|Commodities Daily Hotline
9 April 2014 By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
The Crude Oil instrument initiated a strong recovery after the floor at 91.35 was established in the first half of January. The RSI was displaying an oversold situation at the time. A few weeks later and the indicator was showing an overbought condition. The rally was capped at 104.48 on 3 March. Since then, the contract price has unwound from overbought, and is already on the way back to this year's earlier barrier. If a breakout can be maintained, next chart resistance is at the April 2011 pinnacle at 107.49.
In the Industrial Metals sector, Zinc has extended its recovery from oversold and 'bear trap' counter move (following the failed break under the February low). A downward dynamic would be needed to offset a further rally towards the December - March highs near 2100-2150.
The Rubber instrument has registered a 2.4% loss. The rally from this year's early small base is struggling beneath supply from the much larger top formation, near 255; and the 200-day moving average is also depressing prices. That line has to be crossed in order to remove the risk of a further retracement of the prior recovery.
The Lean Hogs issue has also recorded a 2.4% loss, as it extends the correction from the overbought high. The price is probing potential support from the shorter-term MA. In order to lock in a profit, the stop on the short held in the instrument is lowered to 121.5; placed just over Tuesday's high.
The reactions from overbought by Wheat products have halted, though in the case of the LIFFE Wheat contract, a strong recovery has been launched from 160. Here, prices are racing back to the October - March ceiling at 172.75. The next chart barrier after that is the July 2013 high at 175.5.
Also in the Grains sector, Corn is about to retest resistance at the 3 September 2013 (513) and 1 April highs (512.5). In view of that barrier, we book the profit, 1%, on the long trade.
In the Softs sector, Orange Juice is also challenging prior resistance; at the early-March high at 157.25. The long trade is closed here too, making 1.14%.
The long in NYBOT Coffee is closed with profits, 11.39%. The rally from support at the 'Trough' Key Day Reversal low of 24 March and 50-day MA encountered intraday resistance ('thin upper tail' on the last candle) near March resistance.
|O K4||Oats CBT (May 14)||435||+3.8%|
|O 1||Oats CBT 1st Month Continuation||435||+3.8%|
|XAU||PHLX Gold & Silver Index||95.1996||+2.4%|
|DFK4||Coffee LIFFE (May 2014)||2174||+2.4%|
|DF1||Coffee LIFFE (1st mth Cont)||2174||+2.4%|
|JN1||Rubber TCM 1st Month Continuation||239.6||-2.4%|
|MO1||Carbon Emission (Cont)||4.85||-2.4%|
|MOZ4||Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2014)||4.91||-2.4%|
|LHM4||Lean Hogs CME (LH Jun 2014)||118.75||-2.4%|
|LH2||Lean Hogs CME (cont)||118.125||-2.2%|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|17 Mar 2014||Cocoa NYBOT (May 2014)||CCK4||Long||3027||2992||-1.16%||2850|
|25 Mar 2014||Cotton (May 2014)||CTK4||Long||94.11||91.79||-2.47%||89|
|26 Mar 2014||Feeder Cattle CME (May 2014)||FCK4||Long||179.125||178.875||-0.14%||174|
|Date||Stock||Code||Type||Open Price||Current Price||% P&L||Stop||Comment|
|3 Apr 2014||Lean Hogs CME (LH Jun 2014)||LHM4||Short||123.55||118.75||+3.89%||121.5|
- Profits are booked on long Coffee, Corn and OJ.
- The stop on Lean Hogs is lowered.
