|Commodities Daily Hotline
12 November 2015 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
In the Meats sector, the Lean Hogs instrument's decline from the October ceiling at 68.825 was steep; and the recently low level of the RSI indicates that it had become very oversold. A rebound from a new contract low, at 52.80 has occurred. A long trade is opened in expectation of a further recovery over the short term. The stop is placed at 51 for the time being.
Also in the Meats sector, the Cattle issues have also bounced from the oversold contract lows, at 127.425 for the Live instrument shown here and 160.775 for the Feeder product. There is now the possibility of some further 'bear trap' recovery over the near term following the failed breaks under last month's lows.
In Grains, the Oats contract has recorded a 3.6% gain as it jumps up to the highs of the short-term range at 240. This is also a sideways area running across the page. We watch to buy in the event of a breakout, as a base formation would be in place.
A long trade is opened in Soft commodity LIFFE Cocoa following the move over the September high at 2256 (see yesterday's hotline), which has taken prices into new high ground. The stoploss is placed at 2120 for now.
In the Industrial Metals grouping, Lead and Zinc have encountered intraday support at 1582 and 1553.5, respectively, as they rebounded from oversold levels on Wednesday. Given the failed breaks under the prior lows, there is a chance of an additional 'bear trap' move upwards. We remain long Zinc.
In the Precious Metals sector, Platinum has extended its short-term decline past the early-October floor at 893.4. This takes prices to a new contract lows. We would like to point out, though, that the RSI is in oversold territory. This increases the likelihood of a counter move before long.
In Energies, the Heating Oil instrument has continued to retrace the small rally after a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal was drawn on 4 November at 158.16. A clearance of that barrier is now required to remove pressure from the August-October floor at 142.71; and revive the base theory.
|LHZ5||Lean Hogs CME (LH Dec 2015)||56.175||+4.9%|
|O Z5||Oats CBT (December 15)||234.75||+3.6%|
|O 1||Oats CBT 1st Month Continuation||234.75||+3.6%|
|LH1||Lean Hogs CME 1st Month Continuation||55.875||+3.5%|
|LH2||Lean Hogs CME (cont)||57.075||+3.5%|
|PAZ5||Palladium NYME (Dec 15)||577||-3.5%|
|PA1||Palladium NYME 1st Month Continuation||577||-3.5%|
|PA2||Palladium NYME (cont)||577.5||-3.5%|
|COZ5||Crude Oil IPE (December 2015)||45.81||-3.4%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|5 Oct 2015||Soybean Oil CBT (December 2015)||BOZ5||Long||28.3||27.18||-3.96%||26.75|
|9 Oct 2015||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||LMZSDS03||Long||1836||1623||-11.60%||1550|
|14 Oct 2015||Silver CMX (December 2015)||SIZ5||Long||16.117||14.263||-11.50%||1415|
|4 Nov 2015||Wheat MATIF (December 2015)||CAZ5||Long||184.5||181.5||-1.63%||171.5|
|10 Nov 2015||Sugar NYBOT (March 2016)||SBH6||Long||14.71||14.69||-0.14%||13.45|
|11 Nov 2015||Lean Hogs CME (LH Dec 2015)||LHZ5||Long||56.175||56.175||0.00%||51|
|11 Nov 2015||Cocoa LIFFE (December 2015)||QCZ5||Long||2256||2260||+0.18%||2120|
- Longs are opened in Hogs (Chart of the Day) and Cocoa.
