|Commodities Daily Hotline
21 April 2016 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
In the Energy sector, the Heating Oil instrument has recorded a 5.3% gain for Wednesday's session. Finding support at the 50-day Moving Average recently, the price has resumed the uptrend towards potential resistance at the 200-day MA, which is currently located near 140.50. If that line can be overcome, the next chart resistance is at the late-November high at 151.65.
We continue to hold a long trade in Crude, which has a similar pattern. The stop is raised to 38.
Industrial Metal, Aluminium, rallied well on Wednesday to pass prior resistance at the March ceiling at 1605. The September/October highs, at 1664.75/1646, are the next targets for bulls. We would point out, though, that the RSI is now overbought.
In the Precious Metal sector, Platinum has extended the uptrend past the October high and pressures the August peak at 1038. We remain long in expectation of a breakout, and raise the stop to 935.
In Grains, the Oats contract has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal at 206, which we have followed. A short-term base is in place that should sustain higher levels. In view of the high level of the RSI, which indicates the onset of an overbought state increasing the likelihood of a correction, the stop is placed at a safe distance, at 188.
The Wheat instrument soared past the January high and 200-day MA to complete its base. The move through that barrier, around 500, triggered the opening of a long trade (see yesterday's hotline). Given the high level of the RSI indicator here too, the stop is inserted at 460 for the time being.
In Softs, Sugar has maintained the rally back towards the overbought March peak at 16.75. Since the May contract is coming towards the end of its useful period, we close the long trade, making 5.92%.
Orange Juice, in this sector, has posted a 2.8% loss as the price extended its pullback from overbought, dipping under near-term range support at 133.05; close to both the long and short-term MAs. That action renews the fall from the December ceiling within the prior base, which stretches down to the January and March lows, at 115.75 and 118.35, respectively. One notes there is some minor support beforehand at 127.
|CL1||Crude Oil NYME 1st Month Continuation||44.18||+7.5%|
|O 1||Oats CBT 1st Month Continuation||207||+5.7%|
|HO1||Heating Oil NYME 1st Month Continuation||133.22||+5.5%|
|HO2||Heating Oil NYME (cont)||133.83||+5.3%|
|HOM6||Heating Oil NYME (June 2016)||133.83||+5.3%|
|JO1||Orange Juice 1st Month Continuation||129.55||-3.5%|
|JON6||Orange Juice (July 2016)||133.5||-2.8%|
|JO2||Orange Juice (cont)||133.5||-2.8%|
|XAU||PHLX Gold & Silver Index||81.5177||-1.8%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Target||Stop|
|17 Mar 2016||Copper Grade A LME 3m||LMCADS03||Long||5059||4981||-1.54%||4500|
|11 Apr 2016||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2016)||MOZ6||Long||5.49||5.55||+1.09%||4.45|
|13 Apr 2016||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||LMZSDS03||Long||1881.5||1940||+3.11%||1680|
|19 Apr 2016||Crude Oil NYME (June 2016)||CLM6||Long||42.47||44.18||+4.03%||38|
|19 Apr 2016||Natural Gas NYME (June 16)||NGM6||Long||2.188||2.18||-0.37%||1.8|
|19 Apr 2016||Platinum NYME (July 16)||PLN6||Long||1010.3||1028.1||+1.76%||935|
|20 Apr 2016||Oats CBT (July 16)||O N6||Long||206||214.75||+4.25%||188|
|20 Apr 2016||Wheat CBT (July 2016)||W N6||Long||500||512.25||+2.45%||460|
- The long in Sugar is closed.
