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Commodities Daily Hotline
21 April 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Natural Gas reasserts downtrend


In the Energy sector, the Natural Gas instrument has posted a 3.8% loss.  While the Oil contracts have recently launched recovery rallies, with Crude even breaking above a short-term base, Natural Gas has reasserted the downtrend.  The price points to the mid-April, and contract, low at 2.521.  A sustained break over the 50-day moving average is needed to interrupt the downward tendency.  That line is currently located near 2.80.

Daily Comment:


Also in the Energy grouping, the Carbon Emission issue appears on the 'Gainers' list with +4.2% for Monday's session.  The price has pushed up to the highs of the short-term range, near 7.25.  The stoploss on the short held in the item is at 7.30.

In the Precious Metals sector, Silver seems to be underperforming this month.  On Monday, the price renewed the decline from resistance at the 200-day moving average, heading back to the March floor at 15.26.  Should that yield, there is a stronger platform at 14.705; the upward dynamic plotted on 1 December 2014.

In Industrial Metals, Zinc's overbought recovery has faltered at 2248.  Resistance has been encountered near the December high (2257.5).  It will be interesting to see if former resistance at the mid-January/February ceiling near 2150; close to the longer-term MA will convert into support.

In Meats, Cattle contracts continued to slide yesterday.  The stoploss (3.41%) on the long held in Live Cattle was activated.

We continue to hold a short in Lean Hogs in this sector, and lower the stop to 82.  The price falls from downtrend resistance at the shorter-term MA towards the March low at 72.05.

In Grains, the Soybean Meal instrument gained 1.1% yesterday.  We hold onto the short trade, though, as the overall chart pattern remains top heavy, which should dampen bullish enthusiasm, and ultimately lead to further slippage towards the October floor at 292.3.

In Softs, the recovery from oversold by Sugar has stalled.  Resistance is encountered at 13.34; at the 50-day MA.  A clearance of that line would be required to remove the risk of an additional slide back to the contract low at 12.03.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
MO1Carbon Emission (Cont)7.13+4.2%
MOZ5Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015)7.17+4.2%
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 Months12800+2.0%
W 2Wheat CBT (cont)498.25+1.8%
SMK5Soybean Meal CBT (May 2015)318.5+1.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
SBN5Sugar NYBOT (July 2015)12.69-4.2%
SB1Sugar NYBOT 1st Month Continuation12.69-4.2%
SB2Sugar NYBOT (cont)12.67-3.9%
NG2Natural Gas NYME (cont)2.578-3.8%
NGM5Natural Gas NYME (June 15)2.578-3.8%
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Commodities Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
17 Apr 2015 Crude Oil NYME (June 2015) CLM5 Long 56.71 57.88 +2.06% 45
Commodities Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
5 Mar 2015 Wheat CBT (May 2015) W K5 Short 489.25 498.75 -1.94% 550
12 Mar 2015 Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015) MOZ5 Short 6.6 7.17 -8.64% 7.3
17 Mar 2015 Corn CBT (May 15) C K5 Short 373.75 378 -1.14% 401
10 Apr 2015 Soybean Meal CBT (May 2015) SMK5 Short 309.2 318.5 -3.01% 340
15 Apr 2015 Lean Hogs CME (LH Jun 2015) LHM5 Short 75.475 75.525 -0.07% 82
  • The stoploss is hit on long Live Cattle.
  • The stop is lowered on short Lean Hogs.


