|Commodities Daily Hotline
8 December 2014 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
The Coffee instrument failed to maintain the break to a new contract high in October. The ensuing 'bull trap' decline did find support at the 200-day moving average in the first half of November. However, the price recently fell beneath that line. What is more, the September floor at 180.6 gave way on Friday. Now, there is a danger of further slippage towards the July platform at 166.45. A sustained clearance of 200 would be required to improve the outlook.
Also in the Softs sector, Lumber is moving in the opposite direction. The price has pushed northwards as a short-term uptrend develops towards the August/October highs at 359/355.5. A drop beneath 326; the early-December low would be needed to check the upward tendency.
In the Grains sector, Soybean Meal and Soybeans contracts are bouncing within their trading ranges. In the case of the former shown here, support has been found near both the long and short-term moving averages again. The upper boundary is near 400; beneath the May ceiling at 410.3.
The recovery for the latter has yielded to ranging after resistance was found at the 200-day MA at 1126.5 (see 'Gainers' for the chart).
We continue to hold a short trade in the third member of the Soy group, Soybean Oil. The oversold downtrend has paused after a new contract low. However, the pattern is clearly dominated by hefty supply evident above current levels.
Also in this sector, the modest profit, 0.13%, is booked on the long held in Corn, as the December contract approaches the end of its lifespan.
In the Meats grouping, the Live Cattle issue has renewed its correction from the overbought November high at 172.75. The drop under the 50-day MA has broken the short-term uptrend. The price now points towards mid-October support at 161. The stoploss on the long trade held here is at 160.
In Energies, the Natural Gas product appears in the 'Gainers' list below, with +4.2%. The price bounced back over the October low at 3.707 on Friday. This action promotes hopes for a 'bear trap' recovery over the short term, possibly towards the sideways area near 4.
In the Precious Metals sector, Gold and Silver have produced bearish P&F Breakout signals on the automated scanner. Both contracts have paused following the upward dynamics ('Trough' Key Day Reversals) drawn on 1 December. Given the strength of that move, we remain long the yellow metal, in anticipation of renewed gains after the current consolidation phase.
|NG2||Natural Gas NYME (cont)||3.823||+4.4%|
|NG1||Natural Gas NYME 1st Month Continuation||3.802||+4.2%|
|NGF5||Natural Gas NYME (January 15)||3.802||+4.2%|
|S F5||Soybeans CBT (January 15)||1036||+2.5%|
|BDIY||Baltic Dry Index||982||-3.6%|
|MO1||Carbon Emission (Cont)||6.66||-2.6%|
|MOZ5||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2015)||6.76||-2.6%|
|PLF5||Platinum NYME (January 15)||1219.5||-2.1%|
|PL1||Platinum NYME 1st Month Continuation||1219.5||-2.1%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|20 Nov 2014||Tin HG LME 3 Months||LMSNDS03||Long||20290||20200||-0.44%||19250|
|28 Nov 2014||Palladium NYME (Mar 15)||PAH5||Long||809.3||802.7||-0.82%||730|
|1 Dec 2014||Gold CMX (Feb 15)||GCG5||Long||1199||1190.4||-0.72%||1125|
|1 Dec 2014||Live Cattle CME (LC Feb 2015)||LCG5||Long||170.85||164.875||-3.50%||160|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|2 Dec 2014||Soybean Oil CBT (January 2015)||BOF5||Short||32.2||32.08||+0.37%||34|
- The long in Corn is closed with a small profit.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Renews the fall to the 2010 floor (247.25). RSI remains low.||252.334||-0.3%||231.17/247.25||271.979/270.013|
|CLF5||Crude Oil NYME (January 15)||Pauses after the bounce from the oversold contract low.||65.84||-1.5%||63.72||79.8/77.83|
|XBF5||Gasoline RBOB NYME (Jan15)||Extends the fall to a new contract low. RSI oversold.||177.34||-1.2%||/||207.37/189.38|
