The view from London
Over in the United Kingdom office, we certainly keep a close eye on the Advisors Sentiment report, and it's interesting to see the same view reflected both in the feedback that we get from subscribers and from broker research and other media.
The concensus for the near-to-medium term certainly favours equities. I was recently invited to participate in the Barclays Capital survey of their clients. This survey, which took in the view of over 2,000 professional investors, brokers etc also showed a high degree of confidence - Here's a quick overview:
- 37% of respondents favoured the equities markets for the best performance in 2011 (34% went for commodities)
- And amongst the equity asset class, emerging markets came out top
- A sustained period of sub-trend growth is the favoured forecast for the US
- From a risk perspective, the Eurozone was seen as the most likely source of trouble, followed by a slowdown in Chinese growth
- In the world of rates and bonds, the respondants thought hikes would be unlikely in 2011
So that's the concensus. Now let's see what will actually happen!
By the way - one sure bet for 2011 is the increase in VAT over here in the UK. Our government is hiking this sales tax to a painful 20%. I guess we can't complain too much, after all we got to bail out the public sector somehow! Anyway, a simple way for UK investors to save a few pounds is to renew ahead of the January 4th deadline. Subscription manager Sarah Barnes will soon be sending out an email with the details.
Finally, I'd like to wish all our readers a happy Christmas and a good New Year. We will be keeping a reduced schedule over the Christmas - New Year period, but we will be producing some longer term reviews and outlooks in our UK, FX, Commo and Index reports.