|Commodities Daily Hotline
21 April 2015 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
In the Energy sector, the Natural Gas instrument has posted a 3.8% loss. While the Oil contracts have recently launched recovery rallies, with Crude even breaking above a short-term base, Natural Gas has reasserted the downtrend. The price points to the mid-April, and contract, low at 2.521. A sustained break over the 50-day moving average is needed to interrupt the downward tendency. That line is currently located near 2.80.
Also in the Energy grouping, the Carbon Emission issue appears on the 'Gainers' list with +4.2% for Monday's session. The price has pushed up to the highs of the short-term range, near 7.25. The stoploss on the short held in the item is at 7.30.
In the Precious Metals sector, Silver seems to be underperforming this month. On Monday, the price renewed the decline from resistance at the 200-day moving average, heading back to the March floor at 15.26. Should that yield, there is a stronger platform at 14.705; the upward dynamic plotted on 1 December 2014.
In Industrial Metals, Zinc's overbought recovery has faltered at 2248. Resistance has been encountered near the December high (2257.5). It will be interesting to see if former resistance at the mid-January/February ceiling near 2150; close to the longer-term MA will convert into support.
In Meats, Cattle contracts continued to slide yesterday. The stoploss (3.41%) on the long held in Live Cattle was activated.
We continue to hold a short in Lean Hogs in this sector, and lower the stop to 82. The price falls from downtrend resistance at the shorter-term MA towards the March low at 72.05.
In Grains, the Soybean Meal instrument gained 1.1% yesterday. We hold onto the short trade, though, as the overall chart pattern remains top heavy, which should dampen bullish enthusiasm, and ultimately lead to further slippage towards the October floor at 292.3.
In Softs, the recovery from oversold by Sugar has stalled. Resistance is encountered at 13.34; at the 50-day MA. A clearance of that line would be required to remove the risk of an additional slide back to the contract low at 12.03.
|MO1||Carbon Emission (Cont)||7.13||+4.2%|
|MOZ5||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015)||7.17||+4.2%|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||12800||+2.0%|
|W 2||Wheat CBT (cont)||498.25||+1.8%|
|SMK5||Soybean Meal CBT (May 2015)||318.5||+1.1%|
|SBN5||Sugar NYBOT (July 2015)||12.69||-4.2%|
|SB1||Sugar NYBOT 1st Month Continuation||12.69||-4.2%|
|SB2||Sugar NYBOT (cont)||12.67||-3.9%|
|NG2||Natural Gas NYME (cont)||2.578||-3.8%|
|NGM5||Natural Gas NYME (June 15)||2.578||-3.8%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|17 Apr 2015||Crude Oil NYME (June 2015)||CLM5||Long||56.71||57.88||+2.06%||45|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|5 Mar 2015||Wheat CBT (May 2015)||W K5||Short||489.25||498.75||-1.94%||550|
|12 Mar 2015||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015)||MOZ5||Short||6.6||7.17||-8.64%||7.3|
|17 Mar 2015||Corn CBT (May 15)||C K5||Short||373.75||378||-1.14%||401|
|10 Apr 2015||Soybean Meal CBT (May 2015)||SMK5||Short||309.2||318.5||-3.01%||340|
|15 Apr 2015||Lean Hogs CME (LH Jun 2015)||LHM5||Short||75.475||75.525||-0.07%||82|
- The stoploss is hit on long Live Cattle.
