|Commodities Daily Hotline
26 January 2016 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
The small recovery from the oversold contract lows by Oil instruments has faltered. In the case of Gasoline, a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal from 112.18 was drawn; and the low at 102.4 is under pressure. The chart pattern is dominated by supply, which should force lower levels. A short is opened with the stop placed above the last recovery high, at 138, for the moment.
Also in the Energy sector, the Carbon Emission instrument has recorded a 7.1% loss as the price takes another step downwards. A move through initial resistance at 6.55 would be required to interrupt the down bias towards next important chart support around 5, the May 2014 floor. However, we would point out the deeply oversold RSI indicator.
In the Precious Metals sector, Platinum (the subject of yesterday's Chart of the Day section) has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal at 852 on the automated scanner. Gaining 3.6%, the price has jumped up to test potential resistance at the 50-day Moving Average. If that line can be overcome, the next chart target is the sideways area along 900.
Gold, in this grouping, challenges resistance at the early-January high, at 1113.1, after developing support near the upper side of the previous short-term trading band/base. We will consider purchasing in the event of a sustained breakout (see also hotline for 21 January).
In the Softs sector, NYBOT Sugar has produced a 'Bear' P&F Breakout signal at 14.15. This less sensitive High/Low graph shows the price easing towards support at the lows of the range, near 14. That trading band may yet turn out to be an extended consolidation of the initial strong recovery from the August/September floor.
We continue to hold a long trade in the LIFFE Sugar instrument. The advance has paused again, though the price maintains short-term uptrend support at the 50-day MA.
Also in this sector, we continue to hold a short position in Cocoa. The bounce from oversold has run out of steam, and it is possible that the downtrend within the November 2014/early-May 2015 base is reasserting.
|PLJ6||Platinum NYME (April 16)||861.5||+3.6%|
|PL1||Platinum NYME 1st Month Continuation||859.7||+3.6%|
|PL2||Platinum NYME (cont)||861.5||+3.6%|
|PLAT||London Spot Platinum||858.75||+3.3%|
|MO1||Carbon Emission (Cont)||5.88||-7.1%|
|MOZ6||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2016)||5.91||-7.1%|
|CL2||Crude Oil NYME (cont)||31.25||-6.7%|
|HO1||Heating Oil NYME 1st Month Continuation||93.53||-6.1%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|7 Jan 2016||Sugar White LIFFE (March 2016)||QWH6||Long||428.8||421||-1.82%||390|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|4 Jan 2016||Wheat CBT (March 2016)||W H6||Short||458.25||481.5||-5.07%||510|
|11 Jan 2016||Coffee NYBOT (March 2016)||KCH6||Short||114.45||116.45||-1.75%||123|
|20 Jan 2016||Cocoa NYBOT (March 2016)||CCH6||Short||2850||2819||+1.09%||3050|
|20 Jan 2016||Lumber CME (March 2016)||LBH6||Short||238.4||233.3||+2.14%||256|
|25 Jan 2016||Gasoline RBOB NYME (March 2016)||XBH6||Short||105.25||105.25||0.00%||138|
- A short is opened in Gasoline (Chart of the Day).
