investors intelligence
Generating first rate investment advice since 1947
Sample Research


Services:

Click here if you are unable to view the charts in this report

Commodities Daily Hotline
20 July 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: New low by Gold

 

The Gold instrument has followed other Precious Metals issues, Palladium and Platinum, in falling to new contract lows (see Friday's Chart of the Day section).  For the yellow metal, support at the November-March floor at 1140 yielded before the weekend.  That weakness is continuing in the out of hours session, with this contract trading at 1113.4 a short time ago.  However, we would point out also that the RSI has fallen towards oversold levels.

Daily Comment:

 

In Friday's report, the question was posed of whether downtrend resistance at the 50-day Moving Average for Industrial Metal, Tin, would make itself felt.  Following the previous day's +2.9% with +4.5%, the contract priced surged past that barrier, extending the recovery from oversold towards the next chart resistance at the late-April/May ceiling at 16400. 

In contrast, Aluminium's recovery from oversold shows a loss of momentum near short-term downtrend resistance from the 50-day MA.  A clearance of early-July resistance near that line, at 1744.5, would be required to remove the danger of a retracement.

In the Energy sector, the Coal instrument has been languishing near the contract low for some time.  This is in spite of the deeply oversold RSI indicator.  On Friday, the price rebounded strongly from that floor, at 41.03, to challenge potential resistance at the 50-day MA.  If a sustained breakout can be achieved, the 200-day MA will become the next target for bulls.

We continue to hold a non-performing long trade in Gasoline in this sector.  Following the failed break under the previous short-term range, though, there is potential 'bear trap' scope towards the upper side of the pattern, near 213.

In Grains, the correction from overbought by the Wheat contract has reached an interesting point.  The 550 area used to represent resistance at the top side of the medium-term base, and has the potential to convert into support.  Also, the 50 and 200-day MAs are located nearby, and may also offer a lift.  We will consider buying should this turn out to be the case, especially if that occurs on a dynamic move.

