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ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
13 November 2017
     

Market Overview

 

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading just shy of record highs yet the short-term-composite is not overbought. The indicator has unwound over the past month and is now under neutral. That should allow an extension higher soon by the trend.

We remain net long equity funds.

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  • None

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.

 


 

Other ETF Highlights

 

  • NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) - Buy reiterated
  • Industrial (XLI) - Buy reiterated
  • Semiconductor (SMH) - Buy reiterated
  • Europe 350 Index (IEV) - Buy
  • China 25 Index (FXI) - Buy 
  • British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB) - Buy
  • Base Metals (DBB) - Buy reiterated
  • 1-3 year T-Bond (SHY) - Sell

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The NASDAQ 100 fund is consolidating at all-time price highs, with the relative ratio around decade highs. Momentum, the 14-day RSI, is no longer overstretched, and will allow the rally to continue over the short-term. We remain with the trend.

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Industrial ETF has corrected off its record high and now looks to be finding support from its 50-day exponential moving average. The MACD has unwound with the pull-back and is close to neutral. The relative ratio, versus the S&P 500, is also down to an attractive level, its 52-week floor. Watching for an upside reassertion from here.

 

 

The Semiconductor ETF maintains its uptrend, with a slight retreat last week. The 14-day RSI here too is not overbought and should allow a fresh up leg. Outperformance to continue.

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The Europe 350 Index is attempting to find support from its 50-day exponential moving average, trading sideways over the past several weeks. The MACD is down to neutral, a level it has turned up from previously. Longs could be considered here, with a stop just under recent lows.

 

 

 

Emerging Indices

 

The China 25 Index fund made new 52-week price and relative highs, versus the U.S. equity market, last week. Strength expected to continue as the trend targets the highs from 2015 around $50.

 

 

Currencies

 

The British Pound Sterling Trust maintains its rising up trend of 2017. The 200-day exponential moving average is providing short-term support. With the 14-day RSI basing across neutral, the uptrend should soon resume.  $126 could be used as a stop.

 

 

Commodities

 

The Base Metals ETF has consolidated over recent weeks, now finding support from its 50-day exponential moving average. An upside reassertion possible from here. New longs could place a stop just under last week's low.

 

 

Bonds

 

The 1-3 year T-Bond fund moved to a new 52-week low on Friday. Weakness looks set to continue as the chart is not oversold. Breaking $84 would equate to new 5 year lows.

The P&F relative chart reflects long-term underperformance.

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
12 Jul 2016 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Long 119.72 146.57 +22.43%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund ITA Long 127.66 179.22 +40.39%
12 Jul 2016 Semiconductor HOLDRS SMH Long 59.36 102.86 +73.28%
19 Jul 2016 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 112.13 153.68 +37.06%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Long 48.81 58.11 +19.05%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Long 45.21 63.5 +40.46%
19 Jul 2016 Base Metals DBB Long 13.79 18.48 +34.01%
2 Aug 2016 iShares GS Semiconductor Index SOXX Long 102.48 176.48 +72.21%
30 Aug 2016 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Long 41.8277 57.69 +37.92%
6 Sep 2016 iShares GS Software Index Fund IGV Long 113.91 155.87 +36.84%
6 Sep 2016 iShares Japan Index EWJ Long 50.12 59.08 +17.88%
13 Sep 2016 DJ US Regional Banks Index Fund IAT Long 35.24 45.61 +29.43%
8 Nov 2016 iShares DJ Transportation Average IYT Long 149.74 171.12 +14.28%
8 Nov 2016 streetTRACKS KBW Bank ETF KBE Long 34.94 43.68 +25.01%
22 Nov 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Industrial XLI Long 61.91 71.06 +14.78%
29 Nov 2016 Diamond Trust- 1/100 DJIA DIA Long 191.19 234.43 +22.62%
6 Dec 2016 iShares Switzerland Index EWL Long 28.85 34.15 +18.37%
10 Jan 2017 SPDR Sector Trst Health Care XLV Long 71.5 81.2 +13.57%
28 Feb 2017 DJ US Pharmaceuticals Index Fund IHE Long 153.26 150.76 -1.63%
7 Mar 2017 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Long 71.51 69.66 -2.59%
21 Mar 2017 iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund EZA Long 59.73 59.04 -1.16%
9 May 2017 United States Oil Fund USO Long 9.57 11.42 +19.33%
7 Aug 2017 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish UUP Long 24.22 24.54 +1.32%
5 Sep 2017 iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology IBB Long 333.04 312.18 -6.26%
25 Sep 2017 Market Vectors-Gold Miners GDX Long 23.83 22.52 -5.50%
23 Oct 2017 General Commodity ETF DBC Long 15.6 16.4 +5.13%

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
4 Oct 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Short 47.29 55.51 -17.38%
14 Feb 2017 Livestock COW Short 22.16 24.13 -8.89%
10 Jul 2017 iShares Barclays US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Fund TIP Short 112.41 113.71 -1.16%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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