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Commodities Daily Hotline
8 December 2014                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Coffee breaks Sept support

 

The Coffee instrument failed to maintain the break to a new contract high in October.  The ensuing 'bull trap' decline did find support at the 200-day moving average in the first half of November.  However, the price recently fell beneath that line.  What is more, the September floor at 180.6 gave way on Friday.  Now, there is a danger of further slippage towards the July platform at 166.45.  A sustained clearance of 200 would be required to improve the outlook.

 

Daily Comment:

 

Also in the Softs sector, Lumber is moving in the opposite direction.  The price has pushed northwards as a short-term uptrend develops towards the August/October highs at 359/355.5.  A drop beneath 326; the early-December low would be needed to check the upward tendency.

In the Grains sector, Soybean Meal and Soybeans contracts are bouncing within their trading ranges.  In the case of the former shown here, support has been found near both the long and short-term moving averages again.  The upper boundary is near 400; beneath the May ceiling at 410.3.

The recovery for the latter has yielded to ranging after resistance was found at the 200-day MA at 1126.5 (see 'Gainers' for the chart).

We continue to hold a short trade in the third member of the Soy group, Soybean Oil.  The oversold downtrend has paused after a new contract low.  However, the pattern is clearly dominated by hefty supply evident above current levels.

Also in this sector, the modest profit, 0.13%, is booked on the long held in Corn, as the December contract approaches the end of its lifespan.

In the Meats grouping, the Live Cattle issue has renewed its correction from the overbought November high at 172.75.  The drop under the 50-day MA has broken the short-term uptrend.  The price now points towards mid-October support at 161.  The stoploss on the long trade held here is at 160.

In Energies, the Natural Gas product appears in the 'Gainers' list below, with +4.2%.  The price bounced back over the October low at 3.707 on Friday.  This action promotes hopes for a 'bear trap' recovery over the short term, possibly towards the sideways area near 4.

In the Precious Metals sector, Gold and Silver have produced bearish P&F Breakout signals on the automated scanner.  Both contracts have paused following the upward dynamics ('Trough' Key Day Reversals) drawn on 1 December.  Given the strength of that move, we remain long the yellow metal, in anticipation of renewed gains after the current consolidation phase.

