|Commodities Daily Hotline
20 July 2015 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
The Gold instrument has followed other Precious Metals issues, Palladium and Platinum, in falling to new contract lows (see Friday's Chart of the Day section). For the yellow metal, support at the November-March floor at 1140 yielded before the weekend. That weakness is continuing in the out of hours session, with this contract trading at 1113.4 a short time ago. However, we would point out also that the RSI has fallen towards oversold levels.
In Friday's report, the question was posed of whether downtrend resistance at the 50-day Moving Average for Industrial Metal, Tin, would make itself felt. Following the previous day's +2.9% with +4.5%, the contract priced surged past that barrier, extending the recovery from oversold towards the next chart resistance at the late-April/May ceiling at 16400.
In contrast, Aluminium's recovery from oversold shows a loss of momentum near short-term downtrend resistance from the 50-day MA. A clearance of early-July resistance near that line, at 1744.5, would be required to remove the danger of a retracement.
In the Energy sector, the Coal instrument has been languishing near the contract low for some time. This is in spite of the deeply oversold RSI indicator. On Friday, the price rebounded strongly from that floor, at 41.03, to challenge potential resistance at the 50-day MA. If a sustained breakout can be achieved, the 200-day MA will become the next target for bulls.
We continue to hold a non-performing long trade in Gasoline in this sector. Following the failed break under the previous short-term range, though, there is potential 'bear trap' scope towards the upper side of the pattern, near 213.
In Grains, the correction from overbought by the Wheat contract has reached an interesting point. The 550 area used to represent resistance at the top side of the medium-term base, and has the potential to convert into support. Also, the 50 and 200-day MAs are located nearby, and may also offer a lift. We will consider buying should this turn out to be the case, especially if that occurs on a dynamic move.
In Softs, the Sugar issue has encountered resistance near the 50-day MA once again. Shedding 2.5% on Friday, the price has eased to initial support at 11.84. A jump past sideways trading near 12.80 would be required to reaffirm that support; and renew the recovery into supply from the year's earlier range, which stretches up to around 14.
|QZU5||Coal (September 2015)||43.13||+5.1%|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||15780||+4.5%|
|XB2||Gasoline RBOB NYME (cont)||187.77||+1.9%|
|XAU||PHLX Gold & Silver Index||54.202||-4.7%|
|SBV5||Sugar NYBOT (October 2015)||11.96||-2.5%|
|SB1||Sugar NYBOT 1st Month Continuation||11.96||-2.5%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|23 Jun 2015||Gasoline RBOB NYME (August 2015)||XBQ5||Long||204.33||192.86||-5.61%||185|
|26 Jun 2015||Cotton (December 2015)||CTZ5||Long||66.99||65.22||-2.64%||62.75|
|14 Jul 2015||Cocoa NYBOT (September 2015)||CCU5||Long||3338||3346||+0.24%||3025|
- We watch to buy Wheat.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Tests early-July support (213.107) within the 2015 range/base.||214.542||-0.5%||211.754/213.107||242.602/233.531|
|CLU5||Crude Oil NYME (September 15)||Oversold s-t decline hovers near the year's earlier floor; close to the psychological 50 level.||51.21||-0.1%||49.69||64.45|
|XBQ5||Gasoline RBOB NYME (August15)||Failed break under the prior s-t range. Potential 'bear trap'.||192.86||+1.7%||165.38/185.27||223.92/213.71|
|HOQ5||Heating Oil NYME (August 15)||Renews the oversold fall towards the Jan floor.||166.41||-0.1%||161.85||206.84|
|NGQ5||Natural Gas NYME (August 15)||Ranging above the Apr-Jun floor in potential base extension phase.||2.87||+0.6%||2.569||3.269/3.167/2.977|
