|Commodities Daily Hotline
16 May 2016 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
In the Grains sector, the price of the Soybean Oil instrument has backed away from the small top area to probe recent support at the 200-day Moving Average near 32. A sustained fall under that level would renew the decline from the April peak towards the early-March low at 30.33. We will consider selling such a breakout (through 32).
Also in the Grains sector, the MATIF Wheat contract has produced a bullish P&F Breakout signal at 167.75 on the automated scanner. It is true that the price develops support at the lows of the short-term range, around 165. Nonetheless, a sustained push over 175 would be required to indicate a base breakout. At present, we would prefer to wait for a move to 176 before considering longs.
The CBT Wheat issue has rebounded from prior support at the March/April floor to reverse the correction from overbought. In the event of a better recovery, next chart resistance is at 497; the 28 April high.
In Softs, the Rubber instrument lost 6.2% on Friday. The correction from overbought started when resistance was encountered at the early-2015 top mostly evident above 200. Now, the pullback is becoming oversold; near potential support from the September 2015 to early-March 2016 base area beneath current levels. The first two support points should the price fall within that pattern are at 153.4 and 139.
Also in this sector, the Palm Oil instrument shed 2.7% before the weekend. The uptrend is faltering beneath the 2014 peak area. In the event of a deeper correction, the large base starting near 2400 may cushion downside risk.
In Meats, the Cattle issues found intraday support at 142.875 for Feeder and 121.2 for Live.
The former had been retracing the recovery from the oversold contract low, at 138.1, after finding resistance at 152.2. Despite the intraday bounce, it remains to be seen whether Feeder Cattle has entered a basing phase.
The Live Cattle price has bounced from the 50-day MA to reassert the recovery to resistance at the 11 April high at 124.9. Note that barrier is reinforced by the presence of the 200-day MA. A clearance could renew the rally towards the March peak at 131.35, though one noted (minor) resistance beforehand at 126.35.
Also in this sector, the Lean Hogs instrument continues to encounter resistance at the March high at 83.975. Still, the short-term uptrend from the April low remains intact; and we watch to buy a breakout, which should spur the price on to new contract highs.
|O 1||Oats CBT 1st Month Continuation||195.25||+8.5%|
|O 2||Oats CBT (cont)||206.75||+7.8%|
|LH1||Lean Hogs CME 1st Month Continuation||81.95||+6.5%|
|W 1||Wheat CBT 1st Month Continuation||474.75||+3.5%|
|W 2||Wheat CBT (cont)||484||+3.4%|
|JN1||Rubber TCM 1st Month Continuation||164||-6.2%|
|KO1||Palm Oil 1st Mth Continuation||2604||-2.7%|
|NG1||Natural Gas NYME 1st Month Continuation||2.096||-2.7%|
|NGM6||Natural Gas NYME (June 16)||2.096||-2.7%|
|QC3||Cocoa LIFFE (cont)||2135||-2.5%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|13 Apr 2016||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||LMZSDS03||Long||1881.5||1889||+0.40%||1770|
|19 Apr 2016||Natural Gas NYME (June 16)||NGM6||Long||2.188||2.096||-4.20%||1.9|
|26 Apr 2016||Gasoline RBOB NYME (June 2016)||XBM6||Long||157.23||158.82||+1.01%||135|
|10 May 2016||Rapeseed LIFFE (August 16)||IJQ6||Long||368.5||371.25||+0.75%||355|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|21 Apr 2016||Coffee NYBOT (July 2016)||KCN6||Short||124.1||130.1||-4.83%||133|
- We watch to buy Lean Hogs and MATIF Wheat; and sell Soybean Oil (Chart of the Day).
