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Commodities Daily Hotline
26 January 2016                             By Cornelia Dichio, Analyst
Chart of the day: Gasoline challenges the lows

 

The small recovery from the oversold contract lows by Oil instruments has faltered.  In the case of Gasoline, a 'Peak' Key Day Reversal from 112.18 was drawn; and the low at 102.4 is under pressure.  The chart pattern is dominated by supply, which should force lower levels.  A short is opened with the stop placed above the last recovery high, at 138, for the moment.

Daily Comment:

 

Also in the Energy sector, the Carbon Emission instrument has recorded a 7.1% loss as the price takes another step downwards.  A move through initial resistance at 6.55 would be required to interrupt the down bias towards next important chart support around 5, the May 2014 floor.  However, we would point out the deeply oversold RSI indicator.

In the Precious Metals sector, Platinum (the subject of yesterday's Chart of the Day section) has generated a bullish P&F Breakout signal at 852 on the automated scanner.  Gaining 3.6%, the price has jumped up to test potential resistance at the 50-day Moving Average.  If that line can be overcome, the next chart target is the sideways area along 900.

Gold, in this grouping, challenges resistance at the early-January high, at 1113.1, after developing support near the upper side of the previous short-term trading band/base.  We will consider purchasing in the event of a sustained breakout (see also hotline for 21 January).

In the Softs sector, NYBOT Sugar has produced a 'Bear' P&F Breakout signal at 14.15.  This less sensitive High/Low graph shows the price easing towards support at the lows of the range, near 14.  That trading band may yet turn out to be an extended consolidation of the initial strong recovery from the August/September floor.

We continue to hold a long trade in the LIFFE Sugar instrument.  The advance has paused again, though the price maintains short-term uptrend support at the 50-day MA.

Also in this sector, we continue to hold a short position in Cocoa.  The bounce from oversold has run out of steam, and it is possible that the downtrend within the November 2014/early-May 2015 base is reasserting.

Gainers / Losers
Top 5 Gains.
SymbolStockClose% Change
PLJ6Platinum NYME (April 16)861.5+3.6%
PL1Platinum NYME 1st Month Continuation859.7+3.6%
PL2Platinum NYME (cont)861.5+3.6%
PLATLondon Spot Platinum858.75+3.3%
PPLTPlatinum82.71+3.1%
Top 5 Losses.
SymbolStockClose% Change
DBOOil7.08-7.8%
MO1Carbon Emission (Cont)5.88-7.1%
MOZ6Carbon Emission IPE (Dec 2016)5.91-7.1%
CL2Crude Oil NYME (cont)31.25-6.7%
HO1Heating Oil NYME 1st Month Continuation93.53-6.1%
 
The Commodities Model Portfolio
Commodities Model Portfolio Longs
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
7 Jan 2016 Sugar White LIFFE (March 2016) QWH6 Long 428.8 421 -1.82% 390
Commodities Model Portfolio Shorts
Date Stock Code Type Open Price Current Price % P&L Target Stop
4 Jan 2016 Wheat CBT (March 2016) W H6 Short 458.25 481.5 -5.07% 510
11 Jan 2016 Coffee NYBOT (March 2016) KCH6 Short 114.45 116.45 -1.75% 123
20 Jan 2016 Cocoa NYBOT (March 2016) CCH6 Short 2850 2819 +1.09% 3050
20 Jan 2016 Lumber CME (March 2016) LBH6 Short 238.4 233.3 +2.14% 256
25 Jan 2016 Gasoline RBOB NYME (March 2016) XBH6 Short 105.25 105.25 0.00% 138
  • A short is opened in Gasoline (Chart of the Day).
  • We watch to buy Gold.

 

