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FX Daily Hotline 
5 December 2014     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: 'Peak' KDR by US$ v Swissie, but...

 

The US Dollar has plotted a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal against the Swiss Franc.  Finding intraday resistance at SF0.9796, the Greenback has paused its uptrend just beneath next chart resistance at the May 2013 high at SF0.9839.

That said, however, the US unit remains above rising support from the 50-day moving average, which is currently located near the mid-November low, at SF0.9531.  A breach would be required to cause more serious pattern damage.

 

Daily Comment:

 

The Brazilian Real has weakened again.  The US Dollar, for instance, has recorded a 1.5% gain for yesterday's session, as it extends the rally from uptrend support at the 50-day moving average.  That support is currently situated at the short-term sideways area near BR2.50.

We continue to hold a short position in the Real versus British Pound.  Shedding 1.3%, the Brazilian currency maintains the downtrend towards the 2008 floor at Ł0.2727.

Even the Australian Dollar has bounced v Real, with support at the 200-day MA and late-November low at BR2.1290 holding (see 'Gainers' for the chart).

The Aussie has extended its decline against the Canadian Dollar.  However, the 'thin lower tail' on the last candle shows that intraday support was available at Thursday's low, at C$0.9497.  With the RSI near oversold levels, we tighten the stop on the short held in the rate to C$0.9600 to lock in a profit.

The stop on the long trade in the Euro versus the Australian unit is also tightened.  Placed at A$1.47, a profit is guaranteed.

The single European currency's small recovery from oversold against the Swiss Franc is struggling.  The rate is finding resistance near supply starting at the lateral region along SF1.2050; near the 50-day MA.  A push past that barrier is needed to remove the risk of further slippage towards the 2012 floor at SF1.2000.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
RUBRussian Ruble per 1 US Dollar54.4554+2.4%
BRLUS$/Brazilian Real2.5908+1.5%
AUDBRLAustralian Dollar/Brazilian Real2.172+1.2%
EURMXNEuro/Mexican Peso17.5232+0.9%
EURAUDEuro/Australian Dollar1.4764+0.8%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
BRLGBPBrazilian Real/Pound Sterling0.2464-1.3%
AUDCHFAustralian Dollar/Swiss Franc0.8143-0.9%
AUDEURAustralian Dollar/Euro0.6774-0.8%
CADEURCanadian Dollar/Euro0.7096-0.7%
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss Franc1.5224-0.7%
    
The FX Model Portfolio
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
16 Oct 2014 Euro/Australian Dollar EURAUD Long 1.46 1.4764 +1.12% 1.47
28 Nov 2014 US$/Canadian Dollar CAD Long 1.1416 1.1384 -0.28% 1.105
3 Dec 2014 Indonesian Rupiah per 1 US Dollar IDR Long 12290 12309 +0.15% 11920
Foreign Exchange Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
27 Oct 2014 Brazilian Real/Pound Sterling BRLGBP Short 0.2461 0.2464 -0.12% 0.2650
28 Oct 2014 Swedish Krona Trade Weighted TWI SKSP Short 108.99 109.12 -0.12% 112
20 Nov 2014 Euro/Hungarian Forint EURHUF Short 305 307 -0.66% 311.5
25 Nov 2014 Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar AUDCAD Short 0.9686 0.9545 +1.46% 0.96
  • Stops are adjusted on long Euro v A$; and short A$ v C$.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexExtends the uptrend to the 2009 peak (89.624).88.704-0.3% 83.864/84.47291.16/89.624
EUREuro/US DollarHolds the fall towards the 2012 base area. Maintains downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.1.2379+0.6% 1.2134/1.22421.2886/1.26
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarHolds the downtrend to the Feb-Sept 2013 base.1.5673-0.1% 1.54291.5945/1.5826
CADUS$/Canadian DollarHolds the uptrend from the 50-day MA near the Nov high.1.1384+0.2% 1.1122/1.11921.1725/1.1467
JPYUS$/Japanese YenExtends the overbought rally towards the 2007 peak.119.78-0.0% 113.86/117.24?124.14
ZARUS$/South African RandS-t reaction reverses finding support above the late-Oct low.11.1983-0.2% 11.166/10.827411.8723/11.3909
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarOverbought advance slows within the 2013 top formation.1115.46+0.2% 1092.59/1098.151152.7/1127.65
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancPauses the advance with a 'Peak' KDR but remains above uptrend support at the 50-day MA.0.9713-0.6% 0.9368/0.95310.9972/0.9839
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingExtends the range forming between the 200-day MA and the 2012 floor (0.7755). Base?0.7898+0.6% 0.7694/0.7755/0.77670.8153/0.8066
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenReasserts the overbought rally to the late-2006/late-2008 top, which starts near 150.148.27+0.5% 142.09/145.59156.84/149.14
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancSmall rally from oversold and the 2012 floor at 1.2 struggles near the 50-day MA.1.2024-0.1% 1.1002/1.21.214/1.205?
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenExtends the overbought rally towards the late-Sept 2008 high.187.745-0.1% 181.082/183.981197.453
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancExtends the broad range above the sideways area near 1.5. Top?1.5224-0.7% 1.4766/1.49431.5692/1.5536
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenReasserts the overbought rally towards the Nov 1982 high at 126.38.123.318+0.6% 118.119/121.068126.38/124.164
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenOverbought rally finds resistance within the 2013 peak area.100.426-0.3% 91.764/98.062105.433/102.94/102.848
AUDNZDAustralian Dollar/New Zealand DollarHolds the oversold fall within the prior broad range.1.0771-0.6% 1.06241.1586/1.1304
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarDowntrend from resistance near the 50-day MA becomes oversold.0.8376-0.1% 0.8067/0.83160.8911/0.8796


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