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The US Advisors Sentiment from Investors Intelligence....
Our US Advisors Sentiment indicator called the market bottom in March to a tee. Sentiment levels were the most oversold since 2003 and, lo and behold, a rally soon followed. Signals this good only come along every few years, but we make sure that the AS Indicator is updated every week.
When the survey was developed by our founder, AW Cohen, he originally expected that the best time to be long the market was when most advisors were bullish. This proved to be far from the case – a majority of advisors and commentators were almost always wrong at market turning points. Quite simply, professional advisors are just as susceptible to market emotions as individual investors – they become far too greedy at the top of trends and far too fearful near the bottom.
We don’t necessarily take a contrarian view to the newsletter writers in our survey. A large part of the time our sentiment readings remain neutral. We consider the norm to be 45% bulls, 35% bears and 20% neutral. However, we do pay attention to extreme readings in both bulls and bears and also to historically significant runs of more bulls than bears. To summarize, advisors are only wrong when you get too many of them start thinking the same thing.
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