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Commodities Daily Hotline
11 May 2015                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Natural Gas renews the recovery

 

The Natural Gas instrument has registered a 5.3% gain for Friday's session.  Having consolidated the initial recovery from the contract low at 2.481; developing support near former resistance at the 50-day moving average during this phase, the price now points towards the March high at 2.982.  After that, the February peak, at 3.096, will become the next target for bulls.

Daily Comment:

 

In the Precious Metals sector, Palladium has resumed its ranging advance in a decisive manner.  We continue to hold a long trade in the contract for the upside potential towards the late-2014/early-2015 highs near 820-833.

In contrast, Industrial Metal, Lead, has recorded a 1.8% loss for Friday's session.  The move through 2076 has also generated a bearish P&F Breakout signal on the automated scanner.  This Candlestick chart displays the price correcting from an overbought condition, heading towards initial support around the 2000 mark.  The long and short-term MAs are located nearby and may also offer a lift.

Also in this sector, Zinc posted a 1% loss before the weekend.  Here, the overbought rally has paused by the 2014 ceiling near 2400.  An eventual breakout will have bulls aiming for the July 2011 peak at 2539.5.

In the Softs grouping, the LIFFE Sugar instrument has produced a bullish signal on the automated P&F scanner.  This follows the move through 378.  The Candlestick chart printed here shows the price extending the ranging recovery from the oversold contract low.  Next resistance is at the February high at 404.8.

We continue to hold a long trade in the NYBOT Sugar contract.  Here, the price rallies from initial support at 12.35 to challenge resistance at the upper side of the short-term base, at 13.50.  A breakout should lead to further gains towards the 15 region.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
NG1Natural Gas NYME 1st Month Continuation2.88+5.3%
NGM5Natural Gas NYME (June 15)2.88+5.3%
NG2Natural Gas NYME (cont)2.928+5.1%
JO1Orange Juice 1st Month Continuation118.9+4.9%
UNGNatural Gas14.13+4.3%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 Months2040-1.8%
QS1Gas Oil IPE 1st Month Continuation595.75-1.7%
HEATHeating Oil15.6-1.5%
QS3Gas Oil IPE (cont)596.75-1.5%
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months2355-1.0%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Commodities Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
27 Apr 2015 Sugar NYBOT (July 2015) SBN5 Long 13.34 13.42 +0.60% 11.8
30 Apr 2015 Cotton (July 2015) CTN5 Long 67.5 66.16 -1.99% 62
5 May 2015 Palladium NYME (Jun 15) PAM5 Long 794.95 802.35 +0.93% 745
Commodities Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
29 Apr 2015 Palm Oil 1st Mth Continuation KO1 Short 2100 2146 -2.19% 2275
  • There are no changes today.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFEDips back into the Jan/early-May base.229.159+1.0% 206.813/211.754242.602/233.531
CLM5Crude Oil NYME (June 15)Advance from the base finds intraday resistance at 62.58.59.39+0.8% 45.93/55.7370.25/60.31
XBM5Gasoline RBOB NYME (June15)Rally from the base finds resistance at the 200-day MA.199.18+0.1% 167.99/187.35228.45/210.5/209.5
HOM5Heating Oil NYME (June 15)Pauses the overbought rally from the base.195.37-0.4% 165.34/184.1219.81/
NGM5Natural Gas NYME (June 15)Renews the recovery from the contract low. Points to the Mar high2.88+5.3% 2.481/2.7113.096/2.982
QZM5Coal (June 15)Retraces to the Jan floor. RSI oversold.46.97-0.3% 46.4252.33
GCM5Gold CMX (Jun 15)Extends the s-t range forming beneath the 200-day MA.1188.9+0.6% 1133.7/1174.11309/1224.5
PAM5Palladium NYME (Jun 15)Renews the advance towards the Mar high.802.35+2.1% 751.6/778.6833.6
PLN5Platinum NYME (July 15)Reaffirms late-Mar support (1114.7) with a 'Trough' KDR on 27 Apr but remains confined by the early-Apr high.1143.5+1.1% 1088.8/1114.71197.1/1188.2
SIN5Silver CMX (July 2015)Ranging between support at the Mar floor and resistance near the 200-day MA.16.465+1.0% 15.31/15.59517.405
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3mOverbought rally stalls. Falls back into the base.1889+0.3% 1704.25/1744.852008/1978.25
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mOverbought rally slows.6387.5-0.2% 5339.5/5560.56835.5/6532.5
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsCorrects from overbought.2040-1.8% 1955/20062307/2259
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 MonthsPossibly reasserting the recovery to the Mar high.14300+1.1% 8850/1220515505/14675
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsTrades over the 'Peak' KDR of 28 Apr (16390) during Wed.15900-0.5% 11900/1360017651
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsPauses by the 2014 ceiling near 2400. RSI overbought.2355-1.0% 1981/2173.52539.5/2416
FCQ5Feeder Cattle CME (August 2015)S-t rally slows on the approach to the early-Apr high (221.45).217.625+0.4% 205.975226.75/221.45
LCM5Live Cattle CME (Jun 15)Ranging above the small early-2015 base.151.5+1.4% 142.6/144.05154.675/152.425
LHM5Lean Hogs CME (Jun 15)Recovery tests the barrier near 85; close to the 200-day MA. RSI overbought.84.825+1.6% 72.05/75.192.5/85.475
C N5Corn CBT (July 15)Reasserts the decline towards the Oct low after a brief bounce from oversold.363+0.4% 346.75/355.75388.5/370
O N5Oats CBT (July 15)Volatile ranging above the oversold and accelerated Apr low.239.5+3.0% 223275.5/247.5
IJQ5Rapeseed LIFFE (August 15)Uptrend struggles at the Apr 2014 high (366).354.25+0.6% 353.75/355372.5/366
S N5Soybeans CBT (July 15)'Bear trap' recovery yields to ranging beneath resistance from the early-Apr high.976.25+0.1% 9491042.75/997.5
SMN5Soybean Meal CBT (July 2015)Retraces the 'bear trap' recovery from the Apr low313.4-0.3% 307.5332/326.6
BON5Soybean Oil CBT (July 2015)Recovery yields to ranging by resistance at the Feb barrier; near the 200-day MA.32.96+1.4% 29.7934.33/33.64
W N5Wheat CBT (July 2015)Ranging quietly near the contract low.481.5+1.9% 460.75?506/488.75
QKX5Wheat LIFFE (November 2015)Pauses the oversold fall. Moves back over the Sept floor (119).119.05-0.7% 117.5?127.75/122.25
CCN5Cocoa NYBOT (July 2015)Ranging beneath the Feb/Mar ceiling.2945+0.5% 2755/28573023/2967
KCN5Coffee NYBOT (July 2015)Holds the decline from resistance at the 50-day MA towards the late-2013 lows.134.65+2.2% 121.15/123/126.4175.15/150
CTN5Cotton (July 2015)Corrects from overbought finding resistance near the Sept high. Potential 'bull trap' towards the Apr low.66.16+1.0% 60.5/62.3570.08/68.5
LBN5Lumber CME (July 2015)Reasserts the downtrend.243-0.8% 238.9289/260.1
JON5Orange Juice (July 2015)Potential base, but struggles near the 50-day MA.118.9+2.4% 106.7129.15
SBN5Sugar NYBOT (July 2015)Tests the highs of the small base.13.42+3.5% 12.03/12.3515.38/13.5


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