FX Daily Hotline
The Australian Dollar weakened again on Friday, and the 'Gainers & Losers' sections below reflect this. The Euro, for example, recorded a 0.6% gain versus the Aussie. The chart shows the single European currency firming within the short-term range that has been forming ever since the September recovery from oversold hit the July barrier at A$1.4603; near the 200-day moving average. Interestingly, support during the current ranging phase is offered by the 50-day MA line, which had previously acted as resistance (April to August).
We will consider purchasing in the event of a sustained clearance of the A$1.4600 hurdle for the potential towards the A$1.5000 sideways area.
Both the above currencies (and others) have eased against the Japanese Yen.
The Australian Dollar/Yen pairing (the subject of Friday's Chart of the Day) dives towards the May floor at Y93.043. That action has also taken the RSI to a low level. However, should the spring low yield, next chart support is not until the mid-March low at Y91.085.
The Euro/Yen rate recently developed resistance along the lateral area around Y138; near both the long and short-term MAs. Here, the September low at Y135.78 is under pressure, and should it fail, next support is around Y134, though the important platform is not until the November floor at Y131.22.
We will consider selling the New Zealand Dollar v Yen upon a breach of minor support around Y84. The chart pattern is very top heavy, with important support not until the February floor at Y81.43.
Elsewhere, the Australian currency has registered a 1% loss against the Canadian Dollar. The recovery from oversold did not get very far, to C$0.9863. Should the late-September low at C$0.9706 yield, the risk of further slippage towards the C$0.9600 region will have increased.
|TRY||New Turkish Lira per 1 US Dollar||2.2875||+0.8%|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||0.8737||+0.6%|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||93.496||-1.3%|
|TWI ADSP||Australian Dollar Index||133.76||-1.0%|
|AUDCAD||Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar||0.9726||-1.0%|
|AUDCHF||Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc||0.8313||-0.8%|
|NZDJPY||New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen||84.138||-0.8%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|4 Sep 2014||Euro/South African Rand||EURZAR||Short||13.8896||14.041||-1.09%||14.4|
- We watch to sell NZ$ v Yen and buy Euro v A$ (Chart of the Day).
|DXY||US Dollar Index||Possibly reasserting the advance after a brief correction from overbought.||85.912||+0.5%||83.864/84.937||88.708/86.746|
|EUR||Euro/US Dollar||Counter move from oversold finds intraday resistance at 1.2791.||1.2628||-0.5%||1.2466/1.2501||1.2995|
|GBPUSD||British Pound/US Dollar||Recovery from oversold finds intraday resistance at 1.6227.||1.6076||-0.3%||1.5855/1.5944?||1.6644/1.6416|
|CAD||US$/Canadian Dollar||Overbought uptrend yields to ranging beneath resistance at the early-2014 high.||1.1199||+0.1%||1.0887/1.1072||1.1725/1.1279|
|JPY||US$/Japanese Yen||Retreats from the overbought 'Peak' KDR of 1 Oct; near the mid-2008 ceiling. Potential top.||107.66||-0.2%||106.81||110.66/110.09|
|ZAR||US$/South African Rand||Reverses up from the 50-day MA after correcting from overbought and the early-2014 peak.||11.12||+0.5%||11.166/10.9628||11.8723/11.3909|
|KRW||South Korean Won per 1 US Dollar||Overbought rally struggles beneath this year's earlier highs.||1070.45||+0.6%||1031.35/1038.4||1089.71/1082.9/1074.75|
|CHF||US$/Swiss Franc||Correction from overbought finds intraday support at 0.9469.||0.9571||+0.3%||0.9126/0.9301||0.9839/0.9751|
|EURGBP||Euro/Pounds Sterling||Recovery from oversold and the 2012 low (0.7755) slows by potential resistance along 0.79.||0.7854||-0.3%||0.7694/0.7755||0.8066/0.79?|
|EURJPY||Euro/Japanese Yen||Finds resistance at the 50 and 200-day MAs. Tests the early-Sept floor (135.78).||135.96||-0.7%||131.22/134.11/135.78||141.23/137.94|
|EURCHF||Euro/Swiss Franc||Failed break above the small base area. 'Bull trap' potential towards 1.205 region.||1.2087||-0.2%||1.203/1.2045||1.2178/1.214|
|GBPJPY||GBP/Japanese Yen||Corrects from overbought. Extends the s-t fall into the broad trading band starting near 175.||173.073||-0.4%||169.35||197.453/180.715|
|GBPCHF||GBP/Swiss Franc||Overbought rally pauses. Dips under the July high (1.5434). Potential 'bull trap'.||1.5389||+0.0%||1.4766/1.4969||1.5692/1.5536|
|CHFJPY||Sfr/Japanese Yen||Extends the correction from overbought past the Sept low (112.579).||112.509||-0.4%||111.7/112.116||117.01/113.763|
|AUDJPY||Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen||Dives towards the May floor. RSI low.||93.496||-1.3%||91.085/93.043||97.929/96.033|
|AUDNZD||Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar||Rally from the multi-month base continues to find resistance at the early-Sept high.||1.1114||-0.4%||1.0624/1.0919||1.1313/1.1296|
|AUD||Australian Dollar/US Dollar||Retraces the recovery from oversold. The early-Oct low is holding.||0.8737||+0.6%||0.8316/0.8643||0.9112/0.8899|
Copyright 2014 by Stockcube Research Ltd.