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International Equity Index Daily Hotline 
21 July 2015                                     By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Breakout by Italian index but...

 

The Italian S&P MIB index appears on the 'Gainers' list with +1.1%.  Also the move through 24000 has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner. 

On a near-term basis, the market has extended the rally past the short-term range highs at the April-June ceiling, 24081.7.  This action has renewed the advance off the 2012 floor near 12000.  This seven-year chart shows that valuations have approached resistance at the late-2009 peak at 24558.5.  It is worth bearing in mind that that barrier may still have a depressing effect.

 

Daily Comment:

 

In contrast, Poland's WSE WIG 20 index makes an appearance on the 'Losers' board.  Shedding 1.8% on Monday, the market looks to be reasserting the downtrend.  A clearance of resistance near 2300, at the 25-day Moving Average, would be needed to improve the outlook.

In the US, we err on the side of caution and book the remaining profit on the long trade held in the S&P 100 making 1.13%.  The market did rally to a new all-time high, though some intraday resistance is noted there, at 947.85.

Profitable stops are tightened on the NASDAQ longs, to 5200 for the Composite version and 4655 for the NASDAQ 100.  These markets rallied to new highs yesterday.

In contrast, across the border, Canada's TSX Composite index has retraced a good portion on the recent recovery after finding downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA.  If this month's earlier low at 14275.5 fails, next important chart support is at the January floor at 13892.6.

Australia's ASX 200 index has continued its rally from support in the 5400 region.  Having edged over the late-June high at 5705.8, bulls will be aiming for the late-May high at 5803.  Note this is near the lower side of the year's earlier top formation, which stretches up to around 6000.

 

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)12.25+2.5%
PCOMPPhilippines Manila Comp Index7627.96+1.2%
HEXFinland HEX General Index8838.04+1.2%
STU5Italy S&P/MIB Futures (Sep 15)24039+1.2%
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB Index24031.2+1.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
HUINYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index113.071-12.0%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index48.6344-10.3%
GLDGold105.7-2.7%
PPLTPlatinum94.35-2.4%
WIG20Poland WSE WIG 20 Index2244.63-1.8%
The International Equity Index Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
18 Jun 2015 NASDAQ Composite CCMP Long 5132.52 5218.86 +1.68% 5200
16 Jul 2015 NASDAQ 100 NDX Long 4562.33 4679.68 +2.57% 4655
  • The remaining profit is booked on the long held in the S&P 100.
  • Stops on the above are tightened again.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
SPGLOBS&P Global 1200 IndexHolds the 'Bear trap' recovery from oversold towards the highs.1968.87+0.0% 1861.72/1888.22007.62
INDUDJ IndustrialsRecovery from the 'Trough' KDR of 7 July slows slightly on the approach to the highs of the m-t band/top; and April's all-time high.18100.4+0.1% 17037.8/17465.718351.4
SPXS&P 500 IndexRallies from the Mar floor and 200-day MA to the all-time high.2128.28+0.1% 1980.9/2039.692134.72
CCMPNASDAQ Comp.Rallies past the Jun peak (5164.36) to a new all-time high.5218.86+0.2% 4825.93/4888.17/
NDXNASDAQ 100Advances towards the 2000 peak. RSI high.4679.68+0.4% 4280.95/4333.114816.35
UKXFTSE 100Holds the rally from oversold towards the late-June high within the prior top.6788.69+0.2% 6298.156873.43
SX5EEuro Stoxx 50S-t rally shows a minor loss of momentum beneath the Apr highs.3686.58+0.4% 2998.53/3291.33836.28
CACFrance CAC40 IndexS-t rally finds intraday resistance near the May high.5142.49+0.4% 4076.16/4571.055283.71/5193.77
DAXGermany DAX IndexS-t rally slows near the May high (11920.3).11735.7+0.5% 9382.82/10552.812079/11920.3
SPMIBItaly S&P MIB IndexExtends the s-t rally past the highs of the prior range (24081.7) during Mon.24031.2+1.1% 20231.3/20937.324558.5
IBEXSpain IBEX 35 IndexRallies from oversold towards the Apr/May highs11556.1+0.7% 10136.4/10316.411884.6/11684.6
OMXSweden OMX IndexExtends the s-t rally to the late-May high (1669.13); and prior top.1653.44+1.1% 1421.34/1507.011720.02/1669.13
SMISwitzerland SMI IndexBreaks out of the m-t trading band (9474.95). Rallies towards the 2007 peak. RSI high.9482.62+0.4% 8300.37/8727.959548.09
AS51Australia ASX200 IndexEdges over late-June resistance (5705.8). Points to the late-May high (5803), which is near the lower side of the prior top.5706.72+0.3% 5267.4/5383.75803
SHASHRChina Shanghai A IndexPotentially reasserting the recovery from oversold.4209.51+0.6% 3351.05/3535.594944.61/4521.48
HSIHK Hang Seng IndexRestarts the recovery from the oversold and accelerated 8 Jul low.25536.4+0.5% 22529.828588.5/27470.5/26470.4
SENSEXIndia BSE Sensex IndexHolds the s-t uptrend towards the Apr high.28420.1-0.2% 27209.2/27530.930024.7/29094.6
NKYJapan Nikkei 225 IndexRallies from the Apr low (18928) back to the June high.20842+0.9% 1892822750.7/20952.7
IBOVBrazil Bovespa IndexReasserts the fall from the May high; finding resistance near the 50 and 200-day MAs.51600.1-1.4% 49908/51129.858897.5/54360.8
SPTSXCanada TSX CompositeRetraces the recovery after finding downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA.14425.6-1.5% 13892.6/14275.514995.3/14748
VIXCBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Eases back into the m-t range. 'Bull trap' to test the lower boundary near 12.12.25+2.5% 10.28/11.2425.2/20.05


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