|Commodities Daily Hotline
28 November 2013 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
The Crude Oil instrument has spent most of November ranging quietly. In the absence of an upward dynamic, to confirm new support around 93.20, the price has resumed the downtrend towards the June floor near 90.
The 'Dead' MA Crossover is noted. This feature recognises earlier weakness in the contract.
Should the summer floor fail to lift Crude, the next chart support is at the spring lows, at 88.4; the 1 May reaction low and 85.46; plotted on 18 April.
In contrast, Gasoline has reasserted the short-term uptrend towards the August high. We remain long; while Heating Oil continues to pressure the October high at 306.68 (see II website for the chart).
Also in the Energy sector, Natural Gas has extended its recovery from oversold, moving through supply from the late-August/October trading band. We would point out that prices are approaching potential resistance from the 200-day moving average. That line effectively capped rallies in September and October.
Industrial Metals were easier on Wednesday, especially Aluminium. Late in October, the price of this instrument encountered resistance near 1900. The persistent decline from that high continued yesterday, breaking support at the June-September floor at 1758. A quick move back over initial resistance around 1800, preferably with a dynamic move, is now needed to check the fall towards the 2009 base formation.
The Kansas City Wheat issue has recorded a 1.1% gain. The price is stabilising from a new contract low, at 694, after the prior decline became oversold. Also, there are 'bear trap' hopes for a further recovery over the short term, after the failed break under the September floor (694.25).
We continue to hold a long trade in the CBT Wheat instrument, which is developing support near the August/September floor around 640.
Also in the Grains department, Oats has recorded a 1.8% loss for Wednesday's trading. The chart shows the overbought recovery baulking at potential resistance from the longer-term MA. In the event of a deeper correction, watch to see whether support near the shorter-term MA, around the 320 mark, will offer a lift. Should it fail, next chart support is at the late-October low at 306.75.
|KWH4||Kansas City Wheat (KCB) March 04||706.5||+1.1%|
|W 1||Wheat CBT 1st Month Continuation||663.5||+1.1%|
|W 2||Wheat CBT (cont)||668||+1.1%|
|JN1||Rubber TCM 1st Month Continuation||259||+0.8%|
|LC1||Live Cattle CME 1st Month Continuation||134.1||+0.8%|
|O H4||Oats CBT (March 14)||329.25||-1.8%|
|O 1||Oats CBT 1st Month Continuation||329.25||-1.8%|
|PLAT||London Spot Platinum||1352.25||-1.7%|
|CL2||Crude Oil NYME (cont)||92.63||-1.5%|
|CL1||Crude Oil NYME 1st Month Continuation||92.3||-1.5%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|4 Oct 2013||Tin HG LME 3 Months||LMSNDS03||Long||23375||22575||-3.42%||22000|
|18 Oct 2013||Wheat CBT (December 2013)||W Z3||Long||693||651.25||-6.02%||559|
|12 Nov 2013||Palm Oil 1st Mth Continuation||KO1||Long||2599||2640||+1.58%||2420|
|21 Nov 2013||Gasoline RBOB NYME (January 14)||XBF4||Long||270||269.46||-0.20%||255|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|19 Nov 2013||Feeder Cattle CME (January 2014)||FCF4||Short||164||165.325||-0.81%||167|
|22 Nov 2013||Coffee NYBOT (March 2014)||KCH4||Short||107.5||108.1||-0.56%||120|
- There are no changes today.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Oversold decline shows a loss of momentum.||273.5||-0.5%||266.78/272.492?||288.712/282.716|
|CLF4||Crude Oil NYME (January 14)||Renews the downtrend towards the Jun floor.||92.3||-1.5%||90.35||98.96/95.74|
|XBF4||Gasoline RBOB NYME (January 14)||Potentially reasserting the s-t uptrend.||269.46||+0.5%||249.22/260.35||283.32/274.5|
|HOF4||Heating Oil NYME (January 14)||Reacts to the Oct high before finding intraday support at 296.89.||304.3||+0.0%||283.51/290.25||316.03/306.68|