Daily Analysis

Symbol Name Comment Close 1 day Support Resistance
CRYCRB Index NYFESmall recovery from oversold stalls. Possibly reasserting the downtrend towards the early-2002 floor.160.459-2.0% 145.46/154.846177.645/163.983
CLH6Crude Oil NYME (March 16)Small recovery from the oversold contract low finds intraday resistance at 32.74.30.34-5.7% 27.5640.18
XBH6Gasoline RBOB NYME (March16)Bounce from the oversold contract low is capped by a 'Peak' KDR.105.25-5.0% 102.4136.17/112.18
HOH6Heating Oil NYME (March 16)Small recovery off the oversold contract low finds intraday resistance at 102.53.95.01-5.7% 86.05126.2
NGH6Natural Gas NYME (March 16)Jan fall shows a minor loss of momentum.2.155+0.7% 1.912.493
QZH6Coal (March 16)Bounce from oversold yields to ranging beneath the Jul ceiling.43.250.00% 42.2844.27
GCG6Gold CMX (Feb 16)Tests the early-Jan high (1113.1) having developed support near the upper side of the prior s-t trading band (base?).1105.3+0.8% 1045.4/1071.11192.1/1113.1
PAH6Palladium NYME (Mar 16)Bounces from the oversold contract low.491.15-1.7% 451.5722.05/574.5
PLJ6Platinum NYME (April 16)'Bear trap' recovery from the contract low. Probes potential resistance at the 50-day MA.861.5+3.6% 811.4899.1
SIH6Silver CMX (March 2016)Retests resistance near the 50-day MA. A breakout would add weight to the base theory.14.254+1.4% 13.63514.64
LMAHDS03Aluminium HG LME 3m'Bull trap' reaction yields to ranging near the Nov low (1432.5).1476-0.4% 1383/1432.51646/1564
LMCADS03Copper Grade A LME 3mFall from the 50-day MA slows near the 14 May 2009 low (4315).4417-0.6% 4158/43155440.5/4750
LMPBDS03Lead LME 3 MonthsSmall recovery struggles near the 50-day MA.1622.5-1.0% 1551.5/15881832/1801/1640
LMNIDS03Nickel LME 3 Months'Bear trap' recovery slows by potential resistance at the 50-day MA.8550-1.7% 6810/810010785/9330
LMSNDS03Tin HG LME 3 MonthsOversold fall reverses.13675-0.1% 11900/1308515200/13985
LMZSDS03Zinc Special HG LME 3 MonthsDowntrend slows.1515+0.3% 1432/1440/1444.51881.5/1642.5
FCH6Feeder Cattle CME (March 2016)Finds support above the Dec contract low. Reverses the s-t decline.157.775-0.1% 141.7/147.775166.875
LCG6Live Cattle CME (Feb 16)Reverses the s-t fall after finding support above the Dec floor.131.425-0.5% 121.975/126.3145.975/137.875
LHJ6Lean Hogs CME (Apr 16)Rally from the base finds some intraday resistance at 69.85. RSI high.68.775-0.3% 59.225/64.574.4
C H6Corn CBT (March 16)Extends the recovery from the contract low towards the Dec ceiling.369.75-0.1% 348.5396.75/382
O H6Oats CBT (March 16)Reasserts the recovery from the oversold contract low.205.25-0.1% 192.5261.5/247.5
IJG6Rapeseed LIFFE (February 16)Pauses the oversold s-t fall towards the Aug spiked low.360+0.1% 340.25/353376.25/361.25
S H6Soybeans CBT (March 16)Extends the m-t range (base?).880.5+0.5% 847911.5
SMH6Soybean Meal CBT (March 2016)Small Jan recovery yields to ranging benetah downtrend resistance at the 50-day MA.272.5+1.5% 263.8284.6/277.2
BOH6Soybean Oil CBT (March 2016)Pullback from the overbought and accelerated early-Dec high reverses.30.44-0.2% 27.25/2932.72
W H6Wheat CBT (March 2016)Trades near downtrend resistance from the 50-day MA.481.5+1.3% 456499.75/484.25?
QKK6Wheat LIFFE (May 2016)Reasserts the decline and tests the contract low.112.30.00% 112?119/116/114.25
CCH6Cocoa NYBOT (March 2016)Possibly reasserting the fall within the Nov/early-May base after a bounce from oversold.2819-1.8% 2650/27553025/2954
KCH6Coffee NYBOT (March 2016)Pauses the downtrend after a new contract low.116.45+0.4% 111.05128.3/116.6
CTH6Cotton (March 2016)Pauses the s-t fall towards the Sept floor.61.6-1.4% 59.45/61.1565.23/62.46
LBH6Lumber CME (March 2016)Extends the s-t fall towards the Sept low.233.3-0.5% 226270.4/252.2
JOH6Orange Juice (March 2016)Oversold fall from the s-t range/top finds intraday support at 113.5; above the Sept/Oct trough.123.95+1.9% 107.65156.85
SBH6Sugar NYBOT (March 2016)Recovery from the Aug/Sept floor yields to ranging. Eases to the pattern lows.14.1-2.2% 13.69/13.9316.64/15.85


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