|ETF Global Opportunities
Weekly analysis on US stocks, sectors, commodities and global indices.
24 May 2016
Despite the recent pull-back by the S&P 500 Trust being shallow, indicators have unwound substantially. The overlay of the SPY and our short-term-composite illustrates that point.
The short-term-composite is firmly in oversold territory and turning up. There is more than enough upside room on the indicator to allow the SPY to extend to record highs from here.
We remain net long equity funds.
Note - charts/portfolio are up to date as far as yesterday's close (today's strength is yet to print)
This Week's Trades
Other ETF Highlights
- NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) - Buy reiterated
- S&P 500 (SPY) - Buy
- Biotechnology (IBB) - Buy reiterated
- Semiconductor (SMH) - Buy
- Software (IGV) - Buy
- Financial (XLF) - Buy reiterated
- United Kingdom (EWU) - Buy
- Brazil (EWZ) - Sell
- British Pound (FXB) - Watch to Buy
- Gold (GLD) - Sell
- Livestock (COW) - Sell reiterated
- 1-3 year T-Bond Fund (SHY) - Sell
US Equity Indices
The NASDAQ 100 ETF is today breaking above its 200-day exponential moving average following a 5 week consolidation beneath it. The MACD will be turning up from just under neutral.
The uptrend is reasserting and new 20016 price highs expected over the next few weeks.
The S&P 500 fund is up over 1% this afternoon and that will enable a breakout from the corrective channel off the mid-April high. That pull-back successfully tested support from the 200-day exponential moving average. Here too, upside resumption underway.
US Sector Indices
The Biotechnology Fund is higher by 2% this afternoon, pulling trading up from the bottom of its 4 month bottom attempt. The 14-day RSI has the slack to allow a test of the neckline of the bottom at $290. Clearing that level would activate the base, forecasting a move towards $340.
The P&F price and relative charts for the Semiconductor ETF have both reversed up the past two sessions. 2009 uptrends are likely resuming. A stoploss could be placed just beneath this month's low of $50.88.
The Software Index Fund is close to breaking out to new all-time price and relative highs. Strong uptrends. Entry suggested ahead of the move.
The Financial ETF is higher by 1.5% late afternoon and that will reassert the three month up channel. Support has been provided by the 200-day exponential moving average and the 14-RSI is attractively positioned just above neutral.
Other Developed Indices
The United Kingdom ETF is higher by over 2.5% this afternoon. That move will resume the up channel off its January low as well as test resistance from the 200-day exponential moving average. Momentum is not overbought. A break above the 200-day this week would be a strong buy signal.
The Brazil Fund reversed down on its P&F price chart yesterday. That move implies the long-term downtrend is reasserting.
The relative ratio, versus the U.S. equity market, remains in its long-term downtrend. Avoid.
The British Pound Sterling Trust is rallying 1% this afternoon. That will put the price at the neckline of its 5 month bottom attempt. Clearing that level and the 200-day exponential moving average would activate the bottom and raise a target towards $151. Sufficient slack on the 14-day RSI to allow that pop.
The Gold ETF is lower by 1.7% this afternoon and that will pull trading beneath the 50-day exponential moving average. A potential top is taking shape between $115 and $124.
Longs should be avoided given the underperformance, versus the S&P 500, since mid-February.
The Livestock Fund is breaking lower again following the end of April oversold bounce. New 52-week price and relative lows possible over the next few weeks.
The 1-3 year T-Bond Fund remains in a retreat off the top end of a yearlong range. The next downside level to watch is the March low of $84.55.
The relative ratio, versus the equity market, is reasserting its downtrend off the February peak. Underperformance to continue.
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Longs
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L|
|27 Aug 2015||PowerShares QQQ||QQQ||Long||105.64||106.33||+0.65%|
|3 Sep 2015||SPDR Sector Trst Technology||XLK||Long||39.91||42.65||+6.87%|
|3 Nov 2015||iShares Japan Index||EWJ||Long||12.4||11.57||-6.69%|
|22 Dec 2015||SPDR Consumer Staples||XLP||Long||50.55||52.21||+3.28%|
|30 Dec 2015||iShares DJ US Medical Devices Fund||IHI||Long||123.56||128.89||+4.31%|
|10 Feb 2016||Diamond Trust- 1/100 DJIA||DIA||Long||159.39||174.78||+9.66%|
|17 Feb 2016||PowerShares Aerospace & Defense||PPA||Long||32.89||36.48||+10.92%|
|2 Mar 2016||Market Vectors Russia ETF||RSX||Long||15.12||16.64||+10.05%|
|17 Mar 2016||SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF||XME||Long||20.73||21.16||+2.07%|
|17 Mar 2016||CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust||FXC||Long||76.3||75.33||-1.27%|
|17 Mar 2016||United States Oil Fund||USO||Long||10.55||11.66||+10.52%|
|22 Mar 2016||DJ US Pharmaceuticals Index Fund||IHE||Long||138.19||141.36||+2.29%|
|29 Mar 2016||SPDR Consumer Discretionary||XLY||Long||78.69||77.43||-1.60%|
|29 Mar 2016||iShares DJ Transportation Average||IYT||Long||142.47||137.26||-3.66%|
|5 Apr 2016||iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology||IBB||Long||269.64||266.03||-1.34%|
|5 Apr 2016||SPDR Sector Trst Health Care||XLV||Long||68.47||69.41||+1.37%|
|12 Apr 2016||SPDR Sector Trst Energy||XLE||Long||63.96||65.99||+3.17%|
|21 Apr 2016||SPDR Sector Trst Financial||XLF||Long||23.33||23.19||-0.60%|
|21 Apr 2016||SPDR Sector Trst Industrial||XLI||Long||56.27||54.93||-2.38%|
|21 Apr 2016||Base Metals||DBB||Long||12.97||12.27||-5.40%|
|26 Apr 2016||Sugar||SGG||Long||36.46||38.27||+4.96%|
|10 May 2016||iShares S&P Global Energy Index||IXC||Long||31.08||31||-0.26%|
ETF Trading (Long/Short) Shorts
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L|
|3 Feb 2016||Natural Gas||UNG||Short||7.55||6.65||+11.92%|
|3 Feb 2016||US 20+yrs||TLT||Short||127.95||130.44||-1.95%|
|5 Apr 2016||Livestock||COW||Short||23.54||23.12||+1.78%|
|26 Apr 2016||streetTRACKS SPDR Homebuilders||XHB||Short||34.83||32.98||+5.31%|
|17 May 2016||SPDR Sector Trst Utilities||XLU||Short||48.6108||47.86||+1.54%|
Copyright 2016 by Stockcube Research Ltd.