|Commodities Daily Hotline
13 March 2015 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
After the Lean Hogs instrument plotted a 'Trough' Key Day Reversal on 4 March, near the February floor, it appeared that the downtrend could be levelling out, potentially building a base. However, the 70 region proved too much of a barrier and the downtrend was resumed on Thursday. A short trade is opened with the stop placed just over the descending 50-day moving average, at 72.50.
In the Grains sector, the Wheat contract has generated a bullish signal on the automated scanner following the move through 507. The Candlestick chart reproduced here displays a recovery from oversold underway. Still, a sustained push over the shorter-term moving average is required to interrupt the downward tendency. We remain short.
In the Softs grouping, the Cocoa issue extended its correction from overbought on Thursday before finding some intraday support at 2813. We err on the side of caution and book the remaining profit on the short trade, making 4.09%.
Also in this sector, Cotton's correction from the overbought high near 66; and the 200-day MA, may well have been checked after a 'Trough' Key Day Reversal was plotted yesterday, from 60.26. A fall back beneath that level would be required to reinstate the decline towards the January floor, rather than a further recovery back towards last month's ceiling.
Industrial Metal, Copper, makes an appearance in the 'Gainers' column with +2%. The price of the contract looks to be developing support at the upper side of the short-term base formation. We continue to hold a long trade in the metal.
In Energy, the Carbon Emission instrument has recorded a 5.1% loss, triggering the stoploss (16.24%) on the long trade. What is more, the price has fallen out of a top formation, as it fell through 6.60 to produce a 'Bear' P&F Breakout signal, which we have followed. The stop is placed at 7.30.
|W 1||Wheat CBT 1st Month Continuation||513.25||+2.0%|
|HG2||Copper CMX (cont)||265.85||+2.0%|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||5844||+2.0%|
|HGK5||Copper CMX (May 2015)||265.85||+2.0%|
|MO1||Carbon Emission (Cont)||6.41||-5.2%|
|MOZ5||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015)||6.46||-5.1%|
|LB1||Lumber CME 1st Month Continuation||270.2||-4.1%|
|JO1||Orange Juice 1st Month Continuation||114.4||-3.3%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|26 Feb 2015||Copper Grade A LME 3m||LMCADS03||Long||5888||5844||-0.75%||5500|
|27 Feb 2015||White Maize SAFEX (July 04)||WZN5||Long||2715||2701||-0.52%||2400|
|27 Feb 2015||Soybean Oil CBT (May 2015)||BOK5||Long||32.6||30.87||-5.31%||30.75|
|2 Mar 2015||Palladium NYME (Jun 15)||PAM5||Long||821.55||786.95||-4.21%||770|
|11 Mar 2015||Rapeseed LIFFE (May 15)||IJK5||Long||371||368.25||-0.74%||350|
|11 Mar 2015||Live Cattle CME (LC Apr 2015)||LCJ5||Long||155||155.8||+0.52%||145|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|5 Mar 2015||Wheat CBT (May 2015)||W K5||Short||489.25||507.25||-3.68%||550|
|12 Mar 2015||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015)||MOZ5||Short||6.6||6.46||+2.12%||7.3|
|12 Mar 2015||Lean Hogs CME (LH Apr 2015)||LHJ5||Short||62.3||62.3||0.00%||72.5|
- Shorts are opened in Carbon Emission and Hogs (Chart of the Day).
- The remaining profit is booked on short Cocoa.
