|Commodities Daily Hotline
25 November 2013 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Recording a 3.5% loss for Friday's session, the NYBOT Coffee contract encountered downtrend resistance near the 50-day moving average, with a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal from 112. The previous recovery from the early-November oversold low at 104.15 has already been partially retraced just on that one session. A short trade is opened, with the stop placed at 120 for the time being.
We note that the LIFFE Coffee instrument has also drawn a bearish key in the vicinity of the 50-day MA.
The LIFFE and NYBOT Sugar issues have both renewed their decline after a short-lived bounce.
In the case of the UK-traded instrument shown here, the price has dropped back to pressure support at the contract low plotted in July at 460.3. The RSI is once again oversold, though a jump past initial resistance at 472.5, preferably on a dynamic, would be required to reaffirm that floor.
The US-traded contract has fallen into the prior base, and would have to climb back over 17.85 in order to remove pressure from that area, which stretches down to 16.70.
Also in the Softs sector, Cotton has renewed its decline from the huge top after a brief pause from oversold. Next chart support is nearby, however; along the sideways area near 75.
In Grains, the Soybean Meal instrument has jumped up to retest resistance at the mid-November high at 429.3. In view of this barrier, we book the profit on the long trade. Another reason for doing so is that the December contract is nearing the end of its lifespan.
The Gasoline rally continued during Friday's trading. That said, the 'thin upper tail' on the last candlestick does indicate intraday resistance arriving at the high, at 274.50. In the out of hours session, this issue was trading at 267.10 a short while ago. This could that mean a 'bull trap' situation could arise following the failed break over 270, with the 260 region as an initial target. The stop on the long held in this contract is at 255.
The Heating Oil issue was changing hands at 299.98. Here, resistance is being met at the October high (306.68).
Crude is the weakest of the Oil trio. Trading at 93.48 a little time ago, there is a danger that the downtrend is reasserting towards the June floor (90.35).
|SMZ3||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2013)||427.8||+4.1%|
|SM1||Soybean Meal CBT 1st Month Continuation||421||+3.8%|
|SM2||Soybean Meal CBT (cont)||412.7||+3.6%|
|S F4||Soybeans CBT (January 14)||1319.5||+2.2%|
|S 1||Soybeans CBT 1st Month Continuation||1319.5||+2.2%|
|KCH4||Coffee NYBOT (March 2014)||107.5||-3.5%|
|KC1||Coffee NYBOT 1st Month Continuation||107.5||-3.5%|
|KC2||Coffee NYBOT (cont)||109.8||-3.4%|
|JPLAT||FTSE/JSE AFRICA PLAT MNG||48.57||-3.2%|
|BCIY||Baltic Capesize Index||2390||-2.3%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|4 Oct 2013||Tin HG LME 3 Months||LMSNDS03||Long||23375||22850||-2.25%||22000|
|18 Oct 2013||Wheat CBT (December 2013)||W Z3||Long||693||649.5||-6.28%||559|
|12 Nov 2013||Palm Oil 1st Mth Continuation||KO1||Long||2599||2642||+1.65%||2420|
|21 Nov 2013||Gasoline RBOB NYME (January 14)||XBF4||Long||270||271.11||+0.41%||255|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|19 Nov 2013||Feeder Cattle CME (January 2014)||FCF4||Short||164||163.5||+0.30%||167|
|22 Nov 2013||Coffee NYBOT (March 2014)||KCH4||Short||107.5||107.5||0.00%||120|
- A short is opened in Coffee (Chart of the Day).
