FX Daily Hotline
The prior rally from oversold (note the low level of the RSI recently) by the Australian Dollar versus New Zealand Dollar had halted by previous resistance at the early-September high (NZ$1.1296). The reaction from that barrier has been shallow, with support arriving at NZ$1.1120, and the rate is heading back to last month's high. We will consider re-purchasing the Aussie upon a breakout (above NZ$1.1296), as the large base built up earlier in the year would appear to be capable of sustaining further gains towards the NZ$1.1600 region.
Currencies eased against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar appears on the 'Losers' list with -0.5% after the session. The chart shows the small recovery from oversold faltering beneath the multi-month top formation, with resistance developing near former support along Y86. We will continue to monitor the Kiwi/Yen pairing with a view to selling at some point, as the rate could fall towards the February floor at Y81.43. We would point out the support point before that, at Y84.008, plotted earlier that month.
Having become overbought in mid-September, the Swiss Franc set about retracing its rally against Japan's currency. Now, last month's low, at Y112.579, is under scrutiny again. Should it yield, there is further support nearby from the floor area around Y112. This dates back to early February and could turn out to be the lower boundary of a sizeable top formation.
A 'Dead' MA Crossover has been plotted on the graph of the NZ$ v Swissie. This is mainly in recognition of earlier weakness by the NZ unit. The chart displays the Kiwi launching a recovery late last month, after the previous decline had become oversold. The counter move is struggling now, though a more forceful down move would be needed in order to confirm resistance in the SF0.7550 region.
Elsewhere, the US Dollar was trading over W1075 a short time ago against the South Korean Won. In spite of the overbought RSI indicator, the Greenback is continuing to rally through supply, heading from the year's earlier highs at W1089.71 and before that at W1082.9. One would expect to see some hesitation near those barriers.
|BRLGBP||Brazilian Real/Pound Sterling||0.2591||+1.1%|
|AUDCAD||Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar||0.9854||+1.0%|
|LACI||Latin America Dollar Index||88.83||+0.8%|
|AUDNZD||Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar||1.1256||+0.7%|
|CADJPY||Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen||96.669||-1.1%|
|NZDJPY||New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen||84.615||-0.8%|
|AUDBRL||Australian Dollar/Brazilian Real||2.113||-0.7%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|4 Sep 2014||Euro/South African Rand||EURZAR||Short||13.8896||14.1716||-2.03%||14.4|
- We watch to sell NZ$ v Yen and buy A$ v NZ$ (Chart of the Day).
|DXY||US Dollar Index||Pauses the overbought rally.||85.672||-0.3%||83.864/85.45||88.708/86.746|
|EUR||Euro/US Dollar||Pauses the oversold decline towards the mid-2012 base.||1.2669||+0.1%||1.2242/1.2466/1.2501||1.2995/1.2699|
|GBPUSD||British Pound/US Dollar||Pauses the oversold downtrend.||1.6096||+0.1%||1.5855/1.5944?||1.6644/1.6416|
|CAD||US$/Canadian Dollar||Overbought uptrend finds resistance at the early-2014 high.||1.1175||+0.4%||1.0887/1.1072||1.1725/1.1279|
|JPY||US$/Japanese Yen||Retreats from the overbought 'Peak' KDR of 1 Oct; near the mid-2008 ceiling. Potential top.||108.03||-0.7%||106.81||110.66/110.09|
|ZAR||US$/South African Rand||Overbought advance pauses by the early-2014 peak.||11.1862||-0.2%||10.8711/11.166||11.8723/11.3909|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||Holds the overbought rally within supply towards this year's earlier highs.||1066.1||-0.3%||1031.35/1038.4||1089.71/1082.9|
|CHF||US$/Swiss Franc||Overbought advance towards the mid-2013 peaks loses momentum.||0.9568||-0.2%||0.9126/0.9301||0.9839/0.9751|
|EURGBP||Euro/Pounds Sterling||Oversold decline reverses, finding support near the 2012 low (0.7755).||0.7871||+0.0%||0.7694/0.7755||0.8066/0.7889?|
|EURJPY||Euro/Japanese Yen||Renews the correction from overbought, towrds the early-Sept floor near 136.||136.86||-0.6%||135.78||141.23/137.88|
|EURCHF||Euro/Swiss Franc||Breaks Sept resistance; near the 50-day MA, leaving a small base area.||1.2122||-0.0%||1.203/1.2045||1.2178|
|GBPJPY||GBP/Japanese Yen||Corrects from overbought. Probes potential support at the highs of the broad trading band starting near 175.||173.879||-0.6%||169.35/172.994||197.453/180.715|
|GBPCHF||GBP/Swiss Franc||Overbought rally pauses. Dips under the July high (1.5434). Potential 'bull trap'.||1.5401||-0.1%||1.4766/1.4969||1.5692/1.5536|
|CHFJPY||Sfr/Japanese Yen||Extends the correction from overbought. Tests the Sept low (112.579).||112.897||-0.5%||112.116/112.579||117.864/117.01|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||Countermands the 'Trough' KDR of 30 Sept. Reasserts the s-t fall to retest 200-day MA.||95.256||-0.1%||94.537/95.125||98.684/97.929|
|AUDNZD||Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar||Reasserts the rally from the multi-month base. Points back to the early-Sept high.||1.1256||+0.7%||1.0624/1.0919||1.1313/1.1296|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||Oversold decline from the m-t top pauses. Potentially basing.||0.8766||-0.6%||0.8316/0.8643||0.9112|
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