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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
4 April 2014                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: CAC hits multi-year high

 

The French CAC 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 (see middle graph) indices extended their rallies on Thursday, hitting new multi-year heights.  The next chart resistance for these markets is at the August-September 2008 highs at 4558.56 and 3454.81, respectively.  Note that, although the patterns are similar, the French index has drawn closer to that barrier.

The Focus List Breadth Indicator printed below has now rallied to overbought ground.  Therefore, in order to guarantee profits, the stops on the longs held in these markets are upped; placed beneath yesterday's lows at 4415 and 3185.

 

On a longer-term basis, though, both markets would have to breach support at the 200-day moving average in order to interrupt the long-term uptrend.

 

 

 

 

Daily Comment:

 

The US DJ Industrial Average edged higher yesterday, to trade above the December, and prior all-time, high at 16588.2.  The move through 16600 also generated a bullish signal on the automated P&F scanner.  This Candlestick chart shows that near-term support is to be found around the 50-day moving average; and long-term support at the 200-day MA.

We continue to hold a long in the S&P 500 in the region, which broke out to record levels earlier in the week.

Australia's ASX200 index failed to maintain the break under the early-March low.  A 'bear trap' rally has followed, which points back to the October-March ceiling near 5460.  The stop on the short is at 5500.

Since clearing resistance at the 50-day MA, Turkey's ISE National 100 index has not looked back.  The 200-day MA did not impede the rally this week, as the market heads for next chart resistance around 75000.  However, we would point out that the RSI is indicating an overbought condition.  This increases the danger of a correction before long.

 

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index13.37+2.1%
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB Index21992.1+1.4%
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 Index10584.1+1.4%
STM4Italy S&P/MIB Futures (Jun 14)21697+1.4%
XU100Turkey ISE National 100 Index71544.8+1.3%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
CASECairo Stock Exchange CASE 307701.11-2.9%
ASEGreece Athens SE Index1323.24-2.2%
WIG20Poland WSE WIG 20 Index2449.49-1.0%
RTYRussell 2000 Index1181.12-1.0%
RIGSELatvia OMX Riga Index418.63-0.9%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
International Equity Index Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
15 Jan 2014 Euro Stoxx 50 Index SX5E Long 3168.76 3206.76 +1.20% 3185
21 Feb 2014 France CAC40 Index CAC Long 4381.06 4449.33 +1.56% 4415
5 Mar 2014 AMEX Composite Index XAX Long 2562.2 2561.25 -0.04% 2450
18 Mar 2014 Canada TSX Composite SPTSX Long 14369 14402.2 +0.23% 13900
18 Mar 2014 S&P 500 Index SPX Long 1872.25 1888.77 +0.88% 1820
25 Mar 2014 AMEX Major Market Index XMI Long 1819.83 1839.84 +1.10% 1750
31 Mar 2014 Denmark KFX Index KFX Long 700 706.24 +0.89% 665
International Equity Index Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
20 Mar 2014 Australia S&P ASX200 Index AS51 Short 5294 5422.83 -2.43% 5500
  • Stops are tightened on long CAC (Chart of the Day) and long Euro Stoxx 50.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexHolds the uptrend to the 2007 pinnacle.1871.73-0.1% 1741.88/1817.651879.99
INDUDJ IndustrialsTrades above the Dec, and all-time high (16588.2) during Thur.16572.5-0.0% 15340.7/16006.6
SPXS&P 500 IndexRemains near the all-time high.1888.77-0.1% 1737.92/1824.58/
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Continues to find resistance beneath the Mar highs.4237.74-0.9% 3968.19/4131.814475.2/4371.71
NDXNASDAQ 100Continues to find resistance beneath the Mar highs.3637.58-0.8% 3418.88/3543.074147.19/3738.32
UKXFTSE 100Recovers. Points back to the May 2013-Feb 2014 ceiling.6649.14-0.1% 6416.72/6492.626875.62
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Rallies from the 200-day MA to a new multi-year high.3206.76+0.6% 2944.13/2971.473456.81
CACFrance CAC40 IndexRallies towards the Sept 2008 high.4449.33+0.4% 4080.6/41834558.56
DAXGermany DAX IndexRallies from the 200-day MA towards the Jan ceiling.9628.82+0.1% 8489.62/8913.279794.05
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexRetests the overbought 'Peak' KDR high of 2 April.21992.1+1.4% 20111.8/20626.622575.3/22060
CRTXRussian Traded IndexCounter move from oversold probes the 50-day MA.1698.57-0.8% 1431.59/1538.311971.61/1904.13/1668.53
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexRallies past the Jan high (10549).10584.1+1.4% 9232.1/9654.811165
OMXSweden OMX IndexHolds the choppy uptrend within the 2000 top formation1368.88-0.6% 1318.38/1317.921547.87/1391.71
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexRally from the 200-day MA tests the Jan/Feb ceiling.8521.63+0.2% 8053.748918.77/8544.12
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexFailed break under the early-Mar low. 'Bear trap' rally towards the Oct-Mar ceiling follows.5422.83+0.2% 5028.2/5288.55462.31
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexMar recovery pauses.2155.53+0.7% 2037.07/2066.882280.18
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexRecovery from oversold; and 'bear trap' under the Feb low (21197.8).22510.1-0.2% 20119.6/21137.622986.7/21614.5
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexExtends the overbought rally to a new all-time high.22509.1-0.2% 20921/21573.5/
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexRallies from sideways support along 14000 towards the early-Mar high.15063.8-0.1% 13748.9/13995.915958.6/15312.6
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexOverbought recovery tests Dec resistance.51408.2-0.6% 44107.1/44904.854317.2/51995.8
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeRenews the advance towards the 2008 peak.14402.2-0.4% 13450.3/14139.315154.8
VIXCBOE Volatility IndexBreaks range support near the Feb low. Points to the l-t floor around 12.13.37+2.1% 11.6921.91/18.22


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