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Commodities Daily Hotline
16 September 2014                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Aluminium breaks uptrend

 

Aluminium has traded below the 50-day moving average for the first time since May.  Having broken the short-term uptrend, the support at the July/August lows, at 1967/1983, is under scrutiny.  Should that floor area crumble, the next target will be around the 1900 region; near the 200-day moving average.

Aluminium wasn't the only Industrial Metal to deteriorate on Monday.  Lead renewed its oversold decline towards the May/June floor at 2070.  Should that yield, prices could ease towards the March/April lows at 2013.25/2032.

 

Daily Comment:

 

The Crude instrument appears to be developing support above the early-2014 lows.  Over the last few sessions, one has observed intraday support arriving around 90.50.  Nonetheless, a clearance of resistance at 96 would be needed to really improve the aspect of this pattern.

Also in the Energy sector, support at the late-July/September range floor has held up to the latest challenge for Natural Gas.  The short-term pattern may well turn out to be a base under construction, though a sustained break over the 50-day moving average would be required to add weight to that theory.

In Softs, Cotton has recorded a 3.2% loss for Monday's trading.  The price has dipped back under the shorter-term MA; and August high, in what one hopes (since a long trade was recently opened in the item) will be a base extension phase.  Of course, the fall beneath last month's high does present a 'bull trap' risk in hte meantime, towards the last reaction low at 63.93. 

The NYBOT Sugar contract has slumped to another low.  The profitable stop on the short is lowered again, to 14.

In contrast, the LIFFE White Sugar issue has registered a 3.4% gain, as it launches a counter move from oversold.  It will be interesting to see whether old support around 420 will convert into a barrier.

The UK Cocoa instrument has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal at 2000.  Earlier in the month, a long trade was opened after support became apparent near the 50-day MA with a 'Trough' Key Day Reversal (plotted on 9 September).

In Grains, there is a revival in bullish interest in the Soybean Oil product.  After languishing in oversold territory and near the contract lows for about a month, the price has launched a recovery, and is currently testing late-August resistance at 33.71.

