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ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
24 May 2016
     

Market Overview

 

Despite the recent pull-back by the S&P 500 Trust being shallow, indicators have unwound substantially. The overlay of the SPY and our short-term-composite illustrates that point.

The short-term-composite is firmly in oversold territory and turning up. There is more than enough upside room on the indicator to allow the SPY to extend to record highs from here.

We remain net long equity funds. 

 

Note - charts/portfolio are up to date as far as yesterday's close (today's strength is yet to print)

 

 

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  •  None.

 

 


 

Other ETF Highlights

 

  • NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) - Buy reiterated
  • S&P 500 (SPY) - Buy
  • Biotechnology (IBB) - Buy reiterated
  • Semiconductor (SMH) - Buy
  • Software (IGV) - Buy
  • Financial (XLF) - Buy reiterated
  • United Kingdom (EWU) - Buy
  • Brazil (EWZ) - Sell
  • British Pound (FXB) - Watch to Buy
  • Gold (GLD) - Sell
  • Livestock (COW) - Sell reiterated
  • 1-3 year T-Bond Fund (SHY) - Sell

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The NASDAQ 100 ETF is today breaking above its 200-day exponential moving average following a 5 week consolidation beneath it. The MACD will be turning up from just under neutral. 

The uptrend is reasserting and new 20016 price highs expected over the next few weeks.

 

 

The S&P 500 fund is up over 1% this afternoon and that will enable a breakout from the corrective channel off the mid-April high. That pull-back successfully tested support from the 200-day exponential moving average. Here too, upside resumption underway.

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Biotechnology Fund is higher by 2% this afternoon, pulling trading up from the bottom of its 4 month bottom attempt. The 14-day RSI has the slack to allow a test of the neckline of the bottom at $290. Clearing that level would activate the base, forecasting a move towards $340.

 

 

 

 

The P&F price and relative charts for the Semiconductor ETF have both reversed up the past two sessions. 2009 uptrends are likely resuming. A stoploss could be placed just beneath this month's low of $50.88.

 

 

 

The Software Index Fund is close to breaking out to new all-time price and relative highs. Strong uptrends. Entry suggested ahead of the move. 

 

 

The Financial ETF is higher by 1.5% late afternoon and that will reassert the three month up channel. Support has been provided by the 200-day exponential moving average and the 14-RSI is attractively positioned just above neutral.

 

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The United Kingdom ETF is higher by over 2.5% this afternoon. That move will resume the up channel off its January low as well as test resistance from the 200-day exponential moving average. Momentum is not overbought. A break above the 200-day this week would be a strong buy signal. 

 

 

 

 

Emerging Indices

 

The Brazil Fund reversed down on its P&F price chart yesterday. That move implies the long-term downtrend is reasserting. 

The relative ratio, versus the U.S. equity market, remains in its long-term downtrend. Avoid.

 

 

Currencies

 

The British Pound Sterling Trust is rallying 1% this afternoon. That will put the price at the neckline of its 5 month bottom attempt. Clearing that level and the 200-day exponential moving average would activate the bottom and raise a target towards $151. Sufficient slack on the 14-day RSI to allow that pop.

 

 

Commodities

 

The Gold ETF is lower by 1.7% this afternoon and that will pull trading beneath the 50-day exponential moving average. A potential top is taking shape between $115 and $124. 

Longs should be avoided given the underperformance, versus the S&P 500, since mid-February.

 

 

 

The Livestock Fund is breaking lower again following the end of April oversold bounce. New 52-week price and relative lows possible over the next few weeks. 

 

 

Bonds

 

The 1-3 year T-Bond Fund remains in a retreat off the top end of a yearlong range. The next downside level to watch is the March low of $84.55.

The relative ratio, versus the equity market, is reasserting its downtrend off the February peak. Underperformance to continue. 

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
27 Aug 2015 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 105.64 106.33 +0.65%
3 Sep 2015 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Long 39.91 42.65 +6.87%
3 Nov 2015 iShares Japan Index EWJ Long 12.4 11.57 -6.69%
22 Dec 2015 SPDR Consumer Staples XLP Long 50.55 52.21 +3.28%
30 Dec 2015 iShares DJ US Medical Devices Fund IHI Long 123.56 128.89 +4.31%
10 Feb 2016 Diamond Trust- 1/100 DJIA DIA Long 159.39 174.78 +9.66%
17 Feb 2016 PowerShares Aerospace & Defense PPA Long 32.89 36.48 +10.92%
2 Mar 2016 Market Vectors Russia ETF RSX Long 15.12 16.64 +10.05%
17 Mar 2016 SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF XME Long 20.73 21.16 +2.07%
17 Mar 2016 CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust FXC Long 76.3 75.33 -1.27%
17 Mar 2016 United States Oil Fund USO Long 10.55 11.66 +10.52%
22 Mar 2016 DJ US Pharmaceuticals Index Fund IHE Long 138.19 141.36 +2.29%
29 Mar 2016 SPDR Consumer Discretionary XLY Long 78.69 77.43 -1.60%
29 Mar 2016 iShares DJ Transportation Average IYT Long 142.47 137.26 -3.66%
5 Apr 2016 iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology IBB Long 269.64 266.03 -1.34%
5 Apr 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Health Care XLV Long 68.47 69.41 +1.37%
12 Apr 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Long 63.96 65.99 +3.17%
21 Apr 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Financial XLF Long 23.33 23.19 -0.60%
21 Apr 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Industrial XLI Long 56.27 54.93 -2.38%
21 Apr 2016 Base Metals DBB Long 12.97 12.27 -5.40%
26 Apr 2016 Sugar SGG Long 36.46 38.27 +4.96%
10 May 2016 iShares S&P Global Energy Index IXC Long 31.08 31 -0.26%

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
3 Feb 2016 Natural Gas UNG Short 7.55 6.65 +11.92%
3 Feb 2016 US 20+yrs TLT Short 127.95 130.44 -1.95%
5 Apr 2016 Livestock COW Short 23.54 23.12 +1.78%
26 Apr 2016 streetTRACKS SPDR Homebuilders XHB Short 34.83 32.98 +5.31%
17 May 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Short 48.6108 47.86 +1.54%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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