|Commodities Daily Hotline
20 October 2014 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
The Coffee instrument has recorded a 3% loss for Friday's session. The previous rally from the September floor near 180; and the 200-day moving average, had become overbought. The price appears to be correcting that condition. In the process, a failed break over the April ceiling has occurred, giving rise to fears for a further 'bull trap' pullback over the short term too. Having said that, former resistance from the August/September ceiling near 210 could feasibly convert into support. Otherwise, next potential support is near the 50-day MA, around 200.
Also in the Softs sector, Cotton has continued to drift away from the 50-day moving average. A sustained break over the 65 region is required to lend a basing aspect to the pattern, and remove the risk that the downtrend is reasserting.
In contrast, the Rubber instrument has cleared resistance at the 50-day MA and sideways trading along 180. That action has triggered the opening of a long trade (see Friday's hotline). The stop is placed at 160 for the time being.
In the Grains sector, the recovery from the oversold contract low, at 904, by Soybeans is showing some loss of momentum on the approach to downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. It is still too early to tell whether the downward tendency has reasserted, though a clearance of that line is needed to remove that danger.
Also in this sector, Oats could be developing support mid-range, around the 340 mark; near the shorter-term MA. We will consider purchasing a breakout, as a move through 360 would complete a large base that could promote further gains towards the 380 region.
Some improvement was noted in the Industrial Metals sector.
Aluminium, for example, gained 3.1% to reassert the recovery move from the oversold early-October low. One observes that support along the lateral region near 1900 proved good last week. The 'Bull' P&F Breakout signal at 1960 is noted. However, we prefer to stay on the sidelines, as there is potential resistance near current levels from supply and the 50-day MA.
The Copper instrument has bounced from the mid-April low resulting in a failed break under the sideways trading around 6600. This could augur a 'bear trap' recovery attempt over the short term, possibly towards downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA near 6800.
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||1972||+3.1%|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||2029||+2.7%|
|KCZ4||Coffee NYBOT (December 2014)||210.65||-3.0%|
|KC1||Coffee NYBOT 1st Month Continuation||210.65||-3.0%|
|KC2||Coffee NYBOT (cont)||214.6||-2.9%|
|XAU||PHLX Gold & Silver Index||77.0752||-2.8%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|10 Oct 2014||Cocoa NYBOT (December 2014)||CCZ4||Long||3157||3118||-1.24%||2980|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|10 Oct 2014||Corn CBT (December 14)||C Z4||Short||334||348||-4.19%||363|
|15 Oct 2014||Nickel LME 3 Months||LMNIDS03||Short||15830||15700||+0.82%||18000|
- A long is opened in Rubber.
- We watch to buy Oats.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Oversold downtrend towards the 2012 platform finds intraday support at 269.621.||272.636||-0.0%||266.78||283.234/280.91|
|CLZ4||Crude Oil NYME (December 14)||Oversold decline shows a loss of momentum.||82.06||+0.1%||72.5/78.47||93.82|
|XBZ4||Gasoline RBOB NYME (Dec14)||Oversold fall pauses near the mid-2012 low.||216.46||+0.7%||208.93||248.83|
|HOZ4||Heating Oil NYME (Dec 14)||Oversold decline shows a loss of impetus.||248.99||+1.1%||241.56?||272.49|
|NGZ4||Natural Gas NYME (Dec 14)||Dips under the late-Jul/mid-Oct range to question the base theory.||3.863||-0.6%||3.796||4.252|
|QZZ4||Coal (Dec 14)||Holds the oversold fall.||51.65||-0.4%||/||62/60.4/60.02|
|GCZ4||Gold CMX (Dec 14)||'Bear trap' rebound from oversold slows slightly near the 50-day MA.||1239||-0.2%||1183.3||1297.6|
