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ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
30 August 2016

Market Overview


Equity funds maintain their uptrends, with many consolidating at their highs. The pause is allowing indicators to unwind slightly and that is good for the market going forwards. 

Our NYSE Bullish %, a broad measure of the U.S. equity market's internal health, holds at its best level for 2 years. The indicator still has room for further expansion and that would coincide with even higher levels for the equity funds.

Today we add a domestic equity fund, the Broker Dealers, and also buy the Emerging Markets ETF.





This Week's Trades

  • Broker-Dealers Index (IAI) - Buying
  • Biotechnology (IBB) - Closing short
  • Emerging Markets (EEM) - Buying

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.



Other ETF Highlights


  • Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) - Buy
  • Financial (XLF) - Buy
  • Social Media Index (SOCL) - Buy
  • Taiwan Index (EWT) - Buy reiterated
  • Brazilian Real (BZF) - Buy
  • Livestock (COW) - Sell reiterated
  • US Investment Grade Bond (LQD) - Buy





US Equity Indices

The Dow Jones Industrials fund is finding short-term support from its 50-day exponential moving average. With the 14-day RSI finding neutral, the uptrend is well positioned to reassert from here. 

Fresh record price highs likely in the days ahead.





US Sector Indices


The Broker-Dealers Index fund is reasserting its long-term price uptrend. This month has seen the P&F relative chart reverse up to commence development of a potential 5 year bottom. 

We shall buy the IAI this afternoon and would look to exit should trading fall back beneath $39.



The past week has seen the NASDAQ Biotechnology fund reverse down from January trendline resistance. The yearlong corrective channel looks to be resuming. With the potential for a return to the 2016 lows, we shall close out our long position today. 



The Financial fund is rallying towards a new 52-week high. The fund has outperformed since early July and that relative strength is holding this week. $24, now support, could be used as a stoploss.



The Social Media Index maintains its 2016 price and relative uptrends. The rally is not overstretched and that should allow fresh record price highs over the next week. A move back beneath the 20-day exponential moving average could be used as a stoploss.



Other Developed Indices


The Taiwan Index is rising towards the top end of its 5 year price range. The relative chart is also showing attractive action as it rallies from the bottom of a 15 year range. Outperformance should continue in the months ahead.




Emerging Indices


The Emerging Markets fund remains in price and relative uptrends off its January lows. With the 14-day RSI back down to neutral, the rally is ready to reassert. 

We shall buy the EEM this afternoon. We would look to exit should trading slip down beneath $35 as that would put pressure on this year's rally.





The Brazilian Real Fund should soon reassert its 2016 price and relative uptrends. Momentum has unwound and support from the 50-day exponential moving average is nearing. A trailing stop could be placed just under that average.






The Livestock ETF is dropping to new all-time price and relative lows (fund listed in 2007). Weakness should continue as momentum is not oversold. 





The US Investment Grade Bond fund is on the verge of printing record highs. Solid support is being provided by the 50-day exponential moving average and the 14-day RSI is comfortably at neutral. A stoploss could be placed just under $122.

Present yield is 3.22%.



ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
22 Dec 2015 SPDR Consumer Staples XLP Long 50.55 54.63 +8.07%
26 Apr 2016 Sugar SGG Long 36.46 47.55 +30.42%
28 Jun 2016 Gold GLD Long 125.32 126.3 +0.78%
28 Jun 2016 Market Vectors-Gold Miners GDX Long 26.6 27.24 +2.41%
12 Jul 2016 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Long 119.72 123.7 +3.32%
12 Jul 2016 iShares DJ US Telecom IYZ Long 34.42 32.25 -6.30%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund ITA Long 127.66 131.88 +3.31%
12 Jul 2016 SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT Long 44.21 45.23 +2.31%
12 Jul 2016 Semiconductor HOLDRS SMH Long 59.36 66.32 +11.73%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Australia Index EWA Long 20.27 20.65 +1.87%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Taiwan Index EWT Long 14.52 15.27 +5.17%
12 Jul 2016 iPath MSCI India Index ETN INP Long 67.95 68.65 +1.03%
19 Jul 2016 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 112.13 116.94 +4.29%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Long 48.81 49.17 +0.74%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Long 45.21 47.23 +4.47%
19 Jul 2016 iShares Hong Kong Index EWH Long 20.37 20.95 +2.85%
19 Jul 2016 Base Metals DBB Long 13.79 13.64 -1.09%
26 Jul 2016 SPDR Consumer Discretionary XLY Long 81.63 81.22 -0.50%
26 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Health Care XLV Long 74.78 73.23 -2.07%
26 Jul 2016 iShares Brazil Index EWZ Long 32.57 33.96 +4.27%
2 Aug 2016 iShares GS Semiconductor Index SOXX Long 102.48 109.18 +6.54%
2 Aug 2016 iShares South Korea Index EWY Long 55.26 56.68 +2.57%
16 Aug 2016 iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology IBB Long 291.09 283.87 -2.48%
16 Aug 2016 Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc CAF Long 18.93 19.15 +1.16%

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
12 Jul 2016 United States Oil Fund USO Short 11.19 10.85 +3.04%
12 Jul 2016 Livestock COW Short 22.3388 20.8399 +6.71%
12 Jul 2016 CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust FXC Short 75.97 76.01 -0.05%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
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