FX Daily Hotline
The New Zealand Dollar has tried to launch a recovery rally after becoming oversold against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Posting a 0.4% gain versus both, the Kiwi possesses a similar picture for these rates.
Against the US currency, the NZ$ has bounced from the June low near US$0.84, a sideways region spanning the chart. Versus the Japanese unit, the May floor around Y86 has provided the lift (also a lateral region).
Still, Thursday's action is hardly dynamic. In the absence of a more forceful up move, there remains the risk of a renewal of the decline from this year's highs near US$0.88 and Y90. We will consider selling both rates in the event that support along US$0.84 and Y86 yields, as the patterns would look rather top heavy.
The Swiss Franc has continued to edge up from the February floor against the Japanese Yen. The small recovery, from around Y112, has reached downtrend resistance at the 50-day moving average; at the prior recovery high at Y113.475. In the event of a clearance, the next chart target is the June/July ceiling near Y115.
The Euro has also lost ground against the Swissie. If this year's earlier low, around SF1.21 fails to hold up the single European currency, the pair could slide towards the 2012 floor, near SF1.20.
The Euro has recorded a 0.5% loss against the Mexican Peso. The rate appears to be fulfilling the 'bull trap' scope (following the failed break over sideways trading near MP17.80) towards the floor near MP17.40.
The Brazilian Real has posted a 0.4% gain versus the British Pound. The Real has lifted off the £0.2600 region once again. However, as discussed on a number of occasions over the last few months, the 200-day MA has depressed the rate numerous times. A sustained push over the April high at £0.2731 would be required to restart this year's earlier recovery by the Brazilian currency.
|TWI NDSP||New Zealand Dollar Index||156.26||+0.4%|
|BRLGBP||Brazilian Real/Pound Sterling||0.2638||+0.4%|
|NZDJPY||New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen||87.007||+0.4%|
|NZD||New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar||0.8493||+0.4%|
|TWI SKSP||Swedish Krona Trade Weighted||111.37||+0.3%|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||1020.93||-0.8%|
|INR||Indian Rupee per 1 US Dollar||60.77||-0.7%|
|PHP||Philippines Peso per 1 US Dollar||43.67||-0.7%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|8 Aug 2014||Euro/Canadian Dollar||EURCAD||Long||1.4715||1.4571||-0.98%||1.4375|
- We watch to sell NZ$ v US$ and/or NZ$ v Yen (see Chart of the Day section).
|DXY||US Dollar Index||Overbought rally pauses at 81.717.||81.588||-0.0%||79.976/81.188||82.671/81.717|
|EUR||Euro/US Dollar||Oversold decline pauses above the November floor.||1.3365||+0.0%||1.3296/1.3333||1.37/1.3445?|
|GBPUSD||British Pound/US Dollar||Sharply renews the s-t fall, breaking the May floor (1.6693). RSI oversold again.||1.6686||-0.0%||1.646/1.6556||1.7192/1.6889|
|CAD||US$/Canadian Dollar||Overbought rally towards the late-Apr barrier (1.1055) slows.||1.0902||-0.1%||1.0561/1.0621||1.1279/1.1055|
|JPY||US$/Japanese Yen||Steadies within the multi-month range forming above the 200-day MA; between 101-104, approx.||102.45||+0.0%||100.76||104.13/103.09|
|ZAR||US$/South African Rand||Retreats from resistance at the June-Aug range highs to the lower boundary; near the 200-day MA.||10.5494||-0.2%||10.2728/10.4658||10.9779/10.8626|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||Ranging recovery falters.||1020.93||-0.8%||1008.55||1044.66/1041.25|
|CHF||US$/Swiss Franc||Overbought rally has paused beneath the January high.||0.9065||-0.1%||0.8898/0.9041?||0.9156/0.9115|
|EURGBP||Euro/Pounds Sterling||Renews the recovery. Potential base.||0.8009||+0.0%||0.7813/0.7874||0.8153/0.8034|
|EURJPY||Euro/Japanese Yen||Trades below downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. However, intraday support is noted at 135.73. Potential failed break under the Feb low (136.23).||136.92||+0.0%||134.11||139.28/138.03|
|EURCHF||Euro/Swiss Franc||Eases to the lows of the m-t band.||1.2116||-0.1%||1.20625/1.21044||1.22975/1.22607|
|GBPJPY||GBP/Japanese Yen||Holds the 'bull trap' reaction (following the failed nudge over the Jan high) towards the Apr/May floor.||170.951||+0.0%||167.78/169.506||181.4/175.37|
|GBPCHF||GBP/Swiss Franc||Falls out of a s-t top.||1.5127||-0.1%||1.4969||1.5692/1.5488|
|CHFJPY||Sfr/Japanese Yen||Edges up from prior support at the Feb floor to downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||113.011||+0.1%||108.883/111.7||114.959/113.475|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||Finds support near the 200-day MA. Points back to resistance at the top of the Apr-Aug range (base?).||95.472||+0.2%||93.043/93.929||102.94/96.515|
|AUDNZD||Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar||Overbought July rally yields to ranging around the June ceiling.||1.0972||-0.2%||1.0624/1.0925||1.123/1.1054|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||Rangebound between 0.95-0.92, approx. Potential top.||0.9325||+0.1%||0.9203||0.9543/0.9505|
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