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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
18 July 2014                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Bearish key reversal by Dow

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average was the subject of yesterday's Chart of the Day section. The neat uptrend was highlighted after the market had made a new all-time high on Wednesday. The Dow also posted a record high during Thursday. However, the market fell away following the news of the Malaysian airplane crash ending the session by plotting a ‘Peak' Key Day Reversal. The failed break to a new high could signal scope for a further slide towards uptrend support at the 50-day MA. The stoploss on the long held in the Average is beneath that line, at 16700.

Daily Comment:

The CBOE Volatility index has recorded a 32.2% loss. VIX rebounded strongly from the June/early-July floor near 10 yesterday, pointing to next chart resistance at the March/April ceiling near 18. The gauge measures implied volatility in the US S&P 500 sector, and ordinarily moves in the opposite direction to the index. At the time of writing, S&P futures are clawing back some of Thursday's losses, potentially reasserting the uptrend.

 

HK's Hang Seng index initially reacted to the early-July high today. As the session progressed, intraday support arrived at 23240.6, with the market adhering to the uptrend channel. A fall beneath the June reaction low at 22802.1 is required to damage the upward tendency towards the November peak near 24000. We remain long with the stop at 22700.

 

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index has paused the uptrend, finding resistance near 15500. However, a fall beneath support around the 50-day moving average would be required to interrupt the uptrend towards the December peak at 16320.2.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)14.54+32.2%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index102.447+2.5%
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index243.766+2.5%
SLVSilver20.29+1.9%
GLDGold127.09+1.7%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
CRTXRussian Traded Index1761.59-3.1%
RTSI$Russian Trading System Index $1265.86-2.6%
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB Index20603.3-2.2%
STU4Italy S&P/MIB Futures (Sep 14)20650-2.0%
EEMEEM43.48-1.9%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
23 Apr 2014 Australia S&P ASX200 IndexAS51 Long 5517.77 5531.66 +0.25%5325
19 Jun 2014 Germany DAX IndexDAX Long 10004 9753.88 -2.50%9500
19 Jun 2014 Euro Stoxx 50 IndexSX5E Long 3314.8 3157.82 -4.74%3115
20 Jun 2014 Dow Jones Ind AvgINDU Long 16947.1 16976.8 +0.18%16700
2 Jul 2014 Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexHSI Long 23549.6 23454.8 -0.40%22700
2 Jul 2014 FTSE JSE Africa Industrial 25 IndexINDI25 Long 60169 59807.2 -0.60%58000
3 Jul 2014 Denmark KFX IndexKFX Long 750 739.81 -1.36%710
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexThe uptrend levels out.1931.22-0.9% 1920.05/1930.231961.12
INDUDJ IndustrialsUptrend pauses with a 'Peak' KDR from a new all-time high.16976.8-0.9% 16312.7/16703.717151.6
SPXS&P 500 IndexThe uptrend slows by the all-time high.1958.12-1.2% 1944.69/1952.861985.59
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Rally stalls beneath the overbought early-Jul high.4363.45-1.4% 4284.53/4351.045132.52/4485.93
NDXNASDAQ 100Pauses the advance.3878.01-1.4% 3751.69/3837.164147.19
UKXFTSE 100Pauses the mid-Jul rally beneath 6900 ceiling.6738.32-0.7% 6492.62/6643.626950.6/6894.88
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Retests support near the May floor.3157.82-1.4% 3083.43/3129.083325.5/3289.82
CACFrance CAC40 IndexRetests support near the 200-day MA.4316.12-1.2% 4183/4277.585142.1/4598.65
DAXGermany DAX IndexPauses the s-t rally beneath the June/July ceiling, which is near the psychological 10000 level (and all-time high).9753.88-1.1% 9367.42/9534.5610051
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexRetests support around the sideways area along 20000; close to the 200-day MA.20603.3-2.2% 19932.822590.2/21896.2
CRTXRussian Traded IndexAdvance falters beneath the Dec high.1761.59-3.1% 1522.73/1790.842027.07/1978.67
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexPossibly reasserting the s-t fall to the May low.10543.3-1.2% 9984.3/10282.411566.1/11249.4
OMXSweden OMX IndexHolds the choppy l-t uptrend within the 2000 top area.1376.36-1.2% 1341.83/1355.551547.87/1410.09
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexS-t rally from the upper side of the Jan/early-May trading band struggles.8548.08-0.8% 8235.01/8341.748918.77/8763.98
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexChoppy uptrend. Bounces back to range resistance near the late-Apr ceiling.5531.66+0.2% 5288.5/5358.95980.8/5554.5
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexExtends the broad range forming above this year's floor.2155.83+0.2% 2056.9/2066.882247.69/2185.65
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexHolds the uptrend.23454.8-0.3% 22802.1/23126.724111.5/23626.1
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexReasserts the uptrend finding support near the 50-day MA. Points back to the 'Peak' KDR of 8 Jul (the all-time high).25641.6+0.3% 24108/24878.726190.4
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexRally levels out, but remains above support at the 50-day MA.15215.7-1.0% 14831/15027.316320.2/15490.4
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexRally from uptrend support at the 50-day MA finds intraday resistance near the Oct 2013 high (56747) and the Apr-May ceiling (57098.6).55637.5-0.1% 51239.3/52709.459472.5/57098.6/56747
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeHolds the uptrend.15204.5-0.1% 14937.9/15021.1/
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Rebounds from the Jun/early-Jul floor near 10.14.54+32.2% 9.39/10.2815.28


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