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FX Daily Hotline 
14 April 2015     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: US$ at record highs v Turkish Lira

 

The US Dollar has recorded a 1.6% gain versus the Turkish Lira.  In doing so, the rate shot through the March highs, extending the upward tendency into unchartered territory.  A long trade is established, with the stop inserted beneath short-term uptrend support at the 50-day moving average, at TL2.48.

 

 

Daily Comment:

 

The US Dollar also appears on the 'Gainers' list versus the South African Rand.  Posting a 1.2% gain, the Greenback has rallied to test late-March resistance at R12.2280. 

The 15-year graph reproduced here displays the US unit maintaining the (often choppy) long-term uptrend from the 2010 floor.  The ultimate chart target is the 2001 pinnacle at R13.8401.

The Euro has continued to drift against the US currency.  The single European unit has approached the March floor at US$1.0458.  A clearance of downtrend resistance at the shorter-term MA, near US$1.1000, would be needed to reaffirm that support.  We remain short though, in order to lock in a profit, the stop is tightened to US$1.0620 (just over yesterday's high).

The Euro has dropped under last month's low against the Japanese Yen triggering the opening of a short trade (see Monday's report).  The stop is inserted at Y134.

A short is also established in the British Pound v Yen after the UK unit traded beneath the January/February floor (see yesterday's hotline).  The pattern looks top heavy.  The stop is at Y183.

In contrast, Sterling has bounced versus the weakening Australian Dollar.  Support has been encountered above the 200-day MA once again.  That said, however, there is stiff resistance at the February barrier around A$2.0000, if the Pound can manage to clear the early-April high at A$1.9655 that is.

Shedding 1.2% versus its US counterpart, the Aussie appears to have reasserted the downtrend from the multi-year top formation.  Bears would like to force additional slippage towards next important chart support at the 2009 base area evident between US$0.70-0.60, approx.

 

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
TRYNew Turkish Lira per 1 US Dollar2.6705+1.6%
GBPAUDGBP/Australian Dollar1.9336+1.5%
GBPZARGBP/South African Rand17.8179+1.5%
BRLUS$/Brazilian Real3.1213+1.5%
ZARUS$/South African Rand12.1416+1.2%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
RUBRussian Ruble per 1 US Dollar52.2782-2.4%
BRLGBPBrazilian Real/Pound Sterling0.2182-1.8%
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese Yen91.172-1.3%
TWI ADSPAustralian Dollar Index127.91-1.2%
AUDAustralian Dollar/US Dollar0.7589-1.2%
    
The FX Model Portfolio
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
13 Mar 2015 US$/Canadian Dollar CAD Long 1.2783 1.2596 -1.46% 1.23
10 Apr 2015 Canadian Dollar/Euro CADEUR Long 0.7504 0.7514 +0.13% 0.72
10 Apr 2015 US$/Swedish Krona SEK Long 8.8318 8.8132 -0.21% 8.23
13 Apr 2015 New Turkish Lira per 1 US Dollar TRY Long 2.6705 2.6705 0.00% 2.48
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
19 Mar 2015 Euro/US Dollar EUR Short 1.066 1.0567 +0.87% 1.062
10 Apr 2015 GBP/Canadian Dollar GBPCAD Short 1.8387 1.8486 -0.54% 1.9
10 Apr 2015 British Pound/US Dollar GBPUSD Short 1.4632 1.4676 -0.30% 1.565
13 Apr 2015 Euro/Japanese Yen EURJPY Short 126.91 126.95 -0.03% 134
13 Apr 2015 GBP/Japanese Yen GBPJPY Short 176.29 176.29 0.00% 183
  • Shorts are opened in � and Euro v Yen; and a long in US$ v Turkish Lira (Chart of the Day).
  • The stop on short Euro v US$ is tightened.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexRallies from m-t uptrend support at the 50-day MA to the Mar high near the psychological 100 level.99.465+0.1% 93.25/96.17102.15/100.39
EUREuro/US DollarFalls from downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. Approaches the Mar low.1.0567-0.3% 0.9613/1.04581.1534/1.1052
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarBreaks s-t range support renewing the downtrend towards the 2010 floor.1.4676+0.3% 1.42311.5552/1.5166
CADUS$/Canadian DollarFirms from s-t range support near the 50-day MA.1.2596+0.2% 1.1803/1.23521.3065/1.2835
JPYUS$/Japanese YenExtends the Dec-Apr trading band.120.13-0.1% 113.86/115.57124.14/122.03
ZARUS$/South African RandRallies to late-Mar resistance (12.228). Possibly reasserting the l-t choppy uptrend.12.1416+1.2% 11.3626/11.66912.5252/12.228
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarFinds support at 200-day MA; near the Jan floor.1098.45+0.5% 1072.15/1083.221137.46/1112.4
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancRallies from support near the 200-day MA back towards the Jan-Mar highs.0.978-0.1% 0.8501/0.94811.024/1.0129
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingRetraces the Mar recovery after reaffirming resistance at the 50-day MA.0.72-0.6% 0.6894/0.70140.7592/0.7385
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenRenews the downtrend on the break under the Mar low (126.91).126.95-0.4% 118.73/124.94136.7/131.73
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancRally from the mid-Jan floor was capped by the 'Peak' KDR of 20 Feb. Drifts.1.0332-0.6% 0.8517/0.97761.2097/1.0812
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenTrades under the Jan/Feb floor (175.508) during Mon. Top-heavy.176.29+0.2% 171.077181.066/179.298
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancCorrection from overbought slows.1.4351+0.1% 1.1729/1.4?1.5589/1.5195
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenRecovery from oversold and the 200-day MA slows.123.813+0.2% 114.085/119.917155.367/130.069
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenFinds resistance at the 50-day MA. Retraces the small recovery from the Feb low.91.172-1.3% 89.37794.676/
AUDNZDAustralian Dollar/New Zealand DollarHolds the fall from the 50-day MA and 'Peak' KDR of 11 Mar near record lows. RSI low.1.0196+0.1% /1.0798/1.0531
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarReasserts the downtrend.0.7589-1.2% 0.7451/0.75330.8025/0.7938


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