FX Daily Hotline
The Swiss Franc gave up some of its recent gains on Monday.
The decline by the Euro had become oversold (note the low level of the RSI). Also, the August fall had gathered speed. Acceleration can be a trend-ending feature.
Yesterday's counter bounce, from SF1.2086, took the single European currency back over prior support around SF1.2100. This gives rise to 'bear trap' recovery hopes over the near term, possibly towards the SF1.2150 region.
The Australian Dollar versus Swiss Franc was the subject of yesterday's Chart of the Day section. The Aussie went on to gain 0.5% on Monday, with uptrend support at the 50-day moving average remaining intact.
The Australian Dollar recently encountered support at the 200-day moving average versus the Japanese Yen. The Aussie's rally has approached the upper side of the multi-month trading band/base at Y96.515. We will consider buying a breakout for the upside potential towards the psychological Y100 area (see also hotlines for 5 and 14 August).
The British Pound has recorded a 0.6% gain versus the Norwegian Krone. The decline from the short-term top had become oversold. Still, there is not much strength attached to the bounce, which would have confirmed new support at NK10.2349. Therefore, in the absence of an upward dynamic, there remains the risk of renewed slippage for Sterling after it has corrected the oversold condition.
The 'bull trap' reaction by the Euro versus the Mexican Peso, which followed the failed break over the late-June/early-July highs, is approaching sideways support at the October-July floor at MP17.3376. Should that area fail to provide a lift, the next important chart support is around MP17. We would consider selling the European unit in the event of a breach (of MP17.3376) for that potential.
|AUDCHF||Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc||0.8453||+0.5%|
|RUB||Russian Ruble per 1 US Dollar||36.0546||-0.4%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|8 Aug 2014||Euro/Canadian Dollar||EURCAD||Long||1.4715||1.455||-1.12%||1.4375|
- We watch to buy A$ v Yen and sell Euro v Mexican Peso.
|DXY||US Dollar Index||Overbought rally pauses at 81.717.||81.576||+0.2%||79.976/81.188||82.671/81.717|
|EUR||Euro/US Dollar||Oversold decline pauses above the November floor.||1.3364||-0.3%||1.3296/1.3333||1.37/1.3445?|
|GBPUSD||British Pound/US Dollar||Oversold s-t fall slows near the 200-day MA.||1.6728||-0.1%||1.646/1.6556||1.7192/1.6889|
|CAD||US$/Canadian Dollar||Overbought rally towards the late-Apr barrier (1.1055) slows.||1.0887||-0.1%||1.0561/1.0621||1.1279/1.1055|
|JPY||US$/Japanese Yen||Extends the multi-month range forming above the 200-day MA; between 101-104, approx.||102.57||+0.2%||100.76||104.13/103.09|
|ZAR||US$/South African Rand||Support at the June-Aug range lows; near the 200-day MA, holds.||10.6036||+0.1%||10.2728/10.4658||10.9779/10.8626|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||Ranging recovery falters. Points back to the early-July floor.||1017.8||+0.1%||1008.55||1044.66/1041.25|
|CHF||US$/Swiss Franc||Overbought rally has paused beneath the January high.||0.9065||+0.4%||0.8898/0.9041?||0.9156/0.9115|
|EURGBP||Euro/Pounds Sterling||Recovery pauses by the late-June high. Potential base extension.||0.7989||-0.5%||0.7813/0.7874||0.8153/0.8034|
|EURJPY||Euro/Japanese Yen||Failed break under the Feb low (136.23). Edges up to downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||137.07||-0.1%||134.11/135.73||139.28/138.03|
|EURCHF||Euro/Swiss Franc||Counter move from oversold. Did not maintain the break under the Mar floor at 1.21044 (bear trap).||1.2115||+0.2%||1.20302/1.20625/1.2086||1.22975/1.22607|
|GBPJPY||GBP/Japanese Yen||The 'bull trap' reaction (following the failed nudge over the Jan high) slows near the Apr/May floor.||171.578||+0.4%||167.78/169.506||181.4/175.37|
|GBPCHF||GBP/Swiss Franc||S-t fall slows on the way to the early-June low.||1.5164||+0.6%||1.4766/1.4969||1.5692/1.5488|
|CHFJPY||Sfr/Japanese Yen||Edges up from prior support at the Feb floor. Passes downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA and the early-Aug high (113.475).||113.146||-0.2%||108.883/111.7||114.959/114.69|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||Finds support near the 200-day MA. Points back to resistance at the top of the Apr-Aug range (base?).||95.645||+0.2%||93.043/93.929||102.94/96.515|
|AUDNZD||Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar||Overbought July rally yields to ranging around the June ceiling.||1.0997||+0.1%||1.0624/1.0925||1.123/1.1054|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||Rangebound between 0.95-0.92, approx. Edges up from the lower boundary to question top theory.||0.9339||+0.2%||0.9203||0.9543/0.9505|
Copyright 2014 by Stockcube Research Ltd.