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European Weekly Review
17 March 2015
             By S Gale, Analyst

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Europe Weekly Index Summary
Weekly ChangeP&F TrendStop
Euro Stoxx 379.7810,215.6m+10.56+2.9% Bull 16 Jan 2015 337.50
Euro Stoxx 50 3706.753,240.5m+96.47+2.7% Bull 15 Jan 2015 3300.00
France CAC40 Index 5061.16614.2m+123.96+2.5% Bull 16 Jan 2015 4100.00
Germany DAX Index 12167.7480.8m+585.59+5.1% Bull 18 Nov 2014 11400.00
Netherlands AEX Index 498.03438.9m+9.82+2.0% Bull 4 Dec 2014 405.00
Spain IBEX 35 Index 11114.72,082.8m+60.50+0.5% Bull 19 Jan 2015 10200.00
Sweden OMX Index 1689.67482.2m+29.31+1.8% Bull 18 Nov 2014 1630.00
Switzerland SMI Index 9237.08228.5m+190.20+2.1% Bull 26 Jan 2015 7850.00
Closing prices last 5 days
European Macro Outlook

The European Indices have rallied to new highs this week, with the DAX breaking the 12,000 level. The introduction of QE by the ECB and the continued strength of the US Dollar are the most prevalent causes.

The Euro continues to make new lows against the US Dollar, despite being deeply oversold. But now encounters support at 1.05 from its March 2003 levels. The next key level of support is 1.02 from its July and November 2002 highs.

Stock Index

The SX5E confirms its break of resistance at 3,500, with next major resistance at 3,900. We anticipate a 3,500-3,700 short term range.

The SXXE breaks resistance at 375, with next major resistance at 400.

The DAX breaks resistance at 12,000 and we now target 12,500. We anticipate a 11,750/12,500 range.

Index Breadth

Our European breadth indicators remain at historic resistance levels. There are tentative signs of unwinding but this is not being reflected on the indices.

Sector Bulls & Bears

Autos, Chemicals and Personal & Household Goods make new price and relative highs.

Energy, Basic Resources and Utilities fall from the top of the price ranges and make new relative lows.

Stock Action

We open a long position in Geberit as it retests recent highs and finds relative support. We target 400 and place our stop at 320. (10th Mar)

We open a short position in Statoil as it encounters resistance at 150 and retests recent relative lows. We target 120 and place our stop at 150. (10th Mar)

We open a short position in Groupe Bruxelles Lambert as it encounters price resistance from previous highs and makes a new medium term relative low. We target 67 and place our stop at 78. (12th Mar)

We open a long position in SES Global as it reasserts its price uptrend and finds relative support. We target 38 and place our stop at 30.4. (12th Mar)

We close our long position (16.4%) in Den Danske Bank as it fails to make new price highs and makes a short term new relative low. (13th Mar)

We open a short position in Tenaris as it reasserts its downtrends and makes a new relative low. We target 10 and place our stop at 13.8. (13th Mar)

We close our short position in Sanofi as it makes a new short term price high and finds medium term relative support. (16th Mar)

Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
17 Oct 2014 Novo Nordisk -BNOVOB Long 258.2 345.4 +33.77% 240
21 Oct 2014 PostNL NVPNL Long 3.264 4.107 +25.83% 3
6 Jan 2015 LagardereMMB Long 21.42 26.9 +25.58% 20
7 Jan 2015 Allianz AGALV Long 134.75 159.95 +18.70% 124
12 Jan 2015 BouyguesEN Long 30.58 37.305 +21.99% 28.75
14 Jan 2015 Casino GuichardCO Long 76.5 84.6 +10.59% 71
15 Jan 2015 LVMHMC Long 135.05 174.7 +29.36% 125
19 Jan 2015 Adidas-Salomon AGADS Long 58.81 72.24 +22.84% 53
21 Jan 2015 Telecom ItaliaTIT Long 0.9635 1.141 +18.42% 0.9
3 Feb 2015 Saipem SpASPM Long 8.74 8.67 -0.80% 7.7
4 Feb 2015 KPNKPN Long 2.847 3.05 +7.13% 2.5
10 Feb 2015 ASML Holding NVASML Long 89.55 101.55 +13.40% 79
13 Feb 2015 Deutsche Bank AGDBK Long 28.35 30.915 +9.05% 25.5
4 Mar 2015 Infineon Technologies AGIFX Long 10.495 11.305 +7.72% 9.7
10 Mar 2015 GeberitGEBN Long 352.2 363.5 +3.21% 320
12 Mar 2015 SES GlobalSESG Long 32.34 33.6 +3.90% 30.4

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
6 Jan 2015 DSM NVDSM Short 48.285 52.05 -7.80% 52.5
7 Jan 2015 Air FranceAF Short 7.728 7.214 +6.65% 8.6
9 Jan 2015 RWERWE Short 23.72 23.79 -0.30% 26
6 Feb 2015 ENIENI Short 15.56 15.24 +2.06% 16.7
9 Feb 2015 Swedish MatchSWMA Short 256 263.5 -2.93% 280
18 Feb 2015 Norsk HydroNHY Short 46.01 42.76 +7.06% 49
25 Feb 2015 Banco Santander Central Hispano SASAN Short 6.421 6.486 -1.01% 6.8
25 Feb 2015 Sandvik ABSAND Short 93.4 94.6 -1.28% 98
25 Feb 2015 VallourecVK Short 21.42 20.92 +2.33% 24
2 Mar 2015 OMV AGOMV Short 25.225 23.885 +5.31% 27
3 Mar 2015 VolvoVOLVB Short 96.4 98.1 -1.76% 105
10 Mar 2015 StatoilSTL Short 138 132.4 +4.06% 150
12 Mar 2015 Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SAGBLB Short 77.36 77.62 -0.34% 80
13 Mar 2015 Tenaris SATEN Short 12.69 12.62 +0.55% 13.8
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