|NGF4||Natural Gas NYME (January 14)||Extends the recovery from oversold towards potential resistance at the 200-day MA.||3.895||+0.8%||3.465/3.543||4.125|
|QZF4||Coal (January 2014)||Retraces to initial support near 54.||54.38||-1.0%||52.68/53.94||58.8/55.6|
|GCG4||Gold CMX (Feb 14)||Holds the downtrend to the summer trough. RSI low.||1237.9||-0.3%||1187.9/1214.4||1362.3/1294.7|
|PAH4||Palladium NYME (Mar 14)||Retreat from resistance at the June/early-Nov ceiling slows.||715.95||-0.3%||695||771.5/766.95|
|PLF4||Platinum NYME (January 04)||Retreat from 19 Sept resistance (1484.7); and the 200-day MA, breaks the Oct floor.||1352.7||-1.4%||1300.3||1554.7/1484.7|
|SIH4||Silver CMX (Mar 2014)||Oversold fall probes potential support from the late-Jun/early-August base.||19.682||-1.1%||18.6/19.29||23.115|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Breaks the June-Sept floor. RSI low.||1757||-0.9%||1545||1905.75/1803|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Small 'bear trap' recovery struggles near the 50-day MA.||7020||-0.6%||6721/6910||7420/7140|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||S-t decline towards the Sept/Oct floor slows.||2075.5||-1.0%||2026/2037.75||2259.25/2218|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Tests the July floor.||13285||-1.3%||11925/13205||15600/15001|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Ranging near uptrend support at the 50-day MA.||22575||-1.4%||22110/22550||25250/24150|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Renews the s-t fall towards the Sept/Oct floor.||1872.5||-0.7%||1811.75/1855||1966.25/1912|
|FCF4||Feeder Cattle CME (January 2014)||Pauses the s-t downtrend.||165.325||+0.6%||157.175/161.825||166.2|
|LCG4||Live Cattle CME (Feb 14)||Bounces back up into the s-t top.||134.1||+0.8%||129.775/131.25||135.45|
|LHG4||Lean Hogs CME (Feb 14)||Holds the correction from overbought.||90.475||+0.1%||87.675||94.9/92.5|
|C H4||Corn CBT (March 04)||Small recovery falters beneath downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.||426.5||+0.4%||420||449.5/433|
|O H4||Oats CBT (March 14)||Overbought recovery pauses near potential resistance at the 200-day MA.||329.25||-1.8%||306.75/318.75||359/338|
|IJG4||Rapeseed LIFFE (February 14)||Potentially basing between the Jul/Aug floor and 200-day MA.||378.75||+0.1%||357.25/363.25||396.75/385|
|S F4||Soybeans CBT (January 14)||Finds support above the early-Nov floor. Points back to the Aug/Sept peak area.||1320||-0.7%||1247/1268.25||1406|
|SMF4||Soybean Meal CBT (January 2014)||Rallies to the Aug/Sept ceiling, where intraday resistance arrives.||429.6||-0.5%||399.6||446.8|
|BOF4||Soybean Oil CBT (January 2014)||Continues to find resistance at the 50-day MA.||40.25||-0.9%||39.53/40.07||45.48/42.4|
|W Z3||Wheat CBT (December 2013)||Oversold fall from the 200-day MA slows by the Aug/Sept floor.||651.25||+0.7%||635.5||730.75/711.25|
|QKF4||Wheat LIFFE (January 2014)||Range forms beneath the overbought Oct high; at the 200-day MA.||164.75||+0.2%||152.75||169.75|
|CCH4||Cocoa NYBOT (March 2014)||Pauses the uptrend near the contract highs.||2766||-0.1%||2576||2820|
|KCH4||Coffee NYBOT (March 2014)||Small recovery finds downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA with a 'Peak' KDR.||108.1||-0.6%||104.15||121.05/112|
|CTH4||Cotton (March 2014)||Pauses the decline towards sideways support near 75.||78.44||-0.9%||75.56/76.65||85.47/80.52|
|LBF4||Lumber CME (January 2014)||Uptrend towards the early-2013 ceiling pauses. However, potentially developing support at the 50-day MA.||361.2||-0.1%||338/356.9?||390.4/380|
|JOF4||Orange Juice (January 2014)||Holds the rally towards the Sept high.||139.05||+0.1%||116.4/120.15||147.85/142.75|
|SBH4||Sugar NYBOT (March 2004)||Declines within the prior base. RSI oversold.||17.22||-0.5%||16.7||18.45/17.85|
Copyright 2013 by Stockcube Research Ltd.