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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
16 January 2015                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: DAX over 10000...


The drama following the Swiss National Bank's actions on Thursday resulted in a sell off in some of the key European bourses.  However, by the end of business, these had rebounded strongly.

In the case of the German DAX, for instance, firm intraday support was encountered at 9637.33 with the market rebounding to pressure the December ceiling at 10093.  This is also the all-time high and we watch events with the view to purchasing a breakout (see also hotlines for 8, 12 and 14 January).



Daily Comment:


Let's remind ourselves of the technical fallout from the SNB's measures on the home stock market.  Switzerland's SMI recorded a 8.7% loss for the day.  However, the chart displays the dive finding intraday support at the October floor (7870.89).  Still, we would stand aside for the time being.

Denmark's KFX index bounced from the intraday low at 746.599, coincidentally finding support at the 50-day MA.  More importantly, the market is within touching distance of last month's high at 778.025.  We watch to buy in the event of a breakout (see also hotline for 13 January), which will push valuations into unchartered territory.

Sweden's OMX firms within its range forming beneath the year-end ceiling, at 1479.37.  We will consider purchasing a breakout for the potential towards the year 2000 peak at 1547.87 (see reports for 9 and 13 January).

In contrast, the US NASDAQ 100 has continued to drift from the November-December ceiling to pressure short-term range support at the sideways area along 4100.  As discussed in Wednesday's hotline, a sustained breach would leave a top heavy pattern, which we would consider selling.



Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
CHFJPYJapanese Yen per 1 Swiss Franc138.449+20.2%
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index194.588+7.3%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index77.2119+5.4%
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)22.39+4.2%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
EURCHFSwiss Franc per 1 Euro0.9755-18.8%
GBPCHFSwiss Franc per 1 Pound Sterling1.2739-17.9%
CHFSwiss Franc per 1 US Dollar0.8392-17.6%
SMH5Switzerland SMI Futures EUREX (Mar 15)8303-8.8%
SMISwitzerland SMI Index8400.61-8.7%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
International Equity Index Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
8 Jan 2015 Dow Jones Ind Avg INDU Long 17907.9 17320.7 -3.28% 16900
International Equity Index Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
5 Jan 2015 Argentina General Index IBG Short 393955 409292 -3.89% 450000
  • We watch to buy OMX, KFX and DAX (Chart of the Day); and sell NASDAQ 100.


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexRetraces the early-Jan rebound.1850.98+0.1% 1773.7/1835.31920.84/1882.18
INDUDJ IndustrialsJan rebound finds resistance near the all-time high.17320.7-0.6% 17067.6/17262.418103.5
SPXS&P 500 IndexJan bounce baulks at the all-time high.1992.67-0.9% 1972.562093.55
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Ranging beneath the yearend ceiling. Falls to the pattern lows.4570.82-1.5% 4116.6/4547.315132.52/4814.95
NDXNASDAQ 100Ranging below the Nov/Dec ceiling. Tests the pattern lows.4089.65-1.4% 3700.22/4089.194816.35/4347.09
UKXFTSE 100Finds firm intraday support to rebound back towards resistance at the late-Dec high.6498.78+1.7% 6144.72/6298.156904.86/6773.14
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50Ranging beneath the June-Dec 2014 ceiling.3157.36+2.2% 2921.73/2998.533325.5/3192.47
CACFrance CAC40 IndexJumps up from the early-Jan low. Breaks resistance at the late-Dec high.4323.2+2.4% 3926.34/4076.164509.58/4427.74
DAXGermany DAX IndexTests range resistance at the Dec (and all-time) high.10032.6+2.2% 9148.78/9382.8210093
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexRanging above the Oct low.18844.5+2.4% 17555.820389.5/20195
CRTXRussian Traded IndexCounter rally from oversold stalls beneath downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.1062.31-0.9% 788.45/810.981526.26/1217.37
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexPauses the s-t decline towards the Oct floor.9982.5+1.4% 9370.5/9610.110928.3/10500.1/10143
OMXSweden OMX IndexAdvance yields to ranging.1457.36+1.6% 1386.61/1421.341547.87/1479.37
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexDives to the Oct floor, where intraday support arrives.8400.61-8.7% 7870.899548.09
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexContinues to find resistance at the late-Dec high.5299.24-0.6% 51225550.3/5486.7
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexReasserts the uptrend to the 2009 high after a brief correction from overbought.3538.42+1.2% 2940.91/3344.193651.2
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexDid not maintain the break over the base.24103.5-1.0% 21680.3/22529.825363/24470.3
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexRanging with an upward slant towards the all-time high.28075.5+2.7% 26469.4/26776.128822.4
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexDid not maintain the dip under the s-t range.16864.2-1.4% 14529/16592.6?18300.4/18030.8
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexPossibly reasserting the fall towards the 2013/Mar 2014 floor.48026.3+0.8% 44107.1/44904.857359.3/50973.4
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeRecovery from oversold falters near 4 Dec resistance.14041.8-0.3% 13450.3/13635.515184.4/14789
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Ranging beneath the Dec high.22.39+4.2% 10.28/11.2431.06/25.2

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