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Commodities Daily Hotline
15 January 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: CRB Index' fall slows but...


The CRB Index has been declining in a persistent manner ever since resistance was encountered at 313.271 in June last year.  The RSI was indicating an overbought condition back then.  This has languished at oversold levels over the last few months.

On Wednesday, a slight loss of momentum was noted for the Commodity Index.  However, this is not yet sufficient to remove pressure from the late-2008'early-2009 base area, which stretches down to 200.16.

The Energy sector makes up 39% of the CRB index' weighting.  Oils have been in a steep decline over recent months.  In fact, the 2nd Month Continuation chart for Crude bears a remarkable resemblance to the above.  Although a steadier tone was noted for yesterday, a more forceful up move is needed to reaffirm support from the floor of the historic base near 40.

Daily Comment:


The Natural Gas instrument has followed Tuesday's 5.3% gain with +9.9% for yesterday's session.  The 'bear trap' recovery from a new contract low, at 0.783, is heading for potential resistance at the 50-day moving average.  If bulls manage to pass that line, the next chart target is around the 200-day MA, which is situated near the long-term sideways region along 4 (partially shown).

In the Precious Metals sector, Palladium stands out for having reacted sharply to resistance near 820.  The fall through December support leads one to question the base theory; and leaves the 750 region as the next support area.  The 'Bear' P&F Breakout signal, automatically generated at 792, is noted.

In the Industrial Metals sector, Copper contracts have suffered another bout of selling.  In yesterday's report, it was pointed out that although acceleration is a trend-ending feature, it is hard to forecast the turning point.  In the out of hours session, the CMX issue shown here has traded at 257.85.  It is possible that the oversold fall is trying to reverse at Wednesday's low at 242.35.  The equivalent level for the LME instrument is 5353.25.

In Meats, the oversold fall by the Lean Hogs instrument shows a loss of momentum after a new contract low at 76.225.  However, while a further recovery is possible, one would point out the stiff-looking resistance in the 85 region.

In Grains, the decline by US-traded Wheat contracts started when the prior advance hit overbought levels in mid-December.  The pullback from that peak is now becoming oversold.  In the case of the Kansas City Wheat product shown here, the November low at 570.25 is under scrutiny.  Further chart support is noted at the earlier trough near 560-554.


Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
UNGNatural Gas16.68+11.6%
NG1Natural Gas NYME 1st Month Continuation3.233+9.9%
NGG5Natural Gas NYME (February 15)3.233+9.9%
NG2Natural Gas NYME (cont)3.208+9.4%
XB1Gasoline RBOB NYME 1st Month Continuation135.07+6.5%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3m5548-5.3%
HG2Copper CMX (cont)250.05-5.2%
HGH5Copper CMX (Mar 2015)250.55-5.2%
PAH5Palladium NYME (Mar 15)780.65-4.3%
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
5 Jan 2015 Corn CBT (March 15) C H5 Long 406 381 -6.16% 370
8 Jan 2015 Cocoa NYBOT (March 2015) CCH5 Long 2986 2992 +0.20% 2840
13 Jan 2015 Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015) MOZ5 Long 7.38 7.25 -1.76% 6.25
  • There are no changes today.


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFEOversold fall slows by the late-2008/early-2009 base area.223.276+1.6% 200.16270.013/242.602
CLG5Crude Oil NYME (February 15)Oversold decline slows.48.48+5.6% /69.63/59.27
XBG5Gasoline RBOB NYME (Feb15)Oversold fall pauses.135.07+6.5% 122.65?189.59/163.79
HOG5Heating Oil NYME (Feb 15)Extends the oversold decline to a new low where some intraday support arrives.165.52+1.4% /221.17/199.19
NGG5Natural Gas NYME (Feb 15)'Bear trap' recovery points to potential resistance at the 50-day MA.3.233+9.9% 0.7833.95
QZG5Coal (Feb 15)Extends the oversold fall to a new contract low.46.43-0.6% /55.04
GCG5Gold CMX (Feb 15)Rallies to the highs of the potential base.1234.5+0.0% 1141.7/1167.31298.4/1256.2
PAH5Palladium NYME (Mar 15)Finds stiff resistance near 820 to question the base theory.780.65-4.3% 733.45/748.15911.8/823
PLJ5Platinum NYME (April 15)Rallies from the yearend floor above the 50-day MA. Tests the Dec high.1239-0.7% 1176.31296.2/1257.7
SIH5Silver CMX (March 2015)Tests the highs of the potential base that has been forming above the dramatic 'Trough' KDR of 1 Dec from a new contract low.16.988-1.0% 14.15517.825/17.355
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mRenews the decline. RSI oversold again.1774-1.0% 1704.25/1754.752008/1879/1847
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mOversold fall accelerates (trend-ending feature).5548-5.3% 46856835.5/6532.5
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsExtends the decline to the 2012 low (1742). RSI oversold.1768-3.4% 1535/17422075/1895
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsExtends the decline into the mid-2013/early-2014 base. RSI low.14310-2.3% 13650/1416017200/15677
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsCounter rally from oversold still struggling near 20000.19375-0.8% 1834520620/20100
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsS-t fall gathers speed and becomes oversold.2035-2.2% 1937/2000?2331/2257.5
FCH5Feeder Cattle CME (March 2015)Retreats from resistance at the 50-day MA; near the Oct/early-Dec top to test support near the 200-day MA.210.1-0.4% 201.8/207.75337.8/224.475
LCG5Live Cattle CME (Feb 15)Retraces to support near the 200-day MA and the Dec low.155.75-1.1% 148.8/155.1172.75/166.975
LHJ5Lean Hogs CME (Apr 15)The oversold fall slows.78+2.0% /94.1/84.95
C H5Corn CBT (March 15)Tests Nov support.381-1.2% 330.5/371.5467/417
O H5Oats CBT (March 15)Extends the oversold fall to a new low.282.75-3.6% /344.75/320
IJG5Rapeseed LIFFE (February 15)Overbought rally pauses by the Feb-May 2014 top.355.25-0.5% 327.25/347.5370/363.5
S H5Soybeans CBT (March 15)Recovery yields to ranging beneath the 200-day MA. Falls to the pattern lows.1009.25+0.5% 920.75/9911089.75
SMH5Soybean Meal CBT (March 2015)Extends the range forming beneath the Nov high. Falls to the pattern lows.335.5+0.6% 292.1/332.4379.7
BOH5Soybean Oil CBT (March 2015)Potential base.32.82+0.9% 31.4135.39
W H5Wheat CBT (March 2015)Fall from the overbought Dec high is becoming oversold.537.75-1.9% 520.75/536677/603.5
QKK5Wheat LIFFE (May 2015)Uptrend flattens.130.45-2.4% 123.75/129.9150.25/148
CCH5Cocoa NYBOT (March 2015)Renews the recovery.2992+0.0% 2780/28883171
KCH5Coffee NYBOT (March 2015)Recovery from the oversold 'Trough' KDR of 5 Jan finds resistance near the 50 and 200-day MAs with a 'Peak' KDR.179.85+1.6% 143.25/160.1201.35/184.9
CTH5Cotton (March 2015)Eases to the Nov floor.58.98-1.9% 58.5363.82/62.84
LBH5Lumber CME (March 2015)Did not maintain the break under the June floor (315.5).315-0.1% 310.3?340.7/324.9
JOH5Orange Juice (March 2015)Remains confined beneath the Dec high.143.85+0.3% 125.55/139.1155/147
SBH5Sugar NYBOT (March 2015)Pauses the oversold downtrend.14.93+0.4% 14.0715.62/15.2

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