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ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
28 March 2017
     

Market Overview

 

The overlay of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and our Short-term-composite shows the latter has unwound a lot further than the former. The SPY is not far off its high and with the indicator down to a comfortable level, the index fund should print new highs with ease should the market recover.

No new trades this week. We maintain our overweight equity funds stance.

 

 


 

This Week's Trades

  • None.

Note - Trades will be executed on today's close.

 


 

Other ETF Highlights

 

  • S&P 500 (SPY) - Buy
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - Buy Reiterated
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - Buy
  • Semiconductors (SMH) - Buy Reiterated
  • South Korea (EWY) - Buy
  • Germany (EWG) - Buy
  • India Index (INP) - Buy 
  • Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) - Buy
  • Silver (SLV) - Buy
  • 7-10 year T-Bond (IEF) - Sell
     

 


 

Analysis

 

US Equity Indices

 

The S&P 500 ETF recovered from an opening sell-off yesterday to close near flat, just above its 50-day exponential moving average. With the 14-day RSI close to oversold, the uptrend could reassert from here. Yesterday's low could be used as a tight stoploss.

 

The Russell 2000 fund is finding support at the bottom of its 4 month consolidation. With the MACD having unwound all the way to neutral, the uptrend is well positioned to reassert.

The P&F relative chart shows the fund to be a long-term outperformer.

 

 

US Sector Indices

 

The Consumer Discretionary ETF is finding support from its 50-day exponential moving average and the $86 level. The 14-day RSI is in an attractive position, across neutral. Expecting a reassertion from here to new highs.

 

 

The Semiconductors ETF outperformed yesterday, higher by 0.5%. Fresh decade price and relative highs imminent. We reiterate our buy advice.

 

 

Other Developed Indices

 

The South Korea fund has been strong on a price and relative basis since the start of the year. The price is trending towards the top of its long-term range at $67. 

A double-bottom is close to activating on the P&F relative chart and doing so should result in outperformance into yearend.

 

The Germany ETF is printing new 52-week price highs. With momentum not being overbought, that strength should continue.

The long-term rising channel off the March 2009 low is reasserting.

 

 

Emerging Indices

 

The India Index ETN has been strong since February last year. The move is heading towards the highs from 2015 around $78.

The P&F relative chart maintains its bounce off support from the 2013 low.

 

 

Currencies

 

The Japanese Yen Trust has established an uptrend off the December 2016 low. That move is now attempting to gain the 200-day exponential moving average as support. With momentum not yet overstretched, the rally should continue from here. The next major level to target is $96.

 

 

 

Commodities

 

The Silver fund popped 2% yesterday, resuming its rally off the December 2016 low. Only a little more strength is needed to reverse the P&F chart back to the upside and again pressure the 6 year downtrend. Clearing $20 would end the multi-year correction.

 

 

 

Bonds

 

The 7-10 year T-Bond fund is testing the top of its 4 month range at $106. Even if there is a break higher, activating a $2 base, we would continue to avoid longs given the poor long-term performance of the fund. The P&F relative chart exhibits a strong downtrend, trading at an all-time low.

 

MODEL PORTFOLIO

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
12 Jul 2016 ISHS Russell 2000 Index IWM Long 119.72 134.74 +12.55%
12 Jul 2016 iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund ITA Long 127.66 146.99 +15.14%
12 Jul 2016 Semiconductor HOLDRS SMH Long 59.36 79.49 +33.91%
19 Jul 2016 PowerShares QQQ QQQ Long 112.13 130.84 +16.69%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Materials XLB Long 48.81 51.77 +6.06%
19 Jul 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Technology XLK Long 45.21 52.84 +16.88%
19 Jul 2016 Base Metals DBB Long 13.79 16.26 +17.91%
26 Jul 2016 iShares Brazil Index EWZ Long 32.57 37.01 +13.63%
2 Aug 2016 iShares GS Semiconductor Index SOXX Long 102.48 136.08 +32.79%
30 Aug 2016 iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers Index Fund IAI Long 41.8277 50.04 +19.63%
6 Sep 2016 iShares GS Software Index Fund IGV Long 113.91 125.13 +9.85%
6 Sep 2016 iShares Japan Index EWJ Long 50.12 51.9 +3.55%
13 Sep 2016 DJ US Regional Banks Index Fund IAT Long 35.24 43.87 +24.49%
8 Nov 2016 iShares DJ Transportation Average IYT Long 149.74 160.76 +7.36%
8 Nov 2016 streetTRACKS KBW Bank ETF KBE Long 34.94 41.79 +19.61%
22 Nov 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Industrial XLI Long 61.91 64.3 +3.86%
29 Nov 2016 Diamond Trust- 1/100 DJIA DIA Long 191.19 205.23 +7.34%
6 Dec 2016 iShares Switzerland Index EWL Long 28.85 32.24 +11.75%
10 Jan 2017 SPDR Sector Trst Health Care XLV Long 71.5 74.49 +4.18%
28 Feb 2017 DJ US Pharmaceuticals Index Fund IHE Long 153.26 152.39 -0.57%
7 Mar 2017 SPDR Sector Trst Energy XLE Long 71.51 68.24 -4.57%
21 Mar 2017 iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund EZA Long 59.73 58.72 -1.69%

ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts

Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L
13 Sep 2016 iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund MUB Short 112.63 108.95 +3.27%
4 Oct 2016 SPDR Sector Trst Utilities XLU Short 47.29 51.69 -9.30%
14 Feb 2017 Livestock COW Short 22.16 22.4594 -1.35%
Model Portfolio Notes
Opening of positions – Positions are opened on the immediate closing price following the report.
 
Stops - Two flash crashes (2010, 2015) and occasional bad prices have forced us to drop strict stops. Positons will no longer be stopped out but we shall suggest a region as to where we MAY exit. 
 
Closures - With positions not being stopped out, we shall only exit positions via advice in the report. When we exit a trade, the next closing price is used. 
 
Allocation – Each trade is allocated 5% of the portfolio.
 
 
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