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
QWV4Sugar White LIFFE (October 2014)402.6+3.4%
QW3Sugar White LIFFE (cont)442.8+3.0%
LB2Lumber CME (cont)346+2.8%
SOYOSoybean Oil4.5815+2.2%
BO1Soybean Oil CBT 1st Month Continuation33.27+2.2%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
CT1Cotton 1st Month Continuation68.18-3.4%
BALCotton44.17-3.2%
CTZ4Cotton (December 2014)65.84-3.2%
CT2Cotton (cont)65.84-3.2%
LB1Lumber CME 1st Month Continuation338.6-2.7%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Commodities Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
19 May 2014 Nickel LME 3 Months LMNIDS03 Long 20100 18050 -10.20% 17400
9 Sep 2014 Cocoa LIFFE (December 2014) QCZ4 Long 1995 2000 +0.25% 1925
11 Sep 2014 Cotton (December 2014) CTZ4 Long 67.72 65.84 -2.78% 63
Commodities Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
21 Aug 2014 Gold CMX (Oct 14) GCV4 Short 1284 1234.1 +3.89% 1239
3 Sep 2014 Corn CBT (December 14) C Z4 Short 352 343 +2.56% 344
3 Sep 2014 Wheat CBT (December 2014) W Z4 Short 549 500.75 +8.79% 505
4 Sep 2014 Sugar NYBOT (October 2014) SBV4 Short 15.45 13.67 +11.52% 14
5 Sep 2014 Lumber CME (November 2014) LBX4 Short 338 338.6 -0.18% 356
11 Sep 2014 Soybean Meal CBT (December 2014) SMZ4 Short 329.2 327 +0.67% 370
  • Profitable stops are lowered on short Gold, Corn, Wheat and Sugar.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFEExtends the downtrend from this year's earlier top. Intraday support is noted at 280.217 RSI oversold.281.841-0.0% 279.392300.384/292.763
CLV4Crude Oil NYME (October 14)Potentially developing support above the early-2014 lows.92.92+0.7% 88.7/90.4397.75/96
XBV4Gasoline RBOB NYME (Oct14)Downtrend resistance is near the 50 and 200-day MAs. Intraday support is noted at 249.5.253.08+0.5% 246.46266.34/263.47
HOV4Heating Oil NYME (Oct 14)Holds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.273.96-0.0% 259.87/272.13?292.75/289.05
NGV4Natural Gas NYME (Oct 14)Possibly basing between resistance at the 50-day MA and the late-Jul/Sept range floor.3.931+1.9% 3.589/3.744.164/4.101
QZZ4Coal (Dec 14)Oversold fall shows a minor loss of momentum.55.93+0.1% /62/60.4/60.02
GCV4Gold CMX (Oct 14)Extends the oversold decline towards the late-2013 low. However, some intraday support arrives at 1225.3.1234.1+0.3% 11881325.4/1296.4
PAZ4Palladium NYME (Dec 14)S-t fall finds intraday support at 822; near the June floor; and 200-day MA.836.9+0.1% 797.6/809.25913/896.95
PLV4Platinum NYME (October 14)Holds the oversold fall.1363.5-0.5% 1324.6/1356.3?1488.5/1431.3
SIZ4Silver CMX (December 2014)Extends the oversold downtrend. Dips under the 2013 floor (18.5) during Fri.18.62+0.1% 15.8/17.97921.67/19.95
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mBreaks uptrend support at the 50-day MA.1991-1.9% 1904.25/19672184/2119.5
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mRetreats from sideways trading near 7200. However, intraday support arrives at 6734.6820-0.3% 6614.75/68217220/7108.75
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsRenews the oversold s-t fall towards the May/June floor.2097.5-1.2% 2032/20702279.15/2129.75
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsFalls to m-t range support at the June floor. Potential top.18050-1.9% 15695/1770021625/20495/19990
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsOversold fall reverses.21100-0.8% 18809/2087523849/23070
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsFinds resistance at the July high. Breaks support by the 50-day MA and Aug low adding weight to the top theory.2249-1.2% 21732539.5/2416
FCV4Feeder Cattle CME (October 2014)Overbought rally slows after a new contract high.225.85-0.0% 194.025/205.7229.825
LCV4Live Cattle CME (Oct 14)Unwinds from overbought. Failed break above the Jul high (bull trap).156.35+0.0% 140.55/144.225161.75
LHV4Lean Hogs CME (Oct 14)S-t rally towards the Jul peak area slows.106.075+0.4% 90.45/102.7118.35/106.15
C Z4Corn CBT (December 14)Oversold decline slows slightly near the contract low.343+1.3% /395.75/381/360?
O Z4Oats CBT (December 14)Ranging beneath resistance at the highs of the broad trading band.354.5+1.8% 311.5/336.75379.25/363.75/361.75
IJX4Rapeseed LIFFE (November 14)Ranging below resistance at the 50-day MA and 'Peak' KDR of 29 Aug.323.5+0.6% 300.5/318359.75/335.5
S X4Soybeans CBT (November 14)Oversold decline shows a loss of momentum.989.5+0.4% /1118.75/1089.25
SMZ4Soybean Meal CBT (December 2014)Breaks s-t range support near the l-t sideways area around 340.327-0.3% 309.7/318.5398.3/366.6
BOZ4Soybean Oil CBT (December 2014)Recovers from oversold.33.47+2.1% 31.5237.36/33.71
W Z4Wheat CBT (December 2014)Falls from resistance at the 50-day MA to a new contract low. RSI oversold.500.75-0.3% /591/579.25
QKX4Wheat LIFFE (November 2014)Extends the downtrend to a new contract low. RSI oversold.112-0.4% /124/120
CCZ4Cocoa NYBOT (December 2014)Oversold fall slows on the approach to the 200-day MA.3057+0.1% 28743300/3087
KCZ4Coffee NYBOT (December 2014)This year's large band looks like a top.182.2-1.3% 163.1222.6/211.1
CTZ4Cotton (December 2014)Drops back into the s-t base.65.84-3.2% 62.02/63.9378.74/69.14/68.48
LBX4Lumber CME (November 2014)Pauses the 'bull trap' reaction.338.6+0.6% 298/318.2354.3
JOX4Orange Juice (November 2014)Potential base.144.8-1.1% 141.35155.95
SBV4Sugar NYBOT (October 2014)Oversold decline makes a new contract low.13.67-0.8% /17.44/16.05


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