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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
2 April 2015                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Base breakout by Bovespa

 

The Brazilian Bovespa index has recorded a 2.3% gain for Wednesday's session.  Extending the rally from the round 50000 level, the market traded over the February/March ceiling leaving a base formation.  The next target is the November high at 57359.3, with the possibility of further gains towards the 60000 region after that.  A long trade is opened.  The stop is placed at 47500 for now.

 

N.B.  Due to a public holiday in the UK , the next hotline will be published on Tuesday 7 April.

 

Daily Comment:

 

Last month, the Russian Traded index encountered support at 1126.59; within the prior trading band/base.  The market has almost managed to claw back losses from the February ceiling at 1312.7.  We will consider buying a sustained breakout for the scope towards the late-November high at 1526.26.

A number of other European markets have managed to renew their advance.

Spain's IBEX 35 index, for instance, has experienced a brief and shallow correction from overbought.  Although next chart resistance is not until 12240.5, the January 2010 high, we would point out that the RSI has remained near overbought levels.

Italy's S&P MIB index is another example of a market enjoying a short-lived pullback, in response to overbought indicators, before moving ahead again.  Here too, the reaction was shallow and one notes that support has been arriving at the 20-day moving average since early February.  The Italian index advances upon the October 2009 high at 24558.5. 

We err on the side of caution, ahead of the holidays, and book the profit on the long held in Denmark's KFX market, making 4.08%.  The index is near record levels, but the RSI is indicating a continuing overbought state.

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index169.145+6.0%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index68.8989+5.2%
RTSI$Russian Trading System Index $910.41+3.4%
IBOVBrazil Bovespa Index52321.8+2.3%
DBOOil13.8+2.3%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
ASEGreece Athens SE Index765.37-1.3%
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)15.11-1.2%
ZARSouth African Rand per 1 US Dollar11.9957-1.1%
TWM5MSCI TAIWAN INDEX (Jun 2015)349-0.9%
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US Dollar1102.2-0.7%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
12 Mar 2015 Mexico IPC Index MEXBOL Long 44055.9 44202.9 +0.33% 42500
18 Mar 2015 Sweden OMX Index OMX Long 1701.07 1669.49 -1.86% 1600
23 Mar 2015 S&P Global 1200 Index SPGLOB Long 1970.1 1925.13 -2.28% 1875
1 Apr 2015 Brazil Bovespa Index IBOV Long 52321.8 52321.8 0.00% 47500
  • A long is opened in Bovespa (Chart of the Day).
  • Profits are booked on long Denmark's KFX.
  • We watch to buy the Russian Traded index.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexResumes the 'bull trap' reaction towards the 200-day MA.1925.13-0.1% 1892.74/1930.111970.1
INDUDJ IndustrialsRanging beneath the all-time high.17698.2-0.4% 17037.818288.6
SPXS&P 500 IndexRange forming beneath the Feb all-time high.2059.69-0.4% 1972.56/2039.692119.59
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Range develops beneath the Mar high.4880.23-0.4% 4547.31/4825.935132.52/5042.14
NDXNASDAQ 100Range develops beneath the Mar ceiling.4311.26-0.5% 4078.85/4280.954816.35/4483.97
UKXFTSE 100Renews the 'bull trap' reaction from the all-time high towards support near the 200-day MA.6809.5+0.5% 6298.15/6693.87065.08
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Reasserts the advance after a brief correction from overbought.3714.89+0.5% 3533.4/3616.753905.5
CACFrance CAC40 IndexReasserts the rally after a brief correction from overbought.5062.22+0.6% 4856.14/4932.535142.1
DAXGermany DAX IndexReasserts the advance after correcting from the overbought all-time high.12001.4+0.3% 11193.3/11619.712219.1
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexRenews the rally after a short-lived and shallow pullback from overbought.23359+0.9% 22397.9/22659.624558.5
CRTXRussian Traded IndexFirms towards the Feb ceiling.1265.07+3.4% 1002.08/1126.591526.26/1312.7
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexRenews the rally after correcting from overbought. RSI remains high.11569.8+0.4% 10136.4/11294.712240.5
OMXSweden OMX IndexFinds support above the 'Trough' KDR of 11 Mar. Possibly reasserting the uptrend.1669.49+0.1% 1572.72/1634.811719.44
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexReverses the correction from overbought.9137.26+0.1% 8925.96/8995.389548.09/9397.15
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexRanging beneath resistance at the early-Mar high (5996.9).5898.58+0.6% 5267.4/5739.86385.7/6022
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexReasserts the overbought rally from the 50-day MA.4010.05+0.4% 3351.05/3773.695045.27/4928.03
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexBreaks over the Jan/Feb ceiling (25102) on the way to the Sept peak (25363). RSI overbought.25275.6+0.8% 2359026387.4/25363
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexOversold 'bull trap' fall reverses, finding support above the Dec/Jan lows and the 200-day MA.28260.1+1.1% 26469.430024.7/29183.8
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexPauses the overbought rally.19312.8+1.5% 16592.6/18577.120833.2
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexTrades over the Feb high; near the 200-day MA, during Wed. Base breakout.52321.8+2.3% 47841/49908.557359.3/52457.1
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeRanging beneath the Feb ceiling following the 'Peak' KDR on 25 Mar.14942.6+0.3% 14392.6/14606.215349/15161.6
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Decline yields to ranging.15.11-1.2% 10.28/11.2425.2/17.19


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