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Reasserts the s-t rally to the late-Nov high (186.338); and 200-day MA.||182.548||-0.6%||164.712/171.585||198.318/186.338|
|CLN6||Crude Oil NYME (July 16)||Reasserts the advance to the late-Nov high (48.35).||46.21||-1.0%||37.5/39.8||52.25/48.35|
|XBM6||Gasoline RBOB NYME (June16)||Strongly reasserts the s-t rally to the early-Dec high (162.85).||158.82||+0.3%||137.22/141.54||173.11/162.85|
|HON6||Heating Oil NYME (July 16)||Reasserts the s-t rally after correcting from overbought. Retests resistance at the 200-day MA.||140.31||+0.7%||110.75/119.7||153.38/142.35|
|NGM6||Natural Gas NYME (June 16)||'Bull trap' pullback yields to ranging above the floor of the mid-Mar/mid-Apr range.||2.096||-2.7%||1.844/1.948||2.413/2.331/2.304|
|QZN6||Coal (July 16)||Pauses the fall near the contract low.||43.63||0.00%||44.75||45.3|
|GCM6||Gold CMX (Jun 16)||Pullback from the Jan 2015 peak (1309) slows slightly above potential support from the 50-day MA.||1272.7||+0.1%||1071.8/1192.1||1350.2/1327.5/1309|
|PAM6||Palladium NYME (Jun 16)||Rebound from the 50-day MA pauses.||592.4||-0.7%||533/593/576||708.95/636.1|
|PLN6||Platinum NYME (July 16)||Ranging by resistance near the late-June 2015 high (1094.5) and 'Peak' KDR (1092.3) of 3 May.||1052.1||-0.2%||971.2/1000.3||1121.4/1094.5|
|SIN6||Silver CMX (July 2016)||Reasserts the correction from overbought.||17.132||+0.2%||14.83/16.8?||18.485/18.06|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Correction from overbought continues towards the Mar/Apr lows.||1535.5||-0.6%||1475/1495.5||1686/1582|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Holds the retreat from the Mar ceiling (5131) towards the Feb low.||4627.5||+0.3%||4430||5356/5131|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Drops towards range support at the late-Feb/mid-Apr floor (1679).||1710.5||-0.0%||1588/1679||1895/1814.5|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Reasserts the pullback from overbought and the 200-day MA towards the Apr low (8245).||8640||+0.1%||7550/8245||10785/9700|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Sharp fall from the Mar ceiling (17525) towards the large base.||16655||-0.1%||15160/16200/16300?||18315/17651/17525|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Pauses the ranging advance from the 50-day MA.||1889||+1.0%||1715/1826||2117.5/1997/1958|
|FCQ6||Feeder Cattle CME (August 2016)||Retraces the recovery from the oversold contract low. Intraday support arrives at 142.875.||146.25||-0.7%||138.1||156.425/152.2|
|LCM6||Live Cattle CME (Jun 16)||Finds intraday support at 121.2. Reasserts the recovery to resistance at the 11 Apr high (124.9); and 200-day MA.||123.425||+0.7%||113.9||126.35/124.9|
|LHM6||Lean Hogs CME (Jun 16)||Continues to find resistance at the Mar high.||81.95||-1.3%||76.8/77.55||83.975|
|C N6||Corn CBT (July 16)||Failed break under the late-Apr low. 'Bear trap' towards initial resistance (395.25).||390.75||+0.4%||358.75/368||407.5/395.25|
|O N6||Oats CBT (July 16)||S-t fall from the overbought Apr high; near the 200-day MA, slows by the early-Mar low at 183.75 (also the contract low).||195.25||+1.8%||183.75||241.25/224.75|
|IJQ6||Rapeseed LIFFE (August 16)||Reasserts the advance.||371.25||+1.0%||351.5/355.5||383.5/376/372.25|
|S N6||Soybeans CBT (July 16)||Overbought advance slows.||1065||-0.7%||953.75/986.25||1109|
|SMN6||Soybean Meal CBT (July 2016)||Holds the overbought advance towards the late-Apr/Jun 2014 peak area.||363||-0.4%||291/308.4||384.1|
|BON6||Soybean Oil CBT (July 2016)||Finds resistance at the small top area. Probes support near the 200-day MA.||32.5||-0.2%||30.33/32.01||35.76/35.43|
|W N6||Wheat CBT (July 2016)||Reverses the correction from overbought near the Mar/Apr floor.||474.75||+1.4%||449.5||518.5/497|
|QKX6||Wheat LIFFE (November 2016)||Ranging with a down bias towards the Mar floor.||117.55||+0.3%||113.5/115.5||126.7/122.5|
|CCN6||Cocoa NYBOT (July 2016)||Extends the correction from overbought towards the Apr low.||2967||-1.8%||2852||3254/3120|
|KCN6||Coffee NYBOT (July 2016)||'Bear trap' recovery tests resitance at the Apr peak at 131.2; near the 200-day MA.||130.1||+0.0%||115.35/118.9||138.2/131.95/131.2|
|CTN6||Cotton (July 2016)||Corrects from overbought towards the mid-Apr low.||60.62||-0.2%||59.12||65.56/64.75|
|LBN6||Lumber CME (July 2016)||Overbought rally pauses.||320.5||-0.5%||276.6/293.6||331.2|
|JON6||Orange Juice (July 2016)||Rallies back to the Dec-Apr ceiling around 150.||145.35||-1.1%||118.35/124||155.95/150.6|
|SBN6||Sugar NYBOT (July 2016)||Holds the advance to the Jan 2015 high (17.24).||16.74||-1.4%||15.01/15.55||18.64/17.24|
Copyright 2016 by Stockcube Research Ltd.