|PAZ4||Palladium NYME (Dec 14)||Failed dip under the early-Oct low (735). 'Bear trap' recovery follows.||756.7||+1.4%||699.1/729.95||825.45/812.75|
|PLF5||Platinum NYME (January 15)||Recovery from the oversold and accelerated contract low struggles.||1261.5||+0.8%||1186.5||1350.2/1294.8|
|SIZ4||Silver CMX (December 2014)||Oversold fall towards the Feb 2010 low pauses.||17.331||-0.6%||15.73/16.64||19.95/18.885|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Reasserts the recovery from oversold after developing further support near sideways trading around 1900.||1972||+3.1%||1836/1885||2184/2119.5|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Failed break under sideways trading along 6600. Potential 'bear trap' recovery scope towards downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||6639||+1.3%||6321/6513.25||6992/6825|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Counter move from oversold. Pauses the decline to the 2013 floor.||2029||+2.7%||1938/1961.5||2148/2120.25|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Oversold downtrend from the m-t top shows a minor loss of momentum.||15700||+1.5%||14830||17501/16999|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Oversold decline towards the small mid-2013 base area slows slightly.||19305||+0.3%||18809||21468/20620|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Failed break under Sept support. Potential top extension.||2249||+1.3%||2073.25/2173||2416/2354|
|FCX4||Feeder Cattle CME (November 2014)||Pauses the correction from the overbought contract high with a 'Trough' KDR. Potentially reasserting the uptrend.||234.15||-1.3%||222.4/231.75||245.75|
|LCZ4||Live Cattle CME (Dec 14)||Pauses the correction from the overbought contract high. Possibly reasserting the uptrend.||165.05||-0.2%||147.225/157.45||169.6|
|LHZ4||Lean Hogs CME (Dec 14)||Breaks s-t range support at the 200-day MA. Probes the Aug trough between 90-85, approx.||90.575||+0.3%||84.275||105.5/99|
|C Z4||Corn CBT (December 14)||Recovery from the oversold contract low slows.||348||-1.2%||318.25/330.5||381|
|O Z4||Oats CBT (December 14)||Extends the broad band.||347.75||+0.2%||311.5/326||379.25/361.75|
|IJX4||Rapeseed LIFFE (November 14)||S-t rally slows near the late-Jul high Potential base extension.||322||-0.2%||300.5/308.75||359.75/335.5|
|S X4||Soybeans CBT (November 14)||Recovery from the oversold contract low slows near downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||951.75||-1.5%||904||999.75|
|SMZ4||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2014)||Extends the recovery from oversold to the Jul/early-Sept trading band starting near 340, where intraday resistance is noted.||330.5||-1.2%||288.8/295.1||398.3/366.6/340?|
|BOZ4||Soybean Oil CBT (December 2014)||Ranging between the 50-day MA and Sept floor. Potential base.||32.02||-1.1%||31.52||37.36/33.83|
|W Z4||Wheat CBT (December 2014)||Recovery from oversold probes downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||516||-0.2%||466.25||591/579.25|
|QKX4||Wheat LIFFE (November 2014)||Reasserts the counter move from oversold. Retests the downtrend channel at the 50-day MA.||116.45||-0.5%||106.6/111||124/120/117|
|CCZ4||Cocoa NYBOT (December 2014)||Ranging above support at the Sept low and 200-day MA.||3118||+1.0%||2874/3019||3399/3208|
|KCZ4||Coffee NYBOT (December 2014)||Corrects the overbought advance.||210.65||-3.0%||176.4||243/225.5|
|CTZ4||Cotton (December 2014)||Recovery from the contract low pauses by the 50-day MA.||63||-0.9%||60.83||68.48/65.65|
|LBX4||Lumber CME (November 2014)||Finds resistance by the Aug high. Retraces towards the Sept floor.||334.6||-0.1%||318.2/325||364.5/354.3|
|JOX4||Orange Juice (November 2014)||Pauses the oversold decline.||135||-0.4%||125.9/132.45||153.4/145.5|
|SBH5||Sugar NYBOT (March 2015)||Recovery finds intraday resistance at 17.2. Falls back under the 50-day MA.||16.62||-0.3%||15.51/15.89||17.87/17.2|
Copyright 2014 by Stockcube Research Ltd.