investors intelligence
Generating first rate investment advice since 1947
Sample Research


ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
14 October 2015

Market Overview


Equity ETFs are attempting to rally from their recent lows and reassert their long-term uptrends. Our medium-term indicators remain at low comfortable levels and thereby support the case for a multi-week rally from here in developed world equity ETFs. 

Plotted is the bulls divided by the bears in our Advisors Sentiment Survey. It is reversing up from an oversold condition as per the S&P 500 uptrend reassertion at the end of 2011.

We remain overweight U.S. equity funds. Today just one trade, a short in an emerging market currency.





This Week's Trades

  • Brazilian Real Fund (BZF) - opening a short

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.



Other ETF Highlights


  • S&P 500 (SPY) - buy
  • Technology (XLK) - buy reiterated
  • Dynamic Retail (PMR) - buy
  • Pacific ex-Japan (EPP) - buy
  • Brazil Index (EWZ) - sell
  • Silver (SLV) - sell
  • Copper (JJC) - sell
  • High Yield (HYG) - sell
  • Emerging Markets Bond (EMB) - sell reiterated





US Equity Indices


The S&P 500 (SPY) fund is consolidating just to the underside of its 200-day exponential moving average and also the price spike high from September. Near-term $200 needs to hold to avoid a return to the trading range between $187 and $200. A break higher, above the September high, would confirm a base and project a move back to the record high.

The P&F chart shows that the long-term uptrend still stands.



US Sector Indices


The Technology (XLK) fund has clawed its way back above its 200-day exponential moving average and also broken the September high. The uptrend off the end of September low needs to soon resume to avoid returning to the sideways action of that month. 



The Dynamic Retail (PMR) fund is also attempting to regain support from its 200-day exponential moving average and doing so would resume the primary uptrend. Momentum is not overbought and the relative ratio has been trending higher since June. 



Other Developed Indices


The Pacific ex-Japan (EPP) P&F price chart has reversed up this month from the $35 level, support going back to 2011. Potential for a return towards the top of the four year range at $50 in the month's ahead. 

A favorable risk-to-reward ratio for longs, placing a stoploss just under $35. 




Emerging Indices


The Brazil Index (EWZ) fund has encountered resistance from its 50-day exponential moving average.  Trading may be failing here to reassert the long-term downtrend. The MACD is also back to neutral, reflecting a complete oversold bounce. 

With the relative ratio also turning back down, we would be sellers here.






The Brazilian Real Fund (BZF) is likely resuming its long-term downtrend following a test of its 50-day exponential moving average a few sessions ago. The 14-day RSI is turning down following the oversold rally. 

A long-term underperformer versus the U.S. equity market, now presents a good entry point for fresh shorts. 

We shall open a short on the close today. The trade aims for new 52-week lows. We would look to exit should there be a break up through $14.






Silver (SLV) has run into resistance from its 200-day exponential moving average with the rally off the late August low. Momentum is near to overbought, so the price should struggle to go higher from here.

If long, we would be sellers now. The P&F price chart reflects the long-term downtrend, underway since the start of 2011. 





Copper (JJC) is struggling at its 50-day exponential moving average and may soon resume its long-term downtrend. The 14-day RSI is no longer oversold and that will allow fresh weakness. An underperformer since the end of 2010!





The High Yield (HYG) fund is another downside reassertion candidate as it fails at resistance from its 50-day exponential moving average. 

The 14-day RSI is rolling over at neutral just as it has done with prior dead-cat bounces over the past five months. 

The long-term relative ratio is weakening. Avoid. 



The Emerging Markets Bond (EMB) is falling away from resistance off its 100-day exponential moving average. Until there is a decisive break above that average, we would favor the short side. 

An underperformer over the past year. 



ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs


Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
29 Apr 2015 iShares DJ US Health Care Providers Fund IHF Long 130.785 127.14 -2.79%
29 Jul 2015 CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust FXB Long 153 149.57 -2.24%
27 Aug 2015 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 105.64 106.1 +0.44%
27 Aug 2015 SPDR Consumer Discretionary XLY Long 75.53 77.67 +2.83%
27 Aug 2015 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Long 64.29 67.34 +4.74%
27 Aug 2015 iShares Germany Index EWG Long 26.64 26 -2.40%
27 Aug 2015 United States Oil Fund USO Long 13.95 15.06 +7.96%
3 Sep 2015 iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology IBB Long 338.63 298.76 -11.77%
3 Sep 2015 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Long 39.91 41.44 +3.83%
9 Sep 2015 iShares GS Software Index Fund IGV Long 94.96 99.34 +4.61%
23 Sep 2015 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish UUP Long 25.12 24.66 -1.83%
30 Sep 2015 SPDR Sector Trst Health Care XLV Long 66.23 67.76 +2.31%
8 Oct 2015 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Long 44.17 43.6 -1.29%
8 Oct 2015 Oil Service HOLDRS OIH Long 30.75 30.75 0.00%
8 Oct 2015 iShares South Korea Index EWY Long 52.91 52.54 -0.70%

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
2 Jul 2014 Agriculture ETF DBA Short 27.47 21.51 +21.70%
11 Nov 2014 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY Short 84.29 80.97 +3.94%
29 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets Bond EMB Short 109.3 107.92 +1.26%
6 Aug 2015 US Investment Grade Crp LQD Short 115.47 116.54 -0.93%
19 Aug 2015 CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust FXA Short 73.58 72.66 +1.25%
27 Aug 2015 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY Short 80.24 80.97 -0.91%
27 Aug 2015 iShares 7-10 yr T-Bond Fund IEF Short 106.52 107.9 -1.30%
16 Sep 2015 iPATH S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN VXX Short 22.09 21 +4.93%
16 Sep 2015 iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund MUB Short 108.19 109.45 -1.16%
23 Sep 2015 Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF MOO Short 46.43 47.73 -2.80%
30 Sep 2015 Gold GLD Short 106.86 111.86 -4.68%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
Recommend a friend! Tell your friends to mention your name when subscribing to Investors Intelligence, and get a months free access to a service of your choice! For more information, email

Also available online at Unauthorized forwarding, copying or reproduction of this report will be treated as a breach of copyright. To subscribe, visit the website or contact Investors Intelligence on +44 (0)20 7352 4001 or email

This report has been produced and compiled by Investors Intelligence, a division of Stockcube Research Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It is distributed by Stockcube and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. From time to time Stockcube and any of its officers or employees may, to the extent permitted by law, have a position or otherwise be interested in any transactions, in any investments (including derivatives) directly or indirectly the subject of this report. Also Stockcube may from time to time perform other services (including acting as adviser or manager) for any company mentioned in this report. The value of securities can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. Derivatives in particular are high risk, high reward investment instruments and an investor may lose some or all of his/her original investment. If you make an investment in securities that are denominated in a currency other than that of GB Pounds you are warned that changes in rates of foreign exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment. The investments referred to herein may not be suitable investments for all persons accessing these pages. You should carefully consider whether all or any of these are suitable investments for you and if in any doubt consult an independent adviser. This report is prepared solely for the information of clients of Stockcube who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Stockcube nor any officer of Stockcube accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct and consequential loss arising from use of this report or its contents. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without the prior express consent of Stockcube.

Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.

Subscribe here:

  • Weekly update
  • Model Portfoilios
  • Online charts