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Commodities Daily Hotline
17 February 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Rubber unwinds from overbought

 

The Rubber instrument has registered a 0.8% loss for Monday's session.  The rally from the wide base had recent become overbought and a corrective phase has begun.  In the event of a deeper pullback, it will be interesting to see whether that base, which is mostly evident beneath the round 200 level, will offer support.  Both the 50 and 200-day moving averages are located nearby and could also offer a lift.  We watch developments with a view to buying should that turn out to be the case.

 

Daily Comment:

 

The Carbon Emission issue did extend its short-term rally yesterday.  However, intraday resistance arrived at the high, at 7.90, resulting in a good portion of the gains retraced by the end of trading.  The RSI is on the high side, indicating the onset of an overbought condition.  Therefore, in order to maximize profits, the stop is tightened again, to 7.60 (just under Monday's low).

Also in the Energy sector, Natural Gas appears in the 'Gainers' list with +1.7%.  The recovery from the contract low near 2.60 is reasserted, though downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA will have to be overcome to further improve the outlook.

In contrast, the Crude Oil contract has recorded a 1.1% loss.  The chart shows the price is still penned in by the shorter-term MA line.  Still, there is a potential base under construction and we will consider buying in the event of a breakout (above the 50-day MA).

In the Grains sector, the short-term rally by the Rapeseed issue displays a loss of momentum near the January ceiling near 360.  That said, however, in the absence of a more forceful down move, to reconfirm that barrier, a breakout before long cannot be ruled out.  When/if that happens, the next chart target is last June's high at 365.25.

The sector's outperformer is the White Maize instrument.  In spite of the extremely overbought RSI indicator, the price just keeps on surging up to new contract highs, though, in view of the clearly stretched out rally, this is not the time to open new longs.

 

 

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
WZ2White Maize SAFEX (cont)2875+4.4%
WZH5White Maize SAFEX (March 04)2898+4.3%
NG1Natural Gas NYME 1st Month Continuation2.878+2.6%
NG2Natural Gas NYME (cont)2.875+2.2%
NGJ5Natural Gas NYME (April 15)2.86+1.7%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
ALUMAluminium3.223-1.1%
CLJ5Crude Oil NYME (April 2015)53.08-1.1%
NICKNickel15.31-0.9%
JN1Rubber TCM 1st Month Continuation218.2-0.8%
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 Months1835.5-0.8%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Commodities Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
13 Jan 2015 Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015) MOZ5 Long 7.38 7.72 +4.61% 7.6
20 Jan 2015 Sugar NYBOT (March 2015) SBH5 Long 15.83 14.88 -6.00% 14
Commodities Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
29 Jan 2015 Coffee NYBOT (March 2015) KCH5 Short 160 163.2 -2.00% 190
  • The stop is tightened again on long Carbon Emission.
  • We watch to buy Crude and Rubber (Chart of the Day).

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFEReasserts the recovery from oversold. Points to resistance from the 50-day MA.229.19+1.4% 211.269/219.703242.602
CLJ5Crude Oil NYME (April 15)Reasserts the recovery to resistance at the 50-day MA. Possibly base.53.08-1.1% 44.37/48.259.53/54.24
XBJ5Gasoline RBOB NYME (Apr15)Edges higher; extending the recovery.185.08-0.4% 149.64/169.99242.3
HOJ5Heating Oil NYME (Apr 15)Recovery from oversold edges over mid-Dec resistance (193.44) during Mon.190.66-0.8% 154.8/171.32252.79/238.24
NGJ5Natural Gas NYME (Apr 15)Small recovery from the contract low points to downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.2.86+1.7% 2.5893.194
QZJ5Coal (Apr 15)Recovery slows near the 50-day MA.50.380.00% 46.4255.38
GCJ5Gold CMX (Apr 15)Holds the correction from overbought within the prior base.1227.1+0.5% 1168.31321.1/1308.8
PAH5Palladium NYME (Mar 15)Firms within the potential base.794.45+2.7% 733.45/746911.8/823
PLJ5Platinum NYME (April 15)Potential base extension.1207.5+0.6% 1176.31351.6/1296.2
SIH5Silver CMX (March 2015)Correction from overbought slows within the prior base.17.294+3.0% 14.155/15.5118.93/18.505
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mRecovery from oversold finds resistance near the sideways area along 1900.1825-0.6% 1754.75/18022008/1898
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mReasserts the recovery from oversold to point back to initial resistance.5749+0.2% 4685/5339.56532.5/5805
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsRetreat from resistance at the 50-day MA towards the Jan low slows.1835.5-0.8% 1535/17422075/1918
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsRecovery from 14000 floor finds resistance at the 50-day MA.14600-0.3% 13650/1394517200/15677
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsOversold and accelerated s-t fall halts above the 2011/2012 platform (17000).18125-0.8% 17000/1744520620/20100
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsRecovery from oversold slows by downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.2150.5-0.0% 2005.75/20682257.5/2214
FCH5Feeder Cattle CME (March 2015)Pauses the downtrend.203.85+1.8% 187.475/193208.375/205?
LCJ5Live Cattle CME (Apr 15)Firms in s-t range forming below sideways trading around 155.153.225+1.4% 139.55/146.65166/155?
LHJ5Lean Hogs CME (Apr 15)Oversold downtrend slows.66.025+2.4% /78.85/75.325
C H5Corn CBT (March 15)Small recovery slows by 21 Jan high (392.5).387.25+1.1% 330.5/365.75417/392.5
O H5Oats CBT (March 15)Downtrend possibly starting to level out.278.5+1.9% 262320/296/291
IJK5Rapeseed LIFFE (May 15)S-t rally slows by the Jan ceiling near 360.356.75-0.1% 339.5362.75/360.5
S H5Soybeans CBT (March 15)Ranging quietly beneath resistance at the psychological 1000 level; near supply from the late-Oct/mid-Jan range.990.5+0.7% 920.75/9551089.75/1000?
SMH5Soybean Meal CBT (March 2015)Continues to find resistance near the late-Oct/mid-Jan range and 50-day MA.332.3+0.5% 292.1/321368.1/344.7
BOH5Soybean Oil CBT (March 2015)Renews the recovery from oversold into supply from the m-t band.32.4+1.2% 29.32/31.134
W H5Wheat CBT (March 2015)Reasserts the recovery from oversold.533+2.3% 480/492.25603.5/544.5
QKK5Wheat LIFFE (May 2015)Downtrend shows a loss of momentum.125.4+0.6% 117.8/122.5150.25/148
CCH5Cocoa NYBOT (March 2015)Recovery from oversold approaches the Dec/Jan ceiling.2969+0.5% 2610/26693171/3016
KCH5Coffee NYBOT (March 2015)Chart pattern is dominated by the hefty 2014 top.163.2-0.8% 143.25/158.4184.9/169.9
CTH5Cotton (March 2015)Holds the 'bear trap' recovery to the Oct/Nov ceiling.62.7+0.4% 57.0568/63.82
LBH5Lumber CME (March 2015)Ranging above the oversold and accelerated Jan low. However, penned by the 50-day MA.312.2+0.4% 302.6/308.2340.7/325.4
JOH5Orange Juice (March 2015)Develops resistance near the s-t top. Possibly reasserting the downtrend.137.65+1.5% 125.55/133.05148/142.6
SBH5Sugar NYBOT (March 2015)Support at the Jan low reverses the s-t fall.14.88-1.1% 14.0716.44/16.16


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