|Commodities Daily Hotline
16 September 2014 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Aluminium has traded below the 50-day moving average for the first time since May. Having broken the short-term uptrend, the support at the July/August lows, at 1967/1983, is under scrutiny. Should that floor area crumble, the next target will be around the 1900 region; near the 200-day moving average.
Aluminium wasn't the only Industrial Metal to deteriorate on Monday. Lead renewed its oversold decline towards the May/June floor at 2070. Should that yield, prices could ease towards the March/April lows at 2013.25/2032.
The Crude instrument appears to be developing support above the early-2014 lows. Over the last few sessions, one has observed intraday support arriving around 90.50. Nonetheless, a clearance of resistance at 96 would be needed to really improve the aspect of this pattern.
Also in the Energy sector, support at the late-July/September range floor has held up to the latest challenge for Natural Gas. The short-term pattern may well turn out to be a base under construction, though a sustained break over the 50-day moving average would be required to add weight to that theory.
In Softs, Cotton has recorded a 3.2% loss for Monday's trading. The price has dipped back under the shorter-term MA; and August high, in what one hopes (since a long trade was recently opened in the item) will be a base extension phase. Of course, the fall beneath last month's high does present a 'bull trap' risk in hte meantime, towards the last reaction low at 63.93.
The NYBOT Sugar contract has slumped to another low. The profitable stop on the short is lowered again, to 14.
In contrast, the LIFFE White Sugar issue has registered a 3.4% gain, as it launches a counter move from oversold. It will be interesting to see whether old support around 420 will convert into a barrier.
The UK Cocoa instrument has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal at 2000. Earlier in the month, a long trade was opened after support became apparent near the 50-day MA with a 'Trough' Key Day Reversal (plotted on 9 September).
In Grains, there is a revival in bullish interest in the Soybean Oil product. After languishing in oversold territory and near the contract lows for about a month, the price has launched a recovery, and is currently testing late-August resistance at 33.71.
|QWV4||Sugar White LIFFE (October 2014)||402.6||+3.4%|
|QW3||Sugar White LIFFE (cont)||442.8||+3.0%|
|LB2||Lumber CME (cont)||346||+2.8%|
|BO1||Soybean Oil CBT 1st Month Continuation||33.27||+2.2%|
|CT1||Cotton 1st Month Continuation||68.18||-3.4%|
|CTZ4||Cotton (December 2014)||65.84||-3.2%|
|LB1||Lumber CME 1st Month Continuation||338.6||-2.7%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|19 May 2014||Nickel LME 3 Months||LMNIDS03||Long||20100||18050||-10.20%||17400|
|9 Sep 2014||Cocoa LIFFE (December 2014)||QCZ4||Long||1995||2000||+0.25%||1925|
|11 Sep 2014||Cotton (December 2014)||CTZ4||Long||67.72||65.84||-2.78%||63|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|21 Aug 2014||Gold CMX (Oct 14)||GCV4||Short||1284||1234.1||+3.89%||1239|
|3 Sep 2014||Corn CBT (December 14)||C Z4||Short||352||343||+2.56%||344|
|3 Sep 2014||Wheat CBT (December 2014)||W Z4||Short||549||500.75||+8.79%||505|
|4 Sep 2014||Sugar NYBOT (October 2014)||SBV4||Short||15.45||13.67||+11.52%||14|
|5 Sep 2014||Lumber CME (November 2014)||LBX4||Short||338||338.6||-0.18%||356|
|11 Sep 2014||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2014)||SMZ4||Short||329.2||327||+0.67%||370|
- Profitable stops are lowered on short Gold, Corn, Wheat and Sugar.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Extends the downtrend from this year's earlier top. Intraday support is noted at 280.217 RSI oversold.||281.841||-0.0%||279.392||300.384/292.763|
|CLV4||Crude Oil NYME (October 14)||Potentially developing support above the early-2014 lows.||92.92||+0.7%||88.7/90.43||97.75/96|
|XBV4||Gasoline RBOB NYME (Oct14)||Downtrend resistance is near the 50 and 200-day MAs. Intraday support is noted at 249.5.||253.08||+0.5%||246.46||266.34/263.47|
