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FX Daily Hotline 
11 May 2015     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: Ł strongly renews rally v Yen

 

Spurred by the euphoria that followed Thursday's election, the British Pound jumped up generally.  Against the Japanese Yen, a 1.4% gain was recorded for Friday's session, as the UK unit renewed the short-term rally and also traded above the February ceiling near Y185.  This leaves the yearend highs at Y187.803, plotted on 29 December, and Y189.714, drawn on 5 of that month, as the next chart targets.  We would point out, however, that the RSI is back in overbought territory.

 

 

Daily Comment:

 

A 2.3% gain was registered by the British Pound against the Swiss Franc.  The chart shows Sterling reversing the short-term decline from the 'Peak' Key Day Reversal high of 29 April at SF1.4711.  The failed break under the March/April floor gives rise to 'bear trap' hopes for a further recovery back towards that barrier over the near term.

One notes, that at the time of writing, the UK currency is up 1.32% versus the New Zealand Dollar.  Changing hands at NZ$2.0890 a little while ago, the Pound has reached up towards the late-2011 to early-2015 ceiling at NZ$2.1058.  The RSI is overbought, though, should an eventual breakout occur, a huge base will be in place.  We will consider buying Sterling if that should ultimately happen.

The Euro has shed 1.4% against the South African Rand.  This has taken the rate back beneath the sideways area along R13.5000.  Unless a quick reversal occurs, there is a danger of a further 'bull trap' decline towards support within the R13 region, though one notes potential support beforehand from former resistance at the 50-day MA.

This bearish action is observed by the single European currency versus Mexican Peso.  Appearing a second time in the 'Losers' list v Peso, the Euro has confirmed the failed break over the February ceiling.  If the shorter-term MA fails to convert into support, the rate could fall towards next possible support in the MP16.50 area.

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss Franc1.4383+2.3%
GBPEURGBP/Euro1.3776+1.8%
TWI BPSPUK Sterling Index87.75+1.6%
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese Yen185.088+1.4%
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US Dollar1.5455+1.4%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
EURMXNEuro/Mexican Peso16.9343-1.9%
EURGBPEuro/Pounds Sterling0.7251-1.9%
BRLUS$/Brazilian Real2.9746-1.7%
EURZAREuro/South African Rand13.3615-1.4%
MXNUS$/Mexican Peso15.1208-1.3%
    
The FX Model Portfolio
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
5 May 2015 Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen AUDJPY Long 95.187 94.983 -0.21% 91
5 May 2015 Australian Dollar/US Dollar AUD Long 0.7942 0.7932 -0.13% 0.75
6 May 2015 Euro/Pounds Sterling EURGBP Long 0.74 0.7251 -2.01% 0.71
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
27 Apr 2015 US$/Canadian Dollar CAD Short 1.2086 1.2071 +0.12% 1.25
28 Apr 2015 Euro/Australian Dollar EURAUD Short 1.37 1.4127 -3.12% 1.45
28 Apr 2015 South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar KRW Short 1072.15 1088.34 -1.51% 1105
  • We watch to buy � v NZ$.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexHolds the oversold fall from the s-t top near the Feb floor (93.25).94.794+0.2% 87.627/93.25100.39/95.946
EUREuro/US DollarOverbought rally towards the Feb ceiling (1.1534) slows.1.1199-0.6% 1.0458/1.10661.1679/1.1534
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarJumps up to test resistance at the Feb high; near the 200-day MA.1.5455+1.4% 1.4566/1.50891.5826/1.5552
CADUS$/Canadian DollarPauses the fall from the s-t top.1.2071-0.5% 1.1192/1.1803/1.19411.2835/1.2306
JPYUS$/Japanese YenExtends the Dec-May trading band.119.76+0.0% 113.86/115.57124.14/122.03
ZARUS$/South African RandHolds the l-t choppy uptrend.11.9183-1.0% 11.3626/11.66912.5252
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarCounter move from oversold.1088.34-0.1% 1045.58/1065.21?1112.4/1102
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancOversold fall from the s-t top finds intraday support at 0.9072.0.9303+0.9% 0.85011.0129/0.9863
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingFalls back into the base.0.7251-1.9% 0.7014/0.71180.7592/0.7483
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenOverbought recovery slows slightly by the Feb ceiling and 200-day MA.134.18-0.5% 124.94/126.1137.64/136.7
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancRemains penned in by resistance from the 50-day MA.1.0427+0.4% 0.9776/1.02341.2097/1.0812
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenStrongly renews the s-t rally. RSI overbought again.185.088+1.4% 174.884/180.96187.803
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancReverses the fall from the 'Peak' KDR of 29 Apr.1.4383+2.3% 1.28391.38171.5195/1.4711
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenRecovery from oversold and the 200-day MA slows.123.813+0.2% 114.085/119.917155.367/130.069
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenConsolidates the base breakout.94.983+0.3% 89.377/93.58497.396/95.952
AUDNZDAustralian Dollar/New Zealand DollarHolds the fall from the 50-day MA and 'Peak' KDR of 11 Mar near record lows. RSI low.1.0196+0.1% /1.0798/1.0531
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarConsolidates the move over the s-t band/base.0.7932+0.3% 0.7533/0.77880.8295/0.8076


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