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Commodities Daily Hotline
17 August 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: OJ builds further support

 

The Orange Juice instrument is ranging this month after the rally from the medium-term base became overbought.  This consolidation phase is likely to be resolved to the upside and we watch to buy on a break over the early-August high at 134.5.  The initial target is 140, with the possibility of a retest of the January high at 146.65 after that.

Daily Comment:

 

Also in the Softs sector, Cotton's surging recovery from a new contract low is fast approaching prior resistance near 68.  Given the upward dynamic from the new floor at 61.2, one would expect bulls to ultimately push higher.  We watch events with a view to purchasing at some point.

In Grains, Corn has failed to maintain the break under the October-June floor.  A drop beneath the new low at 357.5 would be required to offset scope for an additional 'bear trap' recovery towards resistance at the 50 and 200-day MAs near 400. 

US Wheat issues have also steadied in recent sessions.  The Kansas City Wheat instrument shown here has bounced from the recent oversold contract low towards initial resistance at 511.25.

On the other hand, the Rapeseed chart shows the price extending the short-term downtrend.  That said, there is potential support nearby from former resistance at the March/April highs at 367; near the 200-day MA.

In the Industrial Metals sector, Zinc has paused its decline, which had become oversold.  Also, support has been encountered at 1730, which is near the 2011 floor at 1718.5.  A breach of that platform would be needed to offset scope for some further recovery.

The CRB Index has dipped under 2008 support near 200.  The RSI remains close to oversold levels, so a counter move upwards is possible over the short term.  This 15-year chart displays next important support to be at the January 2002 floor at 143.97.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 Months15450+3.0%
TINMTin25.765+2.4%
HOGSLean Hogs0.718+2.4%
WEATWheat1.013+1.8%
SBV5Sugar NYBOT (October 2015)10.68+1.8%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
LH1Lean Hogs CME 1st Month Continuation65.325-17.0%
S 1Soybeans CBT 1st Month Continuation925.25-6.8%
SM1Soybean Meal CBT 1st Month Continuation325.2-5.5%
LH2Lean Hogs CME (cont)61.95-4.8%
SM2Soybean Meal CBT (cont)317-4.2%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
  • We watch to buy Cotton and OJ (Chart of the Day).
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFERenews the decline towards important support at the Jan 2002 floor (143.97).197.969+0.1% 143.97/174.35/194.4206.578/202.452
CLU5Crude Oil NYME (September 15)new lows42.5+0.6% /64.45/54.35
XBU5Gasoline RBOB NYME (September15)Retraces the recent rally from oversold.168.69-1.6% 160.48208.66/177.25
HOU5Heating Oil NYME (September 15)holds at recent lows155.79-0.7% /207.97/177.64
NGU5Natural Gas NYME (September 15)Ranging above the Apr-Jun floor in potential base extension phase.2.801+0.5% 2.5893.163
QZU5Coal (September 15)Holds at 50-day MA.42.880.00% 41.0351.6
GCV5Gold CMX (Oct 15)Rally from the oversold contract low slows.1112.4-0.3% 1072.81205.5
PAU5Palladium NYME (Sep 15)attempts to rally from recent lows617.5+0.3% 595667.6/641.5
PLV5Platinum NYME (October 15)begins to correct from recent lows994-0.1% 946.31097.2/1041.4
SIU5Silver CMX (September 2015)Counter move from oversold stalls.15.213-1.2% 14.3315.9/15.585
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mHolds the decline towards the important 2009 floor (1279).1580.5+0.4% 1279/1350/13851669/1625
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mHolds the downtrend.5165-0.4% 4710/5000?5722.5/5398
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsFinds support at 1,7001750+0.5% 1535/1676.52009/1881
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsHolds the downtrend.10600+1.4% 885011980/11275
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsPossibly consolidating the July recovery.15450+3.0% 13365/1460016600
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsPauses the oversold fall. Finds support near the Oct 2011 floor (1718.5).1829-0.1% 1718.5/17302191/2117.5
FCU5Feeder Cattle CME (September 2015)rallies into short term downtrend at 212209.525-0.4% 196.025/205.15219.3/214.975
LCV5Live Cattle CME (Oct 15)encounters 50/200-day resistance146.85-0.7% 141.275156.15
LHV5Lean Hogs CME (Oct 15)Potential base extension.65.325+0.4% 59.4574.45/67.7
C Z5Corn CBT (December 15)'Bear trap' recovery follows failed break under the Oct-June floor.375.5+0.1% 357.5402
O Z5Oats CBT (December 15)Ranging near the oversold Jul low.239.50.00% 233.5283.5/253
IJX5Rapeseed LIFFE (November 15)S-t downtrend forms.371.25-1.1% 329.5397.5/387.5
S X5Soybeans CBT (November 15)Dives to the June floor, which holds.916.5-1.1% 895.751045/996.5
SMZ5Soybean Meal CBT (December 2015)Crashes out of the s-t top.314.2-1.8% 286357.7/344
BOZ5Soybean Oil CBT (December 2015)Fall becomes oversold.29.4+0.3% /32.73/31.14
W U5Wheat CBT (September 2015)Fall from the 50-day MA reverses, finding support near the contract lows.506.5+0.6% 469.25618/530
QKX5Wheat LIFFE (November 2015)reverses rally from may lows117.85-0.3% 120.75/122?136.5/125.5
CCU5Cocoa NYBOT (September 2015)tests support at its 200-day MA3039-0.1% 30463386
KCU5Coffee NYBOT (September 2015)breaks its 50-day MA137.5+0.3% /137.8/132.5
CTZ5Cotton (December 2015)Surging recovery from the bottom of the range.65.95+0.2% 61.268.11
LBU5Lumber CME (September 2015)Oversold retreat from resistance at the 200-day MA slows.252.7-1.3% 241.8305.5/275
JOU5Orange Juice (September 2015)Overbought rally yields to ranging.132.05+0.8% 108.95/115.8140.05/134.5
SBV5Sugar NYBOT (October 2015)Oversold fall shows a minor loss of momentum.10.68+1.8% /13.9/12.8


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