|HOV4||Heating Oil NYME (Oct 14)||Holds downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||273.96||-0.0%||259.87/272.13?||292.75/289.05|
|NGV4||Natural Gas NYME (Oct 14)||Possibly basing between resistance at the 50-day MA and the late-Jul/Sept range floor.||3.931||+1.9%||3.589/3.74||4.164/4.101|
|QZZ4||Coal (Dec 14)||Oversold fall shows a minor loss of momentum.||55.93||+0.1%||/||62/60.4/60.02|
|GCV4||Gold CMX (Oct 14)||Extends the oversold decline towards the late-2013 low. However, some intraday support arrives at 1225.3.||1234.1||+0.3%||1188||1325.4/1296.4|
|PAZ4||Palladium NYME (Dec 14)||S-t fall finds intraday support at 822; near the June floor; and 200-day MA.||836.9||+0.1%||797.6/809.25||913/896.95|
|PLV4||Platinum NYME (October 14)||Holds the oversold fall.||1363.5||-0.5%||1324.6/1356.3?||1488.5/1431.3|
|SIZ4||Silver CMX (December 2014)||Extends the oversold downtrend. Dips under the 2013 floor (18.5) during Fri.||18.62||+0.1%||15.8/17.979||21.67/19.95|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Breaks uptrend support at the 50-day MA.||1991||-1.9%||1904.25/1967||2184/2119.5|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Retreats from sideways trading near 7200. However, intraday support arrives at 6734.||6820||-0.3%||6614.75/6821||7220/7108.75|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Renews the oversold s-t fall towards the May/June floor.||2097.5||-1.2%||2032/2070||2279.15/2129.75|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Falls to m-t range support at the June floor. Potential top.||18050||-1.9%||15695/17700||21625/20495/19990|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Oversold fall reverses.||21100||-0.8%||18809/20875||23849/23070|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Finds resistance at the July high. Breaks support by the 50-day MA and Aug low adding weight to the top theory.||2249||-1.2%||2173||2539.5/2416|
|FCV4||Feeder Cattle CME (October 2014)||Overbought rally slows after a new contract high.||225.85||-0.0%||194.025/205.7||229.825|
|LCV4||Live Cattle CME (Oct 14)||Unwinds from overbought. Failed break above the Jul high (bull trap).||156.35||+0.0%||140.55/144.225||161.75|
|LHV4||Lean Hogs CME (Oct 14)||S-t rally towards the Jul peak area slows.||106.075||+0.4%||90.45/102.7||118.35/106.15|
|C Z4||Corn CBT (December 14)||Oversold decline slows slightly near the contract low.||343||+1.3%||/||395.75/381/360?|
|O Z4||Oats CBT (December 14)||Ranging beneath resistance at the highs of the broad trading band.||354.5||+1.8%||311.5/336.75||379.25/363.75/361.75|
|IJX4||Rapeseed LIFFE (November 14)||Ranging below resistance at the 50-day MA and 'Peak' KDR of 29 Aug.||323.5||+0.6%||300.5/318||359.75/335.5|
|S X4||Soybeans CBT (November 14)||Oversold decline shows a loss of momentum.||989.5||+0.4%||/||1118.75/1089.25|
|SMZ4||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2014)||Breaks s-t range support near the l-t sideways area around 340.||327||-0.3%||309.7/318.5||398.3/366.6|
|BOZ4||Soybean Oil CBT (December 2014)||Recovers from oversold.||33.47||+2.1%||31.52||37.36/33.71|
|W Z4||Wheat CBT (December 2014)||Falls from resistance at the 50-day MA to a new contract low. RSI oversold.||500.75||-0.3%||/||591/579.25|
|QKX4||Wheat LIFFE (November 2014)||Extends the downtrend to a new contract low. RSI oversold.||112||-0.4%||/||124/120|
|CCZ4||Cocoa NYBOT (December 2014)||Oversold fall slows on the approach to the 200-day MA.||3057||+0.1%||2874||3300/3087|
|KCZ4||Coffee NYBOT (December 2014)||This year's large band looks like a top.||182.2||-1.3%||163.1||222.6/211.1|
|CTZ4||Cotton (December 2014)||Drops back into the s-t base.||65.84||-3.2%||62.02/63.93||78.74/69.14/68.48|
|LBX4||Lumber CME (November 2014)||Pauses the 'bull trap' reaction.||338.6||+0.6%||298/318.2||354.3|
|JOX4||Orange Juice (November 2014)||Potential base.||144.8||-1.1%||141.35||155.95|
|SBV4||Sugar NYBOT (October 2014)||Oversold decline makes a new contract low.||13.67||-0.8%||/||17.44/16.05|
Copyright 2014 by Stockcube Research Ltd.