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Commodities Daily Hotline
22 June 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Oversold Copper nears support...

 

The majority of contracts in the Industrial Metals sector continued southwards on Friday.

In the case of Copper shown here, the decline has fallen towards support at the mid-February/March floor at 5560.5.  The RSI is indicating an oversold condition, so a counter rally from hereabouts is possible before long.  Should that low fail to provide a lift, however, the next target for bears is the January platform at 5339.5. 

Daily Comment:

 

Following on from the Chart of the Day section, the only base metal featured on the Focus List to show signs of life is Tin.  The price has reversed up towards downtrend resistance at the 50-day Moving Average.  A base could be under construction and we continue to monitor events with a view to purchasing in the future (see also Friday's Chart of the Day).

In the Precious Metals sector, Palladium has suffered another bout of downside acceleration.  While this is a trend-ending feature, and the RSI is oversold, the turning point is difficult to predict.

Energy contract, Gasoline, has generated a bearish P&F Breakout signal.  This follows the fall through 205.5 on the automated scanner.

The Candlestick chart reproduced here displays the price dropping back beneath the May ceiling and 200-day MA.  While this could augur 'bull trap' potential towards the 190 region, one must point out that the 50-day MA is close by and that line has offered a lift on the last couple of occasions of asking.

In Meats, the Lean Hogs instrument small recovery from oversold encountered stiff resistance at 76.975 last week.  The price has fallen sharply back to challenge support at the March floor at 73.55 again.  Although the RSI is still oversold, a clearance of that initial resistance, preferably on a dynamic move, would be needed in order to reaffirm that platform.

In Grains, the Oats issue has recorded a 2.7% loss for Friday's session.  The price extends the 'bull trap' reaction (following the failed break over the short-term range) towards support at the late-March low at 233.5.  The stoploss on the long held in the item is at 230.

