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ETF Global Opportunities
Tarquin Coe
20 September 2018
     

Market Overview

 

Breadth for the equity market remains in reasonable shape. It could be stronger but importantly, it is not deteriorating. The NYSE Bullish % remains above 50%, with rising P&F direction. 

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  •  Utilities (XLU) - closing long

 

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close. 

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The Dow Industrials ETF has today extended to fresh all-time highs. The 14-day RSI is yet to reach the overbought extreme of January. Rally should continue over the short-term at least. 

 

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Utilities ETF is pressuring the rising trend of the past 4 months, closing yesterday just under its 50-day exponential moving average. Momentum could unwind further over the next few weeks.

The XLU portfolio long will be closed out on the final bell today.

 

 

  

The Consumer Discretionary ETF remains in its strong healthy uptrend. This afternoon has seen an extension to another all-time high. The 14-day RSI remains at a comfortable level and that should allow strength to continue.

 

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The Japan fund has rallied over the past two weeks, reclaiming support from the 200-day exponential moving average. The long-term uptrend, off the March 2009 low, is likely resuming.

The July Double Bottom on the P&F chart is a suspected Bear Trap.

 

 

Emerging Indices

 

The China 25 Index is rallying over the short-term, towards the top of its 3 month range at $44. However, that is a selling opportunity since the trend since January remains down. 

The P&F relative chart, versus the U.S. equity market, remains in its strong downtrend off the July 2009 peak. 

 

 

 

Currencies

 

The Canadian Dollar Trust is finding support across $75, attempting to resume the rising channel of the past 2 years. 

The P&F chart shows trading may be finding support from the region of its 2.5 year Bullish Trendline, dating back to February 2016.

 

 

 

Commodities

 

The Gold ETF remains in the downtrend off the April high. The trend is pausing, enabling momentum, the 14-day RSI, to return to neutral. 

The P&F price and relative charts both illustrate the long-term downtrend. The relative chart, versus the equity market, has dropped to a level not seen since 2006. 

 

 

 

Bonds

 

The U.S. 20 year ETF is testing its lows for the past 3 years. Momentum is oversold and that should permit a recovery attempt over the next few weeks. In the meantime, volatility is to be expected as support is probed. 

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
30 Aug 2016 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Long 41.8277 65.04 +55.50%
26 Feb 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Long 50.2 53.2 +5.98%
12 Jun 2018 SPDR Consumer Discretionary XLY Long 110.89 116.99 +5.50%
21 Jun 2018 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 175.71 182.7 +3.98%
21 Jun 2018 SPDR Midcap Index Trust MDY Long 361.37 370.26 +2.46%
21 Jun 2018 iShares Japan Index EWJ Long 58.59 59.75 +1.98%
21 Jun 2018 iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology IBB Long 112.61 117.66 +4.48%
26 Jun 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Financial XLF Long 26.69 28.73 +7.64%
26 Jun 2018 iShares Hong Kong Index EWH Long 24.38 23.97 -1.68%
10 Jul 2018 Diamond Trust- 1/100 DJIA DIA Long 249.23 264.42 +6.09%
10 Jul 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Health Care XLV Long 86.97 93.6 +7.62%
26 Jul 2018 iShares GS Software Index Fund IGV Long 196.6 199.41 +1.43%
7 Aug 2018 SPDR S&P 500 Trust SPY Long 285.58 291.22 +1.97%
23 Aug 2018 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Long 170.66 169.65 -0.59%
28 Aug 2018 CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust FXF Long 95.85 96.7 +0.89%
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
14 Feb 2017 Livestock COWTF Short 22.16 22.73 -2.57%
20 Feb 2018 Agriculture DBA Short 18.98 16.97 +10.59%
20 Mar 2018 iShares South Korea Index EWY Short 75.85 66.6 +12.20%
17 May 2018 iShares Italy Index EWI Short 32.4 28.57 +11.82%
28 Aug 2018 iShares 7-10 yr T-Bond Fund IEF Short 102.43 100.945 +1.45%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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