investors intelligence
Generating first rate investment advice since 1947
Sample Research


Services:

Click here if you are unable to view the charts in this report

FX Daily Hotline 
16 May 2016     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: US$ tests the late-March high v SA Rand

 

The US Dollar, Euro and British Pound all appear on the 'Gainers' board against the South African Rand for Friday's session.  The US unit is the only currency to extend its recovery.  Also, the move through R15.3600 produced a bullish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner.

This Bar chart spans trading over the last nine months and displays the Greenback launching a recovery, after becoming oversold in April, from the sideways area along R14.  The rate currently probes late-March resistance, at R15.6257.  A clearance will have the February to mid-March ceiling, around R16.5000, to aim for.

 

Daily Comment:

 

The US Dollar reasserted its recovery from oversold against the Canadian Dollar before the weekend.  The chart shows the rate probing short-term downtrend resistance at the 50-day Moving Average, near C$1.3000.  A breakout will have resistance near the longer-term MA line to aim for, at C$1.3219, which is the early-April high.

The US currency has similarly reasserted its recovery rally against the Mexican Peso.  Gaining 1.1%, the rate potentially develops support near the sideways area along MP18.  A clearance of late-February resistance at MP18.3717 will renew the rally from sideways support around MP17; and the 200-day MA, towards the all-time high at MP19.4448, plotted on 11 February.

The US$ is currently trading at W1176.55 against the South Korean Won.  This means that it is resuming the recovery towards the early-2016 top that starts around W1190.  One notes that initial support has developed near both the long and short-term MAs near W1160.

On Friday, the US$ Trade Weighted Index extended the counter move from oversold to test resistance near the 50-day MA, at the April ceiling (95.20).  The longer-term picture remains top heavy.  At the time of writing, the US$ is up against only two of the six members (marginally up v Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc).

Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar lost 1.1% against the Japanese Yen for Friday's session.  Partially retracing the rebound from the February platform, the Aussie would have to maintain a jump past initial resistance at Y80.66 to indicate continuing support at that low; at Y77.592.  Should it ultimately yield, next chart support is at Y74.482; the mid-2012 floor.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
ZARUS$/South African Rand15.4038+2.7%
EURZAREuro/South African Rand17.4305+2.0%
GBPZARGBP/South African Rand22.12+1.9%
BRLUS$/Brazilian Real3.5335+1.4%
MXNUS$/Mexican Peso18.1705+1.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese Yen78.99-1.1%
LACILatin America Dollar Index63.86-1.0%
EURJPYEuro/Japanese Yen122.85-0.9%
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese Yen156.044-0.9%
BRLGBPBrazilian Real/Pound Sterling0.1972-0.8%
    
The FX Model Portfolio
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
28 Apr 2016 New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar NZD Long 0.6962 0.6775 -2.69% 0.665
2 May 2016 British Pound/US Dollar GBPUSD Long 1.4668 1.4365 -2.07% 1.3975
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
28 Apr 2016 US$/Japanese Yen JPY Short 108.11 108.63 -0.48% 113
2 May 2016 US Dollar Index DXY Short 93 94.608 -1.73% 95.5
  • There are no changes today.
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexS-t counter move from oversold probes resistance near the 50-day MA. L-t top heavy.94.608+0.5% 87.627/91.514/91.91996.399/95.2
EUREuro/US DollarRenews the correction from overbought. Probes potential support from the 50-day MA.1.1309-0.6% 1.1058/1.11441.1714/1.1616
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarRenews the s-t fall from the 200-day MA and 'Peak' KDR of 3 May within the prior base.1.4365-0.6% 1.3836/1.40061.5242/1.4969/1.477
CADUS$/Canadian DollarReasserts the counter move from oversold to s-t downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.1.294+0.7% 1.2128/1.24611.3219/1.3015
JPYUS$/Japanese YenSmall recovery from the Oct 2014 floor (105.23) struggles on the approach to the 50-day MA.108.63-0.4% 103.56/105.23114.87/111.91
ZARUS$/South African RandExtends the recovery to the late-Mar high (15.6257).15.4038+2.7% 13.0117/13.89116.4361/15.6257
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarReasserts the recovery to the early-2016 top.1171.47+0.8% 1128.43/1161.561217.1/1195.3
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancReasserts the 'Bear trap' recovery to the late-Apr high (0.9797); close to the 200-day MA.0.9755+0.5% 0.9259/0.94440.9914/0.9797
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingSmall recovery from the late-Apr low pauses. Potential top?0.7874+0.0% 0.7652/0.77350.8259/0.8153/0.8117
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenSmall 'Bear trap' recovery pauses.122.85-0.9% 118.73/121.46?128.22/126.47
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancPauses the rally beneath the early-Feb peak at 1.12.1.1025-0.1% 1.0843/1.09551.2097/1.12/1.1109
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenExtends the late-Feb/May range. Potential base.156.044-0.9% 147.109/151.659166.092/164.107
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancRanging beneath the mid-February/March ceiling (1.4318). Potential base.1.4011-0.1% 1.3415/1.38191.4768/1.4318
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenSmall recovery struggles beneath the 'Peak' KDR of 28 Apr (115.018).111.383-0.8% 108.883115.018/112.582
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenReasserts the fall from the range/base highs; near the 200-day MA, to the lower boundary at the Feb floor (77.592).78.99-1.1% 74.482/77.59290.728/88.621/86.706
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarExtends the s-t fall within the multi-month trading band/base.0.7271-0.7% 0.6974/0.79090.8164/0.7849


Recommend a friend! Tell your friends to mention your name when subscribing to Investors Intelligence, and get a months free access to a service of your choice! For more information, email support@investorsintelligence.com

Also available online at www.investorsintelligence.com. Unauthorized forwarding, copying or reproduction of this report will be treated as a breach of copyright. To subscribe, visit the website or contact Investors Intelligence on +44 (0)20 7352 4001 or email support@investorsintelligence.com.

This report has been produced and compiled by Investors Intelligence, a division of Stockcube Research Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It is distributed by Stockcube and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. From time to time Stockcube and any of its officers or employees may, to the extent permitted by law, have a position or otherwise be interested in any transactions, in any investments (including derivatives) directly or indirectly the subject of this report. Also Stockcube may from time to time perform other services (including acting as adviser or manager) for any company mentioned in this report. The value of securities can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. Derivatives in particular are high risk, high reward investment instruments and an investor may lose some or all of his/her original investment. If you make an investment in securities that are denominated in a currency other than that of GB Pounds you are warned that changes in rates of foreign exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment. The investments referred to herein may not be suitable investments for all persons accessing these pages. You should carefully consider whether all or any of these are suitable investments for you and if in any doubt consult an independent adviser. This report is prepared solely for the information of clients of Stockcube who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Stockcube nor any officer of Stockcube accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct and consequential loss arising from use of this report or its contents. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without the prior express consent of Stockcube.

Copyright 2016 by Stockcube Research Ltd.





Subscribe here: