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European Weekly Review
3 March 2015
             By S Gale, Analyst

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Europe Weekly Index Summary
Weekly ChangeP&F TrendStop
Euro Stoxx 366.8611,066.8m+6.27+1.7% Bull 16 Jan 2015 337.50
Euro Stoxx 50 3591.093,237.4m+71.51+2.0% Bull 15 Jan 2015 3300.00
France CAC40 Index 4917.32568.8m+55.02+1.1% Bull 16 Jan 2015 4100.00
Germany DAX Index 11410.4419.3m+279.48+2.5% Bull 18 Nov 2014 10750.00
Netherlands AEX Index 485.84451.4m+10.62+2.2% Bull 4 Dec 2014 405.00
Spain IBEX 35 Index 11178.51,985.6m+188.40+1.7% Bull 19 Jan 2015 10200.00
Sweden OMX Index 1686.64405.3m+7.16+0.4% Bull 18 Nov 2014 1420.00
Switzerland SMI Index 9055.69229.8m+78.00+0.9% Bull 26 Jan 2015 7850.00
Closing prices last 5 days
Stock Index
The SX5E breaks resistance at 3500, with next major resistance at 3900. Whilst trading with strong momentum, the index remains short term overbought; we therefore remain cautious and still anticipate a pullback.

The SXXE makes new highs with resistance at 375, but remains short term overbought.

The DAX makes new highs but is overbought.

The SX5E/SXXE ratio holds support and rallies; we maintain a broad market hedge.

Index Breadth
Our Europe (SXXE) P&F Bull Trend breadth indicator trades at historic overbought levels.

Sector Bulls & Bears
Autos and Financial Services make new price and relative highs.

Banks confirm a price base but encounter the top of the range and their relative downtrend.

Utilities test the top of the price range and have now corrected to medium term relative support.

Energy tests price resistance and holds at recent relative lows.

Travel & Leisure fails to make new price and relative highs.

Basic Resources test price resistance but reassert their relative downtrend.

Stock Action
We opened a short position in Santander as it encountered short term price and relative downtrends. We target 5.8 and place our stop at 6.6. (25th Feb)

We opened a short position in Sandvik as it encountered the top of the price range and its medium term relative downtrend. We target 70 and place our stop at 98. (25th Feb)

We opened a short position in Vallourec as it reasserted its price and relative downtrends. We target 17 and place our stop at 24 (25th Feb)

We closed our short position in SAP as it hit our stop at 62, making a new price high and testing its relative downtrend. (25th Feb)

We closed our long position and took profits (25.5%) in Yara International as it encountered medium term relative resistance. (26th Feb)

We opened a short position in Sanofi as it encountered the top of the price range and its medium term relative downtrend. We target 77 and place our stop at 91. (26th Feb)

We opened a short position in OMV as it encountered price resistance at 26 and the 200-day MA, as well as its short term relative downtrend. We target 20 and place our stop at 27. (2nd Mar)

Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
17 Oct 2014 Novo Nordisk -BNOVOB Long 258.2 317.5 +22.97% 240
17 Oct 2014 Den Danske BankDANSKE Long 150.8 177.5 +17.71% 139
21 Oct 2014 PostNL NVPNL Long 3.264 4.045 +23.93% 3
6 Jan 2015 LagardereMMB Long 21.42 26.03 +21.52% 20
7 Jan 2015 Allianz AGALV Long 134.75 151.25 +12.24% 124
12 Jan 2015 BouyguesEN Long 30.58 35.8 +17.07% 28.75
14 Jan 2015 Casino GuichardCO Long 76.5 85.15 +11.31% 71
15 Jan 2015 LVMHMC Long 135.05 164.75 +21.99% 125
19 Jan 2015 Adidas-Salomon AGADS Long 58.81 68.88 +17.12% 53
21 Jan 2015 Telecom ItaliaTIT Long 0.9635 1.08 +12.09% 0.9
3 Feb 2015 Saipem SpASPM Long 8.74 9.275 +6.12% 7.7
4 Feb 2015 KPNKPN Long 2.847 3.073 +7.94% 2.5
10 Feb 2015 ASML Holding NVASML Long 89.55 98.34 +9.82% 79
11 Feb 2015 ING Groep NVINGA Long 11.62 13.43 +15.58% 10.75
13 Feb 2015 Deutsche Bank AGDBK Long 28.35 29.42 +3.77% 25.5

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
6 Jan 2015 DSM NVDSM Short 48.285 49.885 -3.31% 52.5
7 Jan 2015 Air FranceAF Short 7.728 7.163 +7.31% 8.6
9 Jan 2015 RWERWE Short 23.72 24.675 -4.03% 26
23 Jan 2015 Banco Popular Espanol SAPOP Short 3.919 4.073 -3.93% 4.2
6 Feb 2015 ENIENI Short 15.56 16.52 -6.17% 16.7
9 Feb 2015 Swedish MatchSWMA Short 256 263.7 -3.01% 280
18 Feb 2015 Norsk HydroNHY Short 46.01 43.97 +4.43% 49
25 Feb 2015 Banco Santander Central Hispano SASAN Short 6.421 6.542 -1.88% 6.8
25 Feb 2015 Sandvik ABSAND Short 93.4 92.25 +1.23% 98
25 Feb 2015 VallourecVK Short 21.42 21.67 -1.17% 24
26 Feb 2015 Sanofi SASAN Short 87.54 86.4 +1.30% 91
2 Mar 2015 OMV AGOMV Short 25.225 25.225 0.00% 27
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