|International Equity Index Daily Hotline
9 April 2014 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
The US AMEX Composite has spent the last month of so consolidating the rally from the floor near 2250, which had become overbought by early-March. Recording a 2.1% gain for Tuesday's session, the market has jumped into unchartered territory. Long-term charts reveal a multi-year base beneath the 2500 region, which is capable of sustaining a further advance. We continue to hold a long position in the market and raise the stop to 2475; keeping this just beneath March support (and the 50-day MA line).
Also in the region, we book the remaining, modest profit, 0.17% on the short held in the NASDAQ Composite, while there still is one to take. The market has paused the short-term downtrend above the December-February floor near 4000.
The Australian ASX 200 index failed to maintain the break under the late-February/early-March range. A 'bear trap' rally followed. Today, the market posted a new multi-year high. We close the short held here, incurring a 3.21% loss. The next important chart barrier is not until 5980.8; the May 2008 rally high.
HK's Hang Seng index has jumped up to retest the late-February peak near 23000. This follows a brief pause, which was turned around at 22326.4. A breakout could lead to further gains towards the lateral region along 23500, though we recognize a previous resistance point at 23263.4 plotted in mid-February.
A number of Europeans extended their reactions during Tuesday before bouncing from the daily low. The German DAX was one such market. This index was the subject of yesterday's Chart of the Day section. The piece concluded that a breach under the 200-day moving average would have to occur in order to confirm top building.
During the session, DAX encountered intraday support around 9400; a sideways level dating back to November. We watch to buy in the event of a break over the January high at 9794.05, as this could propel the index into new high ground.
Similarly, if the African Industrial 25 index can ultimately clear the January/early-April barrier at 55473.7, the path will be cleared for the market to rally into unchartered territory. We watch to purchase such a breakout.
|XAU||PHLX Gold & Silver Index||95.1996||+2.4%|
|CASE||Cairo Stock Exchange CASE 30||7704.5||+2.3%|
|HUI||NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index||231.573||+2.3%|
|XAX||AMEX Composite Index||2590.77||+2.1%|
|XU100||Turkey ISE National 100 Index||73946.5||+2.0%|
|VIX||CBOE Volatility Index||14.89||-4.4%|
|NKY||Japan Nikkei 225 Index||14299.7||-2.1%|
|TPX||Japan Topix Index||1150.44||-2.1%|
|NEY||Japan Nikkei 300 Index||233.34||-2.0%|
|PSI20||Portugal PSI 20 Index||7465.32||-2.0%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|5 Mar 2014||AMEX Composite Index||XAX||Long||2562.2||2590.77||+1.12%||2475|
|18 Mar 2014||S&P 500 Index||SPX||Long||1872.25||1851.96||-1.08%||1820|
- Profits are booked on short NASDAQ Composite.
- The losing short in Australia's ASX 200 is closed.
- The stop is upped on long AMEX Composite (Chart of the Day).
- We watch to buy DAX and Africa's Industrial 25.
|SPGLOB||S&P Global 1200 Index||Pauses the uptrend by the 2007 pinnacle.||1851.69||+0.3%||1741.88/1817.65||1879.99/1873.66|
|INDU||DJ Industrials||Did not maintain the latest move to a new all-time high, with a 'Peak' KDR.||16256.1||+0.1%||15340.7/16006.6||16631.6|
|SPX||S&P 500 Index||'Bull trap' reaction to support near the 50-day MA, which holds.||1851.96||+0.4%||1737.92/1824.58||1897.28|
|CCMP||NASDAQ Comp.||Develops downtrend from the Mar high.||4112.99||+0.8%||3855.07/3968.19||4371.71/4286.09|
|NDX||NASDAQ 100||Develops down bias from the Mar high.||3538.23||+0.9%||3318.39/3418.88||3738.32/3676.36|
|UKX||FTSE 100||Recovery falters near the sideways area along 6700.||6590.69||-0.5%||6416.72/6492.62||6875.62/6706.34|
|SX5E||Euro Stoxx 50||Overbought rally from the 200-day MA pauses.||3177.66||-0.3%||2944.13/2971.47||3456.81/3239.14|
|CAC||France CAC40 Index||Rally pauses beneath the Sept 2008 high.||4424.83||-0.3%||4080.6/4183||4558.56/4496.54|
|DAX||Germany DAX Index||The Jan ceiling continues to provide resistance.||9490.79||-0.2%||8489.62/8913.27||9794.05|
|SPMIB||Italy S&P MIB Index||Overbought rally pauses.||21667||-1.5%||20626.6/21643.7||22575.3/22210.3|
|CRTX||Russian Traded Index||Counter move from oversold pauses by the 50-day MA.||1660.25||-0.1%||1431.59/1538.31||1904.13/1745.97|
|IBEX||Spain IBEX 35 Index||Pauses the overbought s-t rally. Potential failed break over the Jan high (10552.7).||10480.5||-1.2%||9232.1/9654.8||11165/10705.1|
|OMX||Sweden OMX Index||Pauses the choppy uptrend within the 2000 top formation||1361.53||+0.3%||1318.38/1317.92||1547.87/1391.71|
|SMI||Switzerland SMI Index||Did not maintain the nudge over the Jan/Feb ceiling (8544.12).||8423.36||+0.2%||8053.74||8918.77/8546.06|
|AS51||Australia ASX200 Index||Failed break under the early-Mar low. 'Bear trap' rally breaks the Oct-Mar ceiling (5462.31).||5463.78||+1.0%||5028.2/5288.5||5980.8|
|SHASHR||China Shanghai A Index||Renews the recovery from the Mar floor.||2204.21||+0.3%||2066.88/2119.24||2280.18|
|HSI||HK Hang Seng Index||Reasserts the 'bear trap' recovery from oversold. Tests the Feb/Mar peak area.||22843.2||+1.1%||20119.6/21137.6||23263.4/22986.7|
|SENSEX||India BSE Sensex Index||Overbought rally pauses after a new all-time high.||22343.5||-0.1%||20921/21573.5||22620.7|
|NKY||Japan Nikkei 225 Index||Retreats from the early-Mar high towards sideways support along 14000.||14299.7||-2.1%||13748.9/13995.9||15958.6/15312.6|
|IBOV||Brazil Bovespa Index||Overbought recovery finds intraday resistance at 53393.6; near the mid-Nov high.||51629.1||-1.0%||44107.1/44904.8||54317.2|
|SPTSX||Canada TSX Composite||Pauses the advance towards the 2008 peak.||14372.5||+0.7%||13450.3/14139.3||15154.8/14474.6|
|VIX||CBOE Volatility Index||Failed break under the Feb low (13.44). 'Bear trap' recovery follows.||14.89||-4.4%||11.69/12.6||21.91/18.22|
Copyright 2014 by Stockcube Research Ltd.