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| International Equity Index Daily Hotline 3 May 2013 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst |
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Turkey's ISE National 100 index has recorded a 3% gain for Thursday's session. The chart on the right shows the market spending several weeks ranging beneath the January peak before finally establishing sufficient support to crack that ceiling at 86787.2. This takes valuations to new all-time highs for Turkey's index.
The RSI is at a high level, but no where near as overbought as back in January. We open a long trade in expectation of higher levels. Note that support at the 50-day moving average was successfully tested on two occasions last month. The stop is placed beneath that line, at 80000 for now.
Some European bourses are not participating in the current rally in the region.
Austria's ATX, for instance, shed 2.1% on Thursday. The chart pattern for the year so far is rather top heavy. Should support at the 200-day moving average yield, the index would be vulnerable to additional slippage towards the 2200 sideways area.
Latvia's OMX Riga index lost 2% yesterday. This market is also probing support at the longer-term MA around 395, after encountering resistance at the shorter-term MA line near 410. That level has to be overcome in order to improve the pattern, and thus remove the danger of a breach in the lower boundary. Should that occur, bears will aim for the 380 region.
In the US, the Nasdaq indices have extended their advance after the briefest of hesitations. We continue to hold a long position in the Nasdaq Composite, and raise the stop to 3145, which is just beneath the last reaction low plotted in mid-April.
We also hold a long trade in the S&P 500 in the region. This market recorded a new all-time high, at 1598.6, on Thursday.
The overbought rally for Argentina's General index displays a slight loss of pace. Given the anticipated correction, we have been running a tight trailing stop on the long position. This was activated yesterday, yielding a 11.7% profit.
| Symbol | Stock | Close | % Change | Volume |
| SHBSHR | China Shanghai B Index | 260.569 | +3.0% | 45.5m |
| XU100 | Turkey ISE National 100 Index | 88669.7 | +3.0% | 569.3m |
| CRTX | Russian Traded Index | 2001.01 | +1.9% | 169,676.7m |
| INDI25 | FTSE JSE Africa Industrial 25 Index | 43466.2 | +1.8% | 66.1m |
| PCOMP | Philippines Manila Comp Index | 7215.35 | +1.7% | 189.8m |
| Symbol | Stock | Close | % Change | Volume |
| VIX | CBOE Volatility Index | 13.59 | -6.2% | 0 |
| ATX | Austria ATX Index | 2362.78 | -2.1% | 5.3m |
| RIGSE | Latvia OMX Riga Index | 398.96 | -2.0% | 22,901 |
| TALSE | Estonia Tallinn SE Main Index | 816.79 | -1.6% | 550,167 |
| JCI | Indonesia Jakarta Comp Index | 4994.05 | -1.3% | 4,714.4m |
P&F Breakouts: May 2, 2013.
Symbol
Name Type
Signal
Signal
PricePrice
ObjectiveStoploss
Latest
CloseQZM3
MSCI SING IX ETS
Global Index Futures Bull 425.00 670.00 365.00 384.3
P&F breakouts identify medium-term trend changes. "Bull" breakouts occur when a stock reverses its downtrend by posting a "higher high". "Bear" breakouts are the inverse.
Key Day Reversals : May 02, 2013None found
Key day reversals are technical signals formed by stocks posting an "outside day" of a higher high and a lower close. Sells/Peaks occur on countertrend reversals from a bullish trend and buys/Troughs occur on countertrend reversals from bearish trends. Signals are particularly powerful when occurring after a period of overextension.
MA Crossovers : May 02, 2013
None found
Moving Average (MA) crossovers identify longer-term changes of trend. We scan for "Golden" (bullish) and "Dead" (bearish) signals occurring when an instrument’s 50-day MA crosses its 200-day MA.
| Date | Stock | Code | Type | Open Price | Current Price | % P&L | Stop | Comment |
| 10 Apr 2013 | S&P 500 Index | SPX | Long | 1587.73 | 1597.59 | +0.62% | 1530 | |
| 10 Apr 2013 | Tadawul All Share Index | SASEIDX | Long | 7200 | 7175.36 | -0.34% | 6900 | |
| 29 Apr 2013 | S&P Global 1200 Index | SPGLOB | Long | 1640.11 | 1641 | +0.05% | 1560 | |
| 30 Apr 2013 | Australia S&P ASX200 Index | AS51 | Long | 5191.22 | 5129.5 | -1.19% | 4850 | |
| 30 Apr 2013 | NASDAQ Composite | CCMP | Long | 3320 | 3340.62 | +0.62% | 3145 | |
| 2 May 2013 | Turkey ISE National 100 Index | XU100 | Long | 88669.7 | 88669.7 | 0.00% | 8000 |
| Date | Stock | Code | Type | Open Price | Current Price | % P&L | Stop | Comment |
| 15 Apr 2013 | China Shanghai B Index | SHBSHR | Short | 253.066 | 260.569 | -2.96% | 268 |
- A long is opened in Turkey's index (Chart of the Day).
