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FX Daily Hotline 
11 November 2014     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: Euro points to SF1.20...

 

The Euro continues to lose the battle against the Swiss Franc.  On Monday, the latest down leg from resistance at the 200-day moving average was extended, passing the November 2012 floor at SF1.2030 with ease.  The next important chart target is the platform printed earlier that year at SF1.2000.  However, we would point out that the RSI is at a low level, indicating the onset of an oversold condition.

 

Daily Comment:

 

The Euro's recovery from oversold (see low RSI in early October) against the Hungarian Forint has faltered.  Shedding 0.7% on Monday, the single European unit has backed away from the August/mid-September top area, heading for last month's low around HF305.  We will consider selling in the event of a breach for the potential towards the platform near HF302.

The US Dollar has recorded a 0.5% loss against the Malaysian Ringgit for yesterday's session.  Having become overbought, it is natural that the Greenback should recognize prior important resistance at the early-2014 ceiling at MR3.3511.  One would expect to see a correction from here, possibly towards the MR3.3000 region.  However, at the time of writing, the rate trades at MR3.3465.  In the event of a new high for the year, next chart resistance is not far off, at MR3.3665; the May 2010 high.

Similarly, the US currency appears on the 'Losers' list against the South Korean Won, with -0.8%, as it pauses its overbought rally at W1096.88.  That said, the pair have traded over W1097 this morning.  Apparently, bulls would like to eek out further profits in spite of overbought conditions.  There is potential resistance in the W1110 region, from last year's supply starting near that level.

It not only the US$ that is rising against the Japanese Yen this morning, though this rate has already resumed the advance.  Changing hands at Y115.8245 a short time ago, last week's high at Y115.5900 is yielding.  The next chart barrier is at Y117.9500; the October d2007 high.  Nonetheless, we prefer to stand aside, as the RSI is still very much in overbought territory.  Therefore, a deeper correction before long cannot be ruled out just yet.

 

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
BRLGBPBrazilian Real/Pound Sterling0.2478+0.6%
LACILatin America Dollar Index86.8+0.5%
CADUS$/Canadian Dollar1.1381+0.5%
MXNUS$/Mexican Peso13.61+0.5%
SEKUS$/Swedish Krona7.4329+0.4%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
RUBRussian Ruble per 1 US Dollar45.6141-2.4%
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US Dollar1084.95-0.8%
EURHUFEuro/Hungarian Forint307.22-0.7%
MYRUS$/Malaysian Ringgit3.3305-0.5%
AUDBRLAustralian Dollar/Brazilian Real2.2-0.4%
    
The FX Model Portfolio
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
16 Oct 2014 Euro/Australian Dollar EURAUD Long 1.46 1.4406 -1.33% 1.42
23 Oct 2014 Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar AUDNZD Long 1.1199 1.1125 -0.66% 1.095
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
14 Oct 2014 Canadian Dollar/Mexican Peso CADMXN Short 11.9013 11.9579 -0.48% 12.15
27 Oct 2014 Brazilian Real/Pound Sterling BRLGBP Short 0.2461 0.2478 -0.69% 0.2650
28 Oct 2014 Swedish Krona Trade Weighted TWI SKSP Short 108.99 109.38 -0.36% 112
6 Nov 2014 Australian Dollar/US Dollar AUD Short 0.8616 0.8627 -0.13% 0.895
  • We watch to sell Euro v Hungarian Forint.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexOverbought uptrend towards the 2008-2010 peaks slows.87.81+0.2% 83.864/84.47289.624/88.708
EUREuro/US DollarDowntrend towards the 2012 base area slows.1.2421-0.3% 1.2134/1.22421.2995/1.2886
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarHolds the downtrend though intraday support is noted at 1.5791.1.5842-0.2% 1.54291.6416/1.6227
CADUS$/Canadian DollarPossibly reasserting the uptrend after a brief correction from overbought.1.1381+0.5% 1.1072/1.11221.1725/1.1467
JPYUS$/Japanese YenOverbought rally slows.114.86+0.2% 103.56/105.23117.95
ZARUS$/South African RandRally from the June/early-Sept band finds intraday resistance at the early-Oct high.11.2739+0.0% 11.166/10.827411.8723/11.3909
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarOverbought ally from the 50 and 200-day MA; and prior m-t base finds intraday resistance at 1096.88. Failed break over the early-2014 highs (1089.71).1084.95-0.8% 1038.4/1045.581127.65/1096.88
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancRally from uptrend support at the 50-day MA pauses by the Jul 2013 high (0.9751).0.9682+0.2% 0.9301/0.93680.9839/0.9751
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingPullback from overbought; the Sept high; and 200-day MA pauses by the late-Sept/early-Oct floor, which is close to the 2012 low (0.7755).0.784-0.1% 0.7694/0.77550.8153/0.8066
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenOverbought rally finds intraday resistance at 144.22. Failed break over the Mar/Apr ceiling.142.66-0.0% 134.11/135.21145.69/144.22
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancExtends the decline past the Nov 2012 floor (1.203) towards that year's earlier floor at 1.2. RSI low.1.2026-0.1% 1.21.214/1.2058
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenOverbought rally finds intraday resistance at 184.329.181.962+0.0% 168.026/171.077197.453
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancRally from oversold and Sept support pauses beneath the early-Oct peak.1.5338+0.0% 1.4766/1.49691.5692/1.5536
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenOverbought rally finds intraday resistance at 119.787. Next chart resistance is at the Nov 1982 high.118.632+0.0% 111.231/112.123126.38/119.787
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenOverbought rally struggles near the psychological 100 level.99.029+0.1% 91.085/91.764102.94/100?
AUDNZDAustralian Dollar/New Zealand DollarDid not maintain the nudge over the Sept/Oct ceiling (1.1296). 'Bull trap' fall towards the Oct floor; near the highs of the broad range.1.1125-0.1% 1.0919/1.09841.1586/1.1313
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarPauses the decline with a 'Trough' KDR.0.8627+0.1% 0.8067/0.8316/0.85410.9112/0.8911


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