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ETF Global Opportunities

10 January 2019
     

Market Overview

 

The Short-term-composite indicator has recovered from its oversold December condition and is now nearing 60%. Overlaid onto the indicator is the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in green. The SPY has corrected from oversold but remains in its corrective trend. That market trend is vulnerable to a downside reassertion now that the market is no longer oversold. 

Portfolio remains net short equity funds.

 

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  • None.

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The NASDAQ 100 rallied from oversold. The counter-trend move is now nearing the 50-day exponential moving average and may well turn down again as it did in November, on two occasions. Should that repeat, fresh shorts could be considered.

 

 

 

The Russell 2000 Index fund is another example of the present market rally running into moving average resistance. Note the 14-day RSI back to just above neutral, prepped for a potential resumption lower.  

 

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Global Energy Index fund rallied off an oversold condition in December. The price is now nearing resistance from the falling 50-day exponential moving average and momentum is no longer oversold. Potential for the short-term rally to soon tire.

 

 

The Semiconductor Index encounters potential resistance from its falling 50-day exponential moving average. The 14-day RSI is back to neutral. If the correction remains underway, it would reassert from here.

 

 

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

International index funds have also bounced as far as falling moving average resistance. The Japan Index fund is testing its 50-day exponential moving average. Momentum, the 14-day RSI, has returned to the neutral sweet-spot.

The P&F relative chart reflects the long-term underperformance by the EWJ against the U.S. market.

 

 

 

 

 

Commodities

 

The United States Oil Fund has reversed up this month on its P&F chart but that alone is not a buy signal. The long-term trend remains to the downside. To end that downtrend the price would need to clear the October 2018 high and that is some way off.

 

 

 

Bonds

 

The 1-3year T-Bond fund holds its uptrend off the early November low. The pull-back over the past week is healthy, enabling momentum to cool off. The price and relative uptrends expected to soon resume.

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
28 Aug 2018 CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust FXF Long 95.85 95.7378 -0.12%
11 Oct 2018 Market Vectors-Gold Miners GDX Long 19.87 21.32 +7.30%
16 Oct 2018 Gold GLD Long 115.8 122.31 +5.62%
2 Nov 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Long 53.15 52.74 -0.77%
3 Jan 2019 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY Long 88.82 88.41 -0.46%
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
20 Feb 2018 Agriculture DBA Short 18.98 17.31 +8.80%
17 May 2018 iShares Italy Index EWI Short 32.4 25.52 +21.23%
11 Oct 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Short 68.63 63.38 +7.65%
11 Oct 2018 iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund FXI Short 39.08 40.33 -3.20%
11 Oct 2018 US High Yield HYG Short 84.7 83.83 +1.03%
16 Oct 2018 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Short 158.64 142.9 +9.92%
25 Oct 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Short 66.98 62.2 +7.14%
2 Nov 2018 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Short 169.38 160.82 +5.05%
20 Nov 2018 iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan EPP Short 41.71 42.49 -1.87%
6 Dec 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Financial XLF Short 25.6 24.43 +4.57%
13 Dec 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Industrial XLI Short 67.99 67.03 +1.41%
13 Dec 2018 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Short 57.66 57.7 -0.07%
13 Dec 2018 Natural Gas UNG Short 33.44 24.89 +25.57%
21 Dec 2018 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Short 48.6 52.02 -7.04%
21 Dec 2018 Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund Inc CAF Short 17.87 19 -6.32%
3 Jan 2019 iShares South Korea Index EWY Short 56.82 59.66 -5.00%
3 Jan 2019 iShares Mexico (free) Index EWW Short 41.79 44.35 -6.13%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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