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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
9 September 2014                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Bovespa unwinds...


The Brazilian Bovespa index has recorded a 2.5% loss, as it corrects from the early-September overbought high at 62304.9.  The market points back to uptrend support at the 50-day moving average.  That line is currently situated near 57575.  This is not far from former resistance at the July ceiling, which has the capacity to convert into support.  We will consider purchasing once/if the upward tendency reasserts (see also hotline for 5 September).



Daily Comment:


In contrast, Argentina's General index appears on the 'Gainers' list a second time.  Following +3.3% with +3.2%, the market renews the overbought advance to probe potential resistance at the psychological 500000 number.  A move through the 4 September reaction low, at 464282, would be needed to remove pressure from that area.

India's BSE Sensex index has registered a 1.1% gain for Monday's trading.  Here too, the RSI remains overbought after a brief and very shallow correction.  Nonetheless, a breach of the shorter-term MA line would be needed to interrupt the uptrend in this case too.

Vietnam's SE index has posted a 2% loss for today's session.  The market unwinds from an extremely overbought position (see recent elevated RSI).  Watch to see whether uptrend support will arrive at the 50-day MA; which is currently located near 607; close to old resistance at the March/April highs, which could transform into support.

Polls on the outcome of the Scottish independence vote suggest the Yes side has the upper hand.  UK markets suffered yesterday, with the FTSE 250 generating a bearish P&F Breakout signal on the move through 15800.  Technically, the market retreated from resistance at the July high at 16099.9.

This, and the benchmark FTSE 100 index, are currently edging back into positive ground.  The last graph displays FTSE's 'bull trap' reaction (following the failed nudge over the May high) finding intraday support at the 50-day moving average.  Still, a sustained break over 6900 is needed to reinstate the upward bias towards the last remaining chart resistance at 6950.6, plotted on 30 December 1999.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)12.66+4.7%
IBGArgentina General Index496401+3.2%
DFMGIDubai Financial Market General Index5090.76+1.1%
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex Index27319.9+1.1%
ZARSouth African Rand per 1 US Dollar10.8093+1.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index221.416-2.9%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index92.7478-2.7%
IBOVBrazil Bovespa Index59192.8-2.5%
VNINDEXVietnam Stock Exchange Index626.92-2.0%
XAXAMEX Composite Index2727.89-1.2%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
29 Aug 2014 Canada TSX Composite SPTSX Long 15625.7 15509.4 -0.74% 15150
3 Sep 2014 Hong Kong Hang Seng Index HSI Long 25318 25190.5 -0.50% 24000
  • We watch to buy Brazil's index (Chart of the Day).


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexS-t rally pauses near the Jul ceiling.1940.01-0.5% 1823.71/1868.081961.12
INDUDJ IndustrialsS-t rally from oversold and the 200-day MA yields to ranging near the all-time high. Potentially developing support near 17000.17111.4-0.2% 16015.3/16312.7/
SPXS&P 500 IndexRanging quietly near the latest all-time high at 2011.17.2001.54-0.3% 1944.69/1904.78/
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Overbought advance is capped with a 'Peak' KDR. Intraday support is noted at 4542.74.4592.28+0.2% 4284.535132.52/4610.14
NDXNASDAQ 100Overbought rally is checked by a 'Peak' KDR. However, some intraday support arrives at 4051.75.4095.47+0.1% 3751.69/3837.164147.19/4104.43
UKXFTSE 100'Bull trap' reaction finds intraday support near the 50-day MA.6834.77-0.3% 6528.73/6773.78?6950.6/6904.86
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Surging rally slows beneath the June highs. RSI high.3267.54-0.2% 2944.13/2971.473325.5
CACFrance CAC40 IndexOverbought soaring advance slows beneath the June peak area.4474.93-0.3% 4109.31/4337.134598.65
DAXGermany DAX IndexRenews the recovery from oversold.9758.03+0.1% 8903.49/9369.410051/9871.58
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexS-t rally pauses with a (small) 'Peak' KDR.21294.3-0.5% 17748.6/18788.321896.2
CRTXRussian Traded IndexFinds support near the early-Aug oversold low.1747.08+0.1% 1522.73/1574.661978.67/1773.78
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexExtends the s-t rally to the June peak area. RSI overbought.11102.6-0.4% 9946.9/10614.511249.4
OMXSweden OMX IndexPauses the rally near the Jun/Jul ceiling.1392.73+0.3% 1320.99/1380.591547.87/1410.09
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexPauses the overbought rally near the highs.8817.19+0.3% 8090.74/8183.558918.77
AS51Australia ASX200 Index'Bull trap' reaction finds some support at the 50-day MA.5607.9+0.6% 5358.9/5425.25980.8/5679.5
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexExtends the overbought rally to the May 2013 high.2435.66+0.0% 2066.88/2283.062558.83/2443.46
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexHolds uptrend support near the 50-day MA.25190.5-0.2% 24190.9/24576.226387.4
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexRenews the overbought advance after a brief and shallow correction.27319.9+1.1% 24878.7/25232.8/
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexDrifts back beneath the late-Jul high (15759.7). Potential 'bull trap' scope towards support near the 50-day MA.15749.1+0.3% 14753.8/1535616320.2/15829.4
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexCorrects from overbought. Points to uptrend support near the 50-day MA.59192.8-2.5% 52709.4/55238.663472.6/62304.9
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeHolds the advance near the all-time high.15509.4-0.4% 15021.1/15495.1?/
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Retreat from the Mar/Apr ceiling slows.12.66+4.7% 9.39/10.2818.22

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