|QZU5||Coal (September 15)||Jumps up from the oversold contract low.||43.13||+5.1%||41.03||51.6|
|GCV5||Gold CMX (Oct 15)||Extends the s-t fall past the Nov floor (1140) to a new contract low. RSI low.||1131.9||-1.0%||/||1205.5|
|PAU5||Palladium NYME (Sep 15)||Extends the downtrend to a new contract low. RSI oversold again.||619||-2.0%||/||702.8/667.6|
|PLV5||Platinum NYME (October 15)||Falls to a new contract low. RSI oversold again.||1001.3||-1.0%||/||1097.2/1041.4|
|SIU5||Silver CMX (September 2015)||Retraces the recovery from oversold after finding resistance near the 50-day MA.||14.834||-1.0%||14.62||16.46/15.9|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Recovery slows by s-t downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||1697||-1.1%||1545/1631.5||1782/1744.5|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Strong rebound from oversold pauses.||5480||-1.4%||4710/5240||5838/5722.5|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Recovery from the oversold 'Trough' KDR of 8 July and Mar floor (1676.5) slows.||1844||+0.3%||1535/1676.5||2009|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Holds the small recovery from oversold.||11500||-1.1%||8850/10430||12965/12245|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Recovery from the June low cracks downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||15780||+4.5%||13365||16400|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Recovery from oversold finds intraday resistance at 2117.5.||2066||-0.3%||1855/1906||2191|
|FCU5||Feeder Cattle CME (September 2015)||Pauses the s-t downtrend towards the Apr low.||215.2||+0.3%||205.15||225.55/219.3|
|LCV5||Live Cattle CME (Oct 15)||Holds the down bias towards the Apr low.||146.65||+0.1%||146||156.15|
|LHV5||Lean Hogs CME (Oct 15)||'Bear trap' recovery pauses beneath resistance at the 50-day MA.||75.675||-0.4%||59.45||67.2|
|C Z5||Corn CBT (December 15)||Retreats from the overbought 'Peak' KDR of 14 Jul towards initial support (424.5).||431.25||-2.2%||362.5/424.5||469/454.25|
|O Z5||Oats CBT (December 15)||The s-t uptrend struggles beneath the 200-day MA.||262.5||-2.2%||249/256.5||289/283.5|
|IJX5||Rapeseed LIFFE (November 15)||S-t rally from the 50-day MA struggles.||388.75||+0.3%||370.5/380||408.75|
|S X5||Soybeans CBT (November 15)||Failed break over the early-Jul high (1040). 'Bull trap' pullback towards 980 region follows.||1006.75||-0.4%||895.75/978.75||1056.75/1045?|
|SMZ5||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2015)||Overbought rally slows beneath the mid-2014 top.||347.7||-0.6%||286/333.4||363|
|BOZ5||Soybean Oil CBT (December 2015)||Did not maintain the dip under sideways support at 31.6. Potential 'bear trap'.||32.16||+1.1%||30.27/31.59?||34.26/33.41|
|W U5||Wheat CBT (September 2015)||Correction from overbought reaches potential support at the top of the prior m-t base, around 550; near the 50 and 200-day MAs.||554||-1.5%||469.25/488.25||672.5/618|
|QKX5||Wheat LIFFE (November 2015)||Holds the correction from overbought.||125.45||-1.2%||120.75||137.25/136.5|
|CCU5||Cocoa NYBOT (September 2015)||Holds the uptrend.||3346||-0.2%||3046/3225||/|
|KCU5||Coffee NYBOT (September 2015)||Possibly reasserting downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA, towards the late-2013 lows.||128.4||-0.3%||122.95/123.65?||141/137.8|
|CTZ5||Cotton (December 2015)||Trades within the broad range/base.||65.22||-0.0%||63.07||70/68.11|
|LBU5||Lumber CME (September 2015)||Retreats from resistance at the 200-day MA. Breaks early-July support (281.1) at the 50-day MA.||278.2||-0.8%||263||326/305.5|
|JOU5||Orange Juice (September 2015)||Potential base.||119.95||+0.1%||108.95||140.05/129.5|
|SBV5||Sugar NYBOT (October 2015)||Small recovery from oversold finds resistance near the 50-day MA. Tests initial support (11.84).||11.96||-2.5%||11.52/11.84||13.9/12.8|
Copyright 2015 by Stockcube Research Ltd.