- Stops are raised on long Crude and Platinum.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Extends the s-t uptrend on the break over the Mar high (178.68). Points towards the 200-day MA.||181.436||+2.0%||164.712/171.585||186.338|
|CLM6||Crude Oil NYME (June 16)||Extends the s-t uptrend towards the 200-day MA.||44.18||+4.0%||36.57/39||47.02|
|XBM6||Gasoline RBOB NYME (June16)||Reverses back up to resistance at the Jan high (157.23); near the 200-day MA.||152.68||+1.9%||137.22/141.54||162.85/157.23|
|HOM6||Heating Oil NYME (June 16)||Renews the s-t uptrend. Points towards the 200-day MA.||133.83||+5.3%||108.5/118.21||151.65|
|NGM6||Natural Gas NYME (June 16)||Breaks out of the s-t range/base. Renews the recovery.||2.18||-0.4%||1.844/1.948||2.413/2.331|
|QZM6||Coal (June 16)||Trades near the contract low.||43.63||0.00%||/||44.05|
|GCM6||Gold CMX (Jun 16)||Extends range (top?) forming beneath the Jan 2015 peak (1308).||1254.4||+0.0%||1071.8/1192.1||1309/1287.8|
|PAM6||Palladium NYME (Jun 16)||Rallies from the Jan/early-Mar base area back to the Mar high. RSI high.||597.05||+2.6%||480.45/533||708.95/608.15|
|PLN6||Platinum NYME (July 16)||Extends the uptrend past the Oct high to the Aug peak (1038).||1028.1||+1.2%||911.3/938.1||1094.5/1038|
|SIN6||Silver CMX (July 2016)||Advance surges and becomes overbought.||17.183||+1.0%||14.83||17.875|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Rallies past the early-Mar high (1605). RSI overbought.||1622||+2.2%||1449/1475||1664.75/1646|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Rallies from the late-Nov/Feb base to the Mar ceiling.||4981||+0.9%||4430/4631||5356/5131|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Bounces from the late-Feb/mid-Apr floor (1679). Breaks recent resistance at 1762; near the 50 and 200-day MAs.||1771||+0.6%||1588/1679||1966/1895|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||April rally approaches the Mar high (9480).||9325||+0.6%||7550/8245||10785/9480|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Rallies from the large base; and 50-day MA, back to the Mar ceiling (17525).||17200||+0.3%||15160/16200/16300?||18315/17651/17525|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Extends the advance.||1940||+0.2%||1640.5/1715||2117.5/1997|
|FCQ6||Feeder Cattle CME (August 2016)||Trades under the floor of the m-t range, at the Dec platform (145.25); also the contract low, during Tues. RSI low.||145.775||-0.5%||/||164.1/156.425|
|LCM6||Live Cattle CME (Jun 16)||Falls to the Dec contract low. RSI oversold.||117.275||-1.1%||115.475||131.35/124.9|
|LHM6||Lean Hogs CME (Jun 16)||Rebounds towards initial resistance at 80.95.||79.6||+0.9%||74.25/76.2/76.8||83.975/80.95|
|C N6||Corn CBT (July 16)||Extends the recovery from oversold past the Dec high (393). RSI overbought.||399.75||+2.6%||351.25/358.75||423/407.5|
|O N6||Oats CBT (July 16)||Shoots past the Mar high (209) completing a s-t base. RSI high.||214.75||+5.0%||183.75/190.25||241.25/219|
|IJQ6||Rapeseed LIFFE (August 16)||Rally to the Dec peak (369) is overbought.||366.5||+0.3%||351.5/355.5||376/371.5/369|
|S N6||Soybeans CBT (July 16)||Overbought rally accelerates to the mid-2015 peak area.||1019||+2.4%||903.5/953.75||1031.25|
|SMN6||Soybean Meal CBT (July 2016)||Overbought rally accelerates past the Oct high (312.4).||321.5||+4.4%||268/291||343.6/330|
|BON6||Soybean Oil CBT (July 2016)||Renews the uptrend. Trades over the Jun 2015 high (35.23) during Wed.||34.93||-0.4%||33.06/33.41||35.76|
|W N6||Wheat CBT (July 2016)||Surges past the Jan high (499); and 200-day MA, completing a base. RSI overbought.||512.25||+3.6%||449.5||547.25/534.25|
|QKX6||Wheat LIFFE (November 2016)||Reverses up to test sideways resistance near 120.||119.9||+1.0%||113.5/116.5||126.7/120.25|
|CCN6||Cocoa NYBOT (July 2016)||Rally from the s-t base heads for the Mar high.||3090||+0.4%||2852||3147|
|KCN6||Coffee NYBOT (July 2016)||Retraces the correction from the overbought Mar high.||128.7||+0.6%||121.1||138.2|
|CTN6||Cotton (July 2016)||Extends the overbought rally towards the Dec peak area.||64.09||+1.6%||59.12||66.31/65.56|
|LBN6||Lumber CME (July 2016)||Pauses the correction from the overbought contract high.||286.8||-0.0%||254.4/276.6||317.1/300|
|JON6||Orange Juice (July 2016)||Dips under s-t range support (133.05); at the 50 and 200-day MAs during Wed. Renews the fall from the Dec ceiling.||133.5||-2.8%||118.35/127?||155.95/150.6|
|SBK6||Sugar NYBOT (May 2016)||Holds the rally back towards the overbought Mar high.||15.57||+2.6%||12.61/14||17.35/16.75|
Copyright 2016 by Stockcube Research Ltd.