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ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
17 July 2017
     

Market Overview

 

The internal condition of the market continues to improve. Last week we showed the NYSE % 30-week moving average indicator and % 10-week moving average, with both improving further since. 

Another measure of breadth for the NYSE stocks, is the Bullish %. That has been steadily improving over the past couple of months, likely resuming the up trend off the start of 2016 low. Last week saw fresh strength.

Expanding breadth is adding bullish confirmation to the reassertions by the equity funds. We remain with the trend.

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  • None

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.

 


 

Other ETF Highlights

 

  • Dow Industrials (DIA) - Buy reiterated
  • NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) - Buy reiterated
  • Consumer Staples (XLP) - Buy
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - Buy
  • Hong Kong Index (EWH) - Buy
  • France Index (EWQ) - Buy 
  • Russia (RSX) - Buy
  • Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) - Buy
  • Copper (JJC) - Buy
  • US Investment Grade Bond (LQD) - Buy

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The Dow Industrials ETF broke out to another fresh all-time high on Friday. Momentum is yet to enter overbought and that should allow the rally to continue. We still see any intraday weakness as a buying opportunity.

 

The NASDAQ 100 continues to strengthen following a pull-back into the 50-day exponential moving average. Record highs imminent as here too, momentum is not over-stretched. 

The P&F relative chart maintains its long-term uptrend.

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Consumer Staples ETF last week found support from its 200-day exponential moving average, with the 14-day RSI rallying up from an oversold condition. Watching for the P&F chart to reverse higher to provide upside confirmation.

 

The Consumer Discretionary fund is resuming its medium-term up channel, with trading now gaining a footing above the 50-day exponential moving average. The 14-day RSI is only at neutral and that should allow fresh record highs over the next few weeks.

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The Hong Kong Index fund is reasserting its 2017 price and relative uptrends following the test of its 50-day exponential moving average at the start of the month. New 52-week price highs expected over the near-term, with all-time highs just a few bucks away.

 

The France Index fund has bounced off support from its 50-day exponential moving average, resuming its uptrend. New 52-week highs should print over the next week. Momentum is comfortably positioned. 

 

 

Emerging Indices

 

The Russia ETF recovered back above its 200-day exponential moving average last week. The MACD is rising from oversold, through neutral, with ample upside above. 

The P&F chart shows a potential base developing over the past 2.5 years. Clearing the January high would activate the base, projecting a move towards $30.

 

 

Currencies

 

The Australian Dollar Trust made a new 52-week high on Friday as it attempts to activate a two year base. A couple of closes above $79 would achieve that. The bottom would offer a target towards $87.

 

 

Commodities

 

The past 3 months have seen a good recovery off support from the 200-day exponential moving average by the Copper ETF. The 14-day RSI is relaxed and should allow strength to continue.

Moving to $33 would defeat the long-term downtrend which started off the 2011 high, as clear on the P&F chart.

 

 

Bonds

 

The US Investment Grade Bond fund completed its correction into the 50-day exponential moving average last week. The 5 month uptrend is reasserting and momentum is favorable. A stoploss could be placed just under this month's low.

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
12 Jul 2016 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Long 119.72 141.73 +18.38%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund ITA Long 127.66 163.03 +27.71%
12 Jul 2016 Semiconductor HOLDRS SMH Long 59.36 86.82 +46.26%
19 Jul 2016 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 112.13 142.12 +26.75%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Long 48.81 55.25 +13.19%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Long 45.21 56.86 +25.77%
19 Jul 2016 Base Metals DBB Long 13.79 16.39 +18.85%
2 Aug 2016 iShares GS Semiconductor Index SOXX Long 102.48 149.56 +45.94%
30 Aug 2016 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Long 41.8277 53.74 +28.48%
6 Sep 2016 iShares GS Software Index Fund IGV Long 113.91 141.51 +24.23%
6 Sep 2016 iShares Japan Index EWJ Long 50.12 53.63 +7.00%
13 Sep 2016 DJ US Regional Banks Index Fund IAT Long 35.24 45.84 +30.08%
8 Nov 2016 iShares DJ Transportation Average IYT Long 149.74 175.4 +17.14%
8 Nov 2016 streetTRACKS KBW Bank ETF KBE Long 34.94 43.78 +25.30%
22 Nov 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Industrial XLI Long 61.91 69.43 +12.15%
29 Nov 2016 Diamond Trust- 1/100 DJIA DIA Long 191.19 216.26 +13.11%
6 Dec 2016 iShares Switzerland Index EWL Long 28.85 34.55 +19.76%
10 Jan 2017 SPDR Sector Trst Health Care XLV Long 71.5 80.13 +12.07%
28 Feb 2017 DJ US Pharmaceuticals Index Fund IHE Long 153.26 156.43 +2.07%
7 Mar 2017 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Long 71.51 65.4 -8.54%
21 Mar 2017 iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund EZA Long 59.73 59.44 -0.49%
9 May 2017 United States Oil Fund USO Long 9.57 9.59 +0.21%
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
13 Sep 2016 iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund MUB Short 112.63 110.36 +2.02%
4 Oct 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Short 47.29 51.92 -9.79%
14 Feb 2017 Livestock COW Short 22.16 24.9 -12.36%
10 Jul 2017 iShares Barclays US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Fund TIP Short 112.41 113.05 -0.57%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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