|CRY||CRB Index NYFE||Rally from the s-t range lows to the early-Mar high questions top theory.||307.977||+1.2%||279.392/299.222||321.36/311.49/308.375|
|CLK4||Crude Oil NYME (May 14)||Renews the s-t rally towards the early-Mar high.||102.56||+2.1%||97/98.86||107.49/104.48|
|XBK4||Gasoline RBOB NYME (May 14)||'Bear trap' rally back towards the early-Mar, and contract, high.||298.01||+1.8%||278/282.52||304.14|
|HOK4||Heating Oil NYME (May 14)||Rallies from support at the lows of the broad band in force since July towards initial resistance.||293.44||+1.5%||283.93||307/296.07|
|NGK4||Natural Gas NYME (May 14)||Finds support near the sideways area around 4.20. Tests the late-Mar high.||4.534||+1.3%||3.85/4.221||4.893/4.669/4.57|
|QZK4||Coal (May 2014)||Reasserts the rally from the mid-June/mid-Feb trading band/base. Retests initial resistance.||60.47||+0.1%||55.43/58.4||63.6/60.53|
|GCM4||Gold CMX (Jun 14)||Reverses the correction from overbought.||1309.1||+0.8%||1233/1277.4||1431.8/1392.2|
|PAM4||Palladium NYME (Jun 14)||Finds stiff resistance beneath the Mar high. Support at the 50-day MA holds.||775.85||+1.1%||746.3/756.35||802.45/792.85|
|PLN4||Platinum NYME (July 14)||Possibly reasserting the s-t rally towards the Oct-Mar ceiling.||1441.7||+1.0%||1367.6/1395.2||1490.1/1452|
|SIK4||Silver CMX (May 2014)||Fall from the 200-day MA shows a loss of impetus within the late-Nov/early-Feb base.||20.057||+0.8%||18.8/19.575?||23.145/22.215|
|LMAHDS03||Aluminium HG LME 3m||Overbought rally has paused.||1819||+0.1%||1671.25/1704.25||1905.75/1849.25|
|LMCADS03||Copper Grade A LME 3m||Possibly reasserting the recovery from oversold, as intraday support arrives at 6577.5.||6671||-0.1%||6376.25/6577.5||7379.5/7220|
|LMPBDS03||Lead LME 3 Months||Mar recovery from oversold yields to ranging.||2073||+0.4%||1986/2013.25||2230.25/2097|
|LMNIDS03||Nickel LME 3 Months||Holds the rally from the large base. RSI high.||16455||+0.3%||14830/15695||17340|
|LMSNDS03||Tin HG LME 3 Months||Ranging beneath the Oct high.||23205||-0.1%||21724/22450||24000/23650|
|LMZSDS03||Zinc Special HG LME 3 Months||'Bear trap' recovery. Points to the Dec-Mar highs.||2027||+1.2%||1855/1937||2143.5|
|FCK4||Feeder Cattle CME (May 2014)||Pauses the uptrend after a new contract high.||178.875||+0.0%||175.7/176.375||/|
|LCM4||Live Cattle CME (Jun 14)||Uptrend falters.||135.275||+0.3%||132/134.325||139/137.525|
|LHM4||Lean Hogs CME (Jun 14)||Extends the correction from overbought to potential support at the 50-day MA.||118.75||-2.4%||103.45||133.425|
|C K4||Corn CBT (May 14)||Reasserts the advance. About to retest the 3 Sept 2013 high.||507||+1.6%||452/473.25||527.5/513|
|O K4||Oats CBT (May 14)||Counter move tests the downtrend from the early-Mar peak.||435||+3.8%||356.25/386||504.5/460|
|IJK4||Rapeseed LIFFE (May 14)||S-t rally pauses beneath the overbought Mar high.||413.25||+0.5%||386.25/396||429.25/419.75|
|S K4||Soybeans CBT (May 14)||Rally pauses after a new contract high on 2 April.||1482.5||+1.2%||1365.5/1393.25||1496|
|SMK4||Soybean Meal CBT (May 2014)||Pauses the overbought rally after a new contract high with a (small) 'Peak' KDR.||478.1||+0.8%||431/450.2||486|
|BOK4||Soybean Oil CBT (May 2014)||Reasserts the recovery to recent resistance at 42.35.||42.11||+1.6%||37.13/39.85||45.83/45.05/42.35|
|W K4||Wheat CBT (May 2014)||Pauses the correction from overbought.||681||+0.7%||637/658.75||754.25/723.5|
|QKK4||Wheat LIFFE (May 2014)||Strong recovery towards the Oct-Mar ceiling.||167.5||+2.4%||156/160||172.75|
|CCK4||Cocoa NYBOT (May 2014)||Continues to find uptrend support along 2900; near the 50-day MA.||2992||+1.1%||2670/2874||3039|
|KCK4||Coffee NYBOT (May 2014)||Rally from the 24 Mar 'Trough' KDR and 50-day MA approaches the Mar high. Intraday resistance is noted at 202.8||196.5||+1.6%||162.05/166||209.75|
|CTK4||Cotton (May 2014)||Eases back to uptrend support near the 50-day MA.||91.79||+1.3%||86.12/89.84||100.16/97.35|
|LBK4||Lumber CME (May 2014)||Retraces the recovery to the Mar floor, which holds.||328.8||-0.6%||309.9/324.5||366.7/345.8|
|JOK4||Orange Juice (May 2014)||Choppy uprend. Tests the Mar high.||155.5||+0.9%||141.95/146.7||168.9/157.25|
|SBK4||Sugar NYBOT (May 2014)||Ranging beneath resistance near the early-Mar high. Potential top.||17.16||+1.3%||15.57/16.67||19.67/18.47|
Copyright 2014 by Stockcube Research Ltd.