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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
16 May 2016                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Global index drops under support...

 

The S&P Global 1200 index has renewed the correction from the overbought April high.  The market has dipped under recent support at both the long and short-term Moving Averages, as it heads for next support at 1793.34.  Should that fail, the near-term chart pattern would look top heavy; and could, in turn, lead to additional weakness towards the year's earlier small base that starts near 1730.

 

 

Daily Comment:

 

The US DJ Industrial Average has also extended the pullback from last month's overbought high.  Late-March support at 17399; near the 50-day Moving Average, is under scrutiny.  A sustained fall beneath that area could complete a short-term top formation, which could lead to additional slippage towards the 17000 region. 

The uptrend by the S&P 500 index is similarly rolling over after finding resistance near last November's ceiling.  A drop to 2030 would provide further evidence of top building.

Brazil's Bovespa index has recorded a 2.7% loss for Friday's session.  The advance towards the May 2015 peak (57605.9) has paused.  Should recent support at the psychological 50000 level; close to the 50-day MA, yield, the April floor around 48000 could come under attack.  Note that floor would appear to be supported by the 200-day MA.  The stop on the long trade held in the market is at 47000.

The short-term decline by the Hang Seng China Enterprise index is becoming oversold near possible support from the year's earlier small base.  A rebound from hereabouts before long would not be surprising.  However, intraday action today saw the stoploss (11.3%) on the long activated.  Should the market fall into the January/February base, there are a couple of support areas to look out for at 7837.65 and 7498.81.

 

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)15.04+4.4%
ZARSouth African Rand per 1 US Dollar15.4038+2.7%
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index221.484+1.4%
TNOTECHNOLOGY PAN EURO33.31+1.3%
CHMCHEMICALS PAN EURO84.55+1.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
IBOVBrazil Bovespa Index51804.3-2.7%
EEMiShares MSCI Emerging32.27-1.8%
ASEGreece Athens SE Index622.71-1.6%
TA-100Israel Tel Aviv 100 Index1210.68-1.4%
XMIAMEX Major Market Index1839.86-1.2%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
19 Apr 2016 Euro Stoxx SXXE Long 330 316.66 -4.04% 305
19 Apr 2016 Germany DAX Index DAX Long 10164.1 9952.9 -2.08% 9325
20 Apr 2016 France CAC40 Index CAC Long 4580.97 4319.99 -5.70% 4200
27 Apr 2016 Brazil Bovespa Index IBOV Long 54360.8 51804.3 -4.70% 47000
10 May 2016 NASDAQ 100 NDX Long 4400 4326.53 -1.67% 4260
12 May 2016 Russian Trading System Index $ RTSI$ Long 927 921.88 -0.55% 830
  • The stoploss is hit on the long held in the Hang Seng China Enterprise index.
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexCorrection from overbought dips under recent support at the 50 and 200-day MAs.1810.69-0.7% 1793.341950.95/1900.53/1876.3
INDUDJ IndustrialsContinues the correction from the overbought mid-April high to test late-Mar support (17399); near the 50-day MA. Potential s-t top.17535.3-1.0% 16821.9/1739918351.4/18167.6
SPXS&P 500 IndexRetests support near the 50-day MA. Potential top.2046.61-0.8% 1969.25/2022.492134.72/2116.48
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Recovery struggles by the 50 and 200-day MAs.4717.68-0.4% 4607.99/4684.285176.77/4969.32
NDXNASDAQ 100Recovery from the upper side of the year's earlier small base struggles near the 50 and 200-day MAs.4326.53-0.4% 4088.12/4232.08/42824739.75/4574.38
UKXFTSE 100Correction from overbought slows.6138.5+0.6% 5845.55/6036.76764.82/6487.89
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50S-t decline from the 200-day MA yields to ranging between the early-Apr low (2860.21) and 50-day MA.2956.63+0.7% 2801.43/2860.213345.2/3156.86
CACFrance CAC40 IndexS-t decline yields to ranging between the early-Apr low (4229.12) and 50-day MA.4319.99+0.6% 4117.49/4229.124748.76
DAXGermany DAX IndexCorrection from overbought slows.9952.9+0.9% 9125.19/9484.7511430.9/10860.1/10474.4
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexPullback from resistance by the late-Jan/Mar ceiling (19305.3) shows a minor loss of momentum.17729.5+0.4% 15773/16587.721730.2/19305.3
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexCorrection from overbought slows.8721.5+0.7% 7968.1/8256.19724.9/9360.2
OMXSweden OMX IndexRetreat from the mid-Mar high (1431.64); and 200-day MA slows.1323.18+0.8% 1247.06/1300.91431.64/1342.26
SMISwitzerland SMI Index'Bull trap' reaction reverses, finding support above the early-Apr low.7925.76+0.5% 7247.25/7425.05/7607.748487.61/8381.13/8210.93
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexFailed break over the Oct 2015 high (5384.8). Potential 'bull trap' scope towards 5200.5358.95+0.6% 4838.3/5179.55727.7
SHASHRChina Shanghai A Index'Bull trap' pullback slows by prior support at the 11 Mar low (2901.35).2983.53+0.8% 2760.92/2901.353241.33/3144.14
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexOversold fall from the 200-day MA slows near the upper side of the small early-2016 base area.19884+0.8% 18278.8/18867.722217.5/21654.1
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexFinds uptrend support at the 50-day MA. Reasserts the advance to the Dec ceiling (26256.4).25653.2+0.6% 24354.5/25057.927618.1/26256.4
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexRetreat from the 200-day MA pauses, finding support above the early-Apr low.16466.4+0.3% 14865.8/15471.819113.2/17905.4/17613.6
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexPauses the advance towards the May 2015 peak (57605.9).51804.3-2.7% 47873.7/49907.857605.9/54977.7
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeDevelops support near the 50 and 200-day MA. Potentially reasserting up to the Oct ceiling (14053.2) after correcting from overbought.13748.6-0.3% 12506.1/13217.214622.4/14053.2
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Mid-Apr support at 12.5 holds with a 'Trough' KDR on 11 May.15.04+4.4% 10.88/12.533.82/32.09


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