FX Daily Hotline
Following a short-lived, and shallow, correction from overbought, the US Dollar Trade Weighted Index has reasserted its advance to the year's prior highs. That ceiling is situated near the psychological 100 level. The RSI indicator is rising towards overbought levels again, so, some further hesitation is possible near that barrier. However, a sustained fall beneath the sideways area around 98 would be required to remove pressure from those highs, which stretch up to 100.39. In the event of a clearance, next chart resistance is not until 102.15, from the March 2003 high.
DXY measures the
Following on from the Chart of the Day section, the Euro has the majority stake in the US$ Index and its picture is almost the inverse of DXY's. Shedding 0.8% versus the US Dollar yesterday, the single European currency has reasserted the near-term downtrend towards the March/April floor near US$1.0450. We would point out that the RSI is at a low level again. However, the rate is currently changing hands at US$1.0659 and is resuming the decline towards the year's earlier platform.
On Monday, the Euro renewed the break under the 'Trough' Key Day Reversal of 5 November against the British Pound. This action extended the short-term decline to the lows of the broad trading band at �0.6936. Trading at �0.7018 a short while ago, the single European unit continues to weaken today. A jump past initial resistance near �0.7200; near the 50-day Moving Average, would be needed to indicate continuing support at the year's floor area.
The Euro fell out of the medium-term trading band/top versus the Japanese Yen yesterday. Although intraday support was noted at Y130.65 in the session, a more forceful up move is required to remove pressure from the smaller base area, which stretches down to Y126.1.
The Swiss Franc similarly extended its downward trend against the Japanese unit. A leap over initial resistance at Y123.396 would have to be seen to delay an extension of the downtrend from the June ceiling towards the March floor at Y119.917.
In contrast, the US Dollar reversed up v Yen after correcting the overbought situation. Support was encountered above the prior short-term range/base, as the Greenback reasserted the rally towards the June-August highs at Y125.86-125.28.
The UK currency is retracing the 'Peak' key reversal of 5 November, heading back towards the mid-September barrier at Y188.316. We will consider buying a breakout, as a base formation will be in place (see also hotline for 12 November).
|BRLGBP||Brazilian Real/Pound Sterling||0.1722||+1.0%|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||1173.89||+0.9%|
|RUB||Russian Ruble per 1 US Dollar||65.3323||-2.1%|
|EURZAR||Euro/South African Rand||15.299||-1.3%|
|NZD||New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar||0.6493||-0.7%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|25 Aug 2015||US$/Canadian Dollar||CAD||Long||1.3336||1.3331||-0.04%||1.3|
|7 Sep 2015||GBP/Singaporean Dollar||GBPSGD||Long||2.1808||2.1629||-0.82%||2.1|
|28 Sep 2015||Euro/South African Rand||EURZAR||Long||15.6895||15.299||-2.49%||14.75|
|4 Nov 2015||US$/Norwegian Krone||NOK||Long||8.6291||8.696||+0.78%||7.89|
|6 Nov 2015||Brazilian Real/Pound Sterling||BRLGBP||Long||0.1753||0.1722||-1.77%||0.162|
|12 Nov 2015||GBP/South African Rand||GBPZAR||Long||21.8007||21.7632||-0.17%||20.25|
- We watch to buy Sterling v Yen.
|DXY||US Dollar Index||Reasserts the rally to the year's earlier ceiling near the psychological 100 level after correcting from overbought. RSI high again.||99.376||+0.4%||96.466/98.432||102.15/100.39/99.504|
|EUR||Euro/US Dollar||Reasserts the decline towards the Mar/Apr floor near 1.05 after a bounce from oversold. RSI low again.||1.0686||-0.8%||0.9613/1.045/1.0675||1.1096/1.083|
|GBPUSD||British Pound/US Dollar||'Bear trap' recovery shows a minor loss of momentum.||1.5203||-0.2%||1.4857/1.5027||1.5659/1.5509|
|CAD||US$/Canadian Dollar||S-t rally approaches the Sept high (1.3457).||1.3331||+0.1%||1.2657/1.2832||1.4/1.3457|
|JPY||US$/Japanese Yen||Reverses up towards the Jun-Aug highs after correcting from overbought.||123.18||+0.5%||120.07/122.23||125.28/123.6|
|ZAR||US$/South African Rand||Holds the s-t rally near the all-time high.||14.3149||-0.5%||12.9828/14.0742||/|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||Rallies from oversold within the late-Jul/early-Oct top.||1173.89||+0.9%||1097.47/1120.61||1208.72|
|CHF||US$/Swiss Franc||Renews the s-t rally to the Mar high (1.0129). RSI high.||1.0098||+0.4%||0.9836/0.999||1.024/1.0129|
|EURGBP||Euro/Pounds Sterling||Renews the break under the 'Trough' KDR of 5 Nov (0.7042) and the fall to the lows of the broad trading band.||0.703||-0.5%||0.6936||0.725/0.7197|
|EURJPY||Euro/Japanese Yen||Falls out of the m-t trading band/top. Intraday support is noted at 130.65.||131.63||-0.3%||126.1||136.96/133.39?|
|EURCHF||Euro/Swiss Franc||Uptrend flattens.||1.079||-0.4%||1.0531/1.0713||1.2097/1.105|
|GBPJPY||GBP/Japanese Yen||Retraces the 'Peak' KDR of 5 Nov, which was plotted near resistance at the mid-Sept high (188.316).||187.268||+0.2%||181.843/183.906||195.885/188.316|
|GBPCHF||GBP/Swiss Franc||Renews the s-t rally to test resistance at the Sept ceiling (1.5411).||1.535||+0.1%||1.4467/1.5055||1.5589/1.5411|
|CHFJPY||Sfr/Japanese Yen||Resumes the downtrend from the Jun ceiling towards the Mar floor.||121.993||+0.1%||119.917||125.945/123.396|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||Develops support near the upper side of the prior small base. Tries to reassert the recovery.||87.417||+0.0%||81.925||92.432/88.617|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||Pauses the fall from the Aug high (0.744) above the Sept floor (0.6896). Revives base theory.||0.7096||-0.4%||0.6896||0.7849/0.744|
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