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FX Daily Hotline 
16 May 2016     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: US$ tests the late-March high v SA Rand


The US Dollar, Euro and British Pound all appear on the 'Gainers' board against the South African Rand for Friday's session.  The US unit is the only currency to extend its recovery.  Also, the move through R15.3600 produced a bullish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner.

This Bar chart spans trading over the last nine months and displays the Greenback launching a recovery, after becoming oversold in April, from the sideways area along R14.  The rate currently probes late-March resistance, at R15.6257.  A clearance will have the February to mid-March ceiling, around R16.5000, to aim for.


Daily Comment:


The US Dollar reasserted its recovery from oversold against the Canadian Dollar before the weekend.  The chart shows the rate probing short-term downtrend resistance at the 50-day Moving Average, near C$1.3000.  A breakout will have resistance near the longer-term MA line to aim for, at C$1.3219, which is the early-April high.

The US currency has similarly reasserted its recovery rally against the Mexican Peso.  Gaining 1.1%, the rate potentially develops support near the sideways area along MP18.  A clearance of late-February resistance at MP18.3717 will renew the rally from sideways support around MP17; and the 200-day MA, towards the all-time high at MP19.4448, plotted on 11 February.

The US$ is currently trading at W1176.55 against the South Korean Won.  This means that it is resuming the recovery towards the early-2016 top that starts around W1190.  One notes that initial support has developed near both the long and short-term MAs near W1160.

On Friday, the US$ Trade Weighted Index extended the counter move from oversold to test resistance near the 50-day MA, at the April ceiling (95.20).  The longer-term picture remains top heavy.  At the time of writing, the US$ is up against only two of the six members (marginally up v Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc).

Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar lost 1.1% against the Japanese Yen for Friday's session.  Partially retracing the rebound from the February platform, the Aussie would have to maintain a jump past initial resistance at Y80.66 to indicate continuing support at that low; at Y77.592.  Should it ultimately yield, next chart support is at Y74.482; the mid-2012 floor.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
ZARUS$/South African Rand15.4038+2.7%
EURZAREuro/South African Rand17.4305+2.0%
GBPZARGBP/South African Rand22.12+1.9%
BRLUS$/Brazilian Real3.5335+1.4%
MXNUS$/Mexican Peso18.1705+1.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese Yen78.99-1.1%
LACILatin America Dollar Index63.86-1.0%
EURJPYEuro/Japanese Yen122.85-0.9%
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese Yen156.044-0.9%
BRLGBPBrazilian Real/Pound Sterling0.1972-0.8%
The FX Model Portfolio
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
28 Apr 2016 New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar NZD Long 0.6962 0.6775 -2.69% 0.665
2 May 2016 British Pound/US Dollar GBPUSD Long 1.4668 1.4365 -2.07% 1.3975
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
28 Apr 2016 US$/Japanese Yen JPY Short 108.11 108.63 -0.48% 113
2 May 2016 US Dollar Index DXY Short 93 94.608 -1.73% 95.5
  • There are no changes today.
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexS-t counter move from oversold probes resistance near the 50-day MA. L-t top heavy.94.608+0.5% 87.627/91.514/91.91996.399/95.2
EUREuro/US DollarRenews the correction from overbought. Probes potential support from the 50-day MA.1.1309-0.6% 1.1058/1.11441.1714/1.1616
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarRenews the s-t fall from the 200-day MA and 'Peak' KDR of 3 May within the prior base.1.4365-0.6% 1.3836/1.40061.5242/1.4969/1.477
CADUS$/Canadian DollarReasserts the counter move from oversold to s-t downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.1.294+0.7% 1.2128/1.24611.3219/1.3015
JPYUS$/Japanese YenSmall recovery from the Oct 2014 floor (105.23) struggles on the approach to the 50-day MA.108.63-0.4% 103.56/105.23114.87/111.91
ZARUS$/South African RandExtends the recovery to the late-Mar high (15.6257).15.4038+2.7% 13.0117/13.89116.4361/15.6257
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarReasserts the recovery to the early-2016 top.1171.47+0.8% 1128.43/1161.561217.1/1195.3
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancReasserts the 'Bear trap' recovery to the late-Apr high (0.9797); close to the 200-day MA.0.9755+0.5% 0.9259/0.94440.9914/0.9797
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingSmall recovery from the late-Apr low pauses. Potential top?0.7874+0.0% 0.7652/0.77350.8259/0.8153/0.8117
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenSmall 'Bear trap' recovery pauses.122.85-0.9% 118.73/121.46?128.22/126.47
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancPauses the rally beneath the early-Feb peak at 1.0843/1.09551.2097/1.12/1.1109
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenExtends the late-Feb/May range. Potential base.156.044-0.9% 147.109/151.659166.092/164.107
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancRanging beneath the mid-February/March ceiling (1.4318). Potential base.1.4011-0.1% 1.3415/1.38191.4768/1.4318
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenSmall recovery struggles beneath the 'Peak' KDR of 28 Apr (115.018).111.383-0.8% 108.883115.018/112.582
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenReasserts the fall from the range/base highs; near the 200-day MA, to the lower boundary at the Feb floor (77.592).78.99-1.1% 74.482/77.59290.728/88.621/86.706
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarExtends the s-t fall within the multi-month trading band/base.0.7271-0.7% 0.6974/0.79090.8164/0.7849

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