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ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
27 September 2016

Market Overview


Despite recent equity market volatility, internals are undamaged.

Medium-term breadth for the general market, the NYSE Bullish %, holds its August breakout to a 52-week high. Providing there is no reversal down on this P&F chart, we shall continue to run net long equity ETFs. 

The main ETFs we would avoid on the longside are those related to Crude Oil and Energy. 




This Week's Trades

  • None

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.



Other ETF Highlights


  • NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) - Buy reiterated
  • Energy (XLE) - Sell
  • Consumer Staples (XLP) - Hold
  • Social Media Index (SOCL) - Buy
  • Italy Index (EWI) - Sell
  • Mexico Index (EWW) - Sell 
  • British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB) - Sell
  • United States Oil (USO) - Sell reiterated
  • US High Yield Bond (HYG) - Sell





US Equity Indices


The NASDAQ 100 fund recorded a new all-time high last week. Trading has since taken a step back but the general uptrend remains. 

The P&F relative chart for the QQQ has reasserted sharply its primary uptrend over the past 3 months. Outperformance should continue.




US Sector Indices


Falling Crude Oil is today causing weakness on the Energy ETF chart. The fund was lower by 1% earlier today, testing the 200-day exponential moving average. Closing beneath that line and also $65 would turn the range of the past six months into a top formation. 




The Consumer Staples fund is higher this afternoon by almost 0.5%. Trading this month is attempting a small base across the 200-day exponential moving average. Note the MACD indicator oversold and curling up. Watching for an upside reassertion from here. 




The Social Media Index ETF hit a new all-time high last week, with the relative ratio versus the S&P 500 at a 52-week high. The 14-day RSI still has upside room to allow the rally to continue.



Other Developed Indices


The Italy Index fund appears to be reasserting its yearlong price and relative downtrends following an encounter with resistance from the 100-day exponential moving average earlier in the month. A return to the June low around $10 is likely over the next few weeks.




Emerging Indices


The Mexico Index ETF has reasserted its long-term price and relative downtrends this month. The relative chart has fallen to a new 10 year low. The index itself should soon test its lows from January. 

Underperformance expected to continue.





The British Pound Sterling Trust has returned to its lows from July and August. Momentum is not oversold and therefore a break of those lows is possible. If support at $125 were to fail, then the next level to watch would be $120.






The United States Oil fund is failing to trend higher, instead gradually deteriorating from its falling 200-day exponential moving average. With the 14-day RSI at neutral, the long-term downtrend could soon resume. Fresh shorts could place a stop just above the 200-day.





The US High Yield Bond fund has encountered two year trendline resistance. A reversal down from here would resume the top building effort of the past several years.

The P&F relative chart remains in a long-term downtrend.



ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
22 Dec 2015 SPDR Consumer Staples XLP Long 50.55 52.89 +4.63%
26 Apr 2016 Sugar SGG Long 36.46 52.07 +42.81%
28 Jun 2016 Gold GLD Long 125.32 127.55 +1.78%
28 Jun 2016 Market Vectors-Gold Miners GDX Long 26.6 26.78 +0.68%
12 Jul 2016 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Long 119.72 123.23 +2.93%
12 Jul 2016 iShares DJ US Telecom IYZ Long 34.42 32.29 -6.19%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund ITA Long 127.66 128.73 +0.84%
12 Jul 2016 SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT Long 44.21 43.3 -2.06%
12 Jul 2016 Semiconductor HOLDRS SMH Long 59.36 66.37 +11.81%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Australia Index EWA Long 20.27 20.52 +1.23%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Taiwan Index EWT Long 14.52 15.46 +6.47%
12 Jul 2016 iPath MSCI India Index ETN INP Long 67.95 69.36 +2.08%
19 Jul 2016 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 112.13 117.34 +4.65%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Long 48.81 47.09 -3.52%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Long 45.21 47.21 +4.42%
19 Jul 2016 iShares Hong Kong Index EWH Long 20.37 21.75 +6.77%
19 Jul 2016 Base Metals DBB Long 13.79 13.74 -0.36%
26 Jul 2016 SPDR Consumer Discretionary XLY Long 81.63 78.79 -3.48%
26 Jul 2016 iShares Brazil Index EWZ Long 32.57 33.41 +2.58%
2 Aug 2016 iShares GS Semiconductor Index SOXX Long 102.48 107.8 +5.19%
2 Aug 2016 iShares South Korea Index EWY Long 55.26 57.03 +3.20%
16 Aug 2016 Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc CAF Long 18.93 19.29 +1.90%
30 Aug 2016 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Long 41.8277 40.87 -2.29%
30 Aug 2016 iShares MSCI Emerging EEM Long 36.94 37.08 +0.38%
6 Sep 2016 SPDR Midcap Index Trust MDY Long 287.27 280.34 -2.41%
6 Sep 2016 iShares GS Software Index Fund IGV Long 113.91 112.17 -1.53%
6 Sep 2016 iShares Japan Index EWJ Long 12.53 12.53 0.00%
6 Sep 2016 Silver SLV Long 19.05 18.41 -3.36%
13 Sep 2016 DJ US Regional Banks Index Fund IAT Long 35.24 34.48 -2.16%

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
12 Jul 2016 United States Oil Fund USO Short 11.19 10.43 +6.79%
12 Jul 2016 Livestock COW Short 22.3388 19.73 +11.68%
12 Jul 2016 CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust FXC Short 75.97 74.75 +1.61%
6 Sep 2016 iShares Barclays US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Fund TIP Short 116.14 116.27 -0.11%
13 Sep 2016 iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund MUB Short 112.63 112.73 -0.09%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
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