- The stoploss on the long held in Carbon Emission is hit.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Retraces from resistance at the 50-day MA. Points to the Jan low (211.269).||214.66||-0.6%||200.16/211.269||242.602/229.571|
|CLJ5||Crude Oil NYME (April 15)||Recovery is still penned in by resistance at the 50-day MA. Possible base extension.||47.05||-2.3%||44.37||59.76/55.05|
|XBJ5||Gasoline RBOB NYME (Apr15)||Overbought rally pauses near 200.||180.95||-0.9%||149.64/169.99||228.8/198.93|
|HOJ5||Heating Oil NYME (Apr 15)||Pauses the recovery near 200.||177.91||-2.3%||154.8/171.32||238.24/197.86|
|NGJ5||Natural Gas NYME (Apr 15)||Downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA holds.||2.734||-3.2%||2.589||3.045/2.87|
|QZJ5||Coal (Apr 15)||Reasserts the recovery after a brief correction from overbought.||53.18||+1.4%||46.42||55.38|
|GCJ5||Gold CMX (Apr 15)||Accelerated and oversold fall approaches the Nov/Dec floor.||1151.9||+0.1%||1132.1/1143.4||1308.8/1223|
|PAM5||Palladium NYME (Jun 15)||Falls back into the base.||786.95||-0.3%||746.65||910/844.65/833.6|
|PLJ5||Platinum NYME (April 15)||Extends the downtrend to a new contract low. RSI oversold.||1114.9||-0.0%||/||1258.7/1196.8|
|SIK5||Silver CMX (May 2015)||Holds the s-t fall towards the early-Dec floor. RSI low.||15.516||+1.0%||14.705||18.535|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Retreats from resistance near the sideways area along 1900. RSI low.||1748||+0.2%||1704.25||1898/1833|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Develops support near the s-t base highs, around 5700.||5844||+2.0%||5339.5/5560.5||6532.5/5960|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||'Bear trap' recovery slows by downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||1817||+0.5%||1535/1725||2075/1918|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Finds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||13905||+0.9%||13205/13610||15505/14675|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Renews the fall towards the 2011/2012 platform (17000).||17225||-1.2%||15500/17000||20620/20100|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Falls from downtrend resistance at the 50 and 200-day MAs. Breaks mid-Jan support (2005.75).||2008||+0.6%||1937||2171.5/2049|
|FCJ5||Feeder Cattle CME (April 2015)||Extends the recovery towards the Jan high.||212.9||-0.1%||188.225/193.25||224.875|
|LCJ5||Live Cattle CME (Apr 15)||Edges over resistance near the 50 and 200-day MAs. Possible base.||155.8||+0.1%||139.55/145.3||166|
|LHJ5||Lean Hogs CME (Apr 15)||Breaks the Feb floor renewing the downtrend to a new contract low.||62.3||-2.8%||/||75.325/69.9|
|C K5||Corn CBT (May 15)||The late-Jan low holds. Rangebound beneath the Dec ceiling.||388.5||-0.6%||352.25/373.75||425.25/400|
|O N5||Oats CBT (July 15)||Recovery from the oversold 'Trough' KDR of 26 Feb slows by downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||283.25||-0.4%||268.75||301.25/292|
|IJK5||Rapeseed LIFFE (May 15)||Holds the advance towards the 2013 highs.||368.25||-0.7%||354/358.25||383.5/376.25|
|S K5||Soybeans CBT (May 15)||S-t fall from the 'Peak' KDR of 2 Mar slows on the approach to the Jan low.||990.5||-0.2%||928.75/961.75||1075/1039|
|SMK5||Soybean Meal CBT (May 2015)||Broadly rangebound beneath the Nov peak.||331.6||-0.5%||314.5||358.5/351.7|
|BOK5||Soybean Oil CBT (May 2015)||Retraces the recovery. Dips under late-Feb support (31.06).||30.87||-0.7%||29.56||34.16/33.5|
|W K5||Wheat CBT (May 2015)||Points to downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA.||507.25||+1.7%||478.25||547.25/518.75|
|QKK5||Wheat LIFFE (May 2015)||Oversold decline pauses.||120.25||+0.7%||112.75/117||148/127.25|
|CCK5||Cocoa NYBOT (May 2015)||Corrects from overbought. Some intraday support is noted at 2813.||2838||-0.6%||2674||3143/3038|
|KCK5||Coffee NYBOT (May 2015)||Oversold and accelerated decline pauses.||132.2||+0.3%||127.9/128.8||187.4/172.55|
|CTK5||Cotton (May 2015)||Correction from overbought pauses with a 'Trough' KDR.||61.22||+1.5%||57.95/60.26||68.11/66.24|
|LBK5||Lumber CME (May 2015)||Renews the downtrend.||279.4||-0.8%||/||324/299.9|
|JOK5||Orange Juice (May 2015)||Possibly reasserting the decline after bouncing from the oversold contract low.||114.4||-3.2%||110.5||141/127/120.85|
|SBK5||Sugar NYBOT (May 2015)||Oversold decline slows near the contract low.||13.21||+0.5%||/||15.19/13.66|
Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.