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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
4 December 2014                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: New high by S&P 500

 

The US S&P 500's correction from overbought was short-lived and shallow.  Finding support at 2049.57, the market rallied to post a fresh high during Wednesday's session, at 2076.28.  Some caution is still warranted, though, as the RSI momentum indicator remains at elevated levels.

Similarly, the DJ Industrial Average has also recorded a new all-time high, at 17924.2; and the RSI remains in overbought territory.

 

 

Daily Comment:

 

Across the border, the Canadian TSX Composite index has reversed its pullback from the lower side of the late-June/September top.  Support has been found at 14558.2, near the upper side of the small trading band which starts close to the 200-day moving average (see hotline for 1 November, Chart of the Day section).  A fall beneath that level would be required to offset current scope for a further rise towards the recent high at 15184.4.

Spain's IBEX 35 index has consolidated and moved ahead again.  The market points to the June-September ceiling near 11000-11250.  In order to lock in a profit on the long trade held in the Spanish index, the stop is tightened to 10750, which is just below yesterday's low.

China's Shanghai A index has posted a 4.3% gain for today's trading.  The overbought rally is accelerating. This is a trend-ending feature, though the turning point is difficult to predict.  Next chart resistance is near 3200.

Australia's ASX 200 index has extended its rebound from oversold today.  One observes that the recovery has approached resistance at the sideways area near 5400, a barrier that is reinforced by the presence of both the long and short-term MAs.  In the event of a clearance, the November high at 5530.3 will be the next target for bulls.

By contrast, Malaysia's KLSE Composite index has dived under the October low this week.  The fall through 1760 has generated a bearish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner.  However, we would point out that the RSI has now entered oversold ground. 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
SHASHRChina Shanghai A Index3037.19+4.3%
SHCOMPShanghai Composite Index2899.46+4.3%
CRTXRussian Traded Index1344.89+4.1%
HSCEIHang Seng China Ent Indx11481+3.8%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index73.0652+3.4%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)12.47-3.0%
HKXAMEX Hong Kong Index1110.92-1.0%
EURGBPPound Sterling per 1 Euro0.7848-0.9%
PCOMPPhilippines Manila Comp Index7299.85-0.8%
QZH5MSCI SING IX ETS369.4-0.8%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
International Equity Index Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
21 Nov 2014 Spain IBEX 35 Index IBEX Long 10500 10875.9 +3.58% 10750
International Equity Index Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
1 Dec 2014 Argentina General Index IBG Short 437268 449350 -2.76% 505000
  • The stop is tightened on the long.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexOverbought rally struggles beneath the Jul-Sept ceiling.1930.77+0.2% 1773.7/1887.321961.12
INDUDJ IndustrialsOverbought rally continues to a new all-time high.17912.6+0.2% 15855.1/17726.5/
SPXS&P 500 IndexRenews the rally, edging to a new all-time high during Wed.2074.33+0.4% 2001.01/2049.57/
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Overbought rally pauses after a new multi-year high.4774.47+0.4% 4116.6/4594.915132.52/4810.86
NDXNASDAQ 100Pauses the overbought rally within the 2000 peak area.4312.93+0.2% 3700.22/4126.724816.35/4347.09?
UKXFTSE 100Reasserts the rally towards the ceiling near 6900.6716.63-0.4% 6072.68/6637.396904.86
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Advances upon the Sept highs.3247.72+0.3% 2965.57/3026.413325.5/3169.86
CACFrance CAC40 IndexHolds the counter move from oversold towards the Sept highs.4391.86+0.1% 3789.11/4118.54509.58
DAXGermany DAX IndexOverbought rally loses momentum by the all-time high plotted on 20 June.9971.79+0.4% 8354.97/9148.7810051
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexRecovery slows by potential resistance from the round 20000 level; near the 200-day MA.19978.3+1.0% 17555.8/18444.620389.5
CRTXRussian Traded IndexMaintains downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.1344.89+4.1% 1217.051595.31/1526.26
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexExtends the rally towards the June-Sept ceiling.10875.9+1.2% 9370.5/9994.810728.8
OMXSweden OMX IndexOverbought rally slows within the 2000 peak area.1464.84+1.0% 1246.56/1396.231547.87/1474.89
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexExtends the overbought rally within the late-2006/late-2007 top.9168.37+0.3% 7870.89/8705.879548.09/9243.79
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexRebound from oversold approaches recent resistance near the 50 and 200-day MAs.5368.8+0.9% 5122/5207.7?5550.3/5411.9
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexOverbought advance accelerates past the Jul 2011 high (2960.96).3037.19+4.3% 2541.17/2552.23212.22
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexS-t range support at the Nov low holds again.23832.6+1.7% 22565.6/23252.624470.3/24313.1
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexOverbought uptrend slows after a new all-time high.28442.7-0.0% 25232.8/25910.8/
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexExtends the advance towards the 2007 ceiling. RSI high.17887.2+0.9% 16713.4/16907.418300.4
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexRetraces the mid-Nov rebound.52320.5+1.4% 48722.3/50885.758897.5/57359.3
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeReverses the pullback from the late-June/Sept top.14754.1+0.9% 14295.1/14558.215685.1/15184.4
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Decline yields to ranging near the Aug/Sept floor.12.47-3.0% 10.28/11.2431.06/15.93


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