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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
19 March 2015                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Russell 2000 rallies to new heights


On Wednesday, the FED delayed raising interest rates.  This was unexpected and sent stock markets higher.

In the case of the Russell 2000, the market extended its advance to record levels.  We continue to hold a long position in the index and raise the stop to 1165.  This stop is kept just under the 200-day moving average for now, though we are looking to jam this up to around 1200 before long.

The stop on the long held in the NASDAQ 100 is also upped, to 4065, and is similarly kept under the longer-term MA for now.

Daily Comment:


In spite of the overbought RSI, China's Shanghai A index edged higher today.  The profitable stop on the long is tightened once again, to 3715. 

The rally for South Korea's KOSPI index is becoming overbought.  The stop on the long is raised here too, to just under today's low, at 2030. 

Australia's ASX 200 index has retraced the correction from overbought and retests the early-March high at 5996.9.  We watch events with a view to purchasing a break over this, and the February-May 2008 ceiling at 6022, as the next important chart resistance is the 2007 pinnacle near 6850.

Sweden's OMX index has extended its rally from the 'Trough' Key Day Reversal low of 11 March at 1634.81 to break above the early-March high at 1701.07.  This action has triggered the opening of a long trade (see hotline for 17 March), as the market rallies into new high ground.  The stop is placed at 1550 for now.

In the UK, the FTSE 250 has retraced its pullback from overbought after finding support just above the 50-day MA.  The previous high at 17357.3 yielded during yesterday's session, sending the market into unchartered territory. 

NB  The benchmark FTSE 100 nudged over 6980 shortly after the open today, hitting fresh highs.  The market has since slipped back to trade beneath 6950 a short while ago.  Nonetheless, a breach of the 200-day MA would be needed to cause significant pattern damage.


Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index166.122+5.1%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index67.5761+4.9%
RTSI$Russian Trading System Index $865.13+4.2%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)13.97-10.8%
ASEGreece Athens SE Index737.96-4.1%
DFMGIDubai Financial Market General Index3408.18-3.6%
CHFSwiss Franc per 1 US Dollar0.9784-2.8%
ZARSouth African Rand per 1 US Dollar12.0626-2.4%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
2 Mar 2015 Dow Jones Ind Avg INDU Long 18288.6 18076.2 -1.16% 17600
12 Mar 2015 Russell 2000 Index RTY Long 1236.64 1252.14 +1.25% 1165
12 Mar 2015 Mexico IPC Index MEXBOL Long 44055.9 44360.9 +0.69% 40500
16 Mar 2015 China Shanghai A Index SHASHR Long 3614.52 3754.32 +3.87% 3715
16 Mar 2015 NASDAQ 100 NDX Long 4370.47 4422.5 +1.19% 4065
17 Mar 2015 South Korean KOSPI Index KOSPI Long 2029.91 2037.89 +0.39% 2030
18 Mar 2015 Sweden OMX Index OMX Long 1701.07 1703.96 +0.17% 1550
  • A long is opened in OMX.
  • Stops are tightened on the following:  Shanghai A, KOSPI, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 (Chart of the Day).
  • We watch to buy the Australian index.


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexFinds support at the 200-day MA. Points back to the Feb, and all-time, high.1957.81+1.9% 1835.3/1892.741970
INDUDJ IndustrialsRebounds from the 'Trough' KDR of 12 Mar again back towards the all-time high.18076.2+1.3% 17037.8/17620.518288.6
SPXS&P 500 IndexRallies back to the all-time high.2099.42+1.2% 1972.56/2039.692119.59
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Retests the overbought early-Mar high near 5000.4982.83+0.9% 4547.31/4842.85132.52/5008.57
NDXNASDAQ 100Retraces the pullback from overbought after finding support near former resistance around 4300.4422.5+1.1% 4078.85/4289.34816.35/4483.97
UKXFTSE 100Retests the recent all-time high after finding support near the 200-day MA.6945.2+1.6% 6298.15/6693.86974.26
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Pauses the overbought advance.3668.52-0.1% 3321.59/3533.43905.5
CACFrance CAC40 IndexOverbought rally shows a loss of momentum.5033.42+0.1% 4571.05/4856.145142.1
DAXGermany DAX IndexPauses the overbought rally after a new all-time high.11922.8-0.5% 10552.8/11193.312219.1
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexOverbought rally towards the 2011 peak slows.22565.2-0.7% 17555.8/20231.323273.8
CRTXRussian Traded IndexDrops back into the s-t range/base.1174.13+2.6% 810.98/1002.081526.26/1312.7
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexOverbought advance pauses by the June-Sept 2014 ceiling (11249.4).11050+0.2% 9610.1/10136.411566.1/11249.4
OMXSweden OMX IndexRallies from the 'Trough' KDR of 11 Mar to a new all-time high.1703.96+1.7% 1572.72/1634.81/
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexHolds the overbought rally by the Jan high.9256.24+0.6% 7852.83/8925.969548.09/9292.44
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexCorrection from overbought reverses near the 12 Feb reaction low. Retests the early-Mar high (5996.9).5950.81+1.9% 5267.4/5739.86385.7/6022
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexExtends the overbought rally from the 50-day MA.3754.32+0.1% 3074.57/3194.353972.95
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexCounter move from oversold and the mid-Jan low.24468.9+1.4% 2359025363/25102
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexFailed break to a new all-time high. Extends the 'bull trap' reaction towards sideways trading near 28000.28622.1-0.4% 26469.4/28044.530024.7/29183.8
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexHolds the overbought rally.19476.6-0.3% 16592.6/18577.120833.2
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexReverses back up to resistance near the 200-day MA.51526.2+2.5% 45852.8/4784157359.3/52457.1
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeReverses the correction from the overbought Feb ceiling.14962.2+0.4% 14392.6/14606.215685.1/15349
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Reasserts the s-t decline.13.97-10.8% 10.28/11.24/12.8625.2/17.19

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