|Commodities Daily Hotline
17 August 2015 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
The Orange Juice instrument is ranging this month after the rally from the medium-term base became overbought. This consolidation phase is likely to be resolved to the upside and we watch to buy on a break over the early-August high at 134.5. The initial target is 140, with the possibility of a retest of the January high at 146.65 after that.
Also in the Softs sector, Cotton's surging recovery from a new contract low is fast approaching prior resistance near 68. Given the upward dynamic from the new floor at 61.2, one would expect bulls to ultimately push higher. We watch events with a view to purchasing at some point.
In Grains, Corn has failed to maintain the break under the October-June floor. A drop beneath the new low at 357.5 would be required to offset scope for an additional 'bear trap' recovery towards resistance at the 50 and 200-day MAs near 400.
US Wheat issues have also steadied in recent sessions. The Kansas City Wheat instrument shown here has bounced from the recent oversold contract low towards initial resistance at 511.25.
On the other hand, the Rapeseed chart shows the price extending the short-term downtrend. That said, there is potential support nearby from former resistance at the March/April highs at 367; near the 200-day MA.
In the Industrial Metals sector, Zinc has paused its decline, which had become oversold. Also, support has been encountered at 1730, which is near the 2011 floor at 1718.5. A breach of that platform would be needed to offset scope for some further recovery.
The CRB Index has dipped under 2008 support near 200. The RSI remains close to oversold levels, so a counter move upwards is possible over the short term. This 15-year chart displays next important support to be at the January 2002 floor at 143.97.
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||15450||+3.0%|
|SBV5||Sugar NYBOT (October 2015)||10.68||+1.8%|
|LH1||Lean Hogs CME 1st Month Continuation||65.325||-17.0%|
|S 1||Soybeans CBT 1st Month Continuation||925.25||-6.8%|
|SM1||Soybean Meal CBT 1st Month Continuation||325.2||-5.5%|
|LH2||Lean Hogs CME (cont)||61.95||-4.8%|
|SM2||Soybean Meal CBT (cont)||317||-4.2%|
- We watch to buy Cotton and OJ (Chart of the Day).
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Renews the decline towards important support at the Jan 2002 floor (143.97).||197.969||+0.1%||143.97/174.35/194.4||206.578/202.452|
|CLU5||Crude Oil NYME (September 15)||new lows||42.5||+0.6%||/||64.45/54.35|
|XBU5||Gasoline RBOB NYME (September15)||Retraces the recent rally from oversold.||168.69||-1.6%||160.48||208.66/177.25|
|HOU5||Heating Oil NYME (September 15)||holds at recent lows||155.79||-0.7%||/||207.97/177.64|
|NGU5||Natural Gas NYME (September 15)||Ranging above the Apr-Jun floor in potential base extension phase.||2.801||+0.5%||2.589||3.163|
|QZU5||Coal (September 15)||Holds at 50-day MA.||42.88||0.00%||41.03||51.6|
|GCV5||Gold CMX (Oct 15)||Rally from the oversold contract low slows.||1112.4||-0.3%||1072.8||1205.5|
|PAU5||Palladium NYME (Sep 15)||attempts to rally from recent lows||617.5||+0.3%||595||667.6/641.5|
|PLV5||Platinum NYME (October 15)||begins to correct from recent lows||994||-0.1%||946.3||1097.2/1041.4|
|SIU5||Silver CMX (September 2015)||Counter move from oversold stalls.||15.213||-1.2%||14.33||15.9/15.585|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Holds the decline towards the important 2009 floor (1279).||1580.5||+0.4%||1279/1350/1385||1669/1625|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Holds the downtrend.||5165||-0.4%||4710/5000?||5722.5/5398|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Finds support at 1,700||1750||+0.5%||1535/1676.5||2009/1881|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Holds the downtrend.||10600||+1.4%||8850||11980/11275|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Possibly consolidating the July recovery.||15450||+3.0%||13365/14600||16600|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Pauses the oversold fall. Finds support near the Oct 2011 floor (1718.5).||1829||-0.1%||1718.5/1730||2191/2117.5|
|FCU5||Feeder Cattle CME (September 2015)||rallies into short term downtrend at 212||209.525||-0.4%||196.025/205.15||219.3/214.975|
|LCV5||Live Cattle CME (Oct 15)||encounters 50/200-day resistance||146.85||-0.7%||141.275||156.15|
|LHV5||Lean Hogs CME (Oct 15)||Potential base extension.||65.325||+0.4%||59.45||74.45/67.7|
|C Z5||Corn CBT (December 15)||'Bear trap' recovery follows failed break under the Oct-June floor.||375.5||+0.1%||357.5||402|
|O Z5||Oats CBT (December 15)||Ranging near the oversold Jul low.||239.5||0.00%||233.5||283.5/253|
|IJX5||Rapeseed LIFFE (November 15)||S-t downtrend forms.||371.25||-1.1%||329.5||397.5/387.5|
|S X5||Soybeans CBT (November 15)||Dives to the June floor, which holds.||916.5||-1.1%||895.75||1045/996.5|
|SMZ5||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2015)||Crashes out of the s-t top.||314.2||-1.8%||286||357.7/344|
|BOZ5||Soybean Oil CBT (December 2015)||Fall becomes oversold.||29.4||+0.3%||/||32.73/31.14|
|W U5||Wheat CBT (September 2015)||Fall from the 50-day MA reverses, finding support near the contract lows.||506.5||+0.6%||469.25||618/530|
|QKX5||Wheat LIFFE (November 2015)||reverses rally from may lows||117.85||-0.3%||120.75/122?||136.5/125.5|
|CCU5||Cocoa NYBOT (September 2015)||tests support at its 200-day MA||3039||-0.1%||3046||3386|
|KCU5||Coffee NYBOT (September 2015)||breaks its 50-day MA||137.5||+0.3%||/||137.8/132.5|
|CTZ5||Cotton (December 2015)||Surging recovery from the bottom of the range.||65.95||+0.2%||61.2||68.11|
|LBU5||Lumber CME (September 2015)||Oversold retreat from resistance at the 200-day MA slows.||252.7||-1.3%||241.8||305.5/275|
|JOU5||Orange Juice (September 2015)||Overbought rally yields to ranging.||132.05||+0.8%||108.95/115.8||140.05/134.5|
|SBV5||Sugar NYBOT (October 2015)||Oversold fall shows a minor loss of momentum.||10.68||+1.8%||/||13.9/12.8|
Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.