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ETF Global Opportunities
By Tarquin Coe
5 July 2018
     

Market Overview

 

Last week we showed medium-term breadth for the market to be in reasonable health. Short-term breadth is showing improvement and that in turn will soon strengthen the medium-term indicators. 

The NYSE % 10-week moving average and NASDAQ % 10-week moving average indicator have curled up the past week. Today's strength should seem both strengthen further. 

We remain net long U.S. equity funds. 

 

 

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  • None

 

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The NASDAQ 100 ETF is consolidating following its record high in June. A pull-back occurred into the 50-day exponential moving average. 

The P&F chart shows trading remains above the long-term rising trendline. 

​Strength should soon resume.

 

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Consumer Discretionary fund remains at record price and relative highs on its P&F charts. The past couple of weeks have seen those trends consolidate, normal healthy action in an uptrend. Watching for an upside reassertion soon.

​Buy advice reiterated.

 

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The Europe 350 Index ETF is attempting to find support across the $44 level. Support was found there in mid-2017 on a correction during that year's rally. However, given the weak relative P&F chart, versus the U.S. equity market, the fund is best avoided. That relative P&F chart broke down to new long-term lows last month.

 

 

 

Emerging Indices

 

The India fund is set to soon print new 52-week lows. The 14-day RSI is not oversold and that will permit further weakness. Next downside level to watch is $75.

The P&F relative chart remains in a long-term downtrend, a strong reason to avoid longs. 

 

 

 

Currencies

 

​The British Pound Sterling Trust remains in it downtrend off the April peak. Attempts to reverse that trend on the way down have all failed a week or two later. With momentum no longer being oversold, the downtrend should soon resume. $125 is the next level to watch and should that fail to halt the decline, then $120 is next.

 

 

Commodities

 

Since last week's report the Gold fund has weakened. However, a positive development has occurred. The price is finding support from the December 2017 low and given that momentum is oversold, that could result in a tradeable oversold bounce. 

Long-term we would remain cautious given the downtrend of the past 5 years against the equity market.

 

 

Bonds

 

The 20+ years Bond Fund is now testing the top end of its 5 month range, marked out by peaks in March and May. Clearing those highs would activate a bottom, projecting a move up towards $128. 

The P&F relative chart, versus the equity market, shows a base underway of its own since the start of January. 

Current yield is 2.54%.

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
30 Aug 2016 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Long 41.8277 63.8 +52.53%
26 Feb 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Long 50.2 52.48 +4.54%
12 Jun 2018 SPDR Consumer Discretionary XLY Long 110.89 108.9 -1.79%
21 Jun 2018 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 175.71 170.8 -2.79%
21 Jun 2018 SPDR Midcap Index Trust MDY Long 361.37 355.99 -1.49%
21 Jun 2018 iShares Japan Index EWJ Long 58.59 56.92 -2.85%
21 Jun 2018 iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology IBB Long 112.61 110.59 -1.79%
26 Jun 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Financial XLF Long 26.69 26.48 -0.79%
26 Jun 2018 iShares Hong Kong Index EWH Long 24.38 23.89 -2.01%
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
14 Feb 2017 Livestock COWTF Short 22.16 22.38 -0.99%
20 Feb 2018 Agriculture ETF DBA Short 18.98 17.67 +6.90%
20 Feb 2018 Market Vectors Russia ETF RSX Short 23.09 21 +9.05%
5 Mar 2018 US Investment Grade Crp LQD Short 116.21 114.66 +1.33%
20 Mar 2018 iShares South Korea Index EWY Short 75.85 65.74 +13.33%
17 May 2018 iShares Italy Index EWI Short 32.4 28.97 +10.59%
4 Jun 2018 US Investment Grade Crp LQD Short 114.65 114.66 -0.01%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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