|Commodities Daily Hotline
10 July 2014 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Tuesday's bounce by the Sugar instrument has been turned back, and the contract price has dropped back out of the late-February/early-July trading band/top formation. The move through 175 has generated a bearish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner, which can be viewed on the II website under 'Signals'. We recently opened a short on the original fall out of the top, and now lower the stoploss to 18.30.
In the Grains sector, Oats has recorded a 3.2% loss for Wednesday's trading. Basically, this contract has been rangebound ever since the early-2014 recovery reached its pinnacle near 360. This week, the price has encountered resistance at the April high, at 352.5; a resistance point within that band, and retraces back to the May/early-July floor near 320/315.
Also in this sector, the Soybean Oil issue has completely retraced the June recovery, and more. Resistance was met at the May ceiling, at 41.40, which is not far from the 200-day moving average. Now, the January floor at 37.72 has yielded, as the price falls to a new contract low. We would point out, however, that the RSI has fallen to oversold levels.
In Energies, Crude and Gasoline have fallen under the shorter-term MAs. The former has dipped under that line on two occasions in recent months, in March and May, without maintaining the moves. At the moment, though, the price points to next chart support at the early-June reaction low at 100.93.
Also in this sector, the Natural Gas instrument remains weak beneath its multi-month top formation. We continue to hold a short trade in the instrument and lower the stoploss to 4.65.
Energy contract make up the bulk of the weighting for the CRB Index, at 39%. The recent pullback in these has played a part in the short-term decline witnessed in the Commodities gauge. That fall is now approaching the March floor near 300; near the 200-day MA. The RSI has also dropped to oversold levels. However, should that support yield, the chart pattern for the year thus far would look rather top heavy.
|XAU||PHLX Gold & Silver Index||103.773||+2.6%|
|LBU4||Lumber CME (September 2014)||339||+2.1%|
|LB2||Lumber CME (cont)||339||+2.1%|
|SM2||Soybean Meal CBT (cont)||406.1||+1.0%|
|MO1||Carbon Emission (Cont)||5.81||+1.0%|
|O 1||Oats CBT 1st Month Continuation||357.75||-8.3%|
|CT1||Cotton 1st Month Continuation||70.55||-5.9%|
|O 2||Oats CBT (cont)||337.75||-3.5%|
|O Z4||Oats CBT (December 14)||329.75||-3.2%|
|BO1||Soybean Oil CBT 1st Month Continuation||37.04||-2.0%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|19 May 2014||Nickel LME 3 Months||LMNIDS03||Long||20100||19525||-2.86%||17400|
|24 Jun 2014||Lean Hogs CME (LH Aug 2014)||LHQ4||Long||131.075||129.6||-1.13%||122.5|
|27 Jun 2014||Cocoa NYBOT (September 2014)||CCU4||Long||3120||3087||-1.06%||2950|
|1 Jul 2014||Platinum NYME (October 14)||PLV4||Long||1496.8||1506.9||+0.67%||1450|
|2 Jul 2014||Aluminium HG LME 3m||LMAHDS03||Long||1923||1939||+0.83%||1850|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|7 Jul 2014||Sugar NYBOT (October 2014)||SBV4||Short||17.51||17.42||+0.51%||18.3|
|7 Jul 2014||Natural Gas NYME (August 14)||NGQ4||Short||4.296||4.17||+2.93%||4.65|
- Stops are lowered on Sugar (Chart of the Day) and Natural Gas shorts.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Tests the lows of the band/top; near the 200-day MA. RSI oversold.||301.187||-0.7%||299.222||321.36/313.271|
|CLQ4||Crude Oil NYME (August 14)||Corrects from overbought. Breaks uptrend support near the 50-day MA.||102.29||-1.1%||97.3/100.93||107.45|
|XBQ4||Gasoline RBOB NYME (August 14)||Corrects from the overbought contract high. Falls under the 50-day MA.||293.77||-1.2%||282.44/288.87||311.93|
|HOQ4||Heating Oil NYME (August 14)||S-t fall becoming oversold near the Aug 2013/Jun 2014 floor, around 285.||287.11||-0.1%||278.03/283.19/284.2||307.83|
|NGQ4||Natural Gas NYME (August 14)||Falls out of the m-t range leaving a top.||4.17||-0.8%||3.921/4.061||4.893/4.608|
|QZQ4||Coal (August 2014)||Retraces the recovery from oversold.||60.25||+0.0%||59.43||66.05/61.7|
|GCQ4||Gold CMX (Aug 14)||Surging and overbought rally slows. Failed nudge over the Apr high (1331).||1324.3||+0.6%||1234.5/1305.04?||1392|
|PAU4||Palladium NYME (Sep 14)||Extends the s-t rally to a new contract high. RSI high.||872.7||-0.0%||796.6/806.35||/|
|PLV4||Platinum NYME (October 14)||Pauses the rally towards the Aug 2013 peak.||1506.9||+0.7%||1422.6||1549.9/1523|
|SIU4||Silver CMX (September 2014)||Overbought rally slows near the Feb/Mar peak area.||21.068||+0.3%||18.65||22.16/21.79|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Extends the advance past the Aug 2013 high (1949) during Tues.||1939||-0.1%||1836/1870||1981|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Overbought rally shows a loss of momentum by prior resistance at the Feb high.||7125||-0.1%||6513.25/6614.75||7460/7220|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||S-t rally yields to ranging below the Jan high.||2195||-0.9%||2151/2170.5||2289/2230.25|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Reasserts the rally from the 'Trough' KDR of 25 June towards the May highs.||19525||-1.3%||15695/17700||21625/20495|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Retraces the recovery from the 'Trough' KDR of 30 Jun.||22280||-1.0%||21850||23849/23070|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Overbought rally finds intraday resistance at 2318.5. Did not maintain the break over the 31 Aug 2011 rally high (2311).||2281||-0.0%||1937/2010||2539.5/2318.5|
|FCQ4||Feeder Cattle CME (August 2014)||Corrects from the overbought contract high.||213.6||-1.1%||204.85/212.15||219.65|
|LCQ4||Live Cattle CME (Aug 14)||Unwinds from the overbought contract high.||150.8||-1.8%||144/149.75||156.5|
|LHQ4||Lean Hogs CME (Aug 14)||Pauses the uptrend.||129.6||-0.2%||123.725/126.075||133.375|
|C Z4||Corn CBT (December 14)||Drops to a new contract low. RSI oversold.||398||-1.5%||/||458.75/447.75|
|O Z4||Oats CBT (December 14)||Extends the range that has been in force for most of the year.||329.75||-3.2%||311.5||361.75|
|IJQ4||Rapeseed LIFFE (August 14)||Oversold decline. Some intraday support arrives at the latest contract low.||333.75||-0.6%||330.75?||364/355.75|
|S X4||Soybeans CBT (November 14)||Oversold fall continues to the floor of the early-2014 base.||1103.75||-1.1%||1088.25||1246.25|
|SMZ4||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2014)||Maintains the oversold fall.||355.2||-0.6%||337.1||398.3|
|BOZ4||Soybean Oil CBT (December 2014)||Falls under the Jan floor to a new contract low. RSI oversold.||37.3||-1.8%||/||43.08/41.4|
|W U4||Wheat CBT (September 2014)||Extends the oversold decline to a new contract low||551.25||-0.9%||/||607/597.5|
|QKX4||Wheat LIFFE (November 2014)||Oversold decline continues to a new contract low.||132||-0.8%||/||144/139.5|
|CCU4||Cocoa NYBOT (September 2014)||Holds the uptrend near the highs.||3087||-0.9%||2861||/|
|KCU4||Coffee NYBOT (September 2014)||Possibly reasserting the downtrend. Probes support at the 200-day MA.||172.9||-0.0%||138.25||220.6/199.75|
|CTZ4||Cotton (December 2014)||Extends the oversold fall towards the June 2012 floor.||69.67||-0.6%||68.25||84.74/78.74|
|LBU4||Lumber CME (September 2014)||Develops s-t range support near 330. Possibly reasserting the s-t rally to the 200-day MA.||339||+2.1%||293/330||354.6/349.3|
|JOU4||Orange Juice (September 2014)||Oversold decline reverses.||151.05||+0.1%||141.5/145.55||167.65|
|SBV4||Sugar NYBOT (October 2014)||Renews the fall from the late-Feb/early-Jul top.||17.42||-1.5%||16.36||18.91/17.78?|
Copyright 2014 by Stockcube Research Ltd.