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UK Daily Hotline 
4 April 2014         
UK Index Summary
 CloseVolume1 day ChangeP&F TrendStop
FTSE 100 6649.14963.9m-9.90-0.1% Bull 22 Oct 2013 6450.00
FTSE 250 16349.1215.0m-66.90-0.4% Bull 1 Apr 2014 15950.00
FTSE SmallCap Index 4507.7170.5m+1.75+0.0% Bull 12 Jan 2012 4400.00
FTSE All Share 3581.261,249.5m-6.60-0.2% Bear 12 Mar 2014 3680.00
Closing prices through Thu Apr 3, 2014


SmallCap index points towards 4600


Since last October, the FTSE SmallCap index encountered support at the 50-day moving average line on three occasions, going on to extend the uptrend each time.  Those reactions were in response to overbought conditions.  That consistency was broken in March, when valuations dropped beneath the short-term uptrend channel.

However, support arrived near 4440 by the end of the month; above the sideways area around 4400, to avoid top completion.  Moreover, having pushed back over the 50-day MA, the market may well be reasserting the uptrend.  Note, the ceiling along 4600 is also the all-time high.


Stock Action

ITE Group has launched a recovery from a deeply oversold position.  Support has been encountered just above the June-November floor area.  It is noted that the ratio has also turned up.  There is scope on the chart for some further recovery towards the 50-day MA.

Similarly, Oxford Instruments has started a counter move from prior support (at last year's floor in this case); after the previous decline had become oversold.  Some pick-up in the ratio against the FTSE 100 is also noted here.

Both the above stocks are listed in the P&F Breakout section on the II website with 'Bull' signals.


Portfolio Update


The Tamar European Industrial Fund has dropped out of a large top formation, which had developed beneath historic resistance at the 2012/early-2013 peak area.  The top heavy pattern should force further weakness towards the smaller base region evident between 31-27, approx.  A short is opened, with the stop at 38.5 for the time being.  

The move through 510 by Catlin Group has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner, which we have followed (see II website under 'Signals').  The Bar chart printed on the right depicts the breach of support at the 200-day MA to complete a top formation.  There is some support at the round 500 region, though the weighty top should be able to ultimately force lower levels towards the floor area near 460.  The stop is inserted at 570 for now.   



Chart of the day: Bearish key reversal by RBS


The recovery from oversold by the Royal Bank of Scotland Group has been capped by a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal.  Although the feature is on the small side, it has been drawn near the lower side of a huge top formation; with the 50-day moving average also providing a barrier (the longer-term MA is not that far away either).  A sustained push through 330 would be required to offset lower levels.

Note, RBS announced on Thursday that it would be closing 44 of its UK branches.



UK Equity Trading (long/short) Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
17 Oct 2013 Vodafone Group PLCVOD Long 229.3 219.15 -4.43%213
28 Nov 2013 Aviva PLCAV/ Long 432.7 489 +13.01%420
3 Dec 2013 Smith & Nephew PLCSN/ Long 828.5 910.5 +9.90%850
4 Feb 2014 Prudential PLCPRU Long 1242 1317.5 +6.08%1170
6 Feb 2014 BritvicBVIC Long 713.5 725 +1.61%675
6 Feb 2014 Great Portland Estates PLCGPOR Long 608 637 +4.77%580
7 Feb 2014 Rio Tinto PLCRIO Long 3407 3316 -2.67%3100
10 Feb 2014 National Grid PLCNG/ Long 800.5 818 +2.19%770
11 Feb 2014 Firstgroup PLCFGP Long 136.8 134.5 -1.68%131.5
17 Feb 2014 Mitchells & Butlers PLCMAB Long 473.6 463 -2.24%435
26 Feb 2014 Imperial Tobacco Group PLCIMT Long 2446 2428 -0.74%2350
6 Mar 2014 Aberdeen Asset Management PLCADN Long 390.1 433.5 +11.13%360
26 Mar 2014 Ocado Group PLCOCDO Long 449.2 460.1 +2.43%415
26 Mar 2014 Shire PLCSHP Long 3055 2962 -3.04%2890
26 Mar 2014 Homeserve PLCHSV Long 315.2 314.7 -0.16%295
2 Apr 2014 Easyjet PLCEZJ Long 1780 1791 +0.62%1540
2 Apr 2014 Jupiter Fund Management PLCJUP Long 425 421 -0.94%370
UK Equity Trading (long/short) Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
8 Jan 2014 Diageo PLCDGE Short 1938.5 1833.5 +5.42%1910
18 Feb 2014 Intercontinental Hotels GroupIHG Short 1981 1930 +2.57%2060
25 Feb 2014 Lonmin PLCLMI Short 297.3 288.9 +2.83%310
25 Feb 2014 Anglo American PLCAAL Short 1500.5 1516.5 -1.07%1600
27 Feb 2014 Experian Group LtdEXPN Short 1098 1080 +1.64%1150
28 Feb 2014 Carnival PLCCCL Short 2463 2355 +4.38%2650
5 Mar 2014 Meggitt PLCMGGT Short 486.6 479.2 +1.52%515
6 Mar 2014 Marks & Spencer Group PLCMKS Short 496.8 471.6 +5.07%480
11 Mar 2014 Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLCRBS Short 310.2 316.9 -2.16%335
12 Mar 2014 De La Rue PLCDLAR Short 806 812.5 -0.81%835
13 Mar 2014 Mondi PLCMNDI Short 1068 1054 +1.31%1135
24 Mar 2014 Afren PlcAFR Short 145 142.8 +1.52%153
24 Mar 2014 Chemring Group PlcCHG Short 262 251.75 +3.91%290
25 Mar 2014 British Sky Broadcasting PLCBSY Short 927.5 892.5 +3.77%955
27 Mar 2014 TelecityTCY Short 689.5 693.5 -0.58%740
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