FX Daily Hotline
Currencies had already started to recover against the Japanese Yen, often the declines had become oversold, such as for the British Pound shown on the right. Note the very low level of the RSI indicator this month to this effect. The Bank of Japan's decision to introduce a negative interest rate (-0.1% for the benchmark rate), for the first time, has quickened the short-term rally this morning, where Sterling was trading at Y173.525 a short time ago. The rate is heading for potential resistance at the 50-day Moving Average. That line currently stands around Y175.90.
The Australian Dollar appears on the 'Gainers' list versus the US Dollar with +0.8%. The Aussie has extended its recovery from oversold within the prior medium-term trading band. The failed break under that range has also raised hopes for a further 'bear trap' rally, possibly towards the upper boundary near US$0.74. One observes that the 200-day Moving Average is close to that barrier, and may also offer resistance when/if it is approached.
The Greenback has extended its correction from overbought against the Canadian Dollar. The rate probes potential support in the C$1.40-1.38 area; near the 50-day MA. We will consider buying the US unit if support is established hereabouts (see also hotlines for 25 and 27 January), especially should that occur on a dynamic up move.
Recording a 2.3% loss, the US currency has continued to unwind from the overbought all-time high against the Russian Ruble. That peak was plotted at RR85.9573 on 21st of the month. The pullback approaches potential support at the shorter-term MA line, which is currently drawn near RR73.2000.
The US$ similarly reacts from the overbought all-time high versus the Mexican Peso. That pinnacle was also drawn on 21 January, at MP18.8024. The move through MP18.4000 on Thursday has generated a bearish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner. While some further correction is possible over the short term, on a longer-term basis, one would point out that uptrend support has been offered by the 100-day MA since August 2014.
This morning, one notes that the Euro is experiencing an off day (The main exception is against Japan's Yen.) The example is against the British Pound, where the single European unit was trading at �0.7573 a little while ago. The Euro is potentially reasserting the correction from the overbought high at �0.7756.
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||84.174||+0.9%|
|GBPUSD||British Pound/US Dollar||1.4362||+0.9%|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||0.7084||+0.8%|
|RUB||Russian Ruble per 1 US Dollar||76.3||-2.3%|
|ZAR||US$/South African Rand||16.1978||-1.5%|
|TRY||New Turkish Lira per 1 US Dollar||2.9692||-1.1%|
|EURZAR||Euro/South African Rand||17.7132||-1.1%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|11 Jan 2016||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||KRW||Long||1208.72||1208.55||-0.01%||1160|
|18 Jan 2016||US$/Norwegian Krone||NOK||Long||8.9011||8.6135||-3.23%||8.4|
- We watch to buy US$ v C$.
|DXY||US Dollar Index||S-t gradual ranging advance slows on the approach to stiff resistance at the early-December high.||98.614||-0.4%||96.466/97.19||100.51|
|EUR||Euro/US Dollar||Ranging beneath resistance near the 'Peak' KDR of 15 Dec following the early-Dec upward dynamic.||1.094||+0.4%||1.0524/1.0711||1.1495/1.106|
|GBPUSD||British Pound/US Dollar||Renews the small recovery from oversold.||1.4362||+0.9%||1.3503/1.408||1.5242/1.4969|
|CAD||US$/Canadian Dollar||Correction from overbought probes potential support starting near 1.4.||1.4029||-0.5%||1.2832/1.3802||1.4948/1.469|
|JPY||US$/Japanese Yen||Reasserts the recovery from prior support at the late-Nov 2014 low (115.57).||118.82||+0.1%||105.23/115.57||123.76/118.38|
|ZAR||US$/South African Rand||Drifting beneath the overbought all-time high.||16.1978||-1.5%||14.8084/16.3569||17.9169|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||Reasserts the uptrend after correcting from overbought.||1208.55||+0.5%||1162.4/1192.02||1277.85/1242.53/1216.23|
|CHF||US$/Swiss Franc||Holds the ranging s-t advance from the Dec low towards the late-Nov high.||1.0138||-0.1%||0.9476/0.9786||1.0328/1.0125|
|EURGBP||Euro/Pounds Sterling||Possibly reasserting the advance after the correction from overbought.||0.7618||-0.5%||0.7305/0.7526||0.7875/0.7756|
|EURJPY||Euro/Japanese Yen||Recovery from the April 2015 floor (126.1) probes potential resistance near 130.||129.99||+0.5%||118.73/126.1||134.6/130?|
|EURCHF||Euro/Swiss Franc||Extends the overbought rally from the m-t range.||1.1092||+0.3%||1.0531/1.0713||1.2097|
|GBPJPY||GBP/Japanese Yen||Recovers from oversold having found support near the Feb 2014 low (163.889).||170.648||+1.0%||163.889/163.986||188.813|
|GBPCHF||GBP/Swiss Franc||Reasserts the counter rally from oversold. Probes supply starting near the sideways area around 1.46.||1.456||+0.8%||1.3817/1.4121||1.4944/1.4646?|
|CHFJPY||Sfr/Japanese Yen||Oversold decline from the Dec ceiling finds support at 115.353.||117.208||+0.3%||114.085/115.353?||124.048/118.939|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||Recovery from oversold probes potential resistance at the 50-day MA.||84.174||+0.9%||74.482/79.217||90.728/83.529?|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||'Bear trap' recovery from oversold. Points towards resistance near the 200-day MA.||0.7084||+0.8%||0.6771/0.6827||0.744/0.049|
Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.