- The stop is adjusted on the long Nasdaq Composite trade.
- The profitable stop is hit on the long held in Argentina's General index.
| Symbol | Name | Comment | Close | 1 day | Support | Resistance |
| SPGLOB | S&P Global 1200 Index | Holds the uptrend to May 2008 high. | 1641 | +0.2% | 1552.55/1577.58 | 1745.05 |
| INDU | DJ Industrials | Uptrend slows slightly. | 14831.6 | +0.9% | 14382.1/14434.4 | 14887.5 |
| SPX | S&P 500 Index | Renews the uptrend edging to a new all-time high. | 1597.59 | +0.9% | 1485.01/1536.03 | / |
| CCMP | NASDAQ Comp. | Extends the uptrend. | 3340.62 | +1.3% | 3105.37/3154.96 | 3535.11 |
| NDX | NASDAQ 100 | Extends the advance. | 2911.14 | +1.3% | 2689.83/2730.97 | 2990.83 |
| UKX | FTSE 100 | Rallies to the highs of the potential top. | 6460.71 | +0.1% | 5873.43/6214.36 | 6534.7 |
| SX5E | Euro Stoxx 50 | Failed break under the Feb low and 200-day MA leads to a 'bear trap' rally to the Jan/Mar ceiling. | 2718.9 | +0.3% | 2427.32/2542.1 | 2796.57/2754.8 |
| CAC | France CAC40 Index | Still trying to break over the Mar high (3871.58). | 3858.76 | +0.1% | 3341.52/3575.53 | 4023.59 |
| DAX | Germany DAX Index | Rallies from the 200-day MA to the Mar peak area. | 7961.71 | +0.6% | 6950.53/7418.36 | 7953.15 |
| SPMIB | Italy S&P MIB Index | Extends the recovery to intraday resistance at 17033.5. | 16748.3 | -0.1% | 13204.9/14855.8 | 17983.6 |
| CRTX | Russian Traded Index | Counter move from oversold slows. | 2001.01 | +1.9% | 1871.32 | 2205.6/2080.15 |
| IBEX | Spain IBEX 35 Index | Maintains the rally towards the Jan/Mar highs. | 8406.4 | -0.1% | 7670.8/7716.1 | 8755.9/8670.4 |
| OMX | Sweden OMX Index | Holds the rally towards the Mar and early-Apr highs. | 1194.42 | -0.4% | 1118.98/1140.69 | 1222.8/1211.25 |
| SMI | Switzerland SMI Index | Did not maintain the nudge past the early-Apr high (7946.86). Some resistance arrived at the new high, at 7955.39. | 7902.21 | -0.1% | 7423.62/7482.92 | 8385.43 |
| AS51 | Australia ASX200 Index | Pauses the advance towards the May 2008 peak near 6000. Eases back beneath the Mar high (5163.5). | 5129.5 | -0.0% | 4689.8/4866.5 | 5980.8/5195.1? |
| SHASHR | China Shanghai A Index | Holds the downtrend from the Feb ceiling. | 2308.33 | +1.4% | 2244.01 | 2454.57/2355.12 |
| HSI | HK Hang Seng Index | Rally towards the Mar high slows. | 22690 | +0.1% | 21098.4/21423.2 | 23262 |
| SENSEX | India BSE Sensex Index | Rallies past the Mar high on the way to the Jan peak area. RSI high. | 19735.8 | +1.2% | 18144.2 | 20203.7 |
| NKY | Japan Nikkei 225 Index | Holds the uptrend towards the mid-2008 high. However, drifts from the latest high in line with the prior overbought RSI. | 13694 | -0.8% | 11805.8/13004.5 | 14601.3/13983.9? |
| IBOV | Brazil Bovespa Index | Renews the counter move to test the downtrend channel. | 55308.8 | -1.1% | 52212.9/54146.6 | 59472.5/56975.8 |
| SPTSX | Canada TSX Composite | Recovery towards this year's earlier top probes the 50-day MA. | 12379.6 | +0.5% | 11916.6/12181.2 | 12555.7 |
| VIX | CBOE Volatility Index | Quiet following the mid-April retreat from the Feb high. | 13.59 | -6.2% | 9.39/11.05/11.99 | 19.28/18.2 |
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