In contrast, Rapeseed posted a 1.5% gain to climb back up to the overbought early-June high at 380.  We watch to buy a breakout for the potential towards the October/November 2013 ceiling at 390.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
JON5Orange Juice (July 2015)120.35+2.3%
JO1Orange Juice 1st Month Continuation120.35+2.3%
JO2Orange Juice (cont)121.8+2.2%
IJQ5Rapeseed LIFFE (August 15)379.25+1.5%
IJ1Rapeseed LIFFE 1st Month Continuation379.25+1.5%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
LH2Lean Hogs CME (cont)73.825-2.9%
QS1Gas Oil IPE 1st Month Continuation571-2.9%
LHQ5Lean Hogs CME (LH Aug 2015)73.825-2.9%
HEATHeating Oil14.765-2.8%
O N5Oats CBT (July 15)244-2.7%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
5 Jun 2015 Oats CBT (July 15) O N5 Long 256 244 -4.69% 230
8 Jun 2015 Orange Juice (July 2015) JON5 Long 121 120.35 -0.54% 105.5
10 Jun 2015 Feeder Cattle CME (August 2015) FCQ5 Long 226.75 223.425 -1.47% 217.5
  • We watch to buy Tin and Rapeseed.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFEExtends the 2015 range/base. Pauses at the upper boundary.222.127-0.9% 215.748/218.917242.602/233.531
CLQ5Crude Oil NYME (August 15)Develops support at the top of the prior base.59.97-1.4% 56.8864.12
XBQ5Gasoline RBOB NYME (August15)Pauses the advance. Potential 'bull trap' over the May ceiling and 200-day MA.202.02-2.4% 189.8223.92/213.71
HOQ5Heating Oil NYME (August 15)Possibly reasserting the drift from the early-May overbought high.187.34-2.5% 168.45/182.81206.84
NGQ5Natural Gas NYME (August 15)Potential base extension phase.2.84+1.5% 2.5693.269/3.167
QZQ5Coal (August 15)Plots a new contract low. RSI oversold.41.23-0.2% /51.6
GCQ5Gold CMX (Aug 15)Failed break under the s-t range. 'Bear trap' recovery follows.1201.9-0.0% 1143.5/1162.11309/1232.8
PAU5Palladium NYME (Sep 15)Oversold fall accelerates (trend-ending feature). Falls to a new contract low.707.4-1.6% /804
PLN5Platinum NYME (July 15)Oversold fall slows slightly after a new contract low is drawn.1086.8+0.4% /1188.2/1119.6
SIN5Silver CMX (July 2015)Correction from overbought pauses near Apr support.16.109-0.3% 15.31/15.59518.555/17.775
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mExtends the fall towards the Feb 2014 floor (1671.25). RSI low.1691.5-0.6% 1545/1671.251978.25/1782
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mExtends the oversold fall. Approaches the mid-Feb/Mar floor (5560.5).5659-1.7% 5339.5/5560.56481/6083.5
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsExtends the oversold fall past late-Mar support (1792) after a brief pause.1785-1.2% 1676.52259/2009
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsRetraces the recovery from the 'Trough' KDR of 1 Jun.12710-0.1% 8850/1220515505/14675
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsReverses the s-t fall towards the Apr floor (13600). Points back to downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.15395+0.2% 13600/1428017651/16400
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsExtends the s-t decline. RSI oversold.2045.5-1.0% 19812253/2191
FCQ5Feeder Cattle CME (August 2015)Pauses the advance towards the Oct/Nov ceiling (237.95).223.425+0.7% 205.975/220.45237.95/227.8
LCQ5Live Cattle CME (Aug 15)Pauses the retreat from the Jan high.150.675+0.9% 143.95156.3/154.4
LHQ5Lean Hogs CME (Aug 15)Retraces the small recovery from oversold. Retests the Mar floor. RSI oversold again.73.825-2.9% 73.5585.05/76.975
C N5Corn CBT (July 15)Finds resistance beneath the May high and the 50-day MA. Possibly reasserting the downtrend to the Oct floor.353.25-1.3% 346.75388.5/371.5
O N5Oats CBT (July 15)'Bull trap' reaction towards the late-May low (233.5).244-2.7% 223/233.5288/275.5
IJQ5Rapeseed LIFFE (August 15)Retraces the pullback from overbought. Retests the early-June high (380).379.25+1.5% 355/367.75390/380
S N5Soybeans CBT (July 15)Recovery from the oversold late-May low slows on the approach to resistance near the psychological 1000 area.971.5-0.6% 920.5/930.251042.75/997.5
SMN5Soybean Meal CBT (July 2015)Recovery from the Oct floor slows by potential resistance at the 200-day MA.323.1-1.1% 296.3/308.9347.1/333
BON5Soybean Oil CBT (July 2015)Holds the pullback from the Oct high (35.77) towards the late-May low.32.55+0.9% 29.79/31.5937.64/35.77/35.29
W N5Wheat CBT (July 2015)Potential base forms beneath the sideways trading near 550. However, retraces from the 'Peak' KDR of 10 June towards the pattern lows.488.5+0.1% 460.75551.25
QKX5Wheat LIFFE (November 2015)Pullback from resistance near the 200-day MA slows above the May lows.122.5+0.8% 117.25/119.25135/130.05
CCN5Cocoa NYBOT (July 2015)Overbought advance fails to maintain the nudge past the Sept peak (3301).3270-0.9% 2857/30503304?
KCN5Coffee NYBOT (July 2015)Holds the downtrend.127.15-1.2% 121.15/123.55150/143.85/138.85
CTN5Cotton (July 2015)Ranging near support from the Apr floor.63.32-1.2% 62.3568.5/66.93
LBN5Lumber CME (July 2015)Overbought s-t rally probes potential resistance near the 200-day MA.298.6+0.2% 238.9/263.5326
JON5Orange Juice (July 2015)Potential base.120.35+2.3% 106.7/107.75140/129.15
SBN5Sugar NYBOT (July 2015)New contract low. RSI oversold.11.12-1.2% /13.6/12.5


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