FX Daily Hotline
The Swiss Franc clawed back some of its earlier weakness during Tuesday's session. The British Pound, for instance, had managed to break above the April high at SF1.4646, and the 200-day moving average. However, intraday resistance arrived at SF1.4661 with the rate closing near the lower side of the daily range. This action potentially has near-term 'bull trap' scope towards SF1.4400, which is near the shorter-term MA line. Nonetheless, we hold onto the long trade in Sterling, as the multi-month base evident on the chart should cushion risk and ultimately lead to higher levels.
The US Dollar has violated support at the 200-day moving average against the Canadian Dollar. The fall through C$1.0050 activates the stoploss (1.71%) on the long trade held in the pairing. That positioned is reversed for the initial scope towards parity and possibly the earlier February low at C$0.9933 thereafter (see yesterday's hotline). The stop is placed at C$1.0200.
Weakness in the Australian Dollar continued throughout Tuesday. The Aussie appears in the 'Losers' table again versus its Canadian counterpart, as support at the December-February floor crumbled.
However, the oversold (see RSI) decline is accelerating. This is a trend-ending feature, though the turning point is difficult to predict. There is some support nearby, at C$1.0162; the 23 October low. Otherwise, the stronger platform is at that month's earlier trough evident between C$1.0100-0.9925, approx.
The Australian unit extended its decline versus the New Zealand Dollar. A bounce did occur at the daily low, NZ$1.1958, which is close to the October 2009 floor at NZ$1.1934. Still, a more forceful move would be required to reaffirm support in that region.
The Antipodean currencies both appear in the 'Losers' column versus the Japanese Yen. The Aussie's pattern is worth commenting upon because uptrend support at the 50-day MA is under scrutiny again. Note that that line is currently situated close to the sideways trading at the psychological Y100 number. Should that support fail, bears will try to force further weakness towards the April low at Y96.917.
|BRLGBP||Brazilian Real/Pound Sterling||0.3216||+0.6%|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||100.829||-1.0%|
|NZDJPY||New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen||83.728||-1.0%|
|AUDCAD||Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar||1.0228||-0.9%|
|AUDBRL||Australian Dollar/Brazilian Real||2.045||-0.8%|
|TWI ADSP||Australian Dollar Index||150.71||-0.7%|
P&F Breakouts: May 7, 2013.
Latin America Dollar Index
Bull 106.80 108.90 105.60 106.83 TWI SFSP
Swiss Franc Index
Bear 130.80 129.15 132.10 131.02
Key Day Reversals : May 07, 2013None found
MA Crossovers : May 07, 2013
Code Name Signal Latest Close Change AUDBRL Australian Dollar/Brazilian Real Dead 2.04 -0.02
Moving Average (MA) crossovers identify longer-term changes of trend. We scan for "Golden" (bullish) and "Dead" (bearish) signals occurring when an instrumentís 50-day MA crosses its 200-day MA.
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|24 Apr 2013||New Zealand Dollar/Swiss Franc||NZDCHF||Long||0.8027||0.7952||-0.93%||0.785|
|2 May 2013||GBP/Swiss Franc||GBPCHF||Long||1.4523||1.456||+0.25%||1.4225|
|6 May 2013||GBP/Japanese Yen||GBPJPY||Long||154.344||153.286||-0.69%||144|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|27 Mar 2013||Euro/Pounds Sterling||EURGBP||Short||0.84448||0.84469||-0.02%||0.865|
|7 May 2013||US$/Canadian Dollar||CAD||Short||1.005||1.0042||+0.08%||1.02|
- The stoploss is hit on long US$ v C$; and that trade is reversed.
|DXY||US Dollar Index||Jumps back into the s-t range (bear trap).||82.253||-0.1%||80.271/81.331||84.1/83.508|
|EUR||Euro/US Dollar||April recovery yields to ranging between 1.295 and 1.325, approx.||1.3079||+0.0%||1.2746/1.2955||1.3319/1.3243|
|GBPUSD||British Pound/US Dollar||S-t uptrend slows by potential resistance from the 200-day MA.||1.5484||-0.4%||1.5034/1.5197||1.5892|
|CAD||US$/Canadian Dollar||Breaks support at the 200-day MA. Develops downtrend towards parity.||1.0042||-0.3%||0.9933/1||1.0294/1.0132|
|JPY||US$/Japanese Yen||Holds the advance. Trades beneath resistance at the psychological 100 level.||99||-0.3%||92.57/95.8||101.45/99.95|
|ZAR||US$/South African Rand||Uptrend flattens beneath the Mar high.||9.0305||+0.4%||8.7717/8.8582||9.811/9.3666|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||S-t downtrend continues.||1091.45||-0.3%||1076.23||1144.82/1125.48|
|CHF||US$/Swiss Franc||Rallies towards this year's earlier highs.||0.9403||+0.2%||0.9207/0.9247||0.9636/0.9567|
|EURGBP||Euro/Pounds Sterling||Pauses the downtrend from the Feb/Mar ceiling.||0.84469||+0.4%||0.82662/0.8398?||0.86369/0.84978|
|EURJPY||Euro/Japanese Yen||Retests resistance at the early-Apr overbought high.||129.48||-0.3%||118.73/124.94||134.57/131.12|
|EURCHF||Euro/Swiss Franc||Rallies back to the Apr high.||1.22984||+0.2%||1.21196/1.21962||1.23908/1.2349|
|GBPJPY||GBP/Japanese Yen||Holds the uptrend towards the 2009 ceiling.||153.286||-0.7%||146.456/149.975||163.09|
|GBPCHF||GBP/Swiss Franc||Did not maintain the break over the Apr high, at 1.4646 (and the 200-day MA). Potential 'bull trap' towards 1.44 (and the 50-day MA).||1.456||-0.1%||1.4074/1.4412?||1.5005/1.4661?|
|CHFJPY||Sfr/Japanese Yen||Advance yields to ranging beneath the early-Apr overbought high (107.446).||105.276||-0.5%||97.426/102.9||108.75/107.446|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||Drifts back to uptrend support at the 50-day MA.||100.829||-1.0%||98.754/99.291||107.873/105.433|
|AUDNZD||Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar||Oversold decline to the Oct 2009 low (1.1934). Intraday support arrives at 1.1958.||1.2042||0.00%||1.1756/1.1934||1.27/1.2312|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||Declines from sideways resistance along 1.06 to the lower boundary of the huge trading band (top?).||1.0186||+0.0%||0.9969/1.0115||1.0599/1.0398|
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