- The stop is lowered on short Lean Hogs.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||S-t uptrend emerges from the oversold Mar low towards the Feb ceiling. Potential base.||222.72||-0.5%||200.16/206.813||242.602/229.571|
|CLM5||Crude Oil NYME (June 15)||Consolidates the base breakout.||57.88||+1.0%||45.93||70.25/60.31|
|XBM5||Gasoline RBOB NYME (June15)||Pushes up to the Feb, and base, highs.||193.68||+0.1%||153.1/167.99||210.5/196.17|
|HOM5||Heating Oil NYME (June 15)||Rallies to the Feb, and base, highs.||188.18||-0.2%||156.27/165.34||194.91/193.5|
|NGM5||Natural Gas NYME (June 15)||Reasserts the downtrend.||2.578||-3.8%||2.521||2.982/2.765|
|QZM5||Coal (June 15)||Retraces from the Feb/Mar ceiling. RSI oversold.||48.88||-0.5%||46.42||52.33|
|GCM5||Gold CMX (Jun 15)||Mar recovery yields to ranging.||1193.7||-0.8%||1133.7/1178.2||1309/1224.5|
|PAM5||Palladium NYME (Jun 15)||Counter move from the oversold contract low yields to ranging near 18 Mar resistance (788.9).||772.4||-1.3%||723||833.6/788.9|
|PLN5||Platinum NYME (July 15)||Recovery slows.||1148.8||-1.6%||1088.8/1114.7||1197.1|
|SIK5||Silver CMX (May 2015)||Retraces the Mar recovery.||15.889||-2.1%||14.705/15.26||18.535/17.405|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Recovery struggles at 1844; beneath the 200-day MA.||1810||-0.3%||1704.25/1744.85||1898/1844|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Retests support near the prior base highs in the range forming beneath the 200-day MA.||5980||-1.3%||5339.5/5560.5||6532.5/6294.5|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Overbought rally slows on the approach to the Nov high (2075).||2019||-0.6%||1792/1955||2120.25/2075|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Pauses the downtrend within the 2008/2009 base area.||12800||+2.0%||8850/12205||14380/13190|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Oversold and accelerated (trend-ending feature) fall finds intraday support at 13600.||14550||-2.0%||11900||18310/17651|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Overbought recovery falters near the Dec high.||2178||-1.6%||1981/2173.5||2318.25/2257.5|
|FCK5||Feeder Cattle CME (May 2015)||Downtrend emerges from the early-Apr high.||205.15||-1.6%||193.9/196.9||220.875/214.15|
|LCM5||Live Cattle CME (Jun 15)||Breaks support near the 50 and 200-day MAs. Falls back into this year's earlier small base.||145.875||-2.1%||142.6/144.05||154.675/152.425|
|LHM5||Lean Hogs CME (Jun 15)||Recovery from oversold falters at downtrend resistance from the 50-day MA.||75.525||-1.0%||72.05||85.475/79.75|
|C K5||Corn CBT (May 15)||Sharp fall reaffirms sideways resistance at 400. Support at the Mar floor (367) holds.||378||-0.5%||352.25/367||425.25/400|
|O N5||Oats CBT (July 15)||Counter rally from oversold slows beneath downtrend resistance from the 50-day MA.||266.75||-0.8%||257.75||301.25/292|
|IJK5||Rapeseed LIFFE (May 15)||Finds intraday support at 368. Possibly reasserting the uptrend to the 2014 high (383.5).||375.75||+0.5%||358.25/362||383.5/379.25|
|S K5||Soybeans CBT (May 15)||Moves back over the Mar low (951.25). 'Bear trap' recovery follows.||977.5||+0.9%||928.75/944.5?||1039/999|
|SMK5||Soybean Meal CBT (May 2015)||Pauses the s-t fall but top heavy.||318.5||+1.1%||292.3||351.7/333.8|
|BOK5||Soybean Oil CBT (May 2015)||Ranging above the Jan low.||31.59||+0.2%||29.56||33.5/31.69|
|W K5||Wheat CBT (May 2015)||Falls from resistance at the sideways area along 550 towards the Mar floor.||498.75||+0.9%||478.25||607.5/547.25|
|QKK5||Wheat LIFFE (May 2015)||Extends the decline towards the Sept floor.||114.55||-0.7%||112.75||148/127.25|
|CCN5||Cocoa NYBOT (July 2015)||Recovery from the Feb low falters as resistance is found at the 200-day MA.||2779||-2.1%||2671||2888|
|KCN5||Coffee NYBOT (July 2015)||Range forms beneath resistance at the 50-day MA.||138.7||0.00%||129.65/132||175.15/150|
|CTN5||Cotton (July 2015)||Failed break over the Feb high (66.54) leads to a 'bull trap' reaction.||63.04||-0.4%||60.5||66.7|
|LBN5||Lumber CME (July 2015)||Holds the decline near the contract low. RSI oversold.||248.4||+0.2%||/||289/255.7|
|JON5||Orange Juice (July 2015)||Holds the s-t fall to Mar support.||113.75||-1.1%||106.7||129.15|
|SBN5||Sugar NYBOT (July 2015)||Recovery from oversold stalls near the 50-day MA.||12.69||-4.2%||12.03||15.38/13.34|
Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.