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Commodities Daily Hotline
25 September 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Hogs renew base breakout


The Lean Hogs instrument encountered firm support at the top side of the mid-June/mid-September base formation during Thursday's session.  The price is now probing potential resistance from the 200-day Moving Average.  We watch to buy in the event of a sustained breakout, currently requiring a move through 66.40, for the upside scope towards the 70 region. 

Daily Comment:


In the Grains sector, Wheat instruments have paused their recovery.  In the case of the LIFFE contract resistance is apparently being offered by the 50-day Moving Average, sending the price back under the previous recovery high.  This could present 'bull trap' scope back towards the floor near 110.  We continue to hold a short trade in the issue.

Also in this grouping, the Soybean Oil contract has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner.  This follows Thursday's move through 26.8.  The Candlestick chart printed here shows the price stabilizing near the oversold August floor.  However, a breach of the resistance at 28.3; near the 50-day MA, would be needed to provide further proof of basing.

In Softs, the Orange Juice contract suffered a further slide.  However, as pointed out in yesterday's report, acceleration is a trend-ending feature; and the RSI is oversold.  The 'thin lower tail' on the last candle indicates that intraday support arrived at the new contract low, 105.95.  A fall under that level would counteract the current prospect for some further recovery over the short term.

Also in this grouping, the NYBOT Coffee instrument fell to a new contract low, at 14.55, before staging a small bounce.  That action triggered the profitable stop on the short trade, making 2.94%. 

In Precious Metals, the Gold issue has renewed the short-term rally towards the late-August high (1169.8).  Note that that barrier is reinforced by the presence of the 200-day MA.  However, in the event of a breakout, the next important chart target is the June high at 1207.3.  A short while ago, this contract was changing hands at 1142.3 in the out of hours session.

The Platinum instrument was also trading down.  At 946.6, the price is back under the prior floor around 950, and could be reasserting the downward tendency following yesterday's small bounce.  We remain short.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
XAUPHLX Gold & Silver Index47.8896+7.4%
SBH6Sugar NYBOT (March 2016)11.86+2.7%
SB2Sugar NYBOT (cont)11.86+2.7%
PL2Platinum NYME (cont)955.8+2.6%
BO1Soybean Oil CBT 1st Month Continuation26.98+2.5%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
FC2Feeder Cattle CME (cont)177.1-2.9%
KWZ5Kansas City Wheat (KCB) December 15490-2.3%
W 2Wheat CBT (cont)504.25-2.1%
JN1Rubber TCM 1st Month Continuation155.4-2.0%
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Commodities Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
9 Sep 2015 Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015) MOZ5 Long 8.28 8.01 -3.26% 7.25
Commodities Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
26 Aug 2015 Silver CMX (December 2015) SIZ5 Short 14.39 15.13 -5.14% 16
4 Sep 2015 Lead LME 3 Months LMPBDS03 Short 1665 1697 -1.92% 1800
17 Sep 2015 Wheat LIFFE (November 2015) QKX5 Short 110.5 113.35 -2.58% 119
18 Sep 2015 Cotton (December 2015) CTZ5 Short 60.55 60.31 +0.40% 65.5
18 Sep 2015 Natural Gas NYME (November 15) NGX5 Short 2.676 2.674 +0.07% 2.95
18 Sep 2015 Sugar NYBOT (March 2016) SBH6 Short 11.7 11.86 -1.37% 13
22 Sep 2015 Platinum NYME (January 16) PLF6 Short 937.3 955.1 -1.90% 1050
23 Sep 2015 Lumber CME (November 2015) LBX5 Short 222 216.9 +2.30% 265
  • The profitable stop was hit on short Coffee.
  • We watch to buy Hogs (Chart of the Day).


Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFESurging recovery from oversold yields to ranging beneath initial resistance; near the 50-day MA.193.581+0.6% 174.35/185.132206.578/202.452
CLX5Crude Oil NYME (November 15)Surging late-Aug recovery from oversold yields to ranging.44.91+1.0% 38.5155.06/50.46
XBX5Gasoline RBOB NYME (November15)Intraday resistance arrives at 143.41; near the 50-day MA.135.13-1.0% 119.66/129.23?166.84/148.85
HOX5Heating Oil NYME (November 15)Drift from the late-Aug high slows slightly.154.4+1.1% 141.17172.16
NGX5Natural Gas NYME (November 15)Intraday support is noted at the latest contract low.2.674+1.4% 2.592?3.118/2.809
QZX5Coal (November 15)Retreats from the 50-day MA towards the Jun floor.42.23+0.0% 41.7547.55/43.08
GCZ5Gold CMX (Dec 15)Renews the s-t rally towards the late-Aug high; near the 200-day MA.1153.8+2.0% 1073.7/1097.71169.8
PAZ5Palladium NYME (Dec 15)Recovery from oversold cracks resistance near the 50-day MA.656.45+1.7% 519.2/568702.95/667.3
PLF6Platinum NYME (January 16)Pauses the fall from the 50-day MA. Potential 'bear trap' under the prior lows near 950.955.1+2.5% 926.2?1039
SIZ5Silver CMX (December 2015)Possibly reasserting the recovery towards the Aug high.15.13+2.3% 13.95/14.2415.95/15.77/15.435
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mRetraces the recovery from oversold.1579+0.1% 1385/15061669/1664.75
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mRetraces the recovery.5051-0.1% 4710/48555722.5/5440.5
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsFinds intraday resistance at 1786 and fails to maintain the break over the 50-day MA.1697-0.1% 1535/1618.51881
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsRecovery from oversold; and the 2008/2009 base lows falters beneath downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.9900+1.5% 8850/921511980/11275
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsPotential base extension.15200+1.8% 13365/1482516600
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsOversold retreat from downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA slows.1677+1.6% 1577/1616?1905.5/1849
FCX5Feeder Cattle CME (November 2015)Extends the oversold fall.177.1-1.3% /198.4
LCZ5Live Cattle CME (Dec 15)Extends the decline. RSI oversold again.134-1.3% /146.725
LHZ5Lean Hogs CME (Dec 15)Renews the base breakout. Rallies to potential resistance at the 200-day MA.65.825+2.5% 57.05/61.12570.8
C Z5Corn CBT (December 15)Potentially basing beneath the Aug high (402); and 200-day MA.381.5-0.5% 357.5454.25/402
O Z5Oats CBT (December 15)Counter rally from the oversold contract low pauses by the 50-day MA. Possibly reasserting the downtrend.226.25-1.6% 215253/240
IJX5Rapeseed LIFFE (November 15)Reasserts the recovery from the oversold and accelerated low. Points to resistance near the 370 sideways area; close to the 50 and 200-day MAs.364.25-0.2% 329.5/339.25387.5/368
S X5Soybeans CBT (November 15)Retraces the small recovery back towards the contract low.868+0.5% 853.25996.5/928.5/894.5
SMZ5Soybean Meal CBT (December 2015)Falls from the s-t sideways area around 320. Extends the downtrend to the small mid-May/mid-June base area.301.9-0.0% 286344/321
BOZ5Soybean Oil CBT (December 2015)Steadies near the oversold Aug low.27.18+2.4% 25.731.14/28.3
W Z5Wheat CBT (December 2015)Pauses the recovery from the oversold contract low.497.25-2.0% 463/480533.25/503.25
QKX5Wheat LIFFE (November 2015)Recovery pauses near the 50-day Ma.113.35-1.6% 109.5122/116.45
CCZ5Cocoa NYBOT (December 2015)Rally slows by the July peak.3293-0.7% 2989/32223375
KCZ5Coffee NYBOT (December 2015)Extends the downtrend to a new contract low, where some intraday support arrives.118.3+1.8% 14.55?144.4/126.85
CTZ5Cotton (December 2015)Oversold fall slows near thecontract low.60.31+0.6% /67/64.2
LBX5Lumber CME (November 2015)Falls from the 50-day MA to a new contract low.216.9-0.2% /254.9/249.9
JOX5Orange Juice (November 2015)Accelerated (trend-ending feature) and oversold decline finds intraday support at the new contract low, at 105.95141.7/134.75
SBH6Sugar NYBOT (March 2016)Steadier near the oversold Aug low. Maintains downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA again.11.86+2.7% 11.2814.05/12.55

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