In Softs, the Sugar issue has encountered resistance near the 50-day MA once again.  Shedding 2.5% on Friday, the price has eased to initial support at 11.84.  A jump past sideways trading near 12.80 would be required to reaffirm that support; and renew the recovery into supply from the year's earlier range, which stretches up to around 14.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
TINMTin26.235+5.6%
QZU5Coal (September 2015)43.13+5.1%
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 Months15780+4.5%
QZ2Coal43.08+4.1%
XB2Gasoline RBOB NYME (cont)187.77+1.9%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index54.202-4.7%
WEATWheat1.099-2.8%
SBV5Sugar NYBOT (October 2015)11.96-2.5%
SB1Sugar NYBOT 1st Month Continuation11.96-2.5%
SGGSugar29.01-2.4%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
23 Jun 2015 Gasoline RBOB NYME (August 2015) XBQ5 Long 204.33 192.86 -5.61% 185
26 Jun 2015 Cotton (December 2015) CTZ5 Long 66.99 65.22 -2.64% 62.75
14 Jul 2015 Cocoa NYBOT (September 2015) CCU5 Long 3338 3346 +0.24% 3025
    • We watch to buy Wheat.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFETests early-July support (213.107) within the 2015 range/base.214.542-0.5% 211.754/213.107242.602/233.531
CLU5Crude Oil NYME (September 15)Oversold s-t decline hovers near the year's earlier floor; close to the psychological 50 level.51.21-0.1% 49.6964.45
XBQ5Gasoline RBOB NYME (August15)Failed break under the prior s-t range. Potential 'bear trap'.192.86+1.7% 165.38/185.27223.92/213.71
HOQ5Heating Oil NYME (August 15)Renews the oversold fall towards the Jan floor.166.41-0.1% 161.85206.84
NGQ5Natural Gas NYME (August 15)Ranging above the Apr-Jun floor in potential base extension phase.2.87+0.6% 2.5693.269/3.167/2.977
QZU5Coal (September 15)Jumps up from the oversold contract low.43.13+5.1% 41.0351.6
GCV5Gold CMX (Oct 15)Extends the s-t fall past the Nov floor (1140) to a new contract low. RSI low.1131.9-1.0% /1205.5
PAU5Palladium NYME (Sep 15)Extends the downtrend to a new contract low. RSI oversold again.619-2.0% /702.8/667.6
PLV5Platinum NYME (October 15)Falls to a new contract low. RSI oversold again.1001.3-1.0% /1097.2/1041.4
SIU5Silver CMX (September 2015)Retraces the recovery from oversold after finding resistance near the 50-day MA.14.834-1.0% 14.6216.46/15.9
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mRecovery slows by s-t downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.1697-1.1% 1545/1631.51782/1744.5
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mStrong rebound from oversold pauses.5480-1.4% 4710/52405838/5722.5
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsRecovery from the oversold 'Trough' KDR of 8 July and Mar floor (1676.5) slows.1844+0.3% 1535/1676.52009
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsHolds the small recovery from oversold.11500-1.1% 8850/1043012965/12245
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsRecovery from the June low cracks downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.15780+4.5% 1336516400
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsRecovery from oversold finds intraday resistance at 2117.5.2066-0.3% 1855/19062191
FCU5Feeder Cattle CME (September 2015)Pauses the s-t downtrend towards the Apr low.215.2+0.3% 205.15225.55/219.3
LCV5Live Cattle CME (Oct 15)Holds the down bias towards the Apr low.146.65+0.1% 146156.15
LHV5Lean Hogs CME (Oct 15)'Bear trap' recovery pauses beneath resistance at the 50-day MA.75.675-0.4% 59.4567.2
C Z5Corn CBT (December 15)Retreats from the overbought 'Peak' KDR of 14 Jul towards initial support (424.5).431.25-2.2% 362.5/424.5469/454.25
O Z5Oats CBT (December 15)The s-t uptrend struggles beneath the 200-day MA.262.5-2.2% 249/256.5289/283.5
IJX5Rapeseed LIFFE (November 15)S-t rally from the 50-day MA struggles.388.75+0.3% 370.5/380408.75
S X5Soybeans CBT (November 15)Failed break over the early-Jul high (1040). 'Bull trap' pullback towards 980 region follows.1006.75-0.4% 895.75/978.751056.75/1045?
SMZ5Soybean Meal CBT (December 2015)Overbought rally slows beneath the mid-2014 top.347.7-0.6% 286/333.4363
BOZ5Soybean Oil CBT (December 2015)Did not maintain the dip under sideways support at 31.6. Potential 'bear trap'.32.16+1.1% 30.27/31.59?34.26/33.41
W U5Wheat CBT (September 2015)Correction from overbought reaches potential support at the top of the prior m-t base, around 550; near the 50 and 200-day MAs.554-1.5% 469.25/488.25672.5/618
QKX5Wheat LIFFE (November 2015)Holds the correction from overbought.125.45-1.2% 120.75137.25/136.5
CCU5Cocoa NYBOT (September 2015)Holds the uptrend.3346-0.2% 3046/3225/
KCU5Coffee NYBOT (September 2015)Possibly reasserting downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA, towards the late-2013 lows.128.4-0.3% 122.95/123.65?141/137.8
CTZ5Cotton (December 2015)Trades within the broad range/base.65.22-0.0% 63.0770/68.11
LBU5Lumber CME (September 2015)Retreats from resistance at the 200-day MA. Breaks early-July support (281.1) at the 50-day MA.278.2-0.8% 263326/305.5
JOU5Orange Juice (September 2015)Potential base.119.95+0.1% 108.95140.05/129.5
SBV5Sugar NYBOT (October 2015)Small recovery from oversold finds resistance near the 50-day MA. Tests initial support (11.84).11.96-2.5% 11.52/11.8413.9/12.8


Recommend a friend! Tell your friends to mention your name when subscribing to Investors Intelligence, and get a months free access to a service of your choice! For more information, email support@investorsintelligence.com

Also available online at www.investorsintelligence.com. Unauthorized forwarding, copying or reproduction of this report will be treated as a breach of copyright. To subscribe, visit the website or contact Investors Intelligence on +44 (0)20 7352 4001 or email support@investorsintelligence.com.

This report has been produced and compiled by Investors Intelligence, a division of Stockcube Research Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It is distributed by Stockcube and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. From time to time Stockcube and any of its officers or employees may, to the extent permitted by law, have a position or otherwise be interested in any transactions, in any investments (including derivatives) directly or indirectly the subject of this report. Also Stockcube may from time to time perform other services (including acting as adviser or manager) for any company mentioned in this report. The value of securities can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. Derivatives in particular are high risk, high reward investment instruments and an investor may lose some or all of his/her original investment. If you make an investment in securities that are denominated in a currency other than that of GB Pounds you are warned that changes in rates of foreign exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment. The investments referred to herein may not be suitable investments for all persons accessing these pages. You should carefully consider whether all or any of these are suitable investments for you and if in any doubt consult an independent adviser. This report is prepared solely for the information of clients of Stockcube who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Stockcube nor any officer of Stockcube accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct and consequential loss arising from use of this report or its contents. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without the prior express consent of Stockcube.

Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.





Subscribe here: