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FX Daily Hotline 
15 June 2016     By C Dichio, Analyst

Chart of the day: Euro dives v Swissie...


The Euro sharply renewed its decline from the overbought May high versus the Swiss Franc yesterday.  That short-term fall has now become oversold; as the December 2015 low at SF1.0778 comes under pressure.  There is further support in that area, which stretches down to the November floor at SF1.0737; as well as the August platform at SF1.0714.  With the oversold RSI, one would expect the single European currency to pause its decline thereabouts.


Daily Comment:


The British Pound has similarly become oversold against the Swiss Franc.  Shedding 1.2% on Tuesday, the rate approaches support at the April floor at SF1.3415.  Should that fail, next important chart support is not until the spiked early-2015 low around SF1.2500.

Sterling posted a 1.1% loss versus the Singapore Dollar.  Here too, though, the short-term fall has become oversold; as prior support along S$1.9000 nears.  Should this fail, however, the earlier 2013 floor at S$1.8508 will become the next target.

The UK unit appears a third straight day in the 'Losers' column versus the Japanese Yen.  One would point out that the near-term decline is becoming oversold; near the mid-April/August 2013 floor at Y146.456.  Therefore, a counter move before long would not be surprising.

The US Dollar has recorded a 1.2% gain versus the Norwegian Krone.  The US currency has pushed up to probe the May ceiling at NK8.4065.  If that barrier can be overcome, there will be a short-term base in place.  The following targets will be around NK8.5000 and then NK8.6000.

The New Zealand Dollar lost 1% versus its US cousin on Tuesday.  The Kiwi corrects from the overbought high at US$0.7148.  The failed break over the prior highs also presents 'bull trap' fears for a further fall over the near term, possibly towards the US$0.6800-0.6700 region.



Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
NOKUS$/Norwegian Krone8.3625+1.2%
USDGBPUS Dollar/British Pound0.7084+1.1%
BRLGBPBrazilian Real/Pound Sterling0.2034+1.0%
ZARUS$/South African Rand15.3011+0.9%
DKKUS$/Danish Krone6.6344+0.8%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese Yen149.772-1.2%
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss Franc1.3597-1.2%
GBPSGDGBP/Singaporean Dollar1.9125-1.1%
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US Dollar1.4114-1.1%
NZDNew Zealand Dollar/US Dollar0.6993-1.0%
The FX Model Portfolio
No trades found.
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
DXYUS Dollar IndexRallies towards resistance at the 200-day MA. Potential base.94.934+0.6% 91.919/93.42596.399/95.968
EUREuro/US DollarFalls from the 'Peak' KDR of 9 Jun towards the May low. Potential top.1.1207-0.8% 1.0822/1.10581.1616/1.1416
GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarFalls from the 'Peak' KDR of 3 May (1.477); and 200-day MA. Approaches the Apr low.1.4114-1.1% 1.3836/1.40061.4969/1.477
CADUS$/Canadian DollarReverses up towards resistance at the 200-day MA. Potential base.1.2872+0.3% 1.2461/1.26551.3296/1.3219
JPYUS$/Japanese YenTests the May low (105.55) and the Oct 2014 floor (105.23).106.11-0.1% 103.56/105.23111.91/107.9
ZARUS$/South African RandReverses the correction from overbought, finding support at the 200-day MA.15.3011+0.9% 14.1152/14.652516.9874/16.4361
KRWSouth Korean Won per 1 US DollarFall from the early-2016 top reverses.1173.2-0.0% 1128.43/1151.421195.3/1199.65
CHFUS$/Swiss FrancPullback from overbought slows.0.9633-0.1% 0.9259/0.94441.0093/0.9956
EURGBPEuro/Pounds SterlingRallies from oversold towards the Apr peak.0.794+0.3% 0.7305/0.75260.8117
EURJPYEuro/Japanese YenDecline becomes oversold. Dips under the Feb 2013 low (118.73) during Tues.118.92-0.9% 116.47126.47/124.65
EURCHFEuro/Swiss FrancSharply renews the fall. Tests the Dec 2015 low (1.0778). RSI oversold.1.0796-0.9% 1.0737/1.07781.12/1.1129
GBPJPYGBP/Japanese YenDecline towards the mid-Apr/Aug 2013 floor at 146.456 becomes oversold.149.772-1.2% 146.456/147.109/147.622166.092/164.107
GBPCHFGBP/Swiss FrancPullback from the overbought May high becomes oversold on the approach to the Apr floor.1.3597-1.2% 1.34151.4768/1.4613
CHFJPYSfr/Japanese YenEases from the 50-day MA. Potentially reasserting the downtrend.110.153-0.0% 108.883115.018/112.582
AUDJPYAustralian Dollar/Japanese YenEases from resistance near the 50-day MA. Trades under the Feb floor (77.592) during Tues.78.08-0.5% 74.48286.706/80.66
AUDAustralian Dollar/US DollarCounter move from oversold finds resistance at the Mar/early-top area.0.7358-0.4% 0.7109/0.71450.7849/0.7505

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