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Commodities Daily Hotline
13 March 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Hogs renew downtrend

After the Lean Hogs instrument plotted a 'Trough' Key Day Reversal on 4 March, near the February floor, it appeared that the downtrend could be levelling out, potentially building a base.  However, the 70 region proved too much of a barrier and the downtrend was resumed on Thursday.  A short trade is opened with the stop placed just over the descending 50-day moving average, at 72.50.

Daily Comment:

 

In the Grains sector, the Wheat contract has generated a bullish signal on the automated scanner following the move through 507.  The Candlestick chart reproduced here displays a recovery from oversold underway.  Still, a sustained push over the shorter-term moving average is required to interrupt the downward tendency.  We remain short.

In the Softs grouping, the Cocoa issue extended its correction from overbought on Thursday before finding some intraday support at 2813.  We err on the side of caution and book the remaining profit on the short trade, making 4.09%.

Also in this sector, Cotton's correction from the overbought high near 66; and the 200-day MA, may well have been checked after a 'Trough' Key Day Reversal was plotted yesterday, from 60.26.  A fall back beneath that level would be required to reinstate the decline towards the January floor, rather than a further recovery back towards last month's ceiling.

Industrial Metal, Copper, makes an appearance in the 'Gainers' column with +2%.  The price of the contract looks to be developing support at the upper side of the short-term base formation.  We continue to hold a long trade in the metal.

