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ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
1 July 2015

Market Overview

Over the past week our short-term-composite oscillator has unwound sharply and now rests in oversold territory. The majority of previous visits to the present region have been followed by sharp snap-backs. Coupled to the evidence from the ETF charts themselves, as many are trading on moving average support, history is expected to repeat.

We remain with the long-term uptrend in domestic equity funds. Today we add one reassertion candidate, the biotechnology ETF. 





This Week's Trades

  • Biotechnology (IBB) - buying, stoploss at $360

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.



Other ETF Highlights


US Equity Indices

  • S&P 500 (SPY) - buy reiterated
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - buy reiterated

US Sector Indices

  • Health Care (XLV) - buy reiterated
  • Semiconductor Index (SOXX) - buy

Other Developed Indices

  • Australia (EWA) - sell
  • Greece (GREK) - speculative buy

Emerging Indices

  • Turkey (TUR) - sell


  • Euro (FXE) - buy


  • Agriculture (DBA) - holding short


  • US 20+years (TLT) - sell





US Equity Indices


The S&P 500 (SPY) ETF has corrected back down to its 200-day exponential moving average. Support is being found on the average and the 14-day RSI is close to oversold. A resumption higher is expected from here. We hold our long position. 




The Russell 2000 (IWM) also shows a pull-back to moving average support. Here too momentum has unwound to a more attractive level for accumulation. Stoplosses on new positions could be limited to just beneath recent lows. We remain long.



US Sector Indices


The Biotechnology (IBB) fund has found support from its 50-day exponential moving average with the recent market rout. Price and relative uptrends should reassert from here given the non-overbought condition. 

We shall buy into the recent weakness, entering a long position on the close today. The stoploss will be at $360 and is an EOD3 stop type.




The Health Care (XLV) fund maintains its price and relative uptrends despite the present market weakness. The small retreat has enabled momentum to cool off and that is constructive. Upside reassertions expected soon. 



The Semiconductor Index (SOXX) is another example of a major fund correcting back to moving average support, the 50-day. The 14-day RSI has entered oversold territory. A resumption of uptrends is anticipated.



Other Developed Indices


The Australia (EWA) index is extending its break of trendline support drawn up from the March 2009 low.  The relative chart is also in poor shape, making a new five year low last month. The fund is a sell on any strength.



The Greece (GREK) ETF is up around 5% this afternoon on optimism of a resolution to its crisis. The chart shows support around $10, with a potential base being attempted over the past few months. Just beneath the lows of the range is the 2012 low of $8.77. Speculative longs are worth considering but be prepared for volatility. 




Emerging Indices


The ETF for Turkey (TUR), Greece's neighbor, has been trending down since the start of the year. Fresh 52-week lows likely to be recorded over the next few weeks as conditions are not oversold. 

The P&F relative chart, versus the US equity market, is in a long-term downtrend, trading at lows. 





The Euro (FXE) fund maintains its rising channel off the March low. The current Greece crisis has not damaged that trend. Support is being found from the 50-day exponential moving average and an uptrend reassertion is expected over the short-term. The 14-day RSI is comfortable at neutral. 





The Agriculture (DBA) ETF has rallied the past week, nearing its 200-day exponential moving average. The 14-day RSI shows that momentum is hitting overbought and therefore we shall we hold out short position. Trading could turn down from moving average resistance. 





The US 20+years (TLT) is resuming its downtrend which started from an end of January high. Resistance from the falling 50-day exponential moving average is close by and the 14-day RSI is turning down from neutral.

The P&F relative chart broke down to long-term lows last month. Longs should be avoided.



ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop Stop Type
19 Nov 2014 DJ US Pharmaceuticals Index FundIHE Long 147.52 174.82 +18.51% 171.50 EOD3
10 Feb 2015 SPDR Sector Trst Health CareXLV Long 70.12 74.39 +6.09% 73 EOD3
18 Mar 2015 GoldGLD Long 112.37 112.37 0.00% 109 EOD3
24 Mar 2015 CurrencyShares Swiss Franc TrustFXF Long 101.73 103.89 +2.12% 97 EOD3
1 Apr 2015 SPDR Sector Trst EnergyXLE Long 77.56 75.16 -3.09% 72.50 EOD3
8 Apr 2015 PowerShares QQQQQQ Long 106.64 107.07 +0.40% 103.50 EOD3
15 Apr 2015 Oil Service HOLDRSOIH Long 38.48 34.9 -9.30% 35 EOD3
15 Apr 2015 iShares S&P Europe 350 IndexIEV Long 45.95 43.73 -4.83% 43.75 EOD3
15 Apr 2015 United States Oil FundUSO Long 19.71 19.88 +0.86% 17.50 EOD3
29 Apr 2015 iShares DJ US Health Care Providers FundIHF Long 130.785 142.95 +9.30% 123 EOD3
6 May 2015 SPDR S&P 500 TrustSPY Long 208.04 205.85 -1.05% 204.50 EOD3
20 May 2015 iShares Taiwan IndexEWT Long 16.5 15.78 -4.36% 15.25 EOD3
27 May 2015 ISHS Russell 2000 IndexIWM Long 124.75 124.86 +0.09% 122 EOD3
3 Jun 2015 iShares GS Software Index FundIGV Long 102.19 99.47 -2.66% 98 EOD3
3 Jun 2015 CurrencyShares Euro TrustFXE Long 110.77 109.46 -1.18% 107 EOD3
3 Jun 2015 iShares Italy IndexEWI Long 15.96 14.89 -6.70% 14.80 EOD3
10 Jun 2015 DJ US Regional Banks Index FundIAT Long 37.53 36.61 -2.45% 35.80 EOD3
10 Jun 2015 WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend FundDFJ Long 56.71 56.55 -0.28% 55 EOD3
10 Jun 2015 Market Vectors Russia ETFRSX Long 18.59 18.28 -1.67% 17.50 EOD3
24 Jun 2015 iShares Japan IndexEWJ Long 13.06 12.81 -1.91% 12.60 EOD3
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop Stop Type
2 Jul 2014 Agriculture ETFDBA Short 27.47 23.35 +15.00% 28.50 EOD3
11 Nov 2014 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen TrustFXY Short 84.29 79.35 +5.86%. 90 EOD3
24 Jun 2015 SPDR Sector Trst UtilitiesXLU Short 41.82 41.46 +0.86% 43 EOD3
24 Jun 2015 iShares 7-10 yr T-Bond FundIEF Short 104.85 105.01 -0.15% 106 EOD3

Model Portfolio Notes
Allocation  – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
Guide to Stops
ITD - executed when the stop is touched intraday. Should the stock gap through an intraday level at the open then the trade will be closed out at the opening price.
EOD - activated following an end of day close beneath the stop level. Trade then closed out on the following session. Our trade will be closed out at the day's mid-range (to reflect a fair/average exit price).
EOD3 - activated following three consecutive end-of-day closes beneath the stop level. Trade then closed out on the fourth day. Our trade is closed out at the day's mid-range. 
Adjusted stops are effective from the time of publication.
Manual closures detailed in report - Closed out on the session's closing price.
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