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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
11 July 2016                                    
Chart of the day:

The UK's FTSE 100 ended last week higher by 5.6% for 2016. The week itself saw consolidation, allowing momentum to cool off. The 14-day RSI has room to allow further short-term strength. Note the 50-day exponential moving average rising through the 200-day last week, a bullish golden-cross.

 

Daily Comment:

The U.S. S&P 600 Small Cap Index rallied 2.4% Friday, lifting its 2016 gain to 7.5%. The index remains short of the 2016 high and the record high of 742 from 2015. Both those levels will present resistance and with the P&F relative chart versus the large caps holding its reversal down from June, caution is still advised on the small caps.

Breadth, the Bullish % for the small cap index, also maintains downward direction, with a confirmed top for April through June. Therefore internals are yet to confirm the short-term strength on the index.

 

 


 

In the U.K., the small caps are also underperforming the large caps. The relative ratio for the FTSE SmallCap Index versus the FTSE 100 is trading around 52-week lows, reflecting underperformance. The index itself is struggling to overcome resistance from its 200-day exponential moving average.

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB Index16066.4+4.1%
STU6Italy S&P/MIB Futures (Sep 16)16049+4.1%
BNKBANKS PAN EURO14.44+3.7%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index107.194+3.2%
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index271.53+2.8%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)13.2-10.6%
ZARSouth African Rand per 1 US Dollar14.5379-1.5%
TPXJapan Topix Index1209.88-1.3%
NEYJapan Nikkei 300 Index243.38-1.2%
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 Index15107-1.1%
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexFinds support near the year's earlier small base area. Potential 'bear trap' under the prior range/top.1843.93+1.2% 1696.8/1743.891900.53/1881
INDUDJ IndustrialsBounces back up into the s-t range/top. 'Bear trap' potential towards 18000 region.18146.7+1.4% 16821.9/17063.118351.4/18167.6
SPXS&P 500 IndexCounter move from oversold. 'Bear trap' under the s-t range/top.2129.9+1.5% 1969.25/1991.682134.72/2120.55
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Recovery from oversold and the year's earlier small base. 'Bear trap' under the s-t range/top.4956.76+1.6% 4425.72/4574.254980.14/4910.04
NDXNASDAQ 100Rebounds from oversold, back into the s-t range/top ('bear trap').4528.36+1.5% 4088.12/4179.734536.55/4467.48
UKXFTSE 100Recovers strongly to test stiff resistance at the Apr high (6427.32).6590.64+0.9% 5499.51/5788.746487.89/6427.32
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Sharp retreat from resistance near the 200-day MA reverses by the Feb floor (2672.73).2838.01+2.1% 2494.54/2672.733345.2/3156.86
CACFrance CAC40 IndexFinds support above the Feb floor (3892.46).4190.68+1.8% 3789.11/3892.464607.69/4536.63
DAXGermany DAX IndexSharp fall reverses. Potential 'bear trap' beneath the prior lows alogn 9500.9629.66+2.2% 9125.19/ 9214.110474.4/10365.2
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexOversold fall pauses near the Nov 2012 platform (14855.8).16066.4+4.1% 14855.8/15017.419305.3/17966.2
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexOversold s-t fall finds support near the June 2013 floor (7508.4); also close to the Nov 2012 low at 7490.6.8185.9+2.2% 7490.6/7508.49724.9/9360.2
OMXSweden OMX IndexFailed nudge under the Feb low (1247.06). 'Bear trap' recovery follows.1326.21+1.6% 1206.12/1240.681431.64/1383.38
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexRally from support near the Feb low (7425.05) approaches the prior recovery high at 8079.48.8037.94+0.9% 7425.058310.88/8079.48
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexPauses the s-t downtrend from the May ceiling (5427.7).5230.54+0.1% 4893.5/50515427.7/5325.4
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexRangebound between the late-Jan floor and Apr high.3127.86-1.0% 2760.92/2901.353241.33/3144.14
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexRallies from support by the May floor (19594.6). Points to resistance near the 200-day MA20564.2-0.7% 18867.7/19594.621654.1/21352.4
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexReasserts the advance towards the Oct 2015 peak (27618.1).27126.9-0.3% 25057.9/25911.327618.1/27105.4
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexDid not maintain the dip under the Feb low. Potential 'bear trap'.15107-1.1% 14529/1486417251.4/16389.2
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexSteadies above s-t range support at the 200-day MA. Points towards resistance near the sideways area around 52000.53140.7+2.2% 46520.8/47873.754977.7/51811.6
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeCorrection from overbought reverses by the 200-day MA.14259.8+0.9% 13217.2/13535.514450.9/14150.4
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Retraces to support near the 50 and 200-day MAs (16.59).13.2-10.6% 12.5/16.5933.82/32.09


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