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FX Daily Hotline 
23 February 2015     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: Down dynamic by US$ v Swissie

 

Following the mid-January dive to oversold levels against the Swiss Franc, many currencies have been clawing their way back upwards.  Here we show the US Dollar v Swissie, and this is one of the rates to have plotted a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal on Friday.  That feature, from SF0.9536 in this case, may well have capped the counter rally, though one observes that the Swiss unit is slipping in this morning's session, with the US$ currently changing hands at SF0.9455.  Still, a new recovery high is required to remove the danger of a further pullback.

 

Daily Comment:

 

After two sessions in the 'Losers' table versus the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc has made an appearance in the 'Gainers' list, with +1.2%.  Also, a 'Trough' Key Day Reversal is plotted from Y124.391.  A drop under that level would be needed to offset potential for a further recovery towards initial resistance near Y130.

The Australian Dollar has recorded a 0.7% gain versus Japan's currency.  The chart displays the Aussie reasserting the recovery from this year's earlier low towards late-January resistance at Y94.627, which is close to the 50-day moving average.  Note that line has recently acted as a barrier.

The Aussie has steadied against the New Zealand Dollar.  Finding support at NZ$1.0301 on 19 February means that the last remaining historic chart support at NZ$1.0285, plotted in mid-1997, has survived.  Also, following Friday's action, there are also hopes for an additional 'bear trap' recovery over the short term.

We continue to monitor the charts for the Kiwi against its US counterpart, with a view to selling should downtrend resistance be encountered hereabouts (see hotline for 17 February).  The rate was priced at US$0.7492 a short time ago.

 

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese Yen126.834+1.2%
TWI SFSPSwiss Franc Index146.57+1.0%
AUDCADAustralian Dollar/Canadian Dollar0.9828+0.9%
AUDBRLAustralian Dollar/Brazilian Real2.25+0.7%
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese Yen93.346+0.7%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss Franc1.4448-1.3%
CHFUS$/Swiss Franc0.9382-1.2%
NZDCHFNew Zealand Dollar/Swiss Franc0.7061-1.1%
EURCHFEuro/Swiss Franc1.0676-1.1%
GBPNOKGBP/Norwegian Krone11.6053-0.8%
    
The FX Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
10 Feb 2015 Euro/Pounds Sterling EURGBP Short 0.7422 0.739 +0.43% 0.765
  • We watch to sell NZ$ v US$.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexRally towards the mid-2003 peak near the psychological 100 level flattens.94.253-0.2% 91.514/93.25?99.49/95.481
EUREuro/US DollarPauses the oversold fall above the Sept 2003 low.1.1381+0.1% 1.0765/1.10981.2886/1.26
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarHolds the recovery to supply starting near 1.55.1.5399-0.1% 1.4814/1.49521.5826
CADUS$/Canadian DollarAdvance towards the 2008/2009 ceiling flattens.1.2531+0.3% 1.1803/1.2352?1.3065/1.2799
JPYUS$/Japanese YenAdvance yields to ranging beneath the early-Dec high.119.03+0.1% 113.86/115.57124.14/121.85
ZARUS$/South African RandFailed break over the Dec/Jan ceiling near 11.8 and 2008 peak (11.8723) leads to a 'bull trap' reaction. Intraday support is noted at 11.546.11.6426-0.3% 10.906/11.257512.135/11.8926
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarExtends the range forming beneath the Nov/Dec highs.1112.15+0.3% 1045.58/1072.151111.7
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancRecovery from oversold finds resistance with a 'Peak' KDR0.9382-1.2% 0.74061.024/0.9536
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingHolds the downtrend.0.739+0.2% 0.70890.7715/0.7592
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenRecovery is still struggling near the 20 Jan high (137.64).135.51+0.2% 127.98/130.15149.78/137.64
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancRecovery from oversold pauses with a 'Peak' KDR.1.0676-1.1% 0.85171.2097/1.0812
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenReasserts the February rally towards the Dec highs.183.303-0.0% 171.077/175.508189.714/187.803
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancRecovery from the oversold Jan low finds intraday resistance at 1.4688. Plots a 'Peak' KDR.1.4448-1.3% 1.17291.5589/1.4688
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenCorrection from overbought pauses with a 'Trough' KDR.126.834+1.2% 112.123/114.085155.367/130.069
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenHolds the recovery from oversold.93.346+0.7% 88.244/89.37798.415/94.627
AUDNZDAustralian Dollar/New Zealand DollarSteadies above the mid-1997 floor (1.0285). Failed break under the Jan low (bear trap).1.0421+0.5% 1.0285/1.03011.0869/1.0798
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarOversold fall flattens but holds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.0.7839-0.0% 0.7451/0.76260.8025/0.7876


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