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFES-t uptrend emerges from the oversold Mar low towards the Feb ceiling. Potential base.222.72-0.5% 200.16/206.813242.602/229.571
CLM5Crude Oil NYME (June 15)Consolidates the base breakout.57.88+1.0% 45.9370.25/60.31
XBM5Gasoline RBOB NYME (June15)Pushes up to the Feb, and base, highs.193.68+0.1% 153.1/167.99210.5/196.17
HOM5Heating Oil NYME (June 15)Rallies to the Feb, and base, highs.188.18-0.2% 156.27/165.34194.91/193.5
NGM5Natural Gas NYME (June 15)Reasserts the downtrend.2.578-3.8% 2.5212.982/2.765
QZM5Coal (June 15)Retraces from the Feb/Mar ceiling. RSI oversold.48.88-0.5% 46.4252.33
GCM5Gold CMX (Jun 15)Mar recovery yields to ranging.1193.7-0.8% 1133.7/1178.21309/1224.5
PAM5Palladium NYME (Jun 15)Counter move from the oversold contract low yields to ranging near 18 Mar resistance (788.9).772.4-1.3% 723833.6/788.9
PLN5Platinum NYME (July 15)Recovery slows.1148.8-1.6% 1088.8/1114.71197.1
SIK5Silver CMX (May 2015)Retraces the Mar recovery.15.889-2.1% 14.705/15.2618.535/17.405
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mRecovery struggles at 1844; beneath the 200-day MA.1810-0.3% 1704.25/1744.851898/1844
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mRetests support near the prior base highs in the range forming beneath the 200-day MA.5980-1.3% 5339.5/5560.56532.5/6294.5
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsOverbought rally slows on the approach to the Nov high (2075).2019-0.6% 1792/19552120.25/2075
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsPauses the downtrend within the 2008/2009 base area.12800+2.0% 8850/1220514380/13190
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsOversold and accelerated (trend-ending feature) fall finds intraday support at 13600.14550-2.0% 1190018310/17651
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsOverbought recovery falters near the Dec high.2178-1.6% 1981/2173.52318.25/2257.5
FCK5Feeder Cattle CME (May 2015)Downtrend emerges from the early-Apr high.205.15-1.6% 193.9/196.9220.875/214.15
LCM5Live Cattle CME (Jun 15)Breaks support near the 50 and 200-day MAs. Falls back into this year's earlier small base.145.875-2.1% 142.6/144.05154.675/152.425
LHM5Lean Hogs CME (Jun 15)Recovery from oversold falters at downtrend resistance from the 50-day MA.75.525-1.0% 72.0585.475/79.75
C K5Corn CBT (May 15)Sharp fall reaffirms sideways resistance at 400. Support at the Mar floor (367) holds.378-0.5% 352.25/367425.25/400
O N5Oats CBT (July 15)Counter rally from oversold slows beneath downtrend resistance from the 50-day MA.266.75-0.8% 257.75301.25/292
IJK5Rapeseed LIFFE (May 15)Finds intraday support at 368. Possibly reasserting the uptrend to the 2014 high (383.5).375.75+0.5% 358.25/362383.5/379.25
S K5Soybeans CBT (May 15)Moves back over the Mar low (951.25). 'Bear trap' recovery follows.977.5+0.9% 928.75/944.5?1039/999
SMK5Soybean Meal CBT (May 2015)Pauses the s-t fall but top heavy.318.5+1.1% 292.3351.7/333.8
BOK5Soybean Oil CBT (May 2015)Ranging above the Jan low.31.59+0.2% 29.5633.5/31.69
W K5Wheat CBT (May 2015)Falls from resistance at the sideways area along 550 towards the Mar floor.498.75+0.9% 478.25607.5/547.25
QKK5Wheat LIFFE (May 2015)Extends the decline towards the Sept floor.114.55-0.7% 112.75148/127.25
CCN5Cocoa NYBOT (July 2015)Recovery from the Feb low falters as resistance is found at the 200-day MA.2779-2.1% 26712888
KCN5Coffee NYBOT (July 2015)Range forms beneath resistance at the 50-day MA.138.70.00% 129.65/132175.15/150
CTN5Cotton (July 2015)Failed break over the Feb high (66.54) leads to a 'bull trap' reaction.63.04-0.4% 60.566.7
LBN5Lumber CME (July 2015)Holds the decline near the contract low. RSI oversold.248.4+0.2% /289/255.7
JON5Orange Juice (July 2015)Holds the s-t fall to Mar support.113.75-1.1% 106.7129.15
SBN5Sugar NYBOT (July 2015)Recovery from oversold stalls near the 50-day MA.12.69-4.2% 12.0315.38/13.34

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