|HOF5||Heating Oil NYME (Jan 15)||Extends the fall to a new contract low. RSI oversold.||210.78||-0.5%||/||254.3/222.43|
|NGF5||Natural Gas NYME (Jan 15)||Failed break under the Oct low (3.707). Potential 'bear trap'.||3.802||+4.2%||3.638||5.027/4.689|
|QZF5||Coal (Jan 15)||Holds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. Drifts to a new low.||52.82||-0.2%||/||60/54.05|
|GCG5||Gold CMX (Feb 15)||Pauses after the dramatic 'Trough' KDR of 1 Dec from prior support at the Nov low.||1190.4||-1.4%||1132||1256.2|
|PAH5||Palladium NYME (Mar 15)||Breaks s-t range resistance at the early-Oct high; near the 50 and 200-day MAs, leaving a base.||802.7||+0.1%||733.45||911.8|
|PLF5||Platinum NYME (January 15)||Recovery slows by the 50-day MA after rebounding from the Nov low.||1219.5||-2.1%||1177.5||1350.2/1294.8|
|SIH5||Silver CMX (March 2015)||Dramatic 'Trough' KDR from a new contract low slows by the 50-day MA.||16.258||-1.9%||14.155||17.825|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Retreat from the Aug/Sept ceiling slows.||1982||-0.6%||1885/1952||2119.5/2078.75|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Extends the recovery from oversold.||6451||-0.3%||6037.5||6992/6835.5|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Develops support around 2000; in the upper half of the s-t range.||2038||-0.1%||1955.5||2120.25/2075|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Overbought s-t uptrend slows beneath the year's earlier top.||16800||-1.9%||14900/15868||19990/17501|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Pauses the rally from the small base.||20200||-1.0%||19000/20000||21468/20620|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Top heavy but support near the 200-day MA survives.||2237||-0.0%||2073.25/2166||2354/2331|
|FCF5||Feeder Cattle CME (January 2015)||Reasserts the uptrend, finding support near the 50-day MA, after correcting from overbought.||234.875||-0.5%||216.525/225.75||239.3|
|LCG5||Live Cattle CME (Feb 15)||Breaks s-t uptrend support near the 50-day MA.||164.875||-1.3%||161||172.75|
|LHJ5||Lean Hogs CME (Apr 15)||Broadly rangebound beneath the Jul peak area.||86.95||-1.7%||85.75||97.7/94.1|
|C Z4||Corn CBT (December 14)||Develops uptrend support at the 50-day MA; and the 'Trough' KDR of 20 Nov.||381.5||+1.5%||330.5/359/362.5||458.75/395.75/389|
|O H5||Oats CBT (March 15)||Oversold dive pauses above the early-2014 trough.||312.75||+0.2%||288.25/298.25||344.75|
|IJG5||Rapeseed LIFFE (February 15)||Ranging beneath resistance around the overbought Oct high; near the 200-day MA.||340.25||+1.0%||323.5/327.25||363/349|
|S F5||Soybeans CBT (January 15)||Recovery yields to ranging beneath the 200-day MA.||1036||+2.5%||912.25||1126.5|
|SMF5||Soybean Meal CBT (January 2015)||Extends the s-t range forming beneath the May peak. The lower boundary; near both the 50 and 200-day MAs, holds.||366.4||+2.4%||347.9||398.9|
|BOF5||Soybean Oil CBT (January 2015)||Downtrend slows after a new contract low.||32.08||+1.2%||/||35.16/33.82|
|W H5||Wheat CBT (March 2015)||Overbought rally pauses.||594||+0.7%||520.75/536||646.75/611.75|
|QKK5||Wheat LIFFE (May 2015)||Corrects from overbought.||136||+0.7%||123.75/129.9||145/142.5|
|CCH5||Cocoa NYBOT (March 2015)||Pauses the decline from the Sept peak, which had become oversold.||2890||+0.9%||2652/2780||2927|
|KCH5||Coffee NYBOT (March 2015)||Breaks support at the Sept low (180.6).||180.1||-1.3%||166.45||229.1/201.35|
|CTH5||Cotton (March 2015)||Decline shows a loss of momentum.||59.64||-1.3%||/||63.82|
|LBF5||Lumber CME (January 2015)||Renews the recovery from the 'Trough' KDR of 18 Nov.||339||+1.6%||315.3/326||359/355.5|
|JOF5||Orange Juice (January 2015)||Pullback from overbought finds intraday support at 144.25.||146||-0.1%||121.35/124.1||154/149.9|
|SBH5||Sugar NYBOT (March 2015)||Holds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA. Trades near the contract low.||15.14||-0.5%||/||17.2/16.44|
Copyright 2014 by Stockcube Research Ltd.