|Commodities Daily Hotline
3 May 2013 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Prices of contracts in the Oil sector reversed their recent down drifts yesterday. For the Crude instrument, shown here, support was encountered near 90; above last month's trough. The price jumped back up to re-challenge resistance at the sideways area along 95. We watch to purchase in the event of a breakout, for the upside potential towards the early-April high at 98.06, and possibly resistance near the psychological 100 number thereafter.
Also in the Energy sector, Natural Gas has recorded a 7% loss for yesterday's session. Resistance at the overbought April ceiling forced a sharp reaction to shake the uptrend from the huge base.
Now, the price has retreated to potential support from the 50-day moving average. Also, old resistance from the late-2012 highs near 4 could transform into a platform. The stoploss on the long trade is at 3.90.
In Softs, Lumber has extended its decline from 410 to pressure late-January support at 338.3. That platform previously produced a surging recovery, which eventually led to that March pinnacle near 410. Another aspect on the chart favouring a rebound sooner rather than later is the oversold RSI momentum indicator. We watch to buy, particularly if support is found with a dynamic move.
Another Soft, Orange Juice, has produced a bullish signal on the P&F scanner, on the move through 143.25 (see below). This Candlestick chart displays the uptrend reasserting, with support arriving near the 50-day moving average again. We already hold a long trade in OJ and raise the stoploss to 137.5.
LIFFE Cocoa and Coffee also produce 'Bull' P&F Breakout signals. We are inclined to ignore these as the former is near overbought levels; and the latter is pausing the short-term downtrend.
In the Grains sector, a long trade was recently opened in Corn following the base breakout. The price of this contract now develops support at the upper boundary of that small base. The stop is tightened to 630. This action locks in a profit.
In Meats, the Live Cattle issue has cracked downtrend resistance at the shorter-term MA. We watch developments with a view to closing the short position if previous resistance at the April high fails to reverse the recovery.
|MO1||Carbon Emission (Cont)||3.09||+6.2%||13,035|
|MOZ3||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2013)||3.09||+6.2%||13,035|
|KCN3||Coffee NYBOT (July 2013)||139.45||+4.1%||24,863|
|KC1||Coffee NYBOT 1st Month Continuation||139.45||+3.5%||24,863|
|KC2||Coffee NYBOT (cont)||141.5||+3.4%||3,901|
|NG1||Natural Gas NYME 1st Month Continuation||4.025||-7.0%||231,699|
|NGM3||Natural Gas NYME (June 13)||4.025||-7.0%||231,699|
|NG2||Natural Gas NYME (cont)||4.077||-6.9%||63,921|
|LBN3||Lumber CME (July 2013)||341.2||-2.0%||669|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||1941||-1.9%||6,153|
P&F Breakouts: May 2, 2013.
|QCN3||Cocoa LIFFE (July 2013)||Bull||1560.00||1650.00||1525.00||1570|
|DFN3||Coffee LIFFE (July 2013)||Bull||2012.50||2060.00||1992.50||2020|
|JOK3||Orange Juice (May 2013)||Bull||143.25||148.00||141.25||145.05|
|NGM3||Natural Gas NYME (June 13)||Bear||4.15||4.00||4.40||4.025|
|IJQ3||Rapeseed LIFFE (August 13)||Bear||432.50||419.50||438.00||430|
|IJ2||Rapeseed LIFFE (cont)||Bear||424.00||406.00||440.00||421.75|
|IJ1||Rapeseed LIFFE 1st Month Continuation||Bear||430.00||380.00||485.00||430|
P&F breakouts identify medium-term trend changes. "Bull" breakouts occur when a stock reverses its downtrend by posting a "higher high". "Bear" breakouts are the inverse.
Key Day Reversals : May 02, 2013
Key day reversals are technical signals formed by stocks posting an "outside day" of a higher high and a lower close. Sells/Peaks occur on countertrend reversals from a bullish trend and buys/Troughs occur on countertrend reversals from bearish trends. Signals are particularly powerful when occurring after a period of overextension.
MA Crossovers : May 02, 2013
|CL2||Crude Oil NYME (cont)||Golden||94.20||+2.96|
Moving Average (MA) crossovers identify longer-term changes of trend. We scan for "Golden" (bullish) and "Dead" (bearish) signals occurring when an instrumentís 50-day MA crosses its 200-day MA.
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|5 Apr 2013||Orange Juice (May 2013)||JOK3||Long||147.75||145.05||-1.83%||137.5|
|25 Apr 2013||Aluminium HG LME 3m||LMAHDS03||Long||1920||1811||-5.68%||1800|
|29 Apr 2013||Natural Gas NYME (June 13)||NGM3||Long||4.392||4.025||-8.36%||3.9|
|29 Apr 2013||Corn CBT (July 13)||C N3||Long||625||662||+5.92%||630|
|30 Apr 2013||Kansas City Wheat (KCB) July 13||KWN3||Long||780||790.75||+1.38%||710|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|15 Apr 2013||Soybean Oil CBT (July 2013)||BON3||Short||48.36||48.49||-0.27%||51.5|
|15 Apr 2013||Live Cattle CME (LC Jun 2013)||LCM3||Short||119.825||123.65||-3.19%||125|
- Stops are adjusted on long Corn and OJ.
