daily NASDAQ high low ratio chart reversed up. The followed the same NYSE indicator move by one day.
  • The long-term term composite (computed from Thursday's close) chart reversed up from prior bottom levels.

Index Trends
  Close Volume 1-Day Change P&F Signals Support
Signal Trend Start Date Trend Reversal
DJ Industrials 16,662.9 62.4m -50.67 -0.3% Bull Up 3 Apr 2014 16,300.00 16015.3/16312.7
S&P 500 Index 1,955.06 322.8m -0.12 -0.0% Bull Up 22 Apr 2014 1,900.00 1944.69/1904.78
NASDAQ Comp. 4,464.93 336.4m +11.92 +0.3% Bear Up 1 Aug 2014 4,500.00 4284.53
NASDAQ 100 3,987.51 110.8m +18.40 +0.5% Bull Up 13 Aug 2014 3,840.00 3751.69/3837.16
S&P Midcap 400 1,395.5 117.9m -1.11 -0.1% Bull Up 14 Aug 2014 1,370.00
Russell 2000 Index 1,141.65 287.6m -1.69 -0.1% Bull Up 15 Aug 2014 1,125.00
Closing prices through Friday August 15, 2014
Chart Activity - Broad Index Moves 

Stocks started Friday with new gains after another round of positive manufacturing data and comments from a Fed dove interpreted as maintaining low rates through 2015. The rally halted with the morning news of Ukraine-Russia fighting. That swung the DJ I nearly 200 pts from session highs to lows with other averages showing similar quick selloffs. The lows also didn't hold as the news was unclear, and stocks recovered to small mixed differences at the close. The DJ ended down 0.3% while the S&P 500 finished just fractionally lower. The NASDAQ Comp had a 0.3% gain at its close while the Russell 2000 lost 0.2%. The recovery from ‘bad-news' lows was a bullish sign that stocks want to move still higher. For the full week all averages were up. The NASDAQ Comp rallied 2.2%, the S&P 500 1.2% and the DJ I gained 0.7%.

The opening index gains boosted most of their charts. The long term [100 pts/box] DJ I held its Thursday reversal up to 16,700 but its short term [50 pts] chart did move up another box. It holds a bullish low pole formation. The NASDAQ Comp and 100 charts each equaled the 14-years highs set last month. The S&P 500 and 100 charts ended three-boxes below their all-time highs from July. Other index charts gaining more ground Friday were the S&P Mid-Cap, S&P Small-Cap, Russell 2000, Value Line Comp and AMEX Comp XAX. The NYSE Comp and IBD Mutual Fund charts were steady and rising. Bullish formations are again shown with the smaller stock averages still 3%-5% below their highs.

Chart Activity - Sector Indexes 

The DJ Transports also failed to hold its high Friday but the chart did move up to X 8300. Its needs 8550 for a new high while its SLP holds at O 7950 (triple bottom). The S&P 500 Transport chart also moved closer to its recent record. The S&P Consumer Staples and Info Tech charts reversed up, each ending one-box below highs. The DJ Utility and Utility UTY charts also rallied with the latter ending just below a new low pole signal. Other charts rallying Friday and ending near their recent highs were Biotech BTK and MS High MSH. The Drug DRG and Semiconductor SOX also advanced with the latter up more than 1%.

Chart Activity - Commodites 

Spot gold prices ended down nearly $9 Friday, just below $1305. The chart held its 8-Aug upmove to X $1320, rebounding from its 1-Aug low at O $1280. It still holds a negative high pole formation with a sell stop at O $1270. More gains to X $1350 are needed to turn it bullish. The two gold index [XAU & HUI] charts reversed down but still held their buy signals from Wednesday. That confirmed their 6-Aug positive bear trap formations that allowed for longs.

Crude oil prices rebounded $1.77 to end the week above $97. On Thursday the chart moved down to O $96, a six month low. It shifted to a sell signal at O $98. That fulfilled the forecast of the prior high pole formation. The decline has broken rising support, from the O $92 low that started 2014. That level could be tested. The energy indexes have started to weaken. On Thursday the Oil Service OSX chart reversed down but the XOI missed that.



Index Breadth

% 10 Week Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 47.59 -0.80 Bull Alert 8 Aug 2014
Nasdaq Composite 45.42 -1.19 Bear Correction 8 Aug 2014
S&P 500 52.92 -0.80 Bull Confirmed 11 Aug 2014
Nasdaq 100 70.71 +2.02 Bull Confirmed 15 Aug 2014
Option Stocks 43.81 -1.67 Bull Alert 8 Aug 2014
% 30 Week Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 58.4 -0.76 Bear Correction 11 Aug 2014
Nasdaq Composite 48.35 -2.00 Bull Confirmed 11 Aug 2014
S&P 500 69.01 -1.81 Bull Confirmed 14 Aug 2014
Nasdaq 100 76.77 n/c Bull Confirmed 11 Aug 2014
Option Stocks 55.11 -1.37 Bear Correction 11 Aug 2014
Bullish % Close 1-Day Change P&F Trends
Signal Status Date Changed
NYSE 58.3 n/c Bear Confirmed 1 Aug 2014
Nasdaq Composite 53 +0.08 Bear Confirmed 1 Aug 2014
S&P 500 68.01 +0.61 Bear Alert 6 Aug 2014
Nasdaq 100 65.66 +2.02 Bear Alert 28 Jul 2014
Option Stocks 60.31 -0.10 Bear Alert 31 Jul 2014
Breadth Indicators oscillate between overbought highs, at 70% and above, and oversold lows, at 30% or lower.
The % 10-week moving average is short term, % 30-week moving average intermediate, and the bullish %s are longer term.


Friday's close included more stocks down that up but mixed index changes with the NASDAQ ending positive. That produced small declines for most daily moving average breadth values, leaving their charts steady with their prior day gains. Overall action is improving. The NASDAQ 100 % 10% MA chart had the only movement, in overbought territory at X 70% and bull confirmed status. Early July it was X 90% so gains can continue. The other charts show bullish formations after rallies from levels similar to prior 2014 lows. Thursday saw some moves near 50% where oscillating indicator moves sometimes pause.


The unchanged % 30-wk MA charts are rebounding from the 50% area that was touched Thursday, 7-Aug.  The NYSE and NASDAQ Comp charts approached but did not penetrate their prior 2014 lows to hold rally potential which is now underway. Breakdowns to new lows would have suggested deeper near term market declines. Now they could return to highs.


The daily breakout ratio remained positive, with 15 new buys and 11 new sells. That also cracked the low 20 total signal barrier for the first time since last Monday. Three broad area bullish % values were up but none of the charts changed and many more upside breakouts are needed to turn them up. However the recent drops also held above prior lows. On 7-Aug the NYSE fell to a second bottom at O 58%, equaling its Feb-14 low. The NASDAQ Comp moved down to O 52%. It bottomed at O 48% in May.

Current outlook:

Friday's small losses for most daily moving average breadth values didn't impact the recent positive signals. The short term NYSE % 10-wk MA chart is rallying from its 2014 low with a bullish formation. The NASDAQ Comp 10-wk also shows a positive low pole reversal. That initial upside potential increased as the medium term % 30-wk MAs showed confirming upturns. Like the slower moving bullish % charts they did not break down below earlier 2014 lows as did the short term charts. That meant the July retreat maintained overall upward potential. Now the NASDAQ indexes are back at their highs and others could join them shortly.



