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Commodities Daily Hotline
11 July 2016                            
Chart of the day:

Crude Oil sits at a precarious level. A P&F sell signal was generated last week and trading is now digging in beneath the 50-day exponential moving average. Dropping through $44 would put the price under the 200-day and also confirm a top formation between $46 and $51. That top has a target down to $41.


Daily Comment:

Gold rejected a sell-off attempt on Friday and managed a new 52-week closing high on the session. Its ability to maintain the rally despite investors moving back into the equity markets is a show of strength. Buy on any weakness.



The Soybeans contract looks to have completed its correction off the early June high. Support is being provided in and around the 50-day exponential moving average. The 14-day RSI has reversed up from oversold. 5 month uptrend is attemping to resume.


Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
C N6Corn CBT (July 16)349.75+4.2%
C 1Corn CBT 1st Month Continuation349.75+4.2%
C 2Corn CBT (cont)355+3.9%
CT1Cotton 1st Month Continuation65.92+3.5%
S N6Soybeans CBT (July 16)1089.75+3.4%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
KO1Palm Oil 1st Mth Continuation2320-3.7%
RR1Rough Rice CBOT 1st Month Continuation10.69-2.6%
RR2Rough Rice CBOT 2nd Month Continuation10.625-2.6%
QS1Gas Oil IPE 1st Month Continuation407.25-2.6%
QS3Gas Oil IPE (cont)421-2.2%
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFEReasserts the uptrend after correcting from overbought.187.173+0.8% 176.857203.679/198.318
CLQ6Crude Oil NYME (August 16)Possibly reasserting the uptrend.45.41+0.6% 4452.28/50.54
XBQ6Gasoline RBOB NYME (August16)Hovers above the mid-Jun low (147.23). Potential H&S top.137.08+0.6% 144.71/147.23167.19/165.91
HOQ6Heating Oil NYME (August 16)Finds support near the 50 and 200-day MAs again. Reasserts the uptrend.141.23+0.1% 130.64/142.47166.62/158.76
NGQ6Natural Gas NYME (August 16)Overbought advance finds intraday resistance at 2.974.2.801+0.9% 2.605/2.6533.094
QZQ6Coal (August 16)Trades near the contract low.39.50.00% /45.3
GCQ6Gold CMX (Aug 16)Finds support near the 50-day MA with a 'Trough' KDR on 24 Jun. Jumps to a new contract high, where intraday resistance arrives. RSI high.1358.4-0.3% 1211.8/1252.81362.6
PAU6Palladium NYME (Sep 16)Breaks the 'Peak' KDR of 24 Jun (568), and s-t range resistance at the early-Jun high (571).617.1+0.8% /523.5/541.5634.65/612.6
PLN6Platinum NYME (July 16)Did not maintain the dip under early-Jun support (956.2). 'Bear trap' recovery to s-t range resistance (1022.2) follows.1097+0.5% 938.1/955.31094.5/1022.2
SIN6Silver CMX (July 2016)Renews the break over the May high (18.06). Trades over the Jan 2015 peak (18.485) during Wed. RSI overbought.20.058+1.3% 15.83/17.10521.945
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mReasserts the s-t rally to the late-Apr/early-May peak area.1663+1.5% 1531/15631686
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mRenews the recovery. Points towards the Mar/Apr ceiling.4710.5+0.5% 4483.55131
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsBreaks s-t range resistance (1768). Points towards the Apr high (1814.5).1817+0.1% 1626/16801895/1814.5
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsRenews the s-t rally to the May high (9700); near the 200-day MA.9880+1.3% 8245/877510785/9700
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsRecovery from oversold pauses near the Mar-May ceiling.17840+0.5% 15160/1542517651/17525
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsReasserts the advance after correcting from overbought.2142+2.1% 1826/19622117.5/2105.5
FCQ6Feeder Cattle CME (August 2016)Renews the 'bear trap' recovery from the oversold contract low. Probes the 50-day MA.143.45-0.1% 134.25156.425/152.2
LCQ6Live Cattle CME (Aug 16)Resumes the 'bear trap' recovery from the oversold contract low.112.225+0.4% 109.575120.675
LHN6Lean Hogs CME (Jul 16)Holds the correction from the overbought contract high.80.05-1.2% 78.52588.9
C N6Corn CBT (July 16)Finds resistance near the 50-day MA. Retests the May low (368).349.75+4.2% 351.25/368439.25/398.25
O N6Oats CBT (July 16)Recovery finds intraday resistance beneath the Apr high (224.75).228.25+0.3% 183.75/200.5224.75
IJQ6Rapeseed LIFFE (August 16)Reverses the oversold fall from the contract high.352.5+0.7% 336.5/350384.5
S N6Soybeans CBT (July 16)Correction from overbought reverses near 1100.1089.75+3.4% 1043.5/1099.251208.5
SMN6Soybean Meal CBT (July 2016)Correction from overbought reverses at the 50-day MA.378.7+2.4% 335.6/371.7432.5
BON6Soybean Oil CBT (July 2016)Trades under the Apr low (70.79) during Wed. Points to the Mar floor (30.33).30.27+1.8% 29.47/30.3333.84/33.33
W N6Wheat CBT (July 2016)Falls to a new contract low. RSI oversold.420.75+2.1% /524/482.5
QKX6Wheat LIFFE (November 2016)Finds resistance at the mid-Jun high (125).122.25+0.8% 113.5/115126.7/125
CCN6Cocoa NYBOT (July 2016)Finds stiff resistance at the Apr/May ceiling (3240).3136-0.4% 2852/29823406/3254/3240
KCN6Coffee NYBOT (July 2016)Rallies to s-t range resistance at the overbought early-June high (145).142.75+1.6% 118.9/132149.6/145
CTN6Cotton (July 2016)Develops support near the 50 and 200-day MAs.63.67-0.2% 60.25/62.368.25/67.59
LBN6Lumber CME (July 2016)Ranging beneath the overbought May high. Potential top extension.312.10.00% 276.6331.2
JON6Orange Juice (July 2016)Renews the advance to a new contract high after a s-t ranging phase. RSI overbought again.188.95+1.2% 139.95/160.1/
SBN6Sugar NYBOT (July 2016)Advances to a new contract high. RSI overbought again.20.15-3.2% 15.55/18.41/

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