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FX Daily Hotline 
21 August 2015     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: Euro renews uptrend v A$


Earlier in August, the Euro reaffirmed uptrend support at the 50-day Moving Average against the Australian Dollar.  Gaining 1.2% on Thursday, the single European currency has pushed up to re-challenge resistance at the late-2014 peak at A$1.5333.  We will consider purchasing in the event of a breakout for the potential towards the highs of the late-2013/early-2014 top near A$1.5500-1.5830.



Daily Comment:


The Euro has registered a 1.5% gain versus the South African Rand.  The chart shows the rate jumping up towards the late-2014 pinnacle at R14.7919.  We would point out, though, that the RSI is indicating an overbought condition. 

The single European unit has cleared its equivalent high against the Mexican Peso.  Now overbought, the Euro closes in upon still looking resistance at the 2011 ceiling near MP19.  In the event of a breakout, the 2009 barrier around MP20 will become the next target for bulls.

We continue to hold a long trade in the US Dollar v Peso, which has extended the rally into unchartered territory.  The advance is now overbought here too and the stop is tightened, to MP16.67, to lock in a profit.

Against the US Dollar, the Euro has followed +0.9% for Wednesday's session with +1.1% for yesterday's trading, as it steadies within the range that has been forming for most of the year.  Still, a move through sideways resistance around US$1.15; near the 200-day MA, would be required to indicate basing; and give rise to hopes for a further advance towards the US$1.20 region.

The Euro has also steadied versus the British Pound.  Finding support above the July/early-August floor, the rate points towards resistance at the early-July high at 0.7224.  A push past that barrier could lead to an additional recovery towards long-term downtrend resistance at the 200-day MA.

Elsewhere, the US$ makes another appearance on the 'Gainers' list versus Russia's Ruble.  The RSI is extremely overbought as the Greenback closes in upon the early-2015 high at RR71.803.  The last remaining chart resistance was plotted in late 2014 at RR79.1688. 


Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
EURMXNEuro/Mexican Peso18.8609+2.1%
RUBRussian Ruble per 1 US Dollar68.0512+2.1%
EURZAREuro/South African Rand14.5415+1.5%
EURAUDEuro/Australian Dollar1.5322+1.2%
EUREuro/US Dollar1.1242+1.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
AUDEURAustralian Dollar/Euro0.6527-1.2%
DKKUS$/Danish Krone6.6395-1.1%
BRLUS$/Brazilian Real3.4587-1.0%
The FX Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
19 Aug 2015 US$/Mexican Peso MXN Long 16.6213 16.8032 +1.09% 16.67
  • The stop is tightened on the above trade.
  • We watch to buy Euro v A$ (Chart of the Day).


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexDips in range forming beneath sideways resistance near 98.5. Potential large top forms.95.776-0.7% 93.563/95.454100.39/98.455
EUREuro/US DollarSteadies within the broad trading band (base?). Points to sideways resistance near 1.15; close to the 200-day MA.1.1242+1.1% 1.0458/1.08091.26/1.1534
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarAttempts to break out of the s-t range. Points towards the Jun high.1.569+0.1% 1.5171/1.5331.5945/1.593
CADUS$/Canadian DollarConsolidates after the uptrend became overbought.1.3087-0.3% 1.2128/1.28621.3384/1.3213
JPYUS$/Japanese YenRetreats from prior resistance at the June highs.123.4-0.3% 118.33/120.41135.15/125.86/124.48
ZARUS$/South African RandPoints towards the late-2001 peak. RSI high.12.9352+0.4% 12.0538/12.299313.8401
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarReasserts the uptrend towards the Oct 2011 peak.1185.17-0.0% 1149.4/1155.791208.25
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancUnwinds from overbought. Finds resistance beneath the Jan-Mar ceiling.0.9586-0.7% 0.8501/0.90721.0129/0.9903
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingSteadies within the range forming between l-t downtrend resistance at the 200-day MA and the Jul/early-Aug floor.0.7164+1.0% 0.6679/0.6894/0.69360.7389/0.7224
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenReasserts the s-t rally to the small June top area.138.72+0.8% 126.1/133.1141.06
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancCorrection from overbought slows.1.0774+0.3% 0.9776/1.02341.2097/1.0962
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenRanging near resistance at the June highs around 195.193.611-0.3% 185.003/191.016197.453/195.885
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancUnwinds from the overbought high near 1.4141/1.44671.5589/1.5411
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenRenews the small recovery from the 200-day MA. Probes potential downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.128.724+0.4% 119.917/126.051134.62/131.35
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenFailed at the 50-day MA. Drop back into the s-t range leads to 'bull trap' scope towards lower boundary.90.536-0.5% 88.244/89.16994.991/92.432
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarDowntrend towards the 2008/2009 base slows.0.7337-0.1% 0.69650.8164/0.7849

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