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FX Daily Hotline 
23 September 2015     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: Sterling appears top heavy v US$


The British Pound has recorded a 0.9% loss against the US Dollar for Tuesday's session.  The graph displays that a good portion of this month's earlier rally has now been retraced.  What is more serious, however, is that the pattern since May is looking increasingly top heavy.  Should a breach in support along the US$1.5100 occur, a test of the year's earlier, and much smaller, base area is likely.  That region stretches down to US$1.4566. 


Daily Comment:


Against the Japanese Yen, the British Pound has recorded a 1.2% loss, as it retreats from the 50-day Moving Average.  A push past recent resistance at Y188.316 would be required to remove the danger of a further retracement of this month's earlier rally from the Y180 region.

Other currencies are also struggling versus Japan's unit.  The Australian Dollar, for instance, shed 0.9% yesterday, as it continued its 'bull trap' reaction (following the failed break over the late-August high).  A clearance of the resistance near the 50-day MA would be needed in order to offset current scope for further slippage towards the lows near Y82.

The Swiss Franc has reasserted the downtrend from the June ceiling v Yen, after plotting a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal on Friday from Y125.291.  Both the long and short-term MAs appear to be acting as a barrier now; and a sustained break over those lines is necessary to interrupt the downward tendency.

The US Dollar Trade Weighted Index has firmed within the wide trading band to challenge early-September resistance at 96.616.  A breakout will leave the August high at 98.455 as the next chart target.  At the time of writing, the US$ is up against all six members.

Against the Mexican Peso, the Greenback registered a 1.3% gain on Wednesday.  The 50-day MA has offered uptrend support, as the rate points back to the overbought August, and all-time, high at MP17.3056.


Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
BRLUS$/Brazilian Real4.0503+1.6%
ZARUS$/South African Rand13.6795+1.5%
MXNUS$/Mexican Peso16.885+1.3%
EURZAREuro/South African Rand15.2106+0.9%
USDGBPUS Dollar/British Pound0.6508+0.9%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
LACILatin America Dollar Index65.03-1.4%
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese Yen184.625-1.2%
EURJPYEuro/Japanese Yen133.6-1.0%
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese Yen85.185-0.9%
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US Dollar1.5365-0.9%
The FX Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
25 Aug 2015 US$/Canadian Dollar CAD Long 1.3336 1.3272 -0.48% 1.26
7 Sep 2015 GBP/Singaporean Dollar GBPSGD Long 2.1808 2.1768 -0.18% 2.085
  • There are no changes today.


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexFirms to test the early-Sept high (96.616); within the broad trading band.96.329+0.5% 92.621/94.06398.455/96.616
EUREuro/US DollarRetraces to test the early-Sept low (1.1087); within the wide trading band.1.112-0.6% 1.0809/1.10871.1714/1.146
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarDrops within the m-t trading band (potential top).1.5365-0.9% 1.4857/1.50891.5945/1.593
CADUS$/Canadian DollarReasserts the advance towards the May 2004 peak near 1.2862/1.29521.4002/1.382/1.3384
JPYUS$/Japanese YenRanging after the recovery from oversold and the Dec/Jan floor.120.15-0.3% 115.57/116.18124.48/121.75
ZARUS$/South African RandReverses the fall from overbought and the Aug all-time high. Finds support near the 50-day MA.13.6795+1.5% 12.2993/12.982814.0682
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarRallies from late-Jul/early-Aug support (1155.79). Possibly reasserting the uptrend.1179.17+0.4% 1097.47/1155.791242.53/1208.72
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancJumps back up towards the Aug high (0.9903).0.9751+0.3% 0.9259/0.95281.0129/0.9903/0.9824
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingFalls out of the s-t range forming beneath the May high (0.7483). Potential m-t base extension.0.7237+0.3% 0.69360.7592/0.7483
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenRetraces the recovery from oversold. Potential top.133.6-1.0% 132.23139/137.45
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancGradual uptrend pauses.1.0846-0.3% 1.0234/1.05311.2097/1.105
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenRecovery from oversold stalls near the 50-day MA.184.625-1.2% 180.242190/188.316
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancS-t rally slows beneath the overbought Aug high.1.4983-0.6% 1.4467/1.46051.5589/1.5411
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenCounter move from oversold is checked with a 'Peak' KDR. Reasserts the downtrend from the June ceiling.123.221-0.7% 119.917/121.952?129.07/125.29
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenFinds resistance at 87.514; near the 50-day MA. Failed break over the late-Aug high (87.341). Potential 'bull trap'.85.185-0.9% 79.315/81.92592.432/87.514
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarRecovery from oversold; and the upper side of the 2008/2009 base, finds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.0.7089-0.6% 0.6009/0.6771/0.68960.744/0.728

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