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
NG2Natural Gas NYME (cont)3.823+4.4%
UNGNatural Gas19.34+4.2%
NG1Natural Gas NYME 1st Month Continuation3.802+4.2%
NGF5Natural Gas NYME (January 15)3.802+4.2%
S F5Soybeans CBT (January 15)1036+2.5%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
BDIYBaltic Dry Index982-3.6%
MO1Carbon Emission (Cont)6.66-2.6%
MOZ5Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015)6.76-2.6%
PLF5Platinum NYME (January 15)1219.5-2.1%
PL1Platinum NYME 1st Month Continuation1219.5-2.1%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Commodities Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
20 Nov 2014 Tin HG LME 3 Months LMSNDS03 Long 20290 20200 -0.44% 19250
28 Nov 2014 Palladium NYME (Mar 15) PAH5 Long 809.3 802.7 -0.82% 730
1 Dec 2014 Gold CMX (Feb 15) GCG5 Long 1199 1190.4 -0.72% 1125
1 Dec 2014 Live Cattle CME (LC Feb 2015) LCG5 Long 170.85 164.875 -3.50% 160
Commodities Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Stop Comment
2 Dec 2014 Soybean Oil CBT (January 2015) BOF5 Short 32.2 32.08 +0.37% 34
  • The long in Corn is closed with a small profit.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFERenews the fall to the 2010 floor (247.25). RSI remains low.252.334-0.3% 231.17/247.25271.979/270.013
CLF5Crude Oil NYME (January 15)Pauses after the bounce from the oversold contract low.65.84-1.5% 63.7279.8/77.83
XBF5Gasoline RBOB NYME (Jan15)Extends the fall to a new contract low. RSI oversold.177.34-1.2% /207.37/189.38
HOF5Heating Oil NYME (Jan 15)Extends the fall to a new contract low. RSI oversold.210.78-0.5% /254.3/222.43
NGF5Natural Gas NYME (Jan 15)Failed break under the Oct low (3.707). Potential 'bear trap'.3.802+4.2% 3.6385.027/4.689
QZF5Coal (Jan 15)Holds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. Drifts to a new low.52.82-0.2% /60/54.05
GCG5Gold CMX (Feb 15)Pauses after the dramatic 'Trough' KDR of 1 Dec from prior support at the Nov low.1190.4-1.4% 11321256.2
PAH5Palladium NYME (Mar 15)Breaks s-t range resistance at the early-Oct high; near the 50 and 200-day MAs, leaving a base.802.7+0.1% 733.45911.8
PLF5Platinum NYME (January 15)Recovery slows by the 50-day MA after rebounding from the Nov low.1219.5-2.1% 1177.51350.2/1294.8
SIH5Silver CMX (March 2015)Dramatic 'Trough' KDR from a new contract low slows by the 50-day MA.16.258-1.9% 14.15517.825
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mRetreat from the Aug/Sept ceiling slows.1982-0.6% 1885/19522119.5/2078.75
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mExtends the recovery from oversold.6451-0.3% 6037.56992/6835.5
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsDevelops support around 2000; in the upper half of the s-t range.2038-0.1% 1955.52120.25/2075
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsOverbought s-t uptrend slows beneath the year's earlier top.16800-1.9% 14900/1586819990/17501
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsPauses the rally from the small base.20200-1.0% 19000/2000021468/20620
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsTop heavy but support near the 200-day MA survives.2237-0.0% 2073.25/21662354/2331
FCF5Feeder Cattle CME (January 2015)Reasserts the uptrend, finding support near the 50-day MA, after correcting from overbought.234.875-0.5% 216.525/225.75239.3
LCG5Live Cattle CME (Feb 15)Breaks s-t uptrend support near the 50-day MA.164.875-1.3% 161172.75
LHJ5Lean Hogs CME (Apr 15)Broadly rangebound beneath the Jul peak area.86.95-1.7% 85.7597.7/94.1
C Z4Corn CBT (December 14)Develops uptrend support at the 50-day MA; and the 'Trough' KDR of 20 Nov.381.5+1.5% 330.5/359/362.5458.75/395.75/389
O H5Oats CBT (March 15)Oversold dive pauses above the early-2014 trough.312.75+0.2% 288.25/298.25344.75
IJG5Rapeseed LIFFE (February 15)Ranging beneath resistance around the overbought Oct high; near the 200-day MA.340.25+1.0% 323.5/327.25363/349
S F5Soybeans CBT (January 15)Recovery yields to ranging beneath the 200-day MA.1036+2.5% 912.251126.5
SMF5Soybean Meal CBT (January 2015)Extends the s-t range forming beneath the May peak. The lower boundary; near both the 50 and 200-day MAs, holds.366.4+2.4% 347.9398.9
BOF5Soybean Oil CBT (January 2015)Downtrend slows after a new contract low.32.08+1.2% /35.16/33.82
W H5Wheat CBT (March 2015)Overbought rally pauses.594+0.7% 520.75/536646.75/611.75
QKK5Wheat LIFFE (May 2015)Corrects from overbought.136+0.7% 123.75/129.9145/142.5
CCH5Cocoa NYBOT (March 2015)Pauses the decline from the Sept peak, which had become oversold.2890+0.9% 2652/27802927
KCH5Coffee NYBOT (March 2015)Breaks support at the Sept low (180.6).180.1-1.3% 166.45229.1/201.35
CTH5Cotton (March 2015)Decline shows a loss of momentum.59.64-1.3% /63.82
LBF5Lumber CME (January 2015)Renews the recovery from the 'Trough' KDR of 18 Nov.339+1.6% 315.3/326359/355.5
JOF5Orange Juice (January 2015)Pullback from overbought finds intraday support at 144.25.146-0.1% 121.35/124.1154/149.9
SBH5Sugar NYBOT (March 2015)Holds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. Trades near the contract low.15.14-0.5% /17.2/16.44


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