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FX Daily Hotline 
14 July 2014     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: US$ reverses up v C$

 

A quick glance at the 'Gainers & Losers' sections below reveal that the Canadian Dollar fell out of favour on Friday.  The US Dollar, for instance, gained 0.8% (as did most of the currencies featured in those lists).

The chart displays the Greenback reversing its oversold decline; finding support near the December/early-January range floor around C$1.0600.  While there is room for a further recovery, we would point out the vicinity of short-term downtrend resistance at the 50-day moving average, near C$1.08.  The 200-day MA is close by, and may also act as a barrier.  In the event of a breakout, the next chart resistance is at the June high at C$1.0961.

 

Daily Comment:

 

Against the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar extended its correction from the early-July overbought high at Y96.228.  The pullback has reached an area of support from this year's earlier base area, around Y94; and both the long and short-term moving averages are to be found in the region.  These could also offer a lift.

The Euro has paused its downtrend versus the Canadian currency.  Bouncing from prior support at the early-2014 low, at C$1.44102, the single European unit also lifts from an oversold position towards the downtrend channel represented by the 50-day MA; with the longer-term MA line close by.

The Canadian unit's recovery versus the Mexican Peso has faltered with an engulfing candlestick.  A move over Friday's high at MP12.2250 is needed to remove the risk of further slippage towards the base area starting near MP12.0000 (see 'Losers' for the chart).

We print the chart of the Euro v Mexican Peso, where the European currency has drawn a 'Dead' MA Crossover.  That feature is plotted at the sideways area along MP17.80, which has curbed the Euro's recovery for about a month.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar has recorded a 0.7% gain versus Russia's Ruble.  The downtrend from the March ceiling has paused, though a breach in resistance at the descending 50-day MA would be needed to interrupt the downward tendency; and suggest a challenge upon the barrier near RR35, which is also a lateral level running across the page.  We remain short, with the stop at RR35.50.

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
AUDCADAustralian Dollar/Canadian Dollar1.0082+0.8%
EURCADEuro/Canadian Dollar1.4607+0.8%
CADUS$/Canadian Dollar1.0734+0.8%
RUBRussian Ruble per 1 US Dollar34.223+0.7%
GBPCADGBP/Canadian Dollar1.8364+0.6%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
TWI CDSPCanadian Dollar Index142.25-0.8%
CADEURCanadian Dollar/Euro0.6846-0.8%
CADJPYCanadian Dollar/Japanese Yen94.35-0.8%
CADMXNCanadian Dollar/Mexican Peso12.1058-0.8%
CADUSDCanadian Dollar/US Dollar0.9316-0.8%
    
The FX Model Portfolio
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
3 Jul 2014 GBP/Japanese Yen GBPJPY Long 174.85 173.276 -0.90% 169
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
21 May 2014 New Turkish Lira per 1 US Dollar TRY Short 2.0949 2.1176 -1.08% 2.155
4 Jul 2014 Philippines Peso per 1 US Dollar PHP Short 43.475 43.56 -0.20% 44.25
9 Jul 2014 Russian Ruble per 1 US Dollar RUB Short 33.9864 34.223 -0.70% 35.5
  • There are no changes today.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexTries to reassert the July recovery.80.187+0.1% 78.906/79.7481.02/80.359
EUREuro/US DollarStill confined beneath sideways trading near 1.37.1.3608-0.0% 1.3477/1.35761.3993/1.37
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarPauses the overbought uptrend from the 2013 floor.1.7116-0.1% 1.6693/1.69231.7631/1.7177
CADUS$/Canadian DollarOversold fall reverses. Points back to s-t downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA (200-day MA is nearby too).1.0734+0.8% 1.0561/1.06211.1279/1.0961
JPYUS$/Japanese YenRanging between the Dec/Jan peak area and support near the 200-day MA. Tests the lower boundary.101.3-0.0% 100?/100.76102.8/102.27
ZARUS$/South African RandRanging beneath the 'Peak' KDR of 18 June.10.7055+0.1% 10.2728/10.530110.9779/10.8626
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarOversold fall reverses. Probes downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.1018.92+0.5% 995.85/1008.551028.51/1023.78
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancRebound pauses beneath the early-June high.0.8922-0.0% 0.8699/0.88570.9156/0.9037
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingPauses the oversold with a (small) 'Trough' KDR.0.7951+0.1% 0.7755/0.7813/0.79150.8153/0.8034
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenRetraces from the 50-day MA back to drop under support at the 200-day MA during Thur.137.9-0.0% 136.23140.09/139.28
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancDrifts within the m-t range.1.214-0.0% 1.20625/1.210441.22975/1.22607
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenPauses the overbought rally from the m-t range (base).173.276-0.2% 169.506/172.382181.4/175.37?
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancOverbought rally pauses with a (small) 'Peak' KDR.1.527-0.1% 1.4969/1.51391.5488/1.5373/1.5367
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenGives up the (small) 'Trough' KDR of 9 July. Renews the s-t retreat to the May/June floor.113.553-0.0% 111.7/113.021117.864/114.959
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenS-t rally pauses by the Apr ceiling.95.125-0.1% 93.043/95.171102.94/96.515
AUDNZDAustralian Dollar/New Zealand DollarContinues the s-t fall past the May low (1.0649) towards the floor of the former base.1.0661+0.1% 1.04931.1036/1.0838
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarPauses the 2014 uptrend.0.9398+0.1% 0.9203/0.93220.9543/0.9505


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