In Energy, the Carbon Emission instrument has recorded a 5.1% loss, triggering the stoploss (16.24%) on the long trade.  What is more, the price has fallen out of a top formation, as it fell through 6.60 to produce a 'Bear' P&F Breakout signal, which we have followed.  The stop is placed at 7.30.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
JJCCopper31.79+2.1%
W 1Wheat CBT 1st Month Continuation513.25+2.0%
HG2Copper CMX (cont)265.85+2.0%
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3m5844+2.0%
HGK5Copper CMX (May 2015)265.85+2.0%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
MO1Carbon Emission (Cont)6.41-5.2%
MOZ5Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015)6.46-5.1%
HOGSLean Hogs0.6835-4.7%
LB1Lumber CME 1st Month Continuation270.2-4.1%
JO1Orange Juice 1st Month Continuation114.4-3.3%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Commodities Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
26 Feb 2015 Copper Grade A LME 3m LMCADS03 Long 5888 5844 -0.75% 5500
27 Feb 2015 White Maize SAFEX (July 04) WZN5 Long 2715 2701 -0.52% 2400
27 Feb 2015 Soybean Oil CBT (May 2015) BOK5 Long 32.6 30.87 -5.31% 30.75
2 Mar 2015 Palladium NYME (Jun 15) PAM5 Long 821.55 786.95 -4.21% 770
11 Mar 2015 Rapeseed LIFFE (May 15) IJK5 Long 371 368.25 -0.74% 350
11 Mar 2015 Live Cattle CME (LC Apr 2015) LCJ5 Long 155 155.8 +0.52% 145
Commodities Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
5 Mar 2015 Wheat CBT (May 2015) W K5 Short 489.25 507.25 -3.68% 550
12 Mar 2015 Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015) MOZ5 Short 6.6 6.46 +2.12% 7.3
12 Mar 2015 Lean Hogs CME (LH Apr 2015) LHJ5 Short 62.3 62.3 0.00% 72.5
  • Shorts are opened in Carbon Emission and Hogs (Chart of the Day).
  • The remaining profit is booked on short Cocoa.
  • The stoploss on the long held in Carbon Emission is hit.
Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFERetraces from resistance at the 50-day MA. Points to the Jan low (211.269).214.66-0.6% 200.16/211.269242.602/229.571
CLJ5Crude Oil NYME (April 15)Recovery is still penned in by resistance at the 50-day MA. Possible base extension.47.05-2.3% 44.3759.76/55.05
XBJ5Gasoline RBOB NYME (Apr15)Overbought rally pauses near 200.180.95-0.9% 149.64/169.99228.8/198.93
HOJ5Heating Oil NYME (Apr 15)Pauses the recovery near 200.177.91-2.3% 154.8/171.32238.24/197.86
NGJ5Natural Gas NYME (Apr 15)Downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA holds.2.734-3.2% 2.5893.045/2.87
QZJ5Coal (Apr 15)Reasserts the recovery after a brief correction from overbought.53.18+1.4% 46.4255.38
GCJ5Gold CMX (Apr 15)Accelerated and oversold fall approaches the Nov/Dec floor.1151.9+0.1% 1132.1/1143.41308.8/1223
PAM5Palladium NYME (Jun 15)Falls back into the base.786.95-0.3% 746.65910/844.65/833.6
PLJ5Platinum NYME (April 15)Extends the downtrend to a new contract low. RSI oversold.1114.9-0.0% /1258.7/1196.8
SIK5Silver CMX (May 2015)Holds the s-t fall towards the early-Dec floor. RSI low.15.516+1.0% 14.70518.535
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mRetreats from resistance near the sideways area along 1900. RSI low.1748+0.2% 1704.251898/1833
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mDevelops support near the s-t base highs, around 5700.5844+2.0% 5339.5/5560.56532.5/5960
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 Months'Bear trap' recovery slows by downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.1817+0.5% 1535/17252075/1918
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsFinds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.13905+0.9% 13205/1361015505/14675
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsRenews the fall towards the 2011/2012 platform (17000).17225-1.2% 15500/1700020620/20100
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsFalls from downtrend resistance at the 50 and 200-day MAs. Breaks mid-Jan support (2005.75).2008+0.6% 19372171.5/2049
FCJ5Feeder Cattle CME (April 2015)Extends the recovery towards the Jan high.212.9-0.1% 188.225/193.25224.875
LCJ5Live Cattle CME (Apr 15)Edges over resistance near the 50 and 200-day MAs. Possible base.155.8+0.1% 139.55/145.3166
LHJ5Lean Hogs CME (Apr 15)Breaks the Feb floor renewing the downtrend to a new contract low.62.3-2.8% /75.325/69.9
C K5Corn CBT (May 15)The late-Jan low holds. Rangebound beneath the Dec ceiling.388.5-0.6% 352.25/373.75425.25/400
O N5Oats CBT (July 15)Recovery from the oversold 'Trough' KDR of 26 Feb slows by downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.283.25-0.4% 268.75301.25/292
IJK5Rapeseed LIFFE (May 15)Holds the advance towards the 2013 highs.368.25-0.7% 354/358.25383.5/376.25
S K5Soybeans CBT (May 15)S-t fall from the 'Peak' KDR of 2 Mar slows on the approach to the Jan low.990.5-0.2% 928.75/961.751075/1039
SMK5Soybean Meal CBT (May 2015)Broadly rangebound beneath the Nov peak.331.6-0.5% 314.5358.5/351.7
BOK5Soybean Oil CBT (May 2015)Retraces the recovery. Dips under late-Feb support (31.06).30.87-0.7% 29.5634.16/33.5
W K5Wheat CBT (May 2015)Points to downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA.507.25+1.7% 478.25547.25/518.75
QKK5Wheat LIFFE (May 2015)Oversold decline pauses.120.25+0.7% 112.75/117148/127.25
CCK5Cocoa NYBOT (May 2015)Corrects from overbought. Some intraday support is noted at 2813.2838-0.6% 26743143/3038
KCK5Coffee NYBOT (May 2015)Oversold and accelerated decline pauses.132.2+0.3% 127.9/128.8187.4/172.55
CTK5Cotton (May 2015)Correction from overbought pauses with a 'Trough' KDR.61.22+1.5% 57.95/60.2668.11/66.24
LBK5Lumber CME (May 2015)Renews the downtrend.279.4-0.8% /324/299.9
JOK5Orange Juice (May 2015)Possibly reasserting the decline after bouncing from the oversold contract low.114.4-3.2% 110.5141/127/120.85
SBK5Sugar NYBOT (May 2015)Oversold decline slows near the contract low.13.21+0.5% /15.19/13.66


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