- Profits are booked on long Soybean Meal.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Oversold decline shows a loss of momentum.||275.214||-0.1%||266.78/272.492?||288.712/282.716|
|CLF4||Crude Oil NYME (January 14)||Pauses the downtrend towards the Jun floor.||94.84||-0.6%||90.35||98.96|
|XBF4||Gasoline RBOB NYME (January 14)||S-t rally finds intraday resistance at 274.5.||271.11||-0.3%||249.22/260.35||287.26/283.32|
|HOF4||Heating Oil NYME (January 14)||Recovery tests the Oct high.||303.93||+1.1%||283.51/290.25||316.03/306.68|
|NGF4||Natural Gas NYME (January 14)||Extends the recovery from oversold into supply.||3.811||+1.9%||3.465/3.543||4.125/3.909|
|QZF4||Coal (January 2014)||Reverses back up to resistance near the 200-day MA.||55||+0.0%||52.68/53.94||58.8|
|GCZ3||Gold CMX (Dec 13)||Extends the downtrend to the summer trough.||1244.1||+0.0%||1182.6/1209.4||1375.4/1293.8|
|PAZ3||Palladium NYME (Dec 13)||Retreats from resistance at the June/early-Nov ceiling (771.9).||714.05||+0.1%||692.5||786.4/771.9|
|PLF4||Platinum NYME (January 04)||Retreats from 19 Sept resistance (1484.7); and the 200-day MA towards the Oct floor.||1382.7||-0.6%||1300.3/1361.3||1554.7/1484.7|
|SIZ3||Silver CMX (Dec 2013)||Probes potential support from the late-Jun/early-August base.||19.862||-0.4%||19.145||23.445|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Hovers near the June-Sept floor.||1782||-0.2%||1758/1775.5||1949/1905.75|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Potential failed break beneath the mid-Aug/early-Nov range (bear trap).||7095||+1.1%||6721/6910||7533.75/7420|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||S-t decline towards the Sept/Oct floor slows.||2107||+0.9%||2026/2037.75||2259.25/2218|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Dips under sideways support along 13500. Points to the July floor.||13560||+1.0%||11925/13205||15600/15001|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Ranging near uptrend support at the 50-day MA.||22850||-0.4%||22110/22550||25250/24150|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||Possibly reversing the s-t fall.||1909||+1.1%||1855/1876||2009/1966.25|
|FCF4||Feeder Cattle CME (January 2014)||Breaks support at the 50-day MA leaving a top.||163.5||+0.1%||155.6/157.175||169.95/166.2|
|LCZ3||Live Cattle CME (Dec 13)||Small 'Trough' KDR, but remains beneath the s-t top.||131.475||+0.0%||127.95||134.7/133.5|
|LHZ3||Lean Hogs CME (Dec 13)||Pauses the correction from overbought. Potential failed break under 86 (bear trap).||85.625||-0.7%||81.025||92.3/88.525|
|C Z3||Corn CBT (December 13)||Oversold downtrend towards the 2010 floor shows a loss of momentum.||422.25||-0.2%||401||449.75/438|
|O H4||Oats CBT (March 14)||Gradual recovery from 300 pauses near 12 Sept resistance.||324||+1.4%||300/306.75||359/330|
|IJG4||Rapeseed LIFFE (February 14)||Potentially basing between the Jul/Aug floor and 200-day MA.||378||-0.3%||357.25/363.25||396.75/385|
|S F4||Soybeans CBT (January 14)||Finds support above the early-Nov floor. Points back to the Aug/Sept peak area.||1319.5||+2.2%||1247/1268.25||1406|
|SMZ3||Soybean Meal CBT (December 2013)||Jumps up to retest the mid-Nov high.||427.8||+4.1%||391.8/404.6||451.2/429.3|
|BOZ3||Soybean Oil CBT (December 2013)||Jumps up to probe resistance at the 50-day MA.||41.16||-0.9%||39.2/39.81||45.32/42.12|
|W Z3||Wheat CBT (December 2013)||Oversold fall from the 200-day MA slows by the Aug/Sept floor.||649.5||+0.1%||635.5||730.75/711.25|
|QKF4||Wheat LIFFE (January 2014)||Range forms beneath the overbought Oct high; at the 200-day MA.||164.5||+0.2%||152.75||169.75|
|CCH4||Cocoa NYBOT (March 2014)||Holds the uptrend near the contract highs.||2799||+0.2%||2576||/|
|KCH4||Coffee NYBOT (March 2014)||Small recovery finds downtrend resistance near the 50-day MA with a 'Peak' KDR.||107.5||-3.5%||104.15||121.05/112|
|CTH4||Cotton (March 2014)||Renews the decline after a brief pause from oversold.||77.23||-1.4%||75.29/75.56||85.47/80.52|
|LBF4||Lumber CME (January 2014)||Uptrend towards the early-2013 ceiling pauses. However, potentially developing support at the 50-day MA.||359.6||-0.6%||338/356.9?||390.4/380|
|JOF4||Orange Juice (January 2014)||Holds the rally towards the Sept high.||138.95||+0.2%||116.4/120.15||147.85/142.75|
|SBH4||Sugar NYBOT (March 2004)||Dops into the prior base. RSI low.||17.4||-0.6%||16.7||18.45/17.85|
Copyright 2013 by Stockcube Research Ltd.