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European Weekly Review
10 March 2015
             By S Gale, Analyst

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Europe Weekly Index Summary
 CloseWeekly
Volume
Weekly ChangeP&F TrendStop
Euro Stoxx 369.2210,572.2m+2.36+0.6% Bull 16 Jan 2015 337.50
Euro Stoxx 50 3610.283,055.2m+19.19+0.5% Bull 15 Jan 2015 3300.00
France CAC40 Index 4937.2643.1m+19.88+0.4% Bull 16 Jan 2015 4100.00
Germany DAX Index 11582.1411.2m+171.74+1.5% Bull 18 Nov 2014 11150.00
Netherlands AEX Index 488.21483.7m+2.37+0.5% Bull 4 Dec 2014 405.00
Spain IBEX 35 Index 11054.21,913.5m-124.30-1.1% Bull 19 Jan 2015 10200.00
Sweden OMX Index 1660.36475.8m-26.28-1.6% Bull 18 Nov 2014 1420.00
Switzerland SMI Index 9046.88233.8m-8.81-0.1% Bull 26 Jan 2015 7850.00
Closing prices last 5 days
Stock Index
The SX5E breaks above resistance at 3500, with next major resistance at 3900. Whilst trading with strong momentum the index remains short term overbought; consequently, we remain cautious and still anticipate a pullback to within a trading range of 3400-3600.

The SXXE makes new highs with resistance at 370/5 but remains short term overbought.

The DAX makes new highs but is overbought; we anticipate a trading range of 11200-11500.

The SX5E/SXXE ratio rallied above support; we maintain a broad market hedge.

Index Breadth
Our Europe (SXXE) P&F Bull Trend breadth indicator is both at the top of the range and overbought.

Sector Bulls & Bears
Banks confirm their price base but encounter the top of the range and test their medium term relative downtrend.

Energy trades to the top of the range and re-tests recent relative lows.

Financial Services just fail to make a new short term high and re-test relative support.

Stock Action
We take profit in our long position (11.5%) in ING Group as it encounters the top of the medium term relative range. (3rd Mar)

We open a short position in Volvo as it ecnounters resistance at the top of the range and reasserts its medium term relative downtrend. We target 80 and place our stop at 105. (3rd Mar)

We open a long position in Infineon Technologies as it makes new short term highs on bullish volume and finds short term relative support. We target 12 and place our stop at 9.7. (4th Mar)

We close our short position in Banco Popular Espanol as it finds price support at 3.75 on bullish volume and medium term relative support. (6th Mar)

Model Portfolio
Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
17 Oct 2014 Novo Nordisk -BNOVOB Long 258.2 320.6 +24.17% 240
17 Oct 2014 Den Danske BankDANSKE Long 150.8 176.1 +16.78% 139
21 Oct 2014 PostNL NVPNL Long 3.264 4.126 +26.41% 3
6 Jan 2015 LagardereMMB Long 21.42 25.8 +20.45% 20
7 Jan 2015 Allianz AGALV Long 134.75 151.55 +12.47% 124
12 Jan 2015 BouyguesEN Long 30.58 35.095 +14.76% 28.75
14 Jan 2015 Casino GuichardCO Long 76.5 86.69 +13.32% 71
15 Jan 2015 LVMHMC Long 135.05 167.8 +24.25% 125
19 Jan 2015 Adidas-Salomon AGADS Long 58.81 71.47 +21.53% 53
21 Jan 2015 Telecom ItaliaTIT Long 0.9635 1.06 +10.02% 0.9
3 Feb 2015 Saipem SpASPM Long 8.74 9.68 +10.76% 7.7
4 Feb 2015 KPNKPN Long 2.847 3.056 +7.34% 2.5
10 Feb 2015 ASML Holding NVASML Long 89.55 99.19 +10.76% 79
13 Feb 2015 Deutsche Bank AGDBK Long 28.35 29.37 +3.60% 25.5
4 Mar 2015 Infineon Technologies AGIFX Long 10.495 10.825 +3.14% 9.7

Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
6 Jan 2015 DSM NVDSM Short 48.285 50.92 -5.46% 52.5
7 Jan 2015 Air FranceAF Short 7.728 7.166 +7.27% 8.6
9 Jan 2015 RWERWE Short 23.72 24.35 -2.66% 26
6 Feb 2015 ENIENI Short 15.56 16.58 -6.56% 16.7
9 Feb 2015 Swedish MatchSWMA Short 256 261.5 -2.15% 280
18 Feb 2015 Norsk HydroNHY Short 46.01 41.49 +9.82% 49
25 Feb 2015 Banco Santander Central Hispano SASAN Short 6.421 6.481 -0.93% 6.8
25 Feb 2015 Sandvik ABSAND Short 93.4 91.85 +1.66% 98
25 Feb 2015 VallourecVK Short 21.42 22.48 -4.95% 24
26 Feb 2015 Sanofi SASAN Short 87.54 87.6 -0.07% 91
2 Mar 2015 OMV AGOMV Short 25.225 25.93 -2.79% 27
3 Mar 2015 VolvoVOLVB Short 96.4 96.8 -0.41% 105
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