- We watch to buy Gold.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Small recovery from oversold stalls. Possibly reasserting the downtrend towards the early-2002 floor.||160.459||-2.0%||145.46/154.846||177.645/163.983|
|CLH6||Crude Oil NYME (March 16)||Small recovery from the oversold contract low finds intraday resistance at 32.74.||30.34||-5.7%||27.56||40.18|
|XBH6||Gasoline RBOB NYME (March16)||Bounce from the oversold contract low is capped by a 'Peak' KDR.||105.25||-5.0%||102.4||136.17/112.18|
|HOH6||Heating Oil NYME (March 16)||Small recovery off the oversold contract low finds intraday resistance at 102.53.||95.01||-5.7%||86.05||126.2|
|NGH6||Natural Gas NYME (March 16)||Jan fall shows a minor loss of momentum.||2.155||+0.7%||1.91||2.493|
|QZH6||Coal (March 16)||Bounce from oversold yields to ranging beneath the Jul ceiling.||43.25||0.00%||42.28||44.27|
|GCG6||Gold CMX (Feb 16)||Tests the early-Jan high (1113.1) having developed support near the upper side of the prior s-t trading band (base?).||1105.3||+0.8%||1045.4/1071.1||1192.1/1113.1|
|PAH6||Palladium NYME (Mar 16)||Bounces from the oversold contract low.||491.15||-1.7%||451.5||722.05/574.5|
|PLJ6||Platinum NYME (April 16)||'Bear trap' recovery from the contract low. Probes potential resistance at the 50-day MA.||861.5||+3.6%||811.4||899.1|
|SIH6||Silver CMX (March 2016)||Retests resistance near the 50-day MA. A breakout would add weight to the base theory.||14.254||+1.4%||13.635||14.64|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||'Bull trap' reaction yields to ranging near the Nov low (1432.5).||1476||-0.4%||1383/1432.5||1646/1564|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Fall from the 50-day MA slows near the 14 May 2009 low (4315).||4417||-0.6%||4158/4315||5440.5/4750|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Small recovery struggles near the 50-day MA.||1622.5||-1.0%||1551.5/1588||1832/1801/1640|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||'Bear trap' recovery slows by potential resistance at the 50-day MA.||8550||-1.7%||6810/8100||10785/9330|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Oversold fall reverses.||13675||-0.1%||11900/13085||15200/13985|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Downtrend slows.||1515||+0.3%||1432/1440/1444.5||1881.5/1642.5|
|FCH6||Feeder Cattle CME (March 2016)||Finds support above the Dec contract low. Reverses the s-t decline.||157.775||-0.1%||141.7/147.775||166.875|
|LCG6||Live Cattle CME (Feb 16)||Reverses the s-t fall after finding support above the Dec floor.||131.425||-0.5%||121.975/126.3||145.975/137.875|
|LHJ6||Lean Hogs CME (Apr 16)||Rally from the base finds some intraday resistance at 69.85. RSI high.||68.775||-0.3%||59.225/64.5||74.4|
|C H6||Corn CBT (March 16)||Extends the recovery from the contract low towards the Dec ceiling.||369.75||-0.1%||348.5||396.75/382|
|O H6||Oats CBT (March 16)||Reasserts the recovery from the oversold contract low.||205.25||-0.1%||192.5||261.5/247.5|
|IJG6||Rapeseed LIFFE (February 16)||Pauses the oversold s-t fall towards the Aug spiked low.||360||+0.1%||340.25/353||376.25/361.25|
|S H6||Soybeans CBT (March 16)||Extends the m-t range (base?).||880.5||+0.5%||847||911.5|
|SMH6||Soybean Meal CBT (March 2016)||Small Jan recovery yields to ranging benetah downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||272.5||+1.5%||263.8||284.6/277.2|
|BOH6||Soybean Oil CBT (March 2016)||Pullback from the overbought and accelerated early-Dec high reverses.||30.44||-0.2%||27.25/29||32.72|
|W H6||Wheat CBT (March 2016)||Trades near downtrend resistance from the 50-day MA.||481.5||+1.3%||456||499.75/484.25?|
|QKK6||Wheat LIFFE (May 2016)||Reasserts the decline and tests the contract low.||112.3||0.00%||112?||119/116/114.25|
|CCH6||Cocoa NYBOT (March 2016)||Possibly reasserting the fall within the Nov/early-May base after a bounce from oversold.||2819||-1.8%||2650/2755||3025/2954|
|KCH6||Coffee NYBOT (March 2016)||Pauses the downtrend after a new contract low.||116.45||+0.4%||111.05||128.3/116.6|
|CTH6||Cotton (March 2016)||Pauses the s-t fall towards the Sept floor.||61.6||-1.4%||59.45/61.15||65.23/62.46|
|LBH6||Lumber CME (March 2016)||Extends the s-t fall towards the Sept low.||233.3||-0.5%||226||270.4/252.2|
|JOH6||Orange Juice (March 2016)||Oversold fall from the s-t range/top finds intraday support at 113.5; above the Sept/Oct trough.||123.95||+1.9%||107.65||156.85|
|SBH6||Sugar NYBOT (March 2016)||Recovery from the Aug/Sept floor yields to ranging. Eases to the pattern lows.||14.1||-2.2%||13.69/13.93||16.64/15.85|
Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.