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Commodities Daily Hotline
21 April 2016                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Heating Oil and Crude trend higher

 

In the Energy sector, the Heating Oil instrument has recorded a 5.3% gain for Wednesday's session.  Finding support at the 50-day Moving Average recently, the price has resumed the uptrend towards potential resistance at the 200-day MA, which is currently located near 140.50.  If that line can be overcome, the next chart resistance is at the late-November high at 151.65.

We continue to hold a long trade in Crude, which has a similar pattern.  The stop is raised to 38.

Daily Comment:

 

Industrial Metal, Aluminium, rallied well on Wednesday to pass prior resistance at the March ceiling at 1605.  The September/October highs, at 1664.75/1646, are the next targets for bulls.  We would point out, though, that the RSI is now overbought.

In the Precious Metal sector, Platinum has extended the uptrend past the October high and pressures the August peak at 1038.  We remain long in expectation of a breakout, and raise the stop to 935.

In Grains, the Oats contract has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal at 206, which we have followed.  A short-term base is in place that should sustain higher levels.  In view of the high level of the RSI, which indicates the onset of an overbought state increasing the likelihood of a correction, the stop is placed at a safe distance, at 188.

The Wheat instrument soared past the January high and 200-day MA to complete its base.  The move through that barrier, around 500, triggered the opening of a long trade (see yesterday's hotline).  Given the high level of the RSI indicator here too, the stop is inserted at 460 for the time being.

In Softs, Sugar has maintained the rally back towards the overbought March peak at 16.75.  Since the May contract is coming towards the end of its useful period, we close the long trade, making 5.92%. 

