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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
9 April 2014                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: AMEX Comp. jumps to a new high


The US AMEX Composite has spent the last month of so consolidating the rally from the floor near 2250, which had become overbought by early-March.  Recording a 2.1% gain for Tuesday's session, the market has jumped into unchartered territory.  Long-term charts reveal a multi-year base beneath the 2500 region, which is capable of sustaining a further advance.  We continue to hold a long position in the market and raise the stop to 2475; keeping this just beneath March support (and the 50-day MA line).

Also in the region, we book the remaining, modest profit, 0.17% on the short held in the NASDAQ Composite, while there still is one to take.  The market has paused the short-term downtrend above the December-February floor near 4000.



Daily Comment:


The Australian ASX 200 index failed to maintain the break under the late-February/early-March range.  A 'bear trap' rally followed.  Today, the market posted a new multi-year high.  We close the short held here, incurring a 3.21% loss.  The next important chart barrier is not until 5980.8; the May 2008 rally high.

HK's Hang Seng index has jumped up to retest the late-February peak near 23000.  This follows a brief pause, which was turned around at 22326.4.  A breakout could lead to further gains towards the lateral region along 23500, though we recognize a previous resistance point at 23263.4 plotted in mid-February.

A number of Europeans extended their reactions during Tuesday before bouncing from the daily low.  The German DAX was one such market.  This index was the subject of yesterday's Chart of the Day section.  The piece concluded that a breach under the 200-day moving average would have to occur in order to confirm top building. 

During the session, DAX encountered intraday support around 9400; a sideways level dating back to November.  We watch to buy in the event of a break over the January high at 9794.05, as this could propel the index into new high ground.

Similarly, if the African Industrial 25 index can ultimately clear the January/early-April barrier at 55473.7, the path will be cleared for the market to rally into unchartered territory.  We watch to purchase such a breakout.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index95.1996+2.4%
CASECairo Stock Exchange CASE 307704.5+2.3%
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index231.573+2.3%
XAXAMEX Composite Index2590.77+2.1%
XU100Turkey ISE National 100 Index73946.5+2.0%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index14.89-4.4%
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 Index14299.7-2.1%
TPXJapan Topix Index1150.44-2.1%
NEYJapan Nikkei 300 Index233.34-2.0%
PSI20Portugal PSI 20 Index7465.32-2.0%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
5 Mar 2014 AMEX Composite Index XAX Long 2562.2 2590.77 +1.12% 2475
18 Mar 2014 S&P 500 Index SPX Long 1872.25 1851.96 -1.08% 1820
  • Profits are booked on short NASDAQ Composite.
  • The losing short in Australia's ASX 200 is closed.
  • The stop is upped on long AMEX Composite (Chart of the Day).
  • We watch to buy DAX and Africa's Industrial 25.


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexPauses the uptrend by the 2007 pinnacle.1851.69+0.3% 1741.88/1817.651879.99/1873.66
INDUDJ IndustrialsDid not maintain the latest move to a new all-time high, with a 'Peak' KDR.16256.1+0.1% 15340.7/16006.616631.6
SPXS&P 500 Index'Bull trap' reaction to support near the 50-day MA, which holds.1851.96+0.4% 1737.92/1824.581897.28
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Develops downtrend from the Mar high.4112.99+0.8% 3855.07/3968.194371.71/4286.09
NDXNASDAQ 100Develops down bias from the Mar high.3538.23+0.9% 3318.39/3418.883738.32/3676.36
UKXFTSE 100Recovery falters near the sideways area along 6700.6590.69-0.5% 6416.72/6492.626875.62/6706.34
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Overbought rally from the 200-day MA pauses.3177.66-0.3% 2944.13/2971.473456.81/3239.14
CACFrance CAC40 IndexRally pauses beneath the Sept 2008 high.4424.83-0.3% 4080.6/41834558.56/4496.54
DAXGermany DAX IndexThe Jan ceiling continues to provide resistance.9490.79-0.2% 8489.62/8913.279794.05
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexOverbought rally pauses.21667-1.5% 20626.6/21643.722575.3/22210.3
CRTXRussian Traded IndexCounter move from oversold pauses by the 50-day MA.1660.25-0.1% 1431.59/1538.311904.13/1745.97
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexPauses the overbought s-t rally. Potential failed break over the Jan high (10552.7).10480.5-1.2% 9232.1/9654.811165/10705.1
OMXSweden OMX IndexPauses the choppy uptrend within the 2000 top formation1361.53+0.3% 1318.38/1317.921547.87/1391.71
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexDid not maintain the nudge over the Jan/Feb ceiling (8544.12).8423.36+0.2% 8053.748918.77/8546.06
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexFailed break under the early-Mar low. 'Bear trap' rally breaks the Oct-Mar ceiling (5462.31).5463.78+1.0% 5028.2/5288.55980.8
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexRenews the recovery from the Mar floor.2204.21+0.3% 2066.88/2119.242280.18
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexReasserts the 'bear trap' recovery from oversold. Tests the Feb/Mar peak area.22843.2+1.1% 20119.6/21137.623263.4/22986.7
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexOverbought rally pauses after a new all-time high.22343.5-0.1% 20921/21573.522620.7
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexRetreats from the early-Mar high towards sideways support along 14000.14299.7-2.1% 13748.9/13995.915958.6/15312.6
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexOverbought recovery finds intraday resistance at 53393.6; near the mid-Nov high.51629.1-1.0% 44107.1/44904.854317.2
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositePauses the advance towards the 2008 peak.14372.5+0.7% 13450.3/14139.315154.8/14474.6
VIXCBOE Volatility IndexFailed break under the Feb low (13.44). 'Bear trap' recovery follows.14.89-4.4% 11.69/12.621.91/18.22

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