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Commodities Daily Hotline
17 June 2016                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Crude currently steadying...


At the time of writing, the Crude instrument is changing hands at 47.34 in the out of hours session.  This means that prices are steadying near potential support from both the long and short-term Moving Averages.  In the event that the correction from the early-June overbought high continues, next chart support is at the May low at 44.

Daily Comment:


Gold was the subject of yesterday's Chart of the Day section, as the price was breaking up to a new contract high.  Intraday resistance arrived at that level, 1318.9, leading to a failed break over the May high at 1308 and January 2015 peak at 1308.2.  The yellow is currently trading at 1287.4 in the pre-session, adding to fears for a 'bull trap' reaction; especially as the RSI is near overbought levels.

One notes that the Spot Silver contract has plotted a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal from 17.865.  The bearish feature is drawn close to the April barrier at 18.0162.  A leap past that resistance would be required to remove risk of a further retracement of the prior rally from the 200-day Moving Average near 16.

In the Industrial Metals sector, the Zinc instrument has produced a bearish P&F Breakout signal on the move through 2015 on the automated scanner.  This Candlestick chart shows the price correcting from an overbought position, towards potential support starting near the 50-day MA, around 1900.

In the Softs sector, the Cocoa contract was priced at 3125 in pre-hours trading a short time ago.  Hence, much of yesterday's sharp pullback has been clawed back, after support was encountered around the 3000 area.  Bulls will aim for the April/May ceiling at 3240, if they can manage to pass the recent high at 3174 that is.

In Meats, the Feeder Cattle issue fell to a new contract low at 136.9 during Thursday's session.  A bounce did occur from that level, taking the price back over the April floor (138.1).  While this could augur potential for an additional 'bear trap' recovery, a break over the resistance near the 50 and 200-day MAs would be needed to reinstate the base theory.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
JON6Orange Juice (July 2016)166.05+2.2%
JO1Orange Juice 1st Month Continuation166.05+2.2%
JO2Orange Juice (cont)166.9+2.2%
CT2Cotton (cont)65.38+1.6%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
QS1Gas Oil IPE 1st Month Continuation423.5-4.0%
QS3Gas Oil IPE (cont)430.25-3.9%
HEATHeating Oil9.6762-3.7%
CL1Crude Oil NYME 1st Month Continuation46.21-3.7%
HO2Heating Oil NYME (cont)143.07-3.7%
The Commodities Model Portfolio
No trades found.
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFECorrects from overbought.188.894-1.5% 171.585/176.857203.679/198.318
CLQ6Crude Oil NYME (August 16)Corrects from overbought and the early-Nov barrier (52.31). Probes potential support at the 50 and 200-day MAs.46.74-3.6% 40.29/4453.7/52.31/52.28
XBQ6Gasoline RBOB NYME (August16)Extends the s-t fall towards the May low.147.85-2.4% 141.2/144.71167.19/165.91
HOQ6Heating Oil NYME (August 16)Corrects from overbought. Probes potential support at the 50-day MA.143.07-3.7% 130.64166.62/158.76
NGQ6Natural Gas NYME (August 16)Overbought rally slows.2.627-0.9% 2.1572.836
QZQ6Coal (August 16)Trades near the contract low.39.50.00% /45.3
GCQ6Gold CMX (Aug 16)Finds intraday resistance at the new contract high, 1318.9. Failed break over the May high (1308) and Jan 2015 peak (1308.2). RSI high.1298.4+0.8% 1193.2/1211.81318.9
PAU6Palladium NYME (Sep 16)Retraces the rebound from oversold after finding resistance near the 50-day MA.534.95+0.5% 482.35/523.5612.6/571
PLN6Platinum NYME (July 16)Retraces the early-Jun bounce from oversold.978.3+0.4% 938.11094.5/1022.2
SIN6Silver CMX (July 2016)Rallies to the May high. RSI high.17.607+0.6% 14.83/15.8318.485/18.06
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mS-t rally pauses near the late-Apr/early-May peak area.1604-1.4% 1531/15631686
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mRetraces the very small recovery. Top heavy.4535-2.3% 4318/4430/4483.55356/5131
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsRetraces the rally from the May floor.1704+0.4% 1588/16261814.5/1768
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsS-t rally towards the May high; near the 200-day MA, slows again.8870-1.9% 7550/824510785/9700/9145
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsRecovery from oversold slows near the Mar-May ceiling.17005+0.2% 15160/1542517651/17525
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsCorrects from overbought.1989-2.4% 1715/18262117.5/2105.5
FCQ6Feeder Cattle CME (August 2016)Finds intraday support at the latest contract low, 136.9. Did not maintain the break under the Apr low (138.1). Potential 'bear trap'.139.625-0.4% 136.9?156.425/152.2
LCQ6Live Cattle CME (Aug 16)Retreats from the May high and 200-day MA towards the late-Apr floor, also the contract low.113.35-0.2% 110.925125.35/120.675
LHN6Lean Hogs CME (Jul 16)Overbought rally pauses after a new contract high.87.075+0.3% 78.525/85.07588.9
C N6Corn CBT (July 16)Overbought rally slows by the early-Jun high (439.25).425.25-0.9% 385.5/420471.25/439.25
O N6Oats CBT (July 16)Pauses the recovery towards the Apr high (224.75); near the 200-day MA.204.50.00% 183.75224.75
IJQ6Rapeseed LIFFE (August 16)Sharply corrects from the overbought contract high. Approaches prior support near the 200-day MA.364.25-2.1% 355.5384.5
S N6Soybeans CBT (July 16)Corrects from overbought.1134.5-1.9% 1008.5/1043.51208.5
SMN6Soybean Meal CBT (July 2016)Overbought advance has paused.397.7-2.3% 335.6/380.1432.5
BON6Soybean Oil CBT (July 2016)Retraces the counter move from oversold.31.16-2.5% 29.47/30.3333.84/33.33
W N6Wheat CBT (July 2016)Corrects from overbought. Failed break over the Apr high (518.5). 'Bull trap' reaction follows.472.5-1.0% 449.5534.25/524
QKX6Wheat LIFFE (November 2016)Corrects from overbought. Failed break over the Apr high. 'Bull trap' reaction follows.120-1.3% 113.5/115.5126.7/125
CCN6Cocoa NYBOT (July 2016)Recovery from oversold finds stiff resistance beneath the Apr/May ceiling.3059-3.2% 2746/28523240/3174
KCN6Coffee NYBOT (July 2016)Volatile trading beneath the overbought early-June high.139.5+0.9% 115.35/118.9149.6/145
CTN6Cotton (July 2016)Corrects from overbought and the Jul 2015 ceiling (67.59). Probes potential support near the 50 and 200-day MAs.63.3+1.1% 59.12/60.2567.59
LBN6Lumber CME (July 2016)Ranging beneath the overbought May high. Potential top extension.301.8+1.3% 276.6331.2
JON6Orange Juice (July 2016)Surging and overbought rally pauses.166.05+2.2% 124/139.95172.5
SBN6Sugar NYBOT (July 2016)Overbought advance trades over the 2014 prior contract high (19.98) during Thur.19.68-0.4% 15.55/19.01?/

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