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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
15 June 2016                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: SMI fall becomes oversold


The Swiss SMI index's decline started after the May rally became overbought.  The 200-day Moving Average provided the resistance, near 8300.  Now, the subsequent decline has become oversold.  At the time of writing, the market is trading at 7706.49, which means that the April low around 7600 is holding.  In the event of a breach, though, the February floor at 7425.05 could come under scrutiny.

The SMI was one of the European markets to produce a bearish P&F Breakout signal, at 7650.  Given nearby support and the oversold RSI, we would be inclined to ignore the signal.


Daily Comment:


The Italian S&P MIB index is almost upon its February platform (15773).  Here too, the RSI is indicating an oversold state so a counter move before long would not be surprising.  An eventual breach, however, will have 14855.8; the November 2012 to June 2013 floor, as the next chart target.

Declines for a number of European indices are oversold, including the French CAC 40 and Euro Stoxx markets.  Stoplosses on the longs held here were hit yesterday.  Both probe late-February support at 4117.49 and 298.65, respectively.

China's Shanghai A index recorded a 1.6% gain for today's session.  Support at the 11 March low (2901.35) has produced a bounce.  The chart on the right shows the market to be rangebound between the January floor near 2800 and April high around 3200.

Also in the region, one notes that HK's Hang Seng index' correction from overbought found intraday support at 20161 today.  This is close to sideways trading near the round 20000 level.  Still, a jump past resistance at the 200-day MA would be needed to indicate significant improvement. 


Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
SHASHRChina Shanghai A Index3022.01+1.6%
SHCOMPShanghai Composite Index2887.21+1.6%
SHBSHRChina Shanghai B Index344.875+1.3%
ZARSouth African Rand per 1 US Dollar15.3011+0.9%
IGLTUK Gilt All13.0925+0.8%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
KFXDenmark KFX Index919.199-3.7%
RTSI$Russian Trading System Index $900.19-2.6%
STU6Italy S&P/MIB Futures (Sep 16)16133-2.4%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
27 Apr 2016 Brazil Bovespa Index IBOV Long 54360.8 48648.3 -10.51% 47000
  • Stoplosses were hit on long CAC and Euro Stoxx.


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexCorrects from overbought. Probes the Apr/May floor (1793.34).1804.3-0.9% 1763.59/1793.341950.95/1900.53
INDUDJ IndustrialsRally from the 200-day MA baulks at the Apr high.17674.8-0.3% 16821.9/17331.118351.4/18167.6
SPXS&P 500 IndexFalls after the 'bull trap' over the Apr high (2111.05).2075.32-0.2% 1969.25/2022.492134.72/2120.55
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.'Bull trap' over the Apr high (4969.32). Pullback follows.4843.55-0.1% 4607.99/4678.385176.77
NDXNASDAQ 100Retreats from the Apr high (4574.38).4424.91+0.0% 4232.08/42824739.75/4574.38
UKXFTSE 100Falls out of the Mar/mid-Jun range. RSI oversold.5923.53-2.0% 5499.51/5845.556427.32/6322.6
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Falls out of the s-t range. Points to the Feb floor. RSI oversold.2797.18-2.0% 2672.733345.2/3156.86
CACFrance CAC40 IndexFalls out of the s-t range. Points to the Feb lows. RSI oversold.4130.33-2.3% 3892.46/4117.494748.76/4607.69
DAXGermany DAX IndexHeads for the lows of the Mar-Jun range.9519.2-1.4% 9125.19/9484.7511430.9/10860.1/10474.4
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexDrops out of the s-t range. Approaches the Feb floor. RSI oversold.16271.4-2.1% 14855.8/1577321730.2/19305.3
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexFalls out of the s-t range. Points to the Feb lows. RSI oversold.8126.7-2.1% 7968.1/8256.19724.9/9360.2
OMXSweden OMX IndexS-t fall becoming oversold on the approach to the Feb floor near 1250.1273.97-1.6% 1247.061431.64/1383.38
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexPullback from the overbought May high and the 200-day MA is now oversold. Tests Apr support (7607.74).7638.77-1.8% 7425.05/7607.748487.61/8381.13
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexS-t advance falters. Breaks support near the sideways area along 5200.5147.06-1.1% 4893.55727.7
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexSupport at the 11 Mar low (2901.35) produces a bounce. Rangebound between the late-Jan floor and Apr high.3022.01+1.6% 2760.92/2901.353241.33/3144.14
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexCorrection from overbought finds intraday support at 20161.20467.5+0.4% 18867.7/19594.621654.1
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexCorrects from overbought and the Oct 2015 peak.26395.7-0.0% 24354.5/25057.927618.1
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexDrops within the range forming beneath the 200-day MA.15919.6+0.4% 15471.8/15975.519113.2/17905.4/17613.6
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexProbes s-t range support and the 200-day MA.48648.3-2.0% 46520.8/47873.757605.9/54977.7
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeCorrects from overbought.13884.2-0.8% 13217.2/13535.514622.4/14450.9
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Shoots out of the s-t range. RSI overbought.20.5-2.2% 10.88/12.533.82/32.09

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