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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
13 October 2014                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: S&P 500 probes uptrend support...

 

Last week, the US S&P 500 index developed resistance near the 50-day moving average.  The market extended the decline from the September (and all-time) high on Friday to pressure uptrend support at the longer-term MA.  That line coincides with the August low at 1904.78.  A counter move upwards from hereabouts before long would not surprise.  In the event of a breach, though, next important support is at the April platform at 114.36.

The CBOE Volatility Index moves inversely to the S&P 500.  VIX has soared to the late-2012/early-2014 ceiling around 22.  Given that barrier, the stop on the long is tightened to 20, thereby locking in a profit.

 

 

Daily Comment:

 

The declines for a number of European bourses have become oversold.  This increases the risk of a counter move up before too long.

In the case of the German DAX, sideways support at the March-August floor has cracked, leaving a top-heavy pattern.  However, the RSI is indicating an oversold state, and so we delay selling for the moment (see hotline for 8 October).

The UK's FTSE 350 index continued to slide before the weekend, trading beneath the October 2013 floor (3428.72) during the session.  The RSI for the market has fallen into oversold territory.  Therefore, in order to lock in a profit on the short trade, the stop is lowered to 3470.

Finland's General HEX index is one of the markets that have generated a 'Bear' P&F Breakout signal.  This follows the fall through 7200.  The Bar chart printed here shows HEX breaking August support.  However, we would point out the oversold RSI and further support nearby, around 7100, from the March-April floor.

 

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)21.24+13.2%
RTSI$Russian Trading System Index $1077.75+1.3%
TLTUS 20+yrs120.05+1.0%
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US Dollar1070.45+0.6%
AUDUS Dollar per 1 Australian Dollar0.8737+0.6%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
DFMGIDubai Financial Market General Index4619.6-6.5%
CASECairo Stock Exchange CASE 309163.81-4.1%
IBOVBrazil Bovespa Index55311.6-3.4%
OILOIL & GAS PAN EURO35.03-3.1%
PCOMPPhilippines Manila Comp Index6968.09-2.8%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
International Equity Index Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
18 Sep 2014 India BSE Sensex Index SENSEX Long 27112.2 26297.4 -3.01% 26000
9 Oct 2014 CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) VIX Long 18 21.24 +18.00% 20
International Equity Index Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
9 Oct 2014 FTSE 350 NMX Short 3488.13 3439.79 +1.39% 3470
  • Stops are adjusted on short FTSE 350 and VIX (see Chart of the Day section).
  • We watch to sell DAX.
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexDecline from the top is oversold.1811.21-1.5% 1741.881961.12/1873.26
INDUDJ IndustrialsExtends the s-t decline to test uptrend support at the 200-day MA.16544.1-0.7% 16312.717350.6/17099.4
SPXS&P 500 IndexS-t downtrend tests the Aug low; near the 200-day MA.1906.13-1.1% 1850.61/1904.782019.26/1977.84
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.S-t fall breaks the Aug low. Tests potential support at the 200-day MA.4276.24-2.3% 3946.03/4200?4610.57/4496.26
NDXNASDAQ 100Extends the decline from the Sept high. Tests the July/Aug floor.3870.86-2.5% 3837.164118.91/4048.79
UKXFTSE 100Extends the oversold fall to the Oct 2013 floor.6339.97-1.4% 6023.44/6316.916904.86/6588.31
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Extends the decline to the Aug floor. RSI oversold.2991.5-1.7% 2944.13/2971.473325.5/3169.86
CACFrance CAC40 IndexExtends the fall past the Feb-Aug floor near 4100. RSI oversold4073.71-1.6% 3927.63/4051.254509.58/4319.31
DAXGermany DAX IndexExtends the s-t fall past the Mar-Aug floor. RSI oversold.8788.81-2.4% 8489.629891.2/9343.65
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexExtends the fall from the Sept high to the Feb-Aug floor.19201-0.9% 17748.6/18788.620940.3/20389.5
CRTXRussian Traded IndexExtends the fall past the Apr low.1524.51+0.4% 1431.591978.67/1773.78
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexFalls from the June-Sept ceiling towards the Apr-Aug floor near 10000.10150.5-1.2% 9946.911249.4/10728.8
OMXSweden OMX IndexExtends the oversold fall towards the Feb low.1302.34-1.5% 1285.211424.22/1380.73
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexS-t decline becomes oversold.8374.59-1.3% 8090.74/8183.558918.77/8874.48
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexExtends the oversold fall towards the December-February lows.5155.5-0.6% 5052.25443.2/5337.2
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexOverbought uptrend slows.2477.08-0.4% 2283.06/2389.72558.83
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexCounter move from oversold falters.23143.4+0.2% 21680.3/22565.624470.3/23581.4
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexReaffirms resistance near the early-Sept all-time high with a 'Peak' KDR. Remains near uptrend support at the 50-day MA.26297.4-1.3% 25232.8/2646427355
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexExtends the correction from the overbought Sept high.15300.6-1.2% 14753.8/1535616374.1/15970.6
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexSurging recovery from oversold stalls.55311.6-3.4% 51239.3/52480.560242.8/58897.5
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeExtends the oversold fall.14227.4-1.6% 13450.3/14139.315055.8/14878.7
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Soars to the late-2012/early-2014 highs near 22.21.24+13.2% 11.24/14.0527.73/22.72


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