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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
9 July 2014                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: MIB points towards 20000


The Italian S&P MIB index encountered resistance at 22590.2, within the early-2011 peak area, last month.  The reaction from that ceiling took valuations back beneath the previous high plotted in April near 22000.  Losing 2.7% for Tuesday's session, the Italian market renewed the 'bull trap' fall. 

The question is whether support at the sideways area along the round 20000 number will lift the index.  Note that the 200-day moving average is situated close by and could also provide support, as it has done so since August 2013.


Daily Comment:


The Euro Stoxx 50 has broken support at the 50-day moving average.  Like the French CAC 40 (the subject of Tuesday's Chart of the Day section), a short-term downward bias has emerged.  The market now points towards next support at the May floor at 3129.08.  The stoploss on the long trade held in the market is at 3115.

Incidentally, the French index continued its descent yesterday, breaking the May floor around 4400.  Interestingly, the market is now challenging long-term uptrend support at the 200-day MA, which is close to the April low at 4319.28; and the RSI has dropped towards oversold levels.

HK's Hang Seng index has dropped back into the previous short-term trading band today.  This gives rise to 'bull trap' fears towards support at the lower boundary in the 23000-22800 region.  The 50-day MA is currently situated thereabouts.  Note that that line provided firm support when it was tested last month.

Many US stock markets are correcting from overbought levels, including the NASDAQ Composite on the right.  The market has dropped back to the March high at 4371.71.  It is possible that former resistance at that ceiling could transform into support.


Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)11.98+5.7%
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index239.219+1.5%
CASECairo Stock Exchange CASE 308428.73+1.4%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index101.152+1.2%
TLTUS 20+yrs112.74+1.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
ASEGreece Athens SE Index1193.3-4.0%
PSI20Portugal PSI 20 Index6510.32-3.0%
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB Index20700.5-2.7%
STU4Italy S&P/MIB Futures (Sep 14)20735-2.7%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
23 Apr 2014 Australia S&P ASX200 Index AS51 Long 5517.77 5452.48 -1.18% 5325
18 Jun 2014 Brazil Bovespa Index IBOV Long 55202.5 53634.7 -2.84% 51000
19 Jun 2014 Germany DAX Index DAX Long 10004 9772.67 -2.31% 9500
19 Jun 2014 Euro Stoxx 50 Index SX5E Long 3314.8 3184.38 -3.93% 3115
20 Jun 2014 Dow Jones Ind Avg INDU Long 16947.1 16906.6 -0.24% 16500
2 Jul 2014 Hong Kong Hang Seng Index HSI Long 23549.6 23176.1 -1.59% 22500
2 Jul 2014 FTSE JSE Africa Industrial 25 Index INDI25 Long 60169 59705 -0.77% 57000
3 Jul 2014 Denmark KFX Index KFX Long 750 734.65 -2.05% 680
  • There are no changes today.


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexPauses the overbought uptrend after a new all-time high.1936.64-0.7% 1920.05/1932.081961.12?
INDUDJ IndustrialsPauses the uptrend near the all-time high.16906.6-0.7% 16312.7/16703.717074.7?
SPXS&P 500 IndexOverbought rally pauses near all-time highs.1963.71-0.7% 1925.78/1944.691985.59?
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Corrects from overbought.4391.46-1.3% 4207.61/4284.535132.52/4485.93
NDXNASDAQ 100Overbought rally has paused.3864.07-1.2% 3489.6/3751.694147.19/3923.15
UKXFTSE 100Retreats from the 'Peak' KDR high of 15 May towards the sideways trading around 6700.6738.45-1.2% 6492.62/6701.596950.6/6894.88
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Breaks support near the 50-day MA. S-t down bias emerges towards the May floor.3184.38-1.4% 3083.43/3129.083325.5/3289.82
CACFrance CAC40 IndexS-t downtrend approaches the Apr floor; near the 200-day MA. RSI low.4342.53-1.4% 4183/4319.285142.1/4598.65
DAXGermany DAX IndexRetreats from the June, all-time, high. Tests support near the sideways area along 9800.9772.67-1.3% 9534.56/9749.7510033.7
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexRenews the 'bull trap' reaction. Points towards support around the sideways area along 20000.20700.5-2.7% 19932.822590.2/21896.2
CRTXRussian Traded IndexOverbought rally has paused beneath the Dec high.1943.9+0.4% 1790.84/1856.682027.07/1978.67
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexRenews the fall from the overbought early-June high.10689.1-1.8% 10282.4/10850.6?11566.1/11249.4
OMXSweden OMX IndexPauses the l-t uptrend within the 2000 top.1381.59-1.1% 1341.83/1369.651547.87/1410.09
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexRanging near the upper side of the year's earlier trading band.8554.51-0.7% 8341.74/8520.28918.77/8763.98
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexChoppy uptrend. Continues to find range resistance near the late-Apr ceiling.5452.48-1.1% 5288.5/5358.95980.8/5554.5
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexS-t recovery falters beneath the June high.2134.41-1.2% 2056.9/2066.882247.69/2185.65
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexFalls back into the June range (bull trap).23176.1-1.6% 21680.3/22802.124111.5/23626.1
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexOverbought advance is capped by a 'Peak' KDR from a new all-time high.25582.1-2.0% 24108/24878.726190.4
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexHolds the s-t uptrend.15302.6-0.1% 14831/15027.316320.2/15442.7
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexSteadies by the 50-day MA. Reasserts the advance towards the Oct ceiling.53634.7-0.3% 51239.3/52709.456747
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeOverbought uptrend slows.15137.2-0.2% 14459.8/14937.9/
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Downtrend flattens.11.98+5.7% 9.3915.28

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