Orange Juice, in this sector, has posted a 2.8% loss as the price extended its pullback from overbought, dipping under near-term range support at 133.05; close to both the long and short-term MAs.  That action renews the fall from the December ceiling within the prior base, which stretches down to the January and March lows, at 115.75 and 118.35, respectively.  One notes there is some minor support beforehand at 127.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
CL1Crude Oil NYME 1st Month Continuation44.18+7.5%
O 1Oats CBT 1st Month Continuation207+5.7%
HO1Heating Oil NYME 1st Month Continuation133.22+5.5%
HO2Heating Oil NYME (cont)133.83+5.3%
HOM6Heating Oil NYME (June 2016)133.83+5.3%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
JO1Orange Juice 1st Month Continuation129.55-3.5%
JON6Orange Juice (July 2016)133.5-2.8%
JO2Orange Juice (cont)133.5-2.8%
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index81.5177-1.8%
CATLLive Cattle6.3212-1.1%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
17 Mar 2016 Copper Grade A LME 3m LMCADS03 Long 5059 4981 -1.54% 4500
11 Apr 2016 Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2016) MOZ6 Long 5.49 5.55 +1.09% 4.45
13 Apr 2016 Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months LMZSDS03 Long 1881.5 1940 +3.11% 1680
19 Apr 2016 Crude Oil NYME (June 2016) CLM6 Long 42.47 44.18 +4.03% 38
19 Apr 2016 Natural Gas NYME (June 16) NGM6 Long 2.188 2.18 -0.37% 1.8
19 Apr 2016 Platinum NYME (July 16) PLN6 Long 1010.3 1028.1 +1.76% 935
20 Apr 2016 Oats CBT (July 16) O N6 Long 206 214.75 +4.25% 188
20 Apr 2016 Wheat CBT (July 2016) W N6 Long 500 512.25 +2.45% 460
  • The long in Sugar is closed.
  • Stops are raised on long Crude and Platinum.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFEExtends the s-t uptrend on the break over the Mar high (178.68). Points towards the 200-day MA.181.436+2.0% 164.712/171.585186.338
CLM6Crude Oil NYME (June 16)Extends the s-t uptrend towards the 200-day MA.44.18+4.0% 36.57/3947.02
XBM6Gasoline RBOB NYME (June16)Reverses back up to resistance at the Jan high (157.23); near the 200-day MA.152.68+1.9% 137.22/141.54162.85/157.23
HOM6Heating Oil NYME (June 16)Renews the s-t uptrend. Points towards the 200-day MA.133.83+5.3% 108.5/118.21151.65
NGM6Natural Gas NYME (June 16)Breaks out of the s-t range/base. Renews the recovery.2.18-0.4% 1.844/1.9482.413/2.331
QZM6Coal (June 16)Trades near the contract low.43.630.00% /44.05
GCM6Gold CMX (Jun 16)Extends range (top?) forming beneath the Jan 2015 peak (1308).1254.4+0.0% 1071.8/1192.11309/1287.8
PAM6Palladium NYME (Jun 16)Rallies from the Jan/early-Mar base area back to the Mar high. RSI high.597.05+2.6% 480.45/533708.95/608.15
PLN6Platinum NYME (July 16)Extends the uptrend past the Oct high to the Aug peak (1038).1028.1+1.2% 911.3/938.11094.5/1038
SIN6Silver CMX (July 2016)Advance surges and becomes overbought.17.183+1.0% 14.8317.875
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mRallies past the early-Mar high (1605). RSI overbought.1622+2.2% 1449/14751664.75/1646
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mRallies from the late-Nov/Feb base to the Mar ceiling.4981+0.9% 4430/46315356/5131
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsBounces from the late-Feb/mid-Apr floor (1679). Breaks recent resistance at 1762; near the 50 and 200-day MAs.1771+0.6% 1588/16791966/1895
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsApril rally approaches the Mar high (9480).9325+0.6% 7550/824510785/9480
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsRallies from the large base; and 50-day MA, back to the Mar ceiling (17525).17200+0.3% 15160/16200/16300?18315/17651/17525
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsExtends the advance.1940+0.2% 1640.5/17152117.5/1997
FCQ6Feeder Cattle CME (August 2016)Trades under the floor of the m-t range, at the Dec platform (145.25); also the contract low, during Tues. RSI low.145.775-0.5% /164.1/156.425
LCM6Live Cattle CME (Jun 16)Falls to the Dec contract low. RSI oversold.117.275-1.1% 115.475131.35/124.9
LHM6Lean Hogs CME (Jun 16)Rebounds towards initial resistance at 80.95.79.6+0.9% 74.25/76.2/76.883.975/80.95
C N6Corn CBT (July 16)Extends the recovery from oversold past the Dec high (393). RSI overbought.399.75+2.6% 351.25/358.75423/407.5
O N6Oats CBT (July 16)Shoots past the Mar high (209) completing a s-t base. RSI high.214.75+5.0% 183.75/190.25241.25/219
IJQ6Rapeseed LIFFE (August 16)Rally to the Dec peak (369) is overbought.366.5+0.3% 351.5/355.5376/371.5/369
S N6Soybeans CBT (July 16)Overbought rally accelerates to the mid-2015 peak area.1019+2.4% 903.5/953.751031.25
SMN6Soybean Meal CBT (July 2016)Overbought rally accelerates past the Oct high (312.4).321.5+4.4% 268/291343.6/330
BON6Soybean Oil CBT (July 2016)Renews the uptrend. Trades over the Jun 2015 high (35.23) during Wed.34.93-0.4% 33.06/33.4135.76
W N6Wheat CBT (July 2016)Surges past the Jan high (499); and 200-day MA, completing a base. RSI overbought.512.25+3.6% 449.5547.25/534.25
QKX6Wheat LIFFE (November 2016)Reverses up to test sideways resistance near 120.119.9+1.0% 113.5/116.5126.7/120.25
CCN6Cocoa NYBOT (July 2016)Rally from the s-t base heads for the Mar high.3090+0.4% 28523147
KCN6Coffee NYBOT (July 2016)Retraces the correction from the overbought Mar high.128.7+0.6% 121.1138.2
CTN6Cotton (July 2016)Extends the overbought rally towards the Dec peak area.64.09+1.6% 59.1266.31/65.56
LBN6Lumber CME (July 2016)Pauses the correction from the overbought contract high.286.8-0.0% 254.4/276.6317.1/300
JON6Orange Juice (July 2016)Dips under s-t range support (133.05); at the 50 and 200-day MAs during Wed. Renews the fall from the Dec ceiling.133.5-2.8% 118.35/127?155.95/150.6
SBK6Sugar NYBOT (May 2016)Holds the rally back towards the overbought Mar high.15.57+2.6% 12.61/1417.35/16.75


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