- We watch to buy Lumber and Crude (Chart of the Day).
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Steadies above the Apr trough, but remains beneath downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||286.686||+1.2%||266.78/280.174||291.526/289.557|
|CLM3||Crude Oil NYME (June 13)||Finds firm support above the Apr trough. Retests resistance near 95.||93.99||+3.3%||85.9/90.11||95.12/94.69|
|XBM3||Gasoline RBOB NYME (June 13)||Nov support produces another bounce.||278.06||+2.3%||259.38/268.47||294.91/283|
|HOM3||Heating Oil NYME (June 13)||Downtrend flattens. Jumps up to hefty supply.||285.55||+2.4%||271.98/275.97||296.96/288.43|
|NGM3||Natural Gas NYME (June 13)||Uptrend falters, with a sharp drop from the Apr high. Tests potential support at the 50-day MA.||4.025||-7.0%||3.911||4.575/4.457|
|QZM3||Coal (June 2013)||Resistancea at the Feb ceiling holds in line with the prior high RSI.||59.85||-0.9%||57.27/58.43||61.37/60.45|
|GCM3||Gold CMX (Jun 13)||Recovery pauses beneath 1500.||1467.6||+1.5%||1203.6/1321.5||1590.1/1484.8|
|PAM3||Palladium NYME (Jun 13)||Recovery pauses beneath the heavy top.||693.3||+1.2%||592.45/647.5||740/703.5|
|PLN3||Platinum NYME (July 13)||Recovery falters at the 50-day MA.||1500.2||+2.1%||1374.6||1560/1525.8|
|SIN3||Silver CMX (July 2013)||Small recovery from oversold slows.||23.83||+0.5%||21.12||28.07/24.835?|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Retreats from the 'Peak' KDR of 26 April and 50-day MA. Dips under the mid-Apr low (1818) during Wed to question the base theory.||1811||-0.7%||1776||1958/1946|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Retraces the counter rally from oversold. Falls back towards the 2011 floor.||6848||+0.8%||6635/6762.25||7645.25/7258|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Renews the downtrend. Breaks support at the Oct low (1979).||1941||-1.9%||1931.25||2115/2082|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Resumes the downtrend.||14680||-1.0%||14120||17340/16345|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Extends the fall beneath the Oct low (19511) during Thur. RSI oversold.||19675||-1.5%||19150||23300/21190|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Falls from the 50-day MA to test s-t range (base?) support (near the Oct low).||1819||-1.1%||1812.5||1962/1948|
|FCQ3||Feeder Cattle CME (August 2013)||Surging 'bear trap' recovery falters.||149.65||+0.6%||144.5||154.475/152.375|
|LCM3||Live Cattle CME (Jun 13)||Breaks downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. Tests the early-Apr barrier.||123.65||+1.0%||119.375/121.675?||125.95/124.55|
|LHM3||Lean Hogs CME (Jun 13)||Potential base. Trades near resistance at the 200-day MA.||92.825||-0.1%||87.1/88.175||98.85/93.075?|
|C N3||Corn CBT (July 13)||Develops support near the upper side of the small base.||662||+2.4%||610/639.5||718.75/669?|
|O N3||Oats CBT (July 13)||Ranging beneath the Mar peak.||386.25||+1.6%||348/358||407.75/400|
|IJQ3||Rapeseed LIFFE (August 13)||Broadly rangebound beneath 440. Potential m-t base.||430||-1.0%||424.25||442|
|S N3||Soybeans CBT (July 13)||Falls back towards sideways support near 1340.||1372.25||-0.1%||1331.75||1436.25/1423.75|
|SMN3||Soybean Meal CBT (July 2013)||'Bull trap' reaction follows the failed break over the late-Mar high (421.9).||406.2||+0.4%||384.8/388||437.8/422.7|
|BON3||Soybean Oil CBT (July 2013)||Retreats from downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA to the Apr low.||48.49||-0.7%||44.9/48.08||50.42|
|W N3||Wheat CBT (July 2013)||Breaks downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. Tests the Mar high. Potential base.||728.5||+1.0%||664.75/687.75||754.25/740.5|
|QKX3||Wheat LIFFE (November 2013)||Ranging quietly after the early-Apr rally from the 200-day MA.||184||+0.3%||178||190|
|CCN3||Cocoa NYBOT (July 2013)||Extends the overbought uptrend to supply from the Aug/mid-Dec 2012 top.||2414||+1.0%||2126/2294||2467|
|KCN3||Coffee NYBOT (July 2013)||Pauses the downtrend.||139.45||+4.1%||132.7||144.5|
|CTN3||Cotton (July 2013)||Continues to develop support near the 200-day MA.||85.68||+2.2%||82.84||91.58/87.62|
|LBN3||Lumber CME (July 2013)||S-t downtrend to the Jan trough is oversold.||341.2||-2.0%||338.3||374.2|
|JOK3||Orange Juice (May 2013)||Reasserts the uptrend.||145.05||+2.3%||131.15/138||155.7|
|SBN3||Sugar NYBOT (July 2013)||Holds the downtrend. Intraday support is noted at 17.18.||17.6||+0.4%||16||17.97|
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