- We watch to buy Oats.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Falls from the 'Peak' KDR of 4 Nov out of the s-t range. Points to the Aug low. Questions base theory.||188.348||-0.6%||185.132||203.679/198.318|
|CLZ5||Crude Oil NYME (December 15)||Retraces the small 'Bear trap' rally. Tests Oct support (42.58). Questions base theory.||42.93||-2.9%||39.22/42.58||51.42/48.36|
|XBZ5||Gasoline RBOB NYME (December15)||Failed break over the s-t range resistance (bull trap). Potential base extension.||132.94||-2.4%||117.56/126.2||164.19/147.14|
|HOZ5||Heating Oil NYME (December 15)||Small rally from the Aug floor is capped by a 'Peak' KDR on 4 Nov. Drifts back to test the Aug-Oct floor. Base theory under scrutiny.||144.77||-2.6%||142.71||166.43/158.16|
|NGZ5||Natural Gas NYME (December 15)||Counter move from the oversold contract low struggles near 2.4.||2.263||-2.5%||2.188||2.875/2.78|
|QZZ5||Coal (December 15)||Remains penned in by the 50-day MA. Probes the Jun floor.||41.78||-0.2%||41.75||42.98|
|GCZ5||Gold CMX (Dec 15)||Oversold s-t fall tests the Jul/Aug floor.||1084.9||-0.3%||1073.7||1207.3/1191.7|
|PAZ5||Palladium NYME (Dec 15)||Extends the oversold s-t decline from the Oct high.||577||-3.5%||519.2/568||800/724.95|
|PLF6||Platinum NYME (January 16)||Extends the oversold fall past the early-Oct contract low (893.4).||883.1||-1.8%||/||1095.8/1039|
|SIZ5||Silver CMX (December 2015)||Failed break over the July/early-Oct band. 'Bull trap' reaction continues towards the Aug low. RSI oversold.||14.263||-0.6%||13.95||17.85/16.51|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Oversold fall towards the 2009 lows has reversed.||1518||+0.7%||1279/1383/1460||1669/1664.75|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Falls to the s-t range lows. Questions base theory. RSI low.||4943||+0.4%||4710/4855||5722.5/5440.5|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Falls to intraday support at 1582. Failed break under the early-Oct low (1608). Potential 'bear trap'. RSI low.||1620||-0.9%||1535||1881/1832|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Oversold s-t fall shows a slight loss of momentum.||9660||+1.6%||8850/9215||11980/11275/10785|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||'Trough' KDR of 10 Nov reverses the oversold fall from the m-t range/base highs; and 200-day MA. 'Bear trap' under the Sept low (14560) within the pattern.||14825||+0.7%||13365/14450||17651/16600|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Oversold fall finds intraday support at 1553.5. Failed break under the Sept floor (1601.5). Potential 'bear trap'.||1623||+1.0%||1432/1440||2117.5/1905.5/1881.5|
|FCF6||Feeder Cattle CME (January 2016)||Bounces from the oversold contract low. Potential failed break under the early-Oct low (164.05)||166.075||+2.8%||160.775||192.275/187.5|
|LCZ5||Live Cattle CME (Dec 15)||Rebound from oversold. Failed break under the early-Oct floor (128.1). Potential 'bear trap'.||131.325||+2.3%||127.425||146.725/144.725|
|LHZ5||Lean Hogs CME (Dec 15)||Rebounds from the oversold contract low.||56.175||+4.9%||52.8||70.8/68.725|
|C Z5||Corn CBT (December 15)||Small bounce from the new contract low. Failed break under the Aug low (357.5). Potential 'bear trap'. Revives base theory.||362.25||+0.9%||356?||402/387.5|
|O Z5||Oats CBT (December 15)||Jumps up to the highs of the s-t range/base; at the sideways area along 240.||234.75||+3.6%||210||253/240|
|IJG6||Rapeseed LIFFE (February 16)||Pauses the rally towards the Aug high (387.5).||375.75||+0.3%||340.25/356||397/387.5|
|S F6||Soybeans CBT (January 16)||Holds the s-t fall near the contract low.||860.75||+0.6%||/||923.5|
|SMZ5||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2015)||Retreat from sideways resistance near 320; and the 200-day MA, shows a loss of momentum on the way to the June floor.||294||+0.6%||286||344/321|
|BOZ5||Soybean Oil CBT (December 2015)||Failed break over the small late-Aug/early-Oct base. 'Bull trap' reaction follows.||27.18||-0.3%||25.7||31.14/29.48|
|W Z5||Wheat CBT (December 2015)||Continues to find resistance at the Aug-Oct highs; near the 200-day MA.||494.75||+0.8%||463/480||623.75/533.25|
|QKK6||Wheat LIFFE (May 2016)||Easier within the s-t range (base?).||120.25||-0.2%||117.15||127.6|
|CCZ5||Cocoa NYBOT (December 2015)||Finds support at the 50-day MA. Reverses up to the highs of the m-t trading band. Questions top theory.||3307||+1.2%||2989/3187||3375/3341|
|KCZ5||Coffee NYBOT (December 2015)||Renews the s-t decline to the Sept floor.||116.8||+0.4%||14.55||137.6/122.35|
|CTZ5||Cotton (December 2015)||Drops out of the s-t range forming beneath resistance at the 200-day MA, which was confirmed with a 'Peak' KDR on 22 Oct.||62.18||+0.4%||59.78/60.97||67/64.69|
|LBF6||Lumber CME (January 2016)||Reverses the s-t fall. Points back towards the Oct high.||252.2||+1.3%||218/240.3||267|
|JOF6||Orange Juice (January 2016)||Extends the overbought advance to intraday resistance at 159.05||153.65||+3.1%||105.05/128.45||164.1/162.75|
|SBH6||Sugar NYBOT (March 2016)||Reverses the correction from overbought. Reaffirms support near the 50 and 200-day MAs.||14.69||-0.1%||11.28/13.69||16.64/15.53|
Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.