Close Change Chart Direction Chart Status Chart Action
Short term Composite Indicator 37.9 +5.10 Rising Bullish Higher
NYSE High-Low Index 53.95 +6.20 Rising Neutral Higher
Nasdaq High-Low Index 38.11 +3.97 Rising Bullish Reversal Up
NYSE On Balance Volume (by DJIA) 277,990 -757.00 Rising Bullish None
NYSE On Balance Volume (by breadth) 539,629 -757.00 Falling Bearish None
Nasdaq on Balance Volume by Composite 495.10 +1.78 Rising Bullish Higher
Nasdaq on Balance Volume by Breadth 34.74 -1.77 Rising Neutral None
NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline 406,351 -41.00 Rising Bullish None
NYSE Money Flow Index 44,793.3 (weekly) Rising Neutral None

  • Early gains failed to hold Friday but the close wasn't that bad and some indicators extended their recent gains. One OBV's completed its bullish shifts and the second medium term oscillator did reverse up. Overall the charts are slowly building strength and allow for further near term gains.
  • The daily short term composite advanced to X 46% on Friday. It reversed up from a 21-month low at O 6% on 8-Aug and added a low pole signal last Thursday. That projects a P&F buy will occur before a return to the lows, and points to higher markets. The buy stop is X 50% but down and up action could lower it.
  • There was a reversal up for the medium term daily NASDAQ high low chart one day after the NYSE had the same move. That is positive bullish action. The NYSE turn came from O 40%, just above its prior 2014 bottom. The NASDAQ rally is from just oversold readings after equaling its last two lows at O 30%.
  • The NASDAQ Comp managed a positive close to boost that OBV chart for the third straight session. It shifted positive with a low pole recovery of its last vertical drop.
  • The weekly long-term composite chart fell reversed up from the area of its lows over the last two years. That improves its status to neutral, with a low pole retracement needed for a bullish signal.

Industry Bullish %s and Sector Sum

Daily Industry Groups Bullish %s:  Friday's close included 15 new stock buy signals and 11 new sells. That was positive and the most upside breakouts since last Monday when the count was 23. Friday's changes amongst the 46 broad area industry groups bullish % charts showed two moves up and one down. One group fell out of overbought territory. There were reversals and significant status shifts in both directions. The end result was no change to the sector sum value or chart. It held its 11-July short term bearish status shift and high pole formation. It remains long term bullish until a P&F sell signal but that is now projected from the high pole.

The sector sum value was -20.5. It needs -17.0 to turn back up. The chart reversed down 8-Jul, ending the rally from the 27-May chart reversal to -19.0. On 30-May it hit the long term buy stop at -16.0. On 22-Apr the P&F chart reversed up from a 30-month low at -25.5. The last lower reading was in Oct-2011 at -44.0.

The sector sum short term status is determined by its chart direction, along with the direction of the groups' cumulative advance decline line and the last three day's direction on the NYSE bullish %. The sum chart reversed down 8-Jul and on 11-Jul the A-D line followed to complete the negative shift. The NYSE bullish % already had three down days. The sum chart hit its long term buy stop on 30-May, ending the sell from 27-January.

Sector Bullish% P&F Charts Higher:

Bullish %
Reversed to bear correction.
Protect/Safety Eqpt
Shifts to bull confirmed.

Sector Bullish% P&F Chart Lower:

Bullish %
Pollution Control
Reversed to bear confirmed. (left overbought)

Sector Sum Indicator:

Short term P&F chart status
Change yesterday
Last reversal
8-Jul down to +1.0
Short term stop
Long Term P&F chart status
Last long term signal
P&F chart Buy at -16.0 on 30-May
Long term P&F stop loss
Potential bearish at -23.0
Last major resistance (& date)
+45.0 (Feb 12 highs)
Last major support (& date)
-46.5 (Sep 11 lows)
Sector P&F chart direction:
Total number of sectors
Last signal Down -  # of rising groups
Trigger for bullish status   
Sector charts overbought
Sectors charts oversold

Stock Action

The NYSE bullish % value was unchanged Friday. It rose and fell the prior two sessions. Its short term momentum is negative until its rallies three consecutive sessions. It closed at 58.30%, with its chart steady at O 58%. It holds bear confirmed status and has equaled its Feb-14 low. The NASDAQ Comp bullish % ended at 53.00%, holding at O 52% on its chart. It holds bear confirmed status with its May low at O 48%. Avoiding new lows is critical to maintaining the overall market uptrend.

Trading activity remained at well below average levels with 312 stocks moving on their P&F charts. The prior day had 290 changes. Volume increased 14.8% for the NYSE and 15.0% for the NASDAQ. The NYSE indexes ended flat but the NASDAQ gained and the higher volume pointed to new accumulation. It was also option expiration Friday.


Sector Action

Performing well at the end of last week was the Internet Bullish %, gaining 1.78% on Friday. The chart is poised to reverse up this week, 48% is needed. Following that, a move above 50% would be a strong signal to go overweight the group.

One buy signal on Friday, Yelp (YELP), up 12.5% last week. The chart is reasserting its uptrend off the May low and heading towards the peak from March at $100. Longs are worth considering here.




Index Breadth
These indicators measure the breadth of trends within a particular index and are best known for their use as "contrary indicators" and valuable tools for market timing. They work on the principle that once virtually all members of a particular stock index are participating in the same market movement then there is a strong probability that this market movement will come to an end in the near future. This phenomenon of over-extended trend conditions is classified as being "overbought" or "oversold”. It is a good sign when both the stock market averages and the breadth are moving up in conjunction. When the averages are moving higher, but the breadth is declining, it is said that the “generals” are advancing, but the “soldiers” are retreating. This is a negative situation most of the time. It is a negative sign when both the market averages and breadth are moving down. In some markets, breadth is stronger than the averages. This means the average stock is doing better than the averages. This is a pretty good sign, but not as good as when both of them are doing well.

Industry Breadth
These indicators follow the same methodology to index breadth but measure the percentage of stocks within a particular sector or industry that hold bull trends. They are useful for identifying potential rotation between sectors i.e. reducing exposure to sectors where breadth is overbought and declining and increasing exposure to sectors where breadth is oversold and expanding.

Types of Breadth Indicator
The first breadth indicator, the NYSE Bullish %, was developed by Investors Intelligence in 1955, and measures the percentage of point & figure bull trends amongst NYSE constituents. Since then, we have developed indicators which measure bull trends or uptrends using different techniques. They are defined as follows:

Bullish % or % Bull Trends
– every point & figure stock chart has either a buy or a sell signal. This is a major advantage to technical analysis and is entirely mechanical. The bullish % is the number of stocks on “buy” signals compared to the total for the groups. When most stocks are on sell signals, the bullish % is low. It is a positive sign when the bull % begins to improve. It is negative when the bull % turns down from highs. We also consider whether the P&F chart is in an up or down column. If the bullish % is on a P&F buy signal and in an up column, it is long term and short term bullish. If the P&F chart is on a buy signal and in a down column, it is long term bullish, but short term bearish. If the P&F chart is on a sell signal and in a down column, it is long and short term bearish. If the P&F chart is on a sell signal and in an up column, it is long term bearish, but short term bullish.

% 10 Week Moving Averages
– this indicator reflects the percentage of individual shares in a group above their own 10 week moving average. The fewer the number of component stocks per sector or market, the more volatile the indicator. It uses overbought (70% & higher) and oversold (30% & lower) as target levels for rallies and declines. Reversals from overbought or oversold that break those levels are strong calls for action, with a stronger indication if a p&f signal is shown.

% 30 Week Moving Averages
– this indicator calculates the percentage of stocks in a given area that are above their own 30 week moving average. This gives an indication of medium to longer term overbought (above 68%) or oversold (below 32%) conditions, and always trails the % 10-wk MA in movement. Like the 10-week, the best action is when the indicator moves up from below 30% as this is a longer term sign that the market is ready to begin a sustainable advance. Conversely, the market becomes bearish when it moves down below 70%, signalling that the market is ready for a significant down move.

% Relative Strength
– this indicator measures the % of stocks with positive relative strength against the S&P500 index i.e. the number of shares that are in outperforming trends
These indicators are constructed using the total number shares traded daily to compile a cumulative total that is plotted on a p&f chart. Each day’s direction (whether to add or subtract to that day’s volume) can be determined by any number of factors. We plot two charts each for the NYSE and NASDAQ. We plot one chart using the daily breath [up or down] as a determinate, and secondly we use the change in the DJIA and NASDAQ Composite (up or down at the close). The plotted OBV charts show p&f buy and sell signals and are used to confirm other indicators, adding weight when the signals match up.

Updated daily; cumulative total of NYSE volume using the DJIA Close (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NYSE & NASDAQ OBV (by breadth):
Updated daily; cumulative total of NYSE & NASDAQ volume using the day’s breadth reading (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NASDAQ OBV (by Composite):
Updated daily; cumulative total of NASDAQ volume using the day’s NASDAQ Composite close (positive or negative) to determine whether to add or subtract that day’s volume.

NYSE 10 day Up/Down Volume
: Updated daily; a 10-day moving average of NYSE upside volume divided by the total upside and downside volume.

NYSE Money-Flow:
Updated weekly; money moving into or out of stocks, based upon dollar value of shares traded on the upside and the downside, weighted to most recent action.
These ratios give daily comparisons of upside breadth and volume, compared to total “up and down” of each. They are plotted on a 1-point p&f chart that allows for faster movement. They do NOT achieve traditional overbought or oversold levels, and we observe reversals from prior top and bottom levels. The reversals from extremes are NOT tradable by themselves, but provide early clues of potential reversals areas. When they are confirmed by the Short Term Composite, there should be a tradable reaction.

Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE, NASDAQ & ASE stocks showing new 52-week highs divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.
NYSE Weekly High Low: Updated weekly; a ratio of the number of NYSE stocks showing new 52-week highs in a Monday-Friday week, divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-week moving average. Used for confirmation of the daily figure.
Bond High Low: Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE Corporate Bonds showing new 52-week highs divided by the sum of the total new highs and new lows, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.

Each day, the number of declining stocks is subtracted from the number of advancing stocks for each exchange, with the result is added to the prior day’s total. This yields a running, cumulative total that we plot on p&f charts. A short term momentum signal is also derived by comparing the current figure and that show 10 sessions ago. Positive momentum is shown if it is above, negative momentum if it is below, BUT at least two consecutive sessions are needed in the opposite direction to indicate a shift.
NYSE 10 Day Adv/Dec: Updated daily; a ratio of the number of NYSE advancing stocks divided by the total advancing and declining, smoothed using a 10-day moving average.
NYSE & NASDAQ Cum Adv/Dec: Updated daily; the cumulative total of the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining NYSE & NASDAQ stocks. A short term momentum signal is derived by comparing the current figure with that shown 10 sessions ago.

The II Short Term Composite Indicator: this is a proprietary indicator generated from scores awarded to 29 market indicators (unweighted) and is only concerned with the most recent action. The Indicator oscillates between values of 0 and 100 and provides the first indication of short term moves. Typically, it detects potential up moves from “oversold” readings and down moves from overbought readings. Confirmation from the NYSE % 10-wk indicates a broadly tradable move, otherwise it is for the very short term.

The II Sector Sum Indicator:
this is a proprietary indicator that scores the daily status of 45 Broad Industry Bullish % charts, each designated a possible value of -1 to +1. The ranking depends on chart status (+1 bull confirm or correction; +0.5 bull alert; 0 bull top; -0.5 bear alert; -1 bear confirm or correction). The sum is plotted on a 1-pt/box p&f chart. It generates early warnings of trend change from extreme readings. While on a buy or sell from extremes, reversals up or down will confirm short term potential moves in the opposite direction, already signalled by the short term composite.

The II Long Term Composite Indicator:
this is a proprietary indicator generated from the scores awarded to over forty indicators. These indicators have been selected across a wide range of disciplines covering index trends, breadth, sentiment, money-flow and financial/economic factors. The scores awarded to each indicator are weighted to create an indicator that generates signals at market extremes i.e. buy signals at market bottoms and sell signals at market tops. It became apparent to us that we needed to apply more emphasis on leading indicators and therefore weightings are dependent